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• The History of the Future
• The present and how we got here
• Some clues about thriving in the 21 st century
www.internationalfuturesforum.com
www.afternow.org.uk
“The art of prophecy is very difficult especially with respect to the future”
Mark Twain
Learning
“Brain work will cause women to go bald”Prof Hans Friedenthal 1914
Entertainment
“Speaking movies are impossible. When a century has passed, all thought of so-called speaking movies will have been abandoned”
D.W. Griffith
Hollywood Producer
Work
“By 1960, Work will be limited to three hours a day”
John Langdon-Davies
1936
Communications Technology
“We are not going to make personal computers. There is a market for only five of them worldwide”
Thos Watson IBM, 1956
“An amazing invention, but who would ever want to use one of them”
President Hayes to AG Bell, 1876
“One day there will be one of them in every City”
Chicago 1873
Transport
“ The improvement in city conditions by the general adoption of the motor car can hardly be overestimated. Streets clean, dustless and odourless, with light rubber-tyred vehicles moving swiftly and noiselessly over their smooth expanse….”
Scientific American 1899
Cars moving swiftly and noiselessly
Surgery
“The abolition of pain in surgery is a chimera. It is absurd to go on seeking it today. Knife and pain are two words in surgery that must forever be associated in the patient’s awareness”
Dr. Alfred Velpeau
1839, seven years before the intro
of anaesthesia
Health
“A child born in the year 2000 has a good chance of not dying at all”
Jaques Bergier, 1968
Health
“We just won’t have arthritis in the year 2000”
Dr William Clark,
President of the Arthritis
Foundation, 1966
Co-Creating Our Future
The future is not some place we are going, but one we are creating.
The paths to it are not found but made, and the activity of making them changes both the maker and the destination.
John SchaarScience Advisor
President Richard Nixon
Foresight Canada
Develop a future consciousnessto inform the present
www.internationalfuturesforum.com
How did we get here?
1750
2050
20501800 1900 1950 2000
1800
1900
1950
2000
Enlightenment
MaterialismModernism
Three broad idea waves, four broad Public Health policy waves
Costing an arm and a leg
For how long?
Cost of NHS
time
one armOne leg
Two armsone leg
two armstwo legs
actual
envisaged
Desired?
The (really) big picture
www.internationalfuturesforum.com
Sou
rce: T
he G
uard
ian
, sum
mer 2
00
7
www.internationalfuturesforum.com
“If you read only one book this year about the end of civilisation, let this be it.”
Quill and Quire
External world changes
Internal world must catch up
Alignment Dislocated
The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born;
in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear.
…A Change of Age….
Zinn
Join all the dotsFour linesNo lifting pencilNo retracing steps
1. the “globalization” of everyday life
• Cognitive• Spatial• Temporal• Materialism• Individualism• Consumerism
DETERRITORIALISATION
Kickbusch
Political determinants……
1. The redirection of global health functions from interstate mechanisms to a growing but fragmented group of actors
From the center…..
Kickbusch
…..to a fragmented POLITICAL ECOSYSTEM
BONO
CLINTON
MSF
WEF PHAWorld Bank
Kickbusch
Healthscapes: Food – Drink - Obesity
Kickbusch
(O’Hara)
Control
HomogenisationAbstraction
FragmentationAlienation
Participation
Diversity
Inclusion
Fear
Love
Disappointmentand fear
Hopeand play
Participation
Giving & Receiving
ExplorationImaginationParticipationQualitative
Control
Production & Consumption
DataPredictionQuantative
Some characteristics of 5w system?
• Integrative internal external, objective/subjective
• Ecological systems and wholeness, social and human
• Ethical individual human rights integrated with collective dimensions of equity , trust
• Creative to imagine and then create something better
• Beautiful raises spirits, sustains moves to act
Centre for Medical HumanitiesCentre for Medical Humanities
Emergent qualities of a ‘fifth wave’
1. Complex adaptive systems with multiple points of equilibrium
2. Rebalancing our mindset – ‘anti’ to ‘pro’, from dominion and independence to interdependence and co-operation
3. Rebalance models – mechanistic to organic
4. Rebalance our orientation – objective to subjective
5. Develop a future consciousness to inform the present
6. Iterate and scale up through learning – try things out and share. Hanlon, et al, 2011
Co-creating HealthCentre for Integrative Care Glasgow
• Presence
• The Dance
• Mobilising (Inner) Resources
Secondary care, primary care, community
More dots?
No. of dots No of possible links No of possible patterns
4 6 64
10 45 3.5 trillion
(9 zeros)
12 64 4.5 quadrillion
(12 zeros)
Why do we always learn about Geology
the day after an earthquake
Ralph Waldo Emerson
www.iffpraxis.com
time
Prevalence/success
H1H2
H3
Three Horizons
www.internationalfuturesforum.com
Twilight Transitional Transformed
Variant 1: Collapse and Recovery
In this variant the supremacy of the Horizon 1 paradigm creates runaway success but at the expense of some critical condition. Failure to capture coupled with weaker innovation in Horizon 2 leads to sudden collapse. Horizon 2 is unable to make up for this.
In the background Horizon 3 continues to develop and after the initial upset and chaos of the collapse demonstrates its ability to match the new conditions and emerges as the next viable paradigm.
PREVALENCE
TIME
H1
H2
H3
Variant 2: Capture and Extension
Horizon 1 is challenged by changing conditions and there is strong innovation opportunity taken by Horizon 2. However, each wave of innovation is captured by Horzon 1 and applied to extend its life. This may go on for several cycles.
Horizon 3 remains in the background since it is so different from Horizon 1 that there is no place for it in the mainstream. It continues to languish in the margins until a much larger and long term change occurs.
PREVALENCE
TIME
H1
H2
H3
time
prevalence Three Horizons
www.internationalfuturesforum.com
H1 concerns H2 innovations H3 aspirations
H3 in the present
Stop
Keep
Twilight Transition Transformed