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Debt Sustainability Analysis in Market Access Countries
The IMF’s New Approach
REZA BAQIRDivision Chief
Debt Policy DivisionStrategy, Policy, and Review Department
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Public debt (in percent of GDP)
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The old DSA
BaselineHistorical scenarioGrowth shock
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4
Risk-based approach
Realism of baseline assumptions
Risks to level and profile of sovereign debt
Stochastic simulations of debt paths
Key changes to the DSA framework
5
Risk-based approach
Realism of baseline assumptions
Basic DSABasic DSA
Lower Scrutiny Higher Scrutiny
Stochastic simulations of debt paths
Risks to level and profile of sovereign debt
6
Text
Public debt level
Public gross financing needs
Exceptional access
Risk-based approach
Lower Scrutiny Higher Scrutiny
> 50% of GDP for EMs> 60% of GDP for AEs>10% of GDP for EMs>15% of GDP for AEs
None of the above
Any of the above
7
Indicators AEs EMs3-year cumulative primary balance adjustment (percent of GDP) 2 2Coefficient of variation of growth 1 1Bond yield spreads or EMBI global spreads (basis points) 600 600External financing requirements (percent of GDP) 25 15Public debt held by non-residents (share of total) 45 45Public debt in foreign-currency (share of total) n.a. 60
Annual change in the share of short-term public debt atoriginal maturity 1.5 1.0
Constrained discretion: final determination informed by staff judgment
Lower Scrutiny Higher Scrutiny
8
Lower Scrutiny
Basic DSA:
- Baseline scenario- Alternative scenarios
and where relevant:contingent liabilities and
customized scenarios
Basic DSA
Requirements for
Countries
9
Text
Indicators and Debt DynamicsBasic DSA
Lower ScrutinyRequirements for
Countries
10
Text
Scenarios and Debt StructureBasic DSA
Lower ScrutinyRequirements for
Countries
11
Realism of baseline assumptions
Stochastic simulations of debt paths
Requirements for
CountriesHigher Scrutiny
Basic DSA
Risks to level and profile of sovereign debt
12
…to help identify potential optimism
Forecast track record
Boom-bust analysis
Projected fiscal adjustment
Cross-country tools to assess...
13
Forecast track record
Projected fiscal adjustment
Boom-bust analysis
14
Forecast track record
15
Forecast track record
16
Projected fiscal adjustment
17
Debt level
Gross financing needs
Debt Profile
Heat mapRisks to debt level and debt profile
18
Risks to debt levelBenchmarks
19
20
Risks to debt levelStress tests
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Also look at:
5-year average growth in nominal house prices 7.5%
Shock of 10 percent of financial system assets
One standard-deviation shock to growth
Primary balance deteriorates, interest rate increases, inflation decreases
Financial sector CL shock
Other CLs: natural disasters, PPPs, SOEs
Relevant for countries with financial sector vulnerabilities
Triggers AEs EMsPrivate sector credit-to-GDP (3-year cumulative level change)
30% 15%
Loan-to-deposit ratio 1.5 1.5
Risks to debt levelContingent liabilities
22
Debt level
Gross financing needs
Debt Profile
Heat mapRisks to debt level and debt profile
23
External Financing
RequirementEMBI
in percent of GDPin basis points
Annual Change in Short-Term
Public Debt
Public Debt held by Non-
Residents
Public Debt in Foreign Currency
in percent of total in percent of total in percent of total
Risks to debt profile
24
Fan charts
Baseline
10th
90th
75th
25th
Percentiles:
25
Fan charts
26
Limit positive primary balance shock
Fan charts
27
factors that amplify risksfactors that mitigate risks
Country-specific judgement
DSA write-up
28
New DSA chartpack (1)
29
New DSA chartpack (2)
30
31
New Public MAC DSA: Chart Package for Higher Scrutiny Countries, page 3
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Debt Sustainability Analysis in Market Access Countries
The IMF’s New Approach
REZA BAQIRDivision Chief
Debt Policy DivisionStrategy, Policy, and Review Department
33
