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The Green Cockpit
Decision support for realising sustainable public transport
Significant B.V.
EMTA 19 april 2013
Paul van HooffKoen Idzenga
2
About us
Significant• Formerly part of Pricewaterhouse Coopers – in 2003 management buy
out• Currently about 50 researchers and consultants• Different markets:
» Healthcare» Mobility – public transport» Security and Justice» Social affairs» Business management public sector
Koen IdzengaManaging Consultant MobilityPublic Transport tendersClient-supplier relationshipFanatic field hockey player (but low
level…)
Paul van HooffManaging Consultant System
DynamicsModeler of Green Cockpit Model BuildingPart-time geography teacher
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Background of the Green CockpitOriginally developed for the Arnhem Nijmegen City Region
To support the tender of the Public Transport concession (10 years contract 2012 - 2022)
Calculates ‘best ratio’ between environmental quality and costs for Public Transport Authority (PTA)
Step by step development with focus on regional issues
How can we translate (political) goals to realistic requirements for the buses in Arnhem Nijmegen City Region?
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Many questions, opinions and uncertainties
Biogas
Electrical
Diesel
Hydrogen
Technical
Price developmen
t
Functional or technical specification
s
Commercial interests of operators
Future number of passengers
Political wishes
Tank to wheel/ well
to wheel
Context
Tender strategy
Availability
Budget
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The Green Cockpit ……
...Helps PTAs to get a better understanding of the costs involved» Buses, fuel consumption, infrastructure etc
...Shows the development in (environmental) costs for each year in each scenario (Total Cost of Ownership - TCO)
...Enables PTA’s to compare different scenarios of different bus types
...Can deal with ranges in values in case of uncertainties (sensitivity analysis, what if...)
...Helps PTAs to optimize their greening transition in time
...Is the beginning of the discussion about sustainability in public transport (support of your decision).
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Some modelling conventions
“If a future value of a variable is uncertain, you can decide not to model it,
but then you’re sure that the results aren’t correct”
“Leaving out a variable that is difficult to estimate, is like giving it the only value that it
doesn’t have: zero”.
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Process & stakeholder management and creating support
The Green Cockpit – an overview
Calculation Module (System Dynamics)
Characteristics techniques
Characteristics concession
Physical quantities
Characteristics bus fleet
Feedback & optimization
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Settings in the Green Cockpit
Fuel consumptionRange per fuel typeFuelling or charging timeReliability
Characteristics techniques
Characteristics concession
Physical quantitiesCharacteristics
bus fleet
Emission per fuel type (Well to Wheel) such as CO2, NOx and PM10
Shadow prices for each emission type (health, plants and buildings)
Time-tableRoute lengthNumber of routesRoute characteristics (city / region)
Number of buses in city and regionPrices of busesMaintenance costsAdditional infrastructure e.g. charging & filling stations
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Importance of the process
Interests of departments (mobility, environment, economics, finance)
Dealing with lack of reliable data
Interests of operators and vehicle industry
Which data are correct and which are not? → sanity check» Data about (real) fuel consumption» Development of prices
Which risks can a PTA manage and which not?» Fuel prices?» Reliability of techniques
Technical but also a political fieldProces& stakeholder management and creating support
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Results
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For different buses in the fleet: costs
Total costs
Fuel costsDepreciationMaintenance
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Different environmental outcomes
CO2PM10NOx
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Some technical details of Vensim
• Software for building System Dynamics Models
• Powerful ‘engine’:» checks the dimensional integrity» sensitivity analysis (e.g. Monte Carlo)
• Graphical representation of the model
• Interface with MS-Excel» Input in Excel: data can be changed for
different scenarios» Output in Excel
Any questions?
Paul van Hooff Koen Idzenga
[email protected]@significant.nl+31 6 4403 0083 +31 6 5361 9950
Significant B.V.Thorbeckelaan 913771 ED BarneveldThe NetherlandsTelephone: +31 342 40 52 40
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