© OECD/IEA 2016

The importance of energy balances to estimate greenhouse gas emissions

Aidan Kennedy Senior Energy Statistician IEA Energy Data Centre

Mainstreaming Energy Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Targets and Indicators into Statistical Programmes in Select African Countries Addis Ababa, June 2016

© OECD/IEA 2016

Source: UNFCCC - based on Annex I only countries data for 2012

What sectors drive GHG emissions?

Energy 82%

Agriculture 8%

Waste 3%

CH4 6%

N2O 1%

CO2 93%

Industrial

processes 7%

Generally, energy-related CO2 dominate GHG emissions

© OECD/IEA 2016

Even if the energy sector weight varies across countries….

Always need to consider country circumstances

Source: IEA / EDGAR estimates, 2015

Share of energy in total GHG emissions

0 20 40 60 80 100

World

Africa

Zambia

Togo

South Africa

Nigeria

Morocco

Kenya

Ghana

Botswana

Benin

%

© OECD/IEA 2016

… The emissions from energy are predominantly CO2

Source: IEA CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, 2015

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013

MtC

O2

CO2 emissions from Fuel Combustion

Benin

Botswana

Ethiopia

Ghana

Kenya

Senegal

Togo

Zambia

© OECD/IEA 2016

Why are energy balances relevant to estimate CO2 emissions?

© OECD/IEA 2016

Estimating CO2 emissions using IPCC methodologies: carbon conservation in combustion

MODULE ENERGY

CATEGORY FUEL COMBUSTION ACTIVITIES

CATEGORY CODE 1A (FOR EACH SOURCE CATEGORY)

SHEET CO2, CH4 AND N2O FROM FUEL COMBUSTION BY SOURCE CATEGORY

– TIER 1

Energy consumption CO2

A B C D E

Consumption

(Mass, Volume

or Energy unit)

Conversion

Factor

(TJ/unit)

Consumption

(TJ)

CO2 Emission

Factor

(Kg CO2/TJ)

CO2

emissions

(Gg CO2)

C=(AxB) E=(CxD)

Crude Oil

Natural Gas Liquids

Gasoline

Jet Kerosene

Other Kerosene

Gas/Diesel Oil

Residual Fuel Oil

…

Energy consumption

Calorific values

CO2 emission factors

CO2 Emissions

x x =

Note: all renewables sources - including biofuels- are not emitting (IPCC)

Source: 2006 IPCC Guidelines

© OECD/IEA 2016

Supply

Transformation

Final consumption

CO2 emissions estimates rely on energy balances and underlying energy statistics quality

The importance of accurate energy data and calorific values by product and by sector (three blocks)

Energy sources

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What is an energy balance?

Source: IEA, World Energy Balances, 2015

The overall description of energy supply and use in a country

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Examples of key emissions indicators derived from energy balances

© OECD/IEA 2016

1: Energy supply

Basis for “reference approach” emissions (“top-down”) and quick indicator of overall trends (few data needed)

Sources: IEA World Energy Balances, 2015 IEA CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, 2015

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013

MtC

O2

CO2 Reference Approach - Ethiopia

© OECD/IEA 2016

Carbon intensity of the energy supply

CO2/TPES: How much CO2 for a given unit of energy supply?

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013

Mto

e

Total primary energy supply - Nigeria

Coal

Hydro

Natural Gas

Oil

Biofuels

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013

Mto

e

CO2 emissions - Nigeria

Coal

Natural gas

Oil

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013

19

90

= 1

00

Carbon intensity (CO2/TPES)

CO₂ Fuel Combustion Total primary energy supply CO₂/ TPES

© OECD/IEA 2016

Carbon intensity varies depending on the energy mix

Need accurate supply data for all fuels – including solid biofuels!

Total CO2/TPES Weighted average across supply sources

Source: IEA CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, 2015

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Zambia

Togo

Tanzania

South Africa

Senegal

Nigeria

Namibia

Kenya

Ghana

Gabon

Ethiopia

tCO₂ per TJ

CO₂ / TPES

© OECD/IEA 2016

2: Transformation sector

Need accurate input/output data by product type

(e.g. electricity generation)

Input (e.g. coal)

Output (electricity)

Transforming energy sources

© OECD/IEA 2016

Carbon intensity of electricity (CO2/kWh)

Source: IEA CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, 2015

United Republic of Tanzania

CO2/kWh: how much CO2 per unit of total electricity generated? Total CO2 emissions / total electricity output (including output from non emitting sources)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 2000 2013

TW

h

Electricity generation by fuel

Coal Oil Gas Hydro Other

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013

gCO

2/kW

h

CO2 / kWh of electricity

© OECD/IEA 2016

“carbon intensity of electricity” depends on the electricity mix and on the efficiency of generation

Ethiopia, Zambia

Angola

Togo

World, Africa, Senegal

Need accurate data on amounts of combusted fuels and of electricity generated, by source

More fossil electricity

Less efficient generation

Kenya

© OECD/IEA 2016

3: Final consumption

Basis for “Sectoral approach” (official) emissions estimates (“bottom-up”) – different levels of detail possible

© OECD/IEA 2016

“Demand” indicators: shares by sector

What sectors (and end uses) drive national emissions? The importance of demand side data

37%

18%

39%

5%

2%

Electricity Generation

Industry

Transport

Residential

Other

1%

58%

28%

1% 12%

Electricity Generation

Industry

Transport

Residential

Other

Senegal Zambia

© OECD/IEA 2016

A set of indicators can be computed at sectoral and sub-sectoral level

Source: IEA, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, 2015

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

Benin Congo Côted'Ivoire

Ethiopia Gabon Kenya Mauritius Senegal Togo

t C

O2

/ ca

pit

aResidential CO2 emissions per capita

1990 and 2013

2000

2013

© OECD/IEA 2016

A data quality assessment example: reconciling supply and demand sides

Generally, indicators are a tool to enhance data quality

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013

MtC

O2

CO₂ Emissions from Fuel Combustion -South Africa

Reference Approach (Supply)

Sectoral Approach (Demand)