The Humboldt County Economy in 2009

By Erick Eschker

Presented to Eureka Old Town

Rotary Club

December 2, 2008

The Humboldt County Economy in 2009

By Erick Eschker

Department of Economics

Humboldt State University

Humboldt Economic Index

www.humboldt.edu/~indexhum

Humboldt Economic Index Sponsors

Six Sectors and Composite

• Energy

• Lumber-based manufacturing

• Employment

• Hospitality

• Retail

• Housing

• Composite

Gas Prices are down, and will stay lower as the Recession continues

County Unemployment Rates 3rd highest since Jan. 1994

Employment has started to fall

• Biggest drops in Construction and Financial Services (included real estate agents and lenders)

Leading Indicators:Claims for Unemployment Insurance

Help Wanted

Housing Sales

Housing Prices

Foreclosures

• Foreclosures in Humboldt County have gone from record lows to record highs

How far does Housing have to fall?

Inflation Adjusted Prices slowly falling

Price to Rent ratio falling

Overall Economic Activity is down this year

National News

• Recession officially started December, 2007

• Exports slowing due to recessions abroad

• Record or near record lows on US Treasury Bonds (flight to safety)

• Credit Crunch (credit cards and other lending)

State News

• Budget Crisis

• $11.2bil Deficit

• Governor calls for decreased spending on CSU, CalWorks, Medical and increased employer unemployment contributions

Uncertainty for Humboldt County

• How bad will national recession be?

• When will credit markets stabilize?

• Effect of past and future Bailouts/Stimulus packages

• Will state employment be cut significantly?

The Humboldt County Economy in 2009

By Erick Eschker

Department of Economics

Humboldt State University

Humboldt Economic Index

www.humboldt.edu/~indexhum