Upload
kendall
View
37
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
The Impact of Climate Change on Maple Syrup Production in Ithaca. Presented By Ashley Bell Dr. Thomas Pfaff Spring 2010 Whalen Symposium . Maple Syrup Overview. Sugar maple Found throughout the local region NY produces 362,000 gallons per year 40 liters of sap per 1 liter syrup - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
The Impact of Climate Change on Maple Syrup Production in Ithaca
Presented By Ashley BellDr. Thomas Pfaff
Spring 2010 Whalen Symposium
Maple Syrup OverviewSugar mapleFound throughout the local
regionNY produces 362,000 gallons
per year40 liters of sap per 1 liter
syrupSap flows when nights are
below 30˚F and days are above 36˚F
Image Source: http://www.cnr.vt.edu/dendro/dendrology/fall/biglist_frame.cfm
Climate Change Scenarios
Image source: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/ddc/sres/
A1•Rapid economic growth•Global population increases until midcentury•New and more efficient technology•Emissions increase until 2080
A2•Heterogeneous world•Continuously increasing population•Self reliance and preservation of local identities•Economic development regionally•Slow technology change•Highest emissions in 2100
B1•Sustainable development•Emphasis on global equality•Convergent world•Population peaks midcentury•Introduction of clean energies•Resource efficient technology
B2•Regional sustainability•Emphasis on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability•Continuously increasing population (lower than A2)•Diverse technology change (less rapid than B1)
Current vs. Simulation Emissions
Current CO2 Levels (2010)
826.6 GtC
Project CO2 Levels (2100)
1855.3 GtC
QuestionHow will climate change effect the
maple syrup industry in Ithaca?
MethodsAnalyze observed temperature data from NCAR
Check for optimal start date and sap flow days
Optimal start date – The first day that yields the most sap flow days for that season (Dec-May)
Sap flow day – A day the falls below 30˚F at night and rises above 36˚F during the day
Repeat for simulated data – “current” and “future”Based on the A2 scenario (previous shown CO2 levels)
Extreme Value DistributionMaximum and minimum data – likely to be skewed Similar to normal – not everything is normal!
Density equation – Normal
Density equation – Extreme Value
Three parameters
What is the probability of having a sap flow day?
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1600
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
Day of the year
Prob
abili
ty
Preliminary data suggests highest probability throughout March
How will the start date change?Probability
Start Date50 100 150 200
Start Date
0 .01
0 .02
0 .03
0 .04
0 .05P robab il i ty
Projected Density
Current Density
Current Median: 85 ~ Feb 23
Future Median: 77 ~ Feb 15
In the future we expect to need to start 8 days earlier
What happens to the number of sap flow days?Probability
Number of Sap flow days
No change notably due to climate change (time?)
Mean: 22.9 days
Standard Deviation: 0.9 days
Current Density
What if we start 10 days late?Probability
Number of Sap flow days
Mean (ontime): 22.9 days
Mean (late): 20.1 days
Loss -12.2%
Loss in sap flow days expected to not change in the future!
…20 days late?Probability
Number of Sap flow days
Current Density
Projected Density
Mean (ontime): 22.9 days Mean (10 late): 20.1 days
Mean (20 late): 16.3 daysLoss- 28.8%
Mean future (20 late): 16.1 daysLoss – 29.7%
Minimal change in sap flow days from current model
ConclusionsIn the future we expect,
Earlier start date – 8 days earlierMaximum number of sap flow days for a
season (on time) not to changeLoss of of sap flow days
10 late – remain the same as now in future (Loss of 12.2%)
20 late – minimal differences between now and future (Loss of 28.8%)
Questions?