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8/14/2019 The Impact of Social Models
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THE IMPACT OFSOCIAL MODELS
LUKE WROBLEWSKIIDEA2009 TORONTO, CANADA
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Flickr photo bythreecee
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Flickr photo by bylaurat
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Behavior is a function of social context.
Flickr photo by Renata Deim
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Nobody smokes in church no matter howaddicted. Richard Farson
Flickr photo by stevecadman
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The Power of Context
Small features of context can produce hugedifferences in behavior.
So what is the impact of specific social modelson peoples online behavior?
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Idiots of Ants
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Social Relationships (modeled) Online
No Relationship
Community
GroupsPublic, Semi-public, PrivateSymmetrical/2-way
Asymmetrical/1-wayPermissioned, Blocked
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Do Social Models Affect Contribution?
480% increase in contribution when number ofrelationships increased by 20
NMOAWE
NUMBER OF RELATIONSHIPS
10
No Relationship
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THE WEB
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No Relationship (but both on the Web)
LocationGPS: 10m (outdoors only)WiFi: 50m (now with geolocation api)Cell tower: 100-400m (triangulated)TechnologyDevice: palm, lap, desk, wallOperating SystemBrowser: capabilities availableSettings
Browser History
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A COMMUNITYTHE WEB
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A Community
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A Community (1 to many relationship)
Are users on the same siteCan interact with each otherMessaging and/or collaborationLeave visible traces of behaviorCan manage identity (profile)
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A Community (1 to many relationship)
Source: Questioning Yahoo! Answers, 2007 ACM
Yahoo! Answers user base interacts witheach other as one large community
In a graph of 700k askers and 550Kanswerers
Found one connected component of1.2M nodes
And 1.6Ksmall components of2-3 nodes This indicates most users are connected
through some questions & answers Holds even for geographic categories
(Local business)
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A Community (1 to many relationship)
Source: http://www.lukew.com/ff/entry.asp?448
1.8% of all users write morethan 70% of all Wikipediaarticles
.003%of diggs users areresponsible for 56% of thestories on the sites home page
.o64% creator to consumerration on YouTube
90% of eBays users are notbeing monetized according toestimates
1% Creators 10% Curators 100% Consumers
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A GROUP
THE WEBA COMMUNITY
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A Group
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A Group (1 to many relationship)
A set of people within a communityClearly defined relationshipTopic, relationship, or collaboration basedCan be long-lived or temporaryConvenient communication: one to many
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A Group (1 to many relationship)
Relationship-based Support existing offline & personal relationships Communication is more personal in nature Coordinating events, meetings, etc. Lighter posting volume but more interestTopical Provides information about specific topics Allows members to stay aware/up to date Archives information Higher posting volume, but high noise to signal
ratio
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A Group (1 to many relationship)
Listed & Unlisted Listed: can be found through search or
browse
Unlisted: discovered through an invitationor posted URL
Open, Restricted, or Closed Open: non- members may read and post
messages
Restricted: only members can view/post,but membership is automatically granted
Closed: only members can view/post,moderator must approve membership
Source: Preferential Behavior in Online Groups, 2007 ACM
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A Group (1 to many relationship)
PublicAnyone can view & postSemi-publicAnyone can join, only members can view & postPrivateOnly members can join & post
Source: Preferential Behavior in Online Groups, 2007 ACM
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THE WEBA COMMUNITY
A GROUPA PERSONAL RELATIONSHIP
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A Personal Relationship
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Symmetrical/2-way/connection
Confirmed & controlled by both sidesSharing enabled as part of handshakeWhen either side severs, relationship is goneOften no notification when severedCan be used to mirror real world relationships
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Symmetrical/2-way/connection
10% of users account for30% of production
12% of Facebook usersupdate their status daily
40% of Facebook users haveupdated status in past 7 days
1.89% of page views arecontribution (photos,content, videos, events)
Source: Facebook statistics: http://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics
Comscore Page View data July, 2009
Facebook app data for friend updates (300+ users)
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Asymetrical/1-way/fan/follow
Declared by one-sideEasy to establish (no reciprocal action required)Can maintain privacy control through permissionsSupports multiple relationship structuresOften more public than 2-way relationships
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Asymetrical/1-way/fan/follow
1-way follow A follows B (one direction) B follows A (other direction) A follows B, B follows A (mutual) A nor B follow each otherBlocking A blocks B (cant follow)Private accounts A has private account, allows B
(permissioned follow)
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Asymetrical/1-way/fan/follow
Categorized 1-way Flickr example A can follow B A can optionally mark B as friend,
family, or both
Friend and family categories enablepermissions (restricted photosharing)
B does not have to reciprocaterelationship to see permissionedcontent (unlike a 2-way)
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Asymetrical/1-way/fan/follow
Permissioned 1-way Y! Messenger example A sends B a request B accepts, then A has to accept Once permission is given, there is no
way to revoke it (unlike 2-way)
Can only appear offline or ignore/block them
The two 1-way relationships areindependent
But may be perceived by users as 2-way
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Asymetrical/1-way/fan/follow
Is Following Has a Private
Account
Has Blocked Marked as
Family
Marked as
Friend
User A Yes Yes Yes Yes
User B Yes Yes
User C Yes
User D Yes
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Asymetrical/1-way/fan/follow
Twitter Users 10% of users account for 90%
of production
50% have not updated status inpast 7 days
55% are not following anyone 52% have no followers
Source: Inside Twitter study, Sysomos June 2009
State of the Twittersphere, Hubspot, June 2009
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Social Relationships (modeled) Online
No Relationship
Community
GroupsPublic, Semi-public, PrivateSymmetrical/2-way
Asymmetrical/1-wayPermissioned, Blocked
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Do Social Models Affect Contribution?
2-way vs. 1-way
12% of all Facebook users update their status at leastonce a day (2-way model)
40.5% of Facebook users have updated status inpast 7 days (2-way model)
14.7% of all Twitter users post an update at leastonce a day (1-way model)
49.6% of all Twitter users posted an update in past7 days (1-way model)
Source: Facebook statistics: http://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics
Inside Twitter study, Sysomos June 2009
Facebook app data for friend updates (300+ users)
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Do Social Models Affect Contribution?
2-way vs. 1-way
30% of production comes from 10% of users on atypical (2-way model) social network
90% of production comes from 10% of users onTwitter (1-way model)
Source: Harvard Business Review research by Bill Heil and Mikolaj Piskorski, June 2009
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Do Social Models Affect Contribution?
Community vs. 2-way .0032% page views vs. video uploads on YouTube
worldwide
1.89% page views vs. content contribution (notcounting status updates & comments) on Facebook
worldwide
58,000% more contribution?
Source: Facebook & YouTube site statics and ComScore PVs August 2009
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Do Social Models Affect Contribution?
Top 10% of Twitter users account for 90% of content Top 15% or Wikipedia users account for 90% of content Top 30% of typical social network users users account for 90% of content
Source: Harvard Business Review research by Bill Heil and Mikolaj Piskorski, June 2009
%OFCONTRIBUTION
100%
0%
50%
100%0% 50%% OF USERS
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Do Social Models Affect Contribution?
Yes, but theres more to it1. Relationship limits exist in all models2. Tight knit circles flourish in all models3. Communication activity can reveal tight knit circles that
matter
4. The more attention you get, the more you contribute to apoint
5. 1-way relationships are optimized for broad reach6. But real relationships drive more production7. Creation can be encouraged in other ways
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Relationship limits exist
120average number of friends per useron Facebook in Feb 2009
144 average on Facebook 2004- March2006
92.4% of people on Twitter followlessthan 100 people
148size of stable social networks thehuman brain can manage at its currentsize (Robin Dunbar)
Source: Inside Twitter study, Sysomos June 2009
Primates on Facebook, Economist, Feb 2009
Source: Rhythms of social interaction, HP Labs
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Relationship limits exist
Source: Rhythms of social interaction, HP Labs
State of the Twittersphere, Hubspot, June 2009
NUMBEROFUSERS
NUMBER FOLLOWING
10M
0
1k
1k 010k5k 10 100 1k 10k
NUMBER FRIENDS
100 people or lessfollowed by 92.4% of users
120avg. numberof friends per user
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Tight knit circles flourish
2-3 average clique size on Y! Answers beforesocial relationships were added
4 average people a man messages on Facebook 6 average people a woman messages on Facebook 7average friendss walls a man on Facebook
posts to
10average friendss walls a woman on Facebookposts to 13 average friends for 92% of Twitter users
Source: Questioning Yahoo! Answers, 2007 ACM
Source: Social Networks that Matter: Twitter under the Microscope, January 2009
Primates on Facebook, Economist, Feb 2009
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Tight knit circles flourish
Source: Social Networks that Matter: Twitter under the Microscope, January 2009
90% of a users friends reciprocate attention by beingfriends as well.
RECIPORCALFRIENDS
NUMBER OF FRIENDS
120
0
60
0 12060
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Communication reveals relationships
90%reciprocal relationships on Twitterwhen two sides exchanged at least two@ messages
15.1% of Facebook friends exchangedirect messages
95% accuracy for detecting real friendsusing mobile call logs & location
Source: Social Networks that Matter: Twitter under the Microscope, January 2009
BBC News: Mobile data show friend networks
Rhythms of social interaction, HP Labs
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Communication reveals relationships
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Communication reveals relationships
65 millionactive Facebookmobile users
12 mobile platforms withFacebook applications
23 minutes of use per day spentby Facebook mobile users
Source: Facebook blog, Sept 2009
ComScore Mobile Metrix, July 2009
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More attention, more contribution
3 to 6change in average daily Twitterupdates when get 1,000 followers
10 average daily Twitter updates with1,750 followers
480% increase in questions answered onY! Answers when relationships increased
by 20
Source: Inside Twitter study, Sysomos June 2009
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Less attention, less contribution
Source: Crowdsourcing, Attention, and Productivity September 2008
As contributors approach their last video upload, theaverage previous views exhibited a marked linear decrease
AVERAGEVIEWS
ITH LAST VIDEO UPLOADED
3400
1400
2400
0 10050
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More contribution to a point
When relationships increased by 20, contributionincreased by 480% When relationships increased by 20 again, contribution
dropped by 35%
NMOAWE
NUMBER OF RELATIONSHIPS
50
More contribution to a point
Source: Social Networks that Matter: Twitter under the Microscope, January 2009
Though number of posts increases as followers increase, iteventually saturates
NUMBERPOSTS
NUMBER OF FOLLOWERS
1200
0
600
0 1000500
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1-way relationships optimize for reach
Like topic-based groups, 1-way allows people tostay connected with interests
Only a lightweight subscribe action is required Having followers encourages contribution (see
who likes you!) & builds audience
Though a broadcast format, still enablesconversation
Allows for asymmetrical relationships (5,000followers, 150 following)
Public updates allow information & messages toamplify
Better aligned with celebrities, brands,companies: quantity indicates popularity, orauthority
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1-way relationships optimize for reach
90% of a Facebook pages fanscan be a part of a singleconnected group
15% of all fans arrivedindependently and started theirown chain
These patterns hold for pageswith few thousand fans and thosewith more than 50,000
Source: Gesundheit! Modeling Contagion through Facebook News Feed, May 2009
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Real relationships drive production
0-1-2 effect: probability ofjoining an activity when two friendshave done it is significantly morethan twice the probability of doing it
when only one has done so
Source: Convergence of Social & Technical networks, Communications of the ACM N ov 2008
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Real relationships drive production
Source: Social Networks that Matter: Twitter under the Microscope, January 2009
Total number of posts increases with friends withoutsaturating up to 3,200 posts
NUMBEROFPOSTS
NUMBER OF FRIENDS
3200
0
1600
0 250175
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Tight knit circles flourish
Source: Social Networks that Matter: Twitter under the Microscope, January 2009
Contribution as friends increase does not saturate like itdoes for followers
NUMBEROFPOSTS
NUMBER OF RELATIONSHIPS
3200
0
1600
0 1000500
FOLLOWERS
FRIENDS
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Its not just relationships
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Blogwww.lukew.com/ff/
Twitter@lukewdesign
Thank You!