The Implications of New Brunswick’s Population and Labour Market Forecasts

November 22, 2017

John Calhoun

Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour

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Presentation Outline

• Population and Labour Market Forecasts

• Key Findings

• …So What?

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Population and Labour Market Forecasts

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• Small-Area Population Forecasts for New Brunswick

• New Brunswick Labour Market Outlook 2017-2026

Population and Labour Market Forecasts

• The population forecasts:

– Include sophisticated models, which we own

– Are easy to update with new data

– Are available by several sub-provincial regions, including: • 15 Counties

• 7 Health Regions

• 33 Health Council Community Districts

• 49 Provincial Electoral Districts

• 12 Regional Service Commission Areas

– Can be updated with more sub-provincial regions

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Population and Labour Market Forecasts

• The labour market forecasts:

– Include sophisticated models, which we do not own

– Will be updated as needed, based primarily on changing economic conditions

– Are only available at the provincial level, but provide detailed labour market information by industries and occupations

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Population and Labour Market Forecasts

• The labour market forecasts involve a requirements-based approach

– Current levels of economic activity are expected to be maintained

• As such, the demand for labour (resulting primarily from replacements) will be filled by pulling from the sources of labour supply

• However, in reality this may not occur if New Brunswick struggles to keep and attract people

– Particularly if the population forecasts are accurate

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Variable Net Interprovincial Migration (primarily negative)

Population - Change TH

E O

UTL

OO

K (B

ase

Cas

e S

cen

ario

)

Declining Net Natural Change

Consistently positive Net International Migration

Forecast - Sources of Population Change (2017 to 2026)

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Labour Force TH

E O

UTL

OO

K (B

ase

Cas

e S

cen

ario

)

Forecast - Labour Force Relative to 2017 (2017 to 2026)

Forecast - Selected Labour Force Characteristics (Thousands of Persons) (2017 to 2026)

• Labour Force to shrink

• Employment to increase slightly

• Unemployment to drop substantially

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Job Openings TH

E O

UTL

OO

K (B

ase

Cas

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cen

ario

) • Substantial number of Job Openings (110,564)

Forecast - Labour Market Demand and Supply Additions (2017 to 2026)

Forecast - Job Openings (2017 to 2026)

• New Entrants are the main source of supply (65.5%), followed by Other In-Mobility (21.1%), and Net In-Migration (13.4%)

• Most from Replacement Demand (99.7%)

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Job Openings - Sectors TH

E O

UTL

OO

K (B

ase

Cas

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cen

ario

)

Forecast – Job Openings by Sector (2017 to 2026)

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Job Openings - Occupations TH

E O

UTL

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K (B

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)

Forecast - Job Openings by Broad Occupational Categories (2017 to 2026)

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Job Openings – Occupations (Skill Level)

THE O

UTL

OO

K (B

ase

Cas

e S

cen

ario

) Forecast – Job Openings by Skill Level (2017 to 2026)

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Key Findings

• Relatively poor economic and workforce growth is expected at a provincial level

• Relying on a few major project investments to turn around the economy is an insufficient long-term solution

• Aging population with fewer youth

• Low or negative population growth is expected across most areas of the province

• Urbanization is expected to continue

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Key Findings

• Interprovincial out-migration is unstable and is primarily responsible for low or negative population growth rates

– Particularly in rural areas

• Interprovincial out-migration is closely tied to unemployment in New Brunswick and the economic circumstances of other provinces

– Especially Alberta

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Growth Rate by County

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Growth Rate by County

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5.0%

1.0% 1.9%

0.2%

-0.5%

3.3%

4.6%

5.8% 6.3%

11.6%

5.6% 5.8%

0.8%

12.7%

Canada NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC YT NT NU

2016 Census: Population Change from 2011 to 2016

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Moncton 4.0%

Saint John -2.2%

Fredericton 3.5%

Bathurst -2.6%

Miramichi -2.1%

Campbellton -6.6%

Edmundston -1.2%

2016 Census: Population Change from 2011 to 2016 by CMA / CA

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-13.1%

-15.2%

-13.5%

-1.5%

-9.9%

-1.5%

-8.3%

Bathurst Campbellton Edmundston Fredericton Miramichi Moncton Saint John

% Change in Core Working Age Population by CMA/CA (2011-16)

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28.9%

13.3%

47.5% 45.6%

23.6%

41.1%

10%

30%

50%

70%

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Composition of Working-Age Population by Age Group (New Brunswick)

Ages 15-24 Ages 25-54 Ages 55+

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-1,732 -2,248 -2,324

-1,997 -1,892

-74

-1,042 -1,193

-793 -388

2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016

Net Interprovincial Migration by Age Group (NB)

Ages 18 to 29 All Other Ages*Estimates for 2015/2016 are preliminary

…So What?

• Think about the potential implications regarding: – Health care costs

• In 2014, $6,021 for those age 65 to 69; $8,459 for those 70 to 74; $11,961 for those 75 to 79; and the trend continues to increase

• 1 senior per 2.4 working-age people by 2026, compared to 1 senior per 5 working-age people in 2005

– Growth strategies • Long-term estimates have been provided, but provincial growth

strategies focus on short-term

– Industries and occupations • Impact of demographics on resource-based industries in rural

areas?

• How might this impact rural development?

– How to cope with the reality of a declining population

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$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

<1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+

Age Groups

2014 New Brunswick Total Health Expenditures by Age Groups ($ per capita)

…So What?

• If the forecasts are accurate, then we should embrace the evidence and act accordingly

• Policies and programs should account for these realities, where the likelihood of growth in most regions is low but the potential for growth in urban centres is high

• How could this affect policy development?

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Going Forward

• Continuing to monitor StatsCan releases (including Census releases)

• Updating the Population Forecasts

• Updating the Occupational Forecasts

• Ongoing Analysis/Research on Income Security

• Additional Research with NB-IRDT

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