The impact of Panama Disease on banana trade patterns

Hans-Willem van der Waal, CEO

A word about ourselves… � Leading producer-distributor of sustainable bananas � Owned by 9 fruit producers in Ecuador/Panama/Costa Rica/Peru. � Offices: Panama City and Rotterdam

� Leader in organic bananas � Partner of Wageningen University Panama Disease Project � Chair of Panama Disease Work Group of World Banana Forum

� Yes

� The Banana Song - Yes, we have no bananas today – Silver & Cohen 1923

� Banana shortage due to

Panama Disease destroying the Gros Michel

Panama Disease – What Is It?

� Is also known as Fusarium wilt and is caused by the fungus Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense.

� infects most banana plant varieties including Cavendish, Lady Finger and Ducasse.

� is spread by the movement of infected plant material, infested soil and contaminated water, it can travel 100 km/yr.

� can survive in the soil for as long as 30 to 40 years. � enters the plant roots via the soil and spreads throughout the plant

blocking the vascular tissue. � has external symptoms which include yellowing along the leaf

margins and wilting of older leaves. � has internal symptoms which include reddish-brown or black

streaking in the stem. � cannot be cured or controlled by any known chemical, cultural or

biological means - prevention is the best strategy.

Races

There are different races of the fungus which cause Panama disease, The different races of Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense affect different banana varieties. � Race 1 infects a range of varieties such as Gros Michel, Lady

Finger, Sugar and Ducasse, but not Cavendish. � Race 2 infects cooking bananas like Bluggoe and Blue Java. � Race 3 infects only Heliconia species not bananas. � Race 4 infects most varieties including Cavendish. There are two

important strains of this race:

Race 4

� Tropical race 4 is a serious threat to the Cavendish banana industry. It is called ‘tropical’ race 4 because this strain of the fungus is capable of infecting Cavendish banana varieties growing in tropical conditions. Tropical race 4 has spread rapidly in South East Asiä: – Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia 1990 – Darwin, Australia: 1997 – China 2000 – Philippines 2005 – India 2009 – Mozambique 2013 – Queensland, Australia: 2015

� Subtropical race 4 occurs in subtropical regions and usually only produces symptoms in Cavendish after a period of cold stress..

Damage by TR4 in Sumatra

Asia Banana Export Patterns

Japan

China, mainland

Republic of KoreaUnited Arab Emirates

SingaporeSaudi Arabia

IranChina, Hong Kong SAR

KuwaitNew Zealand

China Macau SAR

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Import Countries

Trade volume (MT)

Export Countries

The Philippines Banana Industry

� Second largest banana exporter in the world (after Ecuador) � 95% of all Asian exports � Typhoon Haiyan destroyed 15,000 ha in 2013. � 2,646,380 MT export production (2012) � Approx. 75,000 ha under export cultivation � 60% large plantation � 40% small and medium contract farmer (1-200 ha) � Small farms are most affected � 3000 ha of farms has been abandoned because of TR4 � 6000 ha affected to various degrees

What will happen to trade patterns?

� The situation in the Philippines will continue to aggravate � Various other countries are affected: China, Taiwan, Malaysia,

Mozambique, Indonesia, etc. � In the Philippines, farms will be closed, moved to other areas,

which will increase the cost of production. It is difficult to predict the development.

� If nothing is done, the development will be like in the 1920s-1950s when the Gros Michel was in the course of the years wiped out.

� Japan, being the largest import market for bananas, is especially affected.

� Latin America is still unaffected, but also at risk. � Trade patterns can change, with more supply from Latin America to

Asia. But Latin America is not risk-free. More contact between L.A. and Asia could even increase the risk of spread.

What is being done?

� A test kit has been developed that allows fast detection of the fungus

� Resistant cultivars are being developed (GCTV219) – but consumer acceptance and economic feasibility are unknown.

� The World Banana Forum has a working Group TR 4 and seeks for $27 million to fund research and development.

� The best way is to prevent contamination and establish strict quarantine and containment protocols.

� FAO World Banana Forum have proposed an action plan � 1. Enhanced awareness and national and regional capacity at all levels � 2: Surveillance, early detection and monitoring approaches and systems � 3: Risk assessments, and plant health-related legislation and phytosanitary practices � 4: Preparedness and prevention through strengthening national and farmer capacities � 5: Disease management strategies to reduce disease impact and pathogen spread � 6: Regional and international interaction, coordination and information sharing

Measures

What is the result?

� The monoculture of Cavendish is very susceptible to TR4 � If an area is affected, the usual practices will no longer work. The

cost of production goes up dramatically. � To stop the disease, it must be prevented: awareness raising is

necessary � Management of the disease is difficult � A “Bananageddon” will probably not happen, as in the 1920s, but

much research needs to be done and funded to formulate answers to the threat. The current thin margins in the trade are not sufficient to cover increased research expenditure. The whole chain (retail/trade/production) has to join forces.

Acknowledgments

� Gus Molina, Bioversity � Gert Kema, Wageningen UR � Miguel Dita, EMBRAPA � Luud Clercx, TASTE/AgroFair

� Further information � www.panamadisease.org