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The Impact of New Technology on the Public Switched Telephone Network
Bob Calaff
Director, Technology Policy
T-Mobile USA
2
T-Mobile Overview
Financials (1Q08) 30.8 Million customers $4.6 Billion in service revenues $690 Million in capex 41,000 cell sites (13,000 UMTS capable)
Key Initiatives MyFaves - 5.5 Million subscribers as of 1Q08 FlexPay - Payment option offering postpaid benefits to credit
challenged consumers without need for a deposit ‘3G’ Service - launched in NYC in May; in 20-25 core markets
by EOY HotSpot @Home - converged Cellular/Wi-Fi service
3
Impacts of New Technology
An inexorable march of a number of interrelated factors Wireless displacement Broadband, including 3G Packet (esp. IP-based) Networks Fixed-Mobile Convergence Miniaturization & Personalization
4
Wireless Services Key components
– Radiofrequency spectrum– Cell sites– Interconnection, backhaul, transport & termination– Numbering resources– Handsets
Takeaway: Wireless service only ‘wireless’ from handset to cell site
Cell
Site
Cell
Site
DS1s
Tandem
DS1s (and sometimes
DS3s)
DS3
MSC
CO
5
Wireless Displacement
Source: Goldman Sachs (May 2008)
One perspective: According to Goldman Sachs, 1Q08 RBOC performance “highlights the decreasing relevance of wireline voice for consumers.”
6
Wireless Broadband
• 3G uptake in the US is accelerating, reflecting global trends
• Data revenues are an increasing part of the revenue mix for US wireless operators
Source: Lehman Brothers, May 2008
7
Wireless Broadband (‘3G’)
HD video streaming Multi-view real time
video streaming Interactive 3D graphics
High-resolution video streaming
Mobile Web 2.0
Virtual reality Context &
Preference-Aware Advanced video
display
SMS, Internet Browsing
GPRS/EDGE
UMTS/ TD-SCDMA
HSPA
LTE/Wi-MAX
IMT-Advanced
~ 200kbps
~ 300kbps to 14 Mbps
~ 10 to 100 Mbps
~ 100 Mbps to 1Gbps
Show Time7:30pm
Song 1
Song 2
Purchase
• Why? Increased data rates mean richer services for consumers
Source: Texas Instruments, 4G Mobile Forum (Oct 07)
8
HotSpot @Home
Home PhoneBroadband phone service for life at home
• Convergence brings GSM service richness and coverage benefits inside the home
9
HotSpot @Home
Mobile solution launched last June
Currently trialing home phone solution in Dallas & Seattle
10
What Can State Regulators Do?
You are doing much already. Intermodal Porting Special Access
Calls to intervene re new technology – considered judgment needed
Why intervene?– Market failure– ‘Essential’ service– Market working, but policymakers disapprove of some
aspect How intervene?
– Refrain, as market forces bringing value to consumers– Industry self regulation– Stakeholder agreement– Ex ante regulation