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The Impact of Hydroclimatic Variations and Change on Water Resources Decision Making and AdaptationCase Study: Sustainable Water Allocation Policy in MaineShaleen JainUniversity of [email protected]
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Collaborators: David Courtemanch, Maine Department of
Environmental ProtectionDavid Hart, Mitchell Center, University of
Maine
Graduate Student: Krista RicuperoPostdoctoral Researcher: Jong-Suk Kim
Recent promulgation of first-in-the-nation statewide streamflow and lake level rules as part of Maine’s Water Quality Standards
Analysis of Implementation: Hydroclimatic Information Needs (Climate-Hydrology-Ecosystems)
Adaptive Policy Consideration: Adequacy in the face of Climate Variability & Change
HUMAN
NATURAL
SUSTAINABILITY CONSIDERATIONS
Community Water Systems
Agriculture
Hydropower
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Maine’s Sustainable Water Allocation Policy Provide Seasonal Aquatic Base Flows [Median Flows during six regulatory seasons] Protection of Aquatic life resources and Water Quality Standards
Endangered Salmon
Reduced Alewife populations
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HYDROCLIMATIC VARIABILITY & CHANGE
HUMAN
FLOW REGULATION
WITHDRAWALS;ALTERED REGIME
NATURAL
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
Maine’s Sustainable Water Allocation Policy Provide Seasonal Aquatic Base Flows [Median Flows during six regulatory seasons] Protection of Aquatic life resources and Water Quality Standards
WATER ALLOCATION POLICY
Hydroclimatic Variability and Change
Identification of climate precursors most relevant to regional hydrologic variability and change Diagnosis of changes in the seasonally-varying aquatic base flow (ABF) and hydrologic extremes On short time scales (seasonal to annual), use of predictive information for adaptive environmental management. On longer time scales, “Given the changing envelope of hydroclimate, is there an expiration date for a certain water allocation rule or flow policy?”
Long-term changes in the streamflow and ABF.
Changes in the seasonal flood frequency: St. John River, Maine
Streamgaging Network (1951-2006)
Six regulatory Seasons: Long-term changes in the flow distributions
Hydroclimatic Extremes
St. John River at Fort Kent, MaineFlood of Record (May 2008)
Emerging Trends in Flood Frequency: St. John River, Maine
Tropical North Hemisphere Circulation pattern
Temperature (Jan-Feb)
Emerging Winter Floods (January-February)
Emerging Flood Frequency Trends (St. John River, Maine):Large-Scale Climate Connections
Seasonal Flood potential (Use of predictive climate information)
Integration of IPCC 4th Assessment results into regional impacts and adaptation work
Changing Flood Frequency: St. John River, Maine
Winter Annual Maxima
Water resources allocation rulemaking to support ecosystem function reflects commitment toward environmental sustainability Research questions derived from stakeholder and information provider contexts have the great potential to inform policy and adaptation efforts Changes diagnosed in the aquatic base flow (that mimics the natural flow regime) Systematic changes in climate and associated hydrologic variations coincide with the water resources operations and planning time horizons, provides an important entry point for climate information into developing risk aversive long-term adaptive management strategies. Ongoing work is seeking to integrate decision models, ecosystems assessment within an integrated Climate-Hydrology-Ecosystems framework Modeling and Characterization of the relative role of surface-groundwater interactions, surface stores, and lan-use changes Changes in floods present a new baseline to scrutinize infrastructure adequacy and response to changing extremes Maine Sustainability Science Initiative: Impacts of Urbanization and Land-use on Social-Ecological Systems Dynamics
Take home messages
North Maine Woods (Fall ‘08)
