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The Health Effects of Diesel: Global Burdens, Local Impacts… …and Hope for the Future. Dan Greenbaum, President Health Effects Institute Mexico July 24, 2013. Trusted Science ● Cleaner Air ● Better Health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2010). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The Health Effects of Diesel:Global Burdens, Local Impacts…
…and Hope for the Future
Dan Greenbaum, PresidentHealth Effects Institute
MexicoJuly 24, 2013
Trusted Science ● Cleaner Air ● Better Health
The Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2010)
• A systematic scientific effort to measure the magnitude of health loss from disease and injuries in 187 countries around the world from 1990 to 2010
• Analyzed risk factors associated with disease such as smoking, diet, high blood pressure, air pollution, overweight
• Newest version published in December, 2012 special triple issue of The Lancet
• HEI led outdoor air pollution analysis
http://www.thelancet.com/themed/global-burden-of disease
Trusted Science ● Cleaner Air ● Better Health
GBD 2010 Air Pollution Analysis:Focused on Particulate Matter (PM)• High levels of PM (> 500 g/m3) known to cause premature death
• e.g. London 1952• Many studies in US, Europe, have
found association of PM with mortality at much lower levels • No evidence of a “threshold” (safe level)
• Key new information: • Increasing local studies in Asia,
Latin America confirm local effects
London at Noon, December 1952
Trusted Science ● Cleaner Air ● Better Health
Latin America in a Global Context (Worldwide results on Daily Changes in PM10 and Daily Mortality)
Incr
ease
in M
orta
lity
(%)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
6 U
.S. c
ities
(PM
2.5)
(Kle
mm
and
Mas
on 2
003)
9 C
alifo
rnia
n ci
ties
(PM
2.5)
(Ost
ro e
t al.
2006
)
10 U
.S c
ities
(PM
10)
(Sch
war
tz 2
000,
Sch
war
tz a
nd C
oull
2003
)
14 U
.S c
ities
, cas
e-cr
osso
ver (
PM
10)
(Sch
war
tz 2
004) PA
PA
Com
bine
d A
naly
sis,
4 A
sian
Citi
es (P
M10
) (W
ong
et a
l. 20
08)
AP
HE
NA
, 12
Can
adia
n ci
ties
(PM
10)
(Kat
souy
anni
et a
l. 20
09)
AP
HE
NA
, 22
Eur
opea
n ci
ties
(PM
10)
(Kat
souy
anni
et a
l. 20
09)
Per 10 g/m3 increase in PM
AP
HE
NA
, 90
U.S
. citi
es (P
M10
)(K
atso
uyan
ni e
t al.
2009
)
ESC
ALA,
9 L
atin
Am
eric
an c
ities
(PM
10)
(Rom
ieu
et a
l. 20
11)
ESCALA-Estudio de Salud y Contaminación del Aire en
Latinoamérica (HEI Study in 9 Cities in Brazil,
Mexico, Chile)
The effects of air pollution in Latin America are very similar to those
around the world …
New GBD 2010 Results:
(Based on local and global studies of PM Effects)
Significant Effects in Mexico:
13,600 Premature deaths320,000 Healthy Years of
Life Lost (DALYs)
http://www.thelancet.com/themed/global-burden-of disease
A Major Source of PM (…AND Black Carbon):Old Diesel
• Primary health concern: effects on the heart from exposure to PM from older diesel
• Significant effects on mortality, life expectancy • Strong evidence of respiratory effects:
• reduced lung function, respiratory irritation, asthma exacerbation
• New: IARC (WHO) Review of diesel carcinogenicity June 2012
• Diesel now classified as a “Known Human Carcinogen”
• Exposure to old diesel pervasive in developing countries
New Diesel: Hope for the futureHEI Tests: New Diesel Technology* vs. Old Diesel
(*Requires ultralow sulfur diesel, particle filters)
Dramatic Reductions- 98% reduction in mass
- 90% - 99% reduction in Ultrafines
- Substantial reduction in carbon
- Most cancer-causing chemicals now below “limits of detection”
Source: Khalek 2011
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