The Granite State Poll - cola.unh.edu · PDF fileSean P. McKinley, M.A ... 23% 23% 30% Plan on Vo ng for Trump or Other Republican Candidate? Vote For Trump Vote For Other Candidate

TheGraniteStatePoll

February 15, 2018

BIDEN & SANDERS LEAD DEMOCRATIC FIELD; GOP PRIMARY VOTERS RALLY AROUND TRUMP

By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. [email protected] Zachary S. Azem, M.A. 603-862-2226 Sean P. McKinley, M.A. cola.unh.edu/survey-center

DURHAM, NH – Two years away from the 2020 New Hampshire presidenal primary, most Democrac primary voters are sll trying tomake up their minds on which candidate to support, but Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren remain the earlyfrontrunners. Aer receiving the second most support last October, Biden has now taken the lead over Sanders. Most Republicans aresll trying to decide whom to support, but six in ten say they plan to vote for Trump in the 2020 primary, an increase since October andcomparable to the proporon of Democrats who planned on vong for Barack Obama in February 2010. Interest in the 2020 primaryhas increased since October and is considerably greater than at this point in the last two electoral cycles.

These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll*, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Five hundredand twenty-three (523) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between January28 and February 10, 2018. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.3 percent. Included in the sample were 157 likely 2020Republican Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 7.8 percent) and 219 likely 2020 Democrac Primary voters (margin of samplingerror +/- 6.6 percent).

Interest in 2020 New Hampshire Presidenal Primary

With about two years unl the 2020 New Hampshire presidenal primary, more than half of Granite Staters (55%) say they areextremely interested in the primary, while just under a quarter (24%) are very interested, 13% are somewhat interested, and 7% are notvery interested. Interest in the 2020 primary has increased since last October (47% extremely interested) and is higher than in February2014 and February 2010, the last two similar points in the presidenal electoral cycle.

Democrats (63%) and Republicans (59%) are nearly equally likely to say they are extremely interested but only 40% of Independentsagree.

* We ask that this copyrighted informaon be referred to as the Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

Feb 2010 Feb 2014 Feb 2018

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

40%

33% 34%

51%

38% 38%

30%

44%

55%

63%

40%

59%

Extremely Interested in Primary

OVERALL Democrat Independent Republican

2020 Democrac Primary

The vast majority of New Hampshire Democrac primary voters (87%) say they are sll trying to decide whom they will support in 2020.However, slightly fewer respondents than in October (94%) say they are sll trying to decide, as 5% say they have definitely decided ona candidate and 8% are leaning towards someone.

October 2017 February 2018

Still Trying To Decide Leaning TowardsSomeone

Definitely Decided Still Trying To Decide Leaning TowardsSomeone

Definitely Decided

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% 94%

4% 2%

87%

8%5%

Definitely Decided on Candidate - Democrac Primary Voters

Feb 2010 Feb 2014 Feb 2018

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

79% 81%

74%

81% 79% 81% 80% 78% 76%81%

58%

87%

Will Definitely Vote in Primary - By Party ID

OVERALL Democrat Independent Republican

While respondents say they are more interested in the presidenal primary than at the same point in previous electoral cycles, slightlyfewer respondents overall currently say they will definitely vote in the 2020 New Hampshire presidenal primary compared to previousyears.

Most Democrats (81%) and Republicans (87%) say they will definitely vote in the primary but only 58% Independents (58%) say they willdefinitely cast a primary ballot. This marks a departure from the same point in earlier electoral cycles, when Independents were aboutas likely as Democrats and Republicans to say they would definitely vote in the forthcoming presidenal primary.

Tulsi Gabbard

Steve Marchand

Seth Moulton

Oprah Winfrey

Michelle Obama

Maggie Hassan

Kirsten Gillibrand

Joseph Kennedy III

Jeanne Shaheen

Chuck Schumer

Bill GatesBill Clinton

Adam SchiffMark Zuckerberg

Kamala Harris

Cory Booker

Hillary Clinton Joe BidenElizabeth Warren

Bernie Sanders

Preferred Democrac 2020 Presidenal Nominaon Candidate - Open-ended

October 2017 February 2018

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Joe Biden

Bernie Sanders

Elizabeth Warren

Cory Booker

Kirsten Gillibrand

Kamala Harris

Martin O'Malley

Amy Klobuchar

John Delaney

John Hickenlooper

Tim Ryan

Other

Undecided 11%

5%

1%

2%

0%

1%

3%

1%

1%

6%

13%

31%

24%

15%

4%

0%

0%

1%

1%

2%

3%

15%

24%

35%

Preferred Democrac 2020 Presidenal Nominaon Candidate - List

When provided with a list of potenal candidates to choose from for the 2020 Democrac presidenal nominaon, 35% of likelyDemocrac primary voters choose former Vice President Joe Biden, 24% choose the 2016 NH Democrac Primary winner, VermontSenator Bernie Sanders, and 15% select Massachuses Senator Elizabeth Warren. Fewer likely voters choose Cory Booker (3%), KirstenGillibrand (2%), Kamala Harris (1%), Marn O'Malley (1%), Amy Klobuchar (<1%), or John Delaney (<1%). Four percent of respondentsmenoned another candidate while 15% remain undecided.

Support for Biden (35%) has increased since October 2017 (24%) while slightly fewer respondents support Sanders (24% in February2018, 31% in October 2017) and support for Warren is largely unchanged (15% in February 2018, 13% in October 2017). LikelyDemocrac primary voters who live in the Manchester Area are more likely than others to support Biden, those who did not vote in2016, those with a high school educaon or less, and self-idenfied Independents are more likely to support Sanders, and Seacoastresidents are more likely to support Warren.

Most Democrac primary voters (59%) remain undecided or cannot provide a name when asked an open-ended queson about whomthey would support. Democrac primary voters most frequently menon Bernie Sanders (10%), Joe Biden (8%), Michelle Obama (3%),Elizabeth Warren (3%), Joseph Kennedy III (3%), and Cory Booker (3%). Results were quite similar to those in October 2017.

2020 Republican Primary

Three in ten Republican primary voters say they have definitely decided whom they will support for the 2020 Republican presidenalprimary, a significant increase since October 2017 (18%). Eight percent of Republican primary voters say they are leaning towardsomeone while 63% are sll trying to decide.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

October 2017

February 2018 30%

18%

8%

5%

63%

77%

Definitely Decided on Candidate - Republican Primary Voters

Definitely Decided Leaning Towards Someone Still Trying To Decide

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

October2009

Vote for Obama

Vote For Other Candidate

DK/Not Sure

February2010

Vote for Obama


DK/Not Sure

October2017

Vote For Trump


DK/Not Sure

February2018

Vote For Trump


DK/Not Sure

30%

5%

64%

36%

8%

56%

30%

23%

47%

23%

18%

60%

Plan on Vong for Incumbent President in Primary

Last October, Trump had considerably weaker support among Republican primary voters than President Obama did among Democratsat the same point in the electoral cycle; 47% of Republicans planned to vote for Trump in October 2017 while 64% of Democratsplanned to vote for Obama in October of 2009. However, support for Trump in the 2020 Republican presidenal primary has increased;60% of Republican primary voters now say they plan to vote for Trump, a similar level of support to what Obama enjoyed (56%) at thesame point in his presidency.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

October 2017

February 2018 60%

47%

18%

23%

23%

30%

Plan on Vong for Trump or Other Republican Candidate?

Vote For Trump Vote For Other Candidate DK/Not Sure

Six in ten likely Republican primary voters say they plan on vong for Donald Trump in the 2020 New Hampshire Republican Presidenalprimary. Eighteen percent say they plan on vong for another candidate, while nearly a quarter (23%) don't know or are unsure.

Likely Republican primary voters who listen to conservave talk radio and self-described conservaves are more likely than others tosay they plan on vong for Trump in the 2020 Republican primary while Republican primary voters who describe themselves asmoderates are more likely to say they plan on vong for another candidate.

Granite State Poll MethodologyThese findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Five hundredand twenty-three (523) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between January28 and February 10, 2018. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.3 percent. Included in the sample were 157 likely 2020Republican Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 7.8 percent) and 219 likely 2020 Democrac Primary voters (margin of samplingerror +/- 6.6 percent). The design effect for the survey is 1.3%.

The random sample used in the Granite State Poll was purchased from Markeng Systems Group (MSG), Horsham, PA. MSG screenseach selected telephone number to eliminate non-working numbers, disconnected numbers, and business numbers to improve theefficiency of the sample, reducing the amount of me interviewers spend calling non-usable numbers. When a landline number isreached, the interviewer randomly selects a member of the household by asking to speak with the adult currently living in thehousehold who has had the most recent birthday. This selecon process ensures that every adult (18 years of age or older) in thehousehold has an equal chance of being included in the survey.

The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households. Addionally, data were weightedby respondent sex, age, educaon, and region of the state to targets from the most recent American Community Survey (ACS)conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. In addion to potenal sampling error, all surveys have other potenal sources of non-samplingerror including queson order effects, queson wording effects, and non-response. Due to rounding, percentages may not sum to100%. The number of respondents in each demographic below may not equal the number reported in cross-tabulaon tables as somerespondents choose not to answer some quesons.

For more informaon about the methodology used in the Granite State Poll, contact Dr. Andrew Smith at (603) 862-2226 or by email [email protected].

Granite State Poll, Winter 2018 Demographics

N

Sex of Respondent Female

Male

Age of Respondent 18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Level of Education High school or less

Technical school/Some college

College graduate

Postgraduate work

Region of State Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast

Registered to Vote Reg. Democrat

Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.

Reg. Republican

Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

256

267

96

148

123

134

57

108

203

148

97

55

121

101

66

84

109

285

124

148

113

237

%

49%

51%

19%

30%

25%

27%

11%

21%

39%

29%

18%

10%

23%

19%

13%

16%

21%

55%

24%

30%

23%

48%


October 2017

February 2018 87%

94%

8%

4%

5%

2%


Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire primary, are you leaning toward someone...or have youconsidered some candidates but are sll trying to decide?

N

219

196

AmyKlobuchar

BernieSanders Cory Booker

ElizabethWarren Joe Biden John Delaney

JohnHickenlooper

KamalaHarris

October 2017

February 2018 1%

1%2%

0%

0%

35%

24%

15%

13%

3%

6%

24%

31%

0%

1%


Now, I'm going to read you a list of some candidates who are running or could run for the Democrac nominaon. If the Democracprimary for president were held today, which of the following would you support for the Democrac nominaon...Joe Biden...CoryBooker...John Delaney...Eric Garce ...Kisten Gillibrand...Kamala Harris...John Hickenlooper...Amy Klobuchar...Marn O'Malley...TimRyan...Bernie Sanders...Elizabeth Warren...or someone else?

N

223

211

Kirsten Gillibrand Mark Zuckerberg Martin O'Malley Tim Ryan Undecided Other

October 2017

February 2018 4%

5%

15%

11%1%

1%

3%2%

2%

1%

Interest in Primary

I know it is a long way away, but as you know, the New Hampshire Presidenal Primary is being held in 2020. How interested would yousay you are in the 2020 New Hampshire Presidenal Primary elecon?

Extremely Interested Very Interested Somewhat Interested Not Very Interested DK/Not Sure

October 2017

February 2018 1%

0%

7%

8%

13%

18%

24%

27%

55%

47%

N

523

570

Likelihood of Vong in 2020 Presidenal Primary

Which of the following statements best describes you?

Definitely vote inPrimary

Will vote in Primaryunless emergency May vote in Primary

Probably not vote inPrimary Unsure

October 2017

February 2018 6%

7%

5%

2%

4%

5%

9%

11%

76%

74%

N

517

567

Plan on Vong for Trump in 2020 Republican Primary or Another Candidate - Republican Primary Voters

Do you plan on vong for Donald Trump in the 2020 New Hampshire Republican primary or do you plan to vote for another Republicancandidate?


October 2017

February 2018 23%

30%

18%

23%

60%

47%

N

157

183


Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire primary, are you leaning toward someone...or have youconsidered some candidates but are sll trying to decide?


October 2017

February 2018 63%

77%

8%

5%

30%

18%

N

157

183

ExtremelyInterested Very Interested

SomewhatInterested

Not VeryInterested DK/Not Sure

STATEWIDE 1%7%13%24%55%

Interest in Primary

N

523

Registered toVote

Reg. Democrat


Reg. Republican

Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Media Usage Listen to Conserv. Radio

Listen to NHPR

Read Boston Globe

Read Local Newspapers

Read Union Leader

Watch WMUR

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Sex ofRespondent

Female

Male

Level ofEducation

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work

FrequencyAttendingRelig. Services

Once a week or more

Once or twice a month

Few times a year

Never

2016PresidentialVote

Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

Voted for Other

Did Not Vote

Gun Owner inHousehold

Gun Owner

Not Gun Owner

Labor UnionMembership

Union household

Non-Union household

Veteran/Activein Household

Active/Veteran Military

No Active/Veteran Military

Region ofState

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast

CongressionalDistrict

First Congressional District

Second Congressional District

1%

1%

0%

2%

10%

3%

16%

16%

4%

20%

26%

25%

60%

48%

68%

1%

2%

4%

12%

2%

17%

19%

9%

19%

26%

27%

59%

40%

63%

1%8%

4%

4%

13%

13%

7%

22%

29%

22%

56%

55%

67%

1%

2%

3%

3%

1%

5%

3%

5%

2%

5%

2%

16%

14%

12%

13%

6%

14%

23%

20%

28%

9%

19%

20%

54%

61%

53%

73%

69%

65%

1%

1%

1%

5%

5%

9%

10%

13%

13%

13%

13%

27%

23%

17%

30%

54%

60%

60%

45%

2%9%

5%

17%

10%

25%

24%

48%

61%

1%

1%

5%

4%

7%

10%

7%

7%

13%

19%

22%

23%

26%

24%

66%

66%

53%

46%

1%

2%

2%

6%

7%

11%

8%

15%

14%

11%

8%

23%

25%

29%

25%

55%

54%

47%

58%

3%

0%

1%

24%

4%

3%

5%

17%

14%

8%

15%

25%

31%

20%

27%

31%

51%

69%

53%

2%

8%

6%

11%

16%

26%

22%

55%

55%

1%6%

9%

13%

16%

26%

17%

54%

58%

1%

1%

7%

6%

15%

5%

23%

27%

54%

60%

3%

1%

3%

15%

7%

0%

5%

15%

7%

23%

18%

14%

6%

11%

29%

20%

29%

17%

23%

24%

49%

47%

52%

64%

69%

48%

1%

1%

4%

9%

14%

12%

25%

24%

56%

54%

109

285

124

148

113

237

147

204

118

264

68

133

63

145

61

96

148

123

134

256

267

57

108

203

148

246

134

35

86

87

43

202

171

275

226

436

77

394

118

97

55

121

101

66

84

248

275

Definitely votein Primary

Will vote inPrimary unlessemergency

May vote inPrimary

Probably notvote in Primary Unsure

STATEWIDE 6%5%4%9%76%

Likelihood of Vong in 2020 Presidenal Primary

N

517

Registered toVote

Reg. Democrat


Reg. Republican

Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative


Listen to NHPR

Read Boston Globe


Read Union Leader

Watch WMUR

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Sex ofRespondent

Female

Male

Level ofEducation

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work


Once a week or more


Few times a year

Never


Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

Voted for Other

Did Not Vote


Gun Owner

Not Gun Owner


Union household

Non-Union household




Region ofState

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast




3%

7%

4%

1%

8%

3%

3%

6%

2%

8%

11%

5%

84%

67%

86%

3%

9%

4%

11%

3%

3%

8%

4%

8%

15%

7%

87%

58%

81%

2%

4%

1%

5%

2%

6%

6%

4%

2%

5%

13%

9%

82%

77%

82%

5%

3%

3%

4%

5%

4%

4%

3%

3%

5%

5%

5%

1%

1%

3%

7%

19%

11%

15%

8%

4%

78%

70%

77%

80%

84%

93%

11%

5%

3%

5%

2%

2%

8%

10%

2%

3%

5%

8%

7%

7%

4%

15%

79%

83%

79%

62%

6%

5%

6%

4%

6%

3%

6%

12%

76%

76%

0%

1%

5%

12%

3%

2%

7%

7%

5%

1%

2%

10%

4%

15%

7%

8%

88%

82%

79%

64%

6%

7%

7%

1%

7%

1%

8%

6%

1%

11%

7%

8%

7%

5%

11%

77%

74%

80%

76%

17%

2%

3%

4%

18%

9%

4%

16%

2%

1%

2%

5%

21%

10%

7%

44%

66%

83%

86%

5%

7%

6%

4%

6%

3%

6%

12%

77%

73%

6%

6%

5%

2%

5%9%

11%

75%

81%

6%

3%

6%

5%

5%

3%

8%

11%

76%

78%

6%

15%

2%

2%

8%

6%

6%

2%

4%

5%

16%

7%

9%

2%

7%

2%

15%

13%

13%

3%

3%

5%

66%

60%

83%

83%

84%

72%

6%

5%

5%

5%

2%

6%

9%

9%

77%

75%

109

280

124

148

109

236

146

202

116

259

68

131

62

141

61

96

146

120

133

253

264

57

107

201

147

242

132

35

86

85

40

202

171

269

226

430

77

391

116

94

55

118

101

66

84

245

272


STATEWIDE 87%8%5%


N

219

Registered toVote

Reg. Democrat


Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative


Listen to NHPR

Read Boston Globe


Read Union Leader

Watch WMUR

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Sex ofRespondent

Female

Male

Level ofEducation

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work


Once a week or more


Few times a year

Never


Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

Voted for Other

Did Not Vote


Gun Owner

Not Gun Owner


Union household

Non-Union household




Region ofState

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast




83%

91%

11%

5%

7%

4%

100%

100%

85%9%6%

100%

96%

75%

4%

14%

0%

12%

87%

86%

86%

75%

81%

63%

9%

2%

5%

15%

11%

37%

4%

11%

9%

10%

8%

86%

92%

81%

86%

9%

5%

11%

8%

5%

3%

7%

6%

85%

88%

12%

5%

3%

6%

92%

91%

87%

82%

6%

7%

10%

6%

2%

2%

4%

12%

87%

89%

95%

71%

9%

6%

5%

13%

4%

5%

16%

88%

97%

84%

98%

3%

11%

12%

5%

2%

87%

86%

7%

9%

5%

5%

90%

76%

5%

17%

5%

7%

86%

90%

10%

2%

4%

8%

82%

84%

89%

79%

94%

99%

8%

16%

6%

14%

2%

10%

5%

7%

3%

1%

90%

84%

7%

9%

3%

7%

105

113

5

23

188

11

102

94

105

33

65

37

94

12

39

57

50

65

93

126

27

48

90

52

114

58

14

23

24

17

158

14

133

82

166

51

167

50

48

23

46

43

34

25

97

121

AmyKlobuchar

BernieSanders Cory Booker

ElizabethWarren Joe Biden

JohnDelaney

KamalaHarris

STATEWIDE 1%0%35%15%3%24%0%


Registered toVote

Reg. Democrat


Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative


Listen to NHPR

Read Boston Globe


Read Union Leader

Watch WMUR

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Sex ofRespondent

Female

Male

Level ofEducation

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work


Once a week or more


Few times a year

Never


Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

Voted for Other

Did Not Vote


Gun Owner

Not Gun Owner


Union household

Non-Union household




Region ofState

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast




2%

0%0%

39%

31%

11%

19%

2%

5%

28%

20%0%

1%0%

34%

15%

37%

7%

10%

16%

1%

4%

47%

22%0%

1%

1%0%

40%

36%

26%

15%

16%

3%

4%

32%

18%

30%

0%

1%

2%0%

33%

28%

27%

44%

34%

52%

14%

6%

14%

7%

20%

3%

5%

4%

7%

5%

8%

23%

33%

17%

31%

21%

29%

0%

2%

1%

1%35%

23%

40%

42%

19%

19%

19%

5%

5%

3%

4%

2%

15%

17%

26%

32%

1%

0%

1%

0%35%

35%

19%

12%

1%

5%

28%

22%0%

5%

2%

1%32%

29%

41%

30%

18%

14%

18%

11%

5%

11%

1%

16%

22%

17%

42%

1%

0%

3%0%

36%

38%

34%

23%

13%

12%

40%

26%

3%

1%

10%

7%

25%

20%

2%

28%

0%

1%0%

27%

57%

35%

22%

17%

4%

18%4%

52%

20%

21%

7%

0%

0%

2%

0%32%

39%

17%

13%

4%

1%

23%

26%

0%

1%

2%

0%37%

28%

9%

36%

3%

2%

26%

18%

0%

1%

2%

0%33%

41%

15%

15%

4%

2%

23%

26%

0%

4%

4%1%

20%

33%

34%

51%

42%

29%

29%

5%

15%

10%

12%

10%

4%

4%

2%

5%

3%

25%

12%

23%

33%

25%

22%

1%

1%

1%

0%42%

29%

14%

16%

3%

3%

21%

27%

0%

Kamala HarrisKirstenGillibrand

MartinO'Malley Undecided Other

STATEWIDE 4%15%1%2%1%


N

223

Registered toVote

Reg. Democrat


Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative


Listen to NHPR

Read Boston Globe


Read Union Leader

Watch WMUR

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Sex ofRespondent

Female

Male

Level ofEducation

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work


Once a week or more


Few times a year

Never


Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

Voted for Other

Did Not Vote


Gun Owner

Not Gun Owner


Union household

Non-Union household




Region ofState

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast




4%

4%

12%

17%

1%

1%

2%

2%

2%

0%

8%

3%

43%

7%

15%

16%

5%

0%

7%

1%1%

5%

1%

30%

15%

8%

11%

1%2%

3%

1%

1%

7%

18%

6%

4%

17%

10%

29%

9%

11%

4%

2%

1%

2%

1%

0%

6%

2%

2%

2%

1%

1%

2%

6%

6%

4%

14%

23%

4%

18%

3%

2%

4%

4%

2%

2%

1%

3%

4%

10%

18%

2%

0%

1%

3%

0%

1%

1%

5%

6%

14%

17%

16%

11%

1%

2%

8%

3%

1%

5%

2%

4%

6%

3%

15%

18%

13%

7%

1%

6%

3%

1%

0%

3%

3%

12%

3%

19%

14%

39%

0%

14%

2%

6%

1%

4%

4%

15%

13%

1%2%

2%

0%

2%

4%

3%

16%

9%

1%2%

3%

1%

2%

4%

3%

17%

7%

1%

2%

2%

2%

1%

2%

3%

3%

5%

13%

17%

42%

13%

2%

3%

23%

1%

4%

2%

3%

3%

3%

4%

4%

6%

2%

10%

18%2%

2%

2%

1%

1%

110

112

5

23

192

10

106

95

109

34

66

37

94

12

40

58

50

66

94

129

27

49

91

53

115

58

15

23

26

18

161

14

136

82

171

51

169

51

48

24

47

43

35

26

102

121


STATEWIDE 63%8%30%


N

157

Registered toVote


Reg. Republican

Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative


Listen to NHPR

Read Boston Globe


Read Union Leader

Watch WMUR

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Sex ofRespondent

Female

Male

Level ofEducation

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work


Once a week or more


Few times a year

Never


Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

Voted for Other

Did Not Vote


Gun Owner

Not Gun Owner


Union household

Non-Union household




Region ofState

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast




63%

61%

8%

7%

29%

32%

59%

73%

73%

9%

9%

32%

27%

18%

60%

71%

36%

9%

1%

12%

30%

28%

52%

58%

54%

73%

60%

93%

35%

7%

6%

4%

13%

35%

40%

23%

40%

7%

53%

58%

59%

68%

72%

7%

7%

18%

35%

34%

32%

11%

59%

67%

12%

2%

29%

31%

60%

67%

60%

62%

9%

8%

5%

11%

31%

25%

34%

28%

65%

64%

57%

59%

6%

9%

9%

29%

27%

43%

32%

100%

100%

91%

57%

9%

7%36%

68%

57%

5%

11%

27%

32%

61%

71%

8%

7%

31%

22%

68%

42%

6%

12%

25%

46%

70%

80%

60%

55%

59%

65%

4%

7%

7%

15%

5%

4%

27%

13%

32%

30%

35%

31%

61%

64%

8%

7%

31%

28%

96

58

123

20

9

101

43

7

84

16

35

16

18

42

27

58

38

24

87

70

14

37

63

40

65

32

13

41

9

4

9

130

57

85

136

15

117

35

18

11

51

31

16

31

80

77


STATEWIDE 23%18%60%

Plan on Vong for Trump in 2020 Republican Primary or Another Candidate - Republican Primary Voters

N

162

Registered toVote


Reg. Republican

Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative


Listen to NHPR

Read Boston Globe


Read Union Leader

Watch WMUR

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Sex ofRespondent

Female

Male

Level ofEducation

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work


Once a week or more


Few times a year

Never


Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

Voted for Other

Did Not Vote


Gun Owner

Not Gun Owner


Union household

Non-Union household




Region ofState

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast




22%

25%

22%

11%

56%

65%

23%

25%

11%

14%

21%

40%

63%

54%

49%

20%

33%

3%

9%

30%

45%

71%

37%

52%

22%

23%

29%

28%

31%

5%

16%

9%

29%

11%

14%

1%

62%

68%

43%

61%

54%

94%

25%

26%

28%

5%

8%

18%

18%

29%

67%

56%

54%

66%

29%

15%

12%

25%

59%

60%

44%

23%

14%

29%

13%

24%

19%

11%

44%

54%

67%

60%

26%

20%

20%

20%

14%

27%

13%

14%

60%

53%

68%

67%

35%

16%

1%

22%

9%

84%

90%

12%

56%

9%

66%

15%

28%

27%

14%

58%

58%

22%

32%

18%

4%

61%

64%

21%

27%

21%

7%

58%

66%

22%

25%

19%

27%

16%

27%

26%

23%

25%

6%

19%

53%

52%

55%

67%

84%

54%

26%

19%

17%

19%

57%

62%

101

59

128

20

9

106

43

7

84

16

35

16

21

45

27

58

42

25

92

70

14

38

68

40

65

37

13

41

9

4

9

134

57

90

141

15

122

35

18

11

53

31

16

33

83

79

Documents

The Granite State Poll - cola.unh.edu · PDF fileSean P. McKinley, M.A ... 23% 23% 30% Plan on Vo ng for Trump or Other Republican Candidate? Vote For Trump Vote For Other Candidate