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IEA
The Global EV Outlook 2018Focus on batteries and battery charging
Jacopo Tattini
Seminario ITAM y GIZ – ITAM, Ciudad de Mexico
Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI)
Multi-government policy forum dedicated to conducting collaborative activitiesthat support the design and implementation of domestic electric vehicle (EV)deployment policies and programs
In 2010, EVI was one of several initiatives launched under the CEM
Currently co-chaired by Canada and China, and coordinated by the IEA
Released several analytical publications, demonstrating leadership to strengthenthe understanding of the opportunities offered by electric mobility to meet multiple policy goals
Instrumental to mobilize action and commitments (Paris Declaration on Electro-Mobility and Climate Change at COP21, Government Fleet Declaration at COP22)
Launched the EV30@30 Campaign in June 2017, updated in September 2018
Launched the Pilot City Programme in May 2018
Also working with the Global Environment Facility on the preparation of a project for the support ofEV policy-making in developing regions
Members
in 2018
EV30@30 Campaign
Designed to accelerate the global deployment of electric vehicles
Sets a collective aspirational goal to reach 30% sales share for EVs by 2030
Launched at the 8th CEM meeting, in Beijing, by Minister Wan Gang
Enlarged participation announced at the UK ZEV Summit in September 2018
Implementing actions include:
• Supporting the deployment of chargers and tracking its progress,
• Galvanising public and private sector commitments for electric vehicle (EV) uptake in company and supplier fleets
• Scaling up policy research and information exchanges
• Supporting governments for policy and technical assistance through training
• Establishing the Global EV Pilot City Programme, aiming to achieve 100 EV-Friendly Cities over five years. The PCP counts over 30 cities by September 2018.
Supported by several partners, including the private sector since 2018
Members
+ UK in 2018
Global EV Outlook 2018
• EVI flagship report by the IEA
• 2018 edition includes• Data reporting (EV stock, sales, EVSE, battery costs)
• Overview of existing policies
• Battery technology and cost assessment
• Implications on the TCO of road vehicles
• Role of EVs in low carbon scenarios (2030 timeframe)
• Electricity demand, oil displacement and GHG emission mitigation
• Material demand
• Policy recommendations
• 2018 edition also paired with the Nordic EV Outlook 2018• Focus on one of the most dynamic global regions for EV uptake
• Opportunity to learn on policy efficacy and consumer behaviour
The number of electric cars on the road continues to grow
The electric car stock exceeded 3 million in 2017
However, electric cars still only represent 0.3% of the global car fleet
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Elec
tric
car
sto
ck (m
illio
ns)
Others
United States
Europe
China
BEV
BEV + PHEV
The role of consumer electronics for Li-ion battery improvements
Consumer electronics led to cost declines (through technology progress and scale) for Li-ion in the past
This benefited both EV packs, now set to deliver the next scale up, and stationary storage
1995
20162017
2010
20102013
20152016
Li-ion improvements: battery chemistry
Battery chemistries influence costs per kWh through changes in energy density and materials
Reducing the content of cobalt in battery chemistries also results in lower unit costs, all else being equal
0
50
100
150
200
250
LFP-Gr NMC 111-Gr NCA-Gr NMC622-Gr NMC 811-Gr
Ba
tter
y co
st (U
SD/k
Wh
)
Cathode chemistry
Other materials
Battery jacket
Module hardware
Electrolyte
Separators
Negative active material
Positive active material
Other cost components
Industry is mobilizing investment in large scale manufacturing
Current battery factory capacity ranges between 0.5-8 GWh/year
Much larger plants (7.5-35 GWh/year), aiming to reap economies of scale benefits, already announced
Country Manufacturer Production
capacity
(GWh/year)
Year of commissioning
Source
Operational
China BYD 8 2016 TL Ogan (2016)
US LG Chem 2.6 2013 BNEF (2018)
Japan Panasonic 3.5 2017 BNEF (2018)
China CATL 7 2016 BNEF (2018)
Announced
Germany TerraE 34 2028 TerraE (2017)
US Tesla 35 2018 Tesla (2018b)
India Reliance 25 2022 Factor Daily (2017)
China CATL 24 2020 Reuters (2017f)
Sweden Northvolt 32 2023 Northvolt (2017)
Hungary SK innovation 7.5 2020 SK innovation (2018)
Li-ion improvements: effects of size & production volumes on costs
Battery size and manufacturing capacities have sizable impacts on the cost of batteries per kWh
Over time, both these factors will help delivering significant cost reductions
Note: graphics developed for BEV batteries for cars
Li-ion expected as the technology of choice for the next decade
Li-ion will continue to improve, thanks to several enhancements possible in battery performance
Other technology options will be ready after 2025, and scaled up in the following years
Cathode
2020 2025 20302017
NMC111N0.8C0.15A0.05
Graphite
Li Metal,HVS
NMC811NMC622
N0.9C0.05A0.05
CurrentBeyond
Lithium-ionAdvanced
Lithium-ionBeing deployed
Anode
Electrolyte
Next generation Lithium-ion
Li-Air
Li-SulphurGraphite/Silicon composite
Graphite + 5-10% Silicon
Carbon alloys
Polymer5V electrolyte
saltsGel Polymer
Organic solvent + LiPF6 salts
100
2030 ?2017
400
0
155
360
120
Bat
tery
co
sts
(USD
/kW
h)
0
50
100
150
200
250
LFP-Gr NMC 111-Gr NCA-Gr NMC622-Gr NMC 811-Gr
Ba
tter
y co
st (U
SD/k
Wh
)
Cathode chemistry
Other materials
Battery jacket
Module hardware
Electrolyte
Separators
Negative active material
Positive active material
Other cost components
Lithium-ion batteries: further cost reductions at reach…
The combined effect of manufacturing scale up, improved chemistry and increased battery size
explain how battery cost can decline significantly in the next 10 to 15 years
Plant scale
Chemistry
Battery size
0.5-8 GWh/year 35 GWh/year
20-75 kWh 70-80 kWh
NMC 111 NMC 811
EVs lead to higher electricity demand…
Around 91% of the power for electric vehicles in 2017 was consumed in China
The share of electricity demand from EVs was 0.8% in China and 0.5% in Norway
0
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30
40
50
60
2015 2016 2017
EV e
lect
rici
ty c
on
sum
pti
on
(TW
h)
2 Wheeler Bus LDV
China
United States
France
Norway
Germany
Japan
United Kingdom
NetherlandsCanada
Others
Other
Electricity demand due to EVs: 54 TWh (more than the electricity demand of Greece)
Are electric cars impacting the power grid?
Home chargers can add significant loads to the household power demand. Unless properly managed (e.g. delayed charging), electricity demand due to electric car charging could exceed the maximum power in the distribution
grid.
Peak electricity demand in independent Norwegian houses with home charging
0
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4
6
8
10
12
14
Summer day Winter day Extra cold day (-13°C)
kWh
/h
Typical BEV onboard charger
Typical PHEV onboard charger
Typical household peak powerdemand
Power connection typical large home
Power connection typical small home
Ensuring that EVs are effectively integrated in the electricity grid
• Power generation: variable renewable capacity additions are breaking records
• Local power distribution: need to minimize the risk of local grid disruptions and the need for costly grid upgrades
→ Flexible charging is key
• To accommodate efficiently variable renewable generation (e.g. daytime workplace charging when PV generates most)
• To release pressure on the grid at high power demand peak hours
• To avoid grid disruptions locally, provide frequency and load balancing services
→ How?
• Default vehicle software allowing flexibility
• Time-of-use pricing
• Smart-meters
• Regulatory environment favourable to aggregators
• Who pays for local grid upgrades? Utility? EV owner x? All EV owners? Everyone?
www.iea.orgIEA
Global EV deployment under the NPS and the EV30@30 scenario
The EV30@30 Scenario sees almost 230 million EVs (excluding two- and three-wheelers), mostly LDVs,
on the road by 2030. This is about 100 million more than in the New Policies Scenario
0 20 40 60 80
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240
2017 2020 2025 2030
Mil
lio
n v
ehic
les
New Policies Scenario
PLDVs - BEV PLDVs - PHEV LCVs - BEV LCVs - PHEV Buses - BEV Buses - PHEV Trucks - BEV Trucks - PHEV
0 20 40 60 80
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240
2017 2020 2025 2030
EV30@30 Scenario
Battery capacity
Demand for battery capacity for electric vehicles, primarily PLDVs, is projected to increase to 0.78 TWh
per year in the New Policies Scenario and 2.2 TWh per year in the EV30@30 Scenario and to 2030
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
2017 2020 2025 2030
Ba
tter
y ca
pa
city
ad
dit
ion
s (G
Wh
/yea
r), 2
03
0
NPS EV30@30
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
NPS EV30@30Ba
tter
y ca
pa
city
ad
dit
ion
s (G
Wh
/yea
r), 2
03
0
LDVs-BEV LDVs-PHEV Buses Trucks 2/3 Wheelers
Material demand
Lithium and cobalt demand from electro mobility in 2030 will be much higher than current demand
Developments in battery chemistry can greatly affect future demand
Cobalt Lithium
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
NPS EV30@30
2017 2030
Met
al D
eman
d (k
t)
Low cobalt chemistry High cobalt chemistry Central estimate
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
NPS EV30@30
2017 2030
Met
al D
eman
d (
kt)
Historical
Managing changes in material demand from EV batteries
• Challenges (material procurement):o Fluctuating prices, stockpilingo Uncertainty for EV developments and battery technologieso Concentrated extraction (DRC for cobalt)
• Solutions:o Long-term contractso Need clarity and certainty over future market key area with national/local governments
influence (ZEV mandates, targets, bans)
• Challenges (social and environmental sustainability):o Environmental impact of miningo Black market/child labouro Extremely untransparent supply chains
• Solutions: o Multi-stakeholder actions and signals (governments, civil society, NGOs, industry)o Sustainability standards to be developed, labelling
Electric car sales are on the rise in all major car markets
China is the largest electric car market globally, followed by Europe and the US
Norway is the global leader in terms of market share, with 40% in 2017
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
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17
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Elec
tric
car
mar
ket
shar
e
New
ele
ctri
c ca
r sa
les
([th
ou
san
ds)
China
Europe
United States
Norway
Germany
Japan
United Kingdom
France
Sweden
Canada
Netherlands
Market share of newelectric cars
Charger deployment accompanies EV uptake
EV owners charge mostly at home or at work: private chargers far exceed publicly accessible ones
Publicly accessible chargers important to ensure EV market expansion, fast chargers essential for buses
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Ch
argi
ng
ou
tlet
s (t
ho
usa
nd
s)
Publicly available fast chargers
Publicly available slow chargers
Private fast chargers (bus fleets)
Private slow chargers (cars)
…but they enable reductions in oil use, GHG & pollutant emissions
• EVs consume (in final energy terms) half to one third of the energy used by ICE powertrains
o This is due both to the higher efficiency of the powertrain and the EVs’ ability to regenerate kinetic energy when braking
• EVs displaced 0.4 mb/d of diesel and gasoline demand in 2017
o The majority of the displacement is attributed to two- and three-wheelers (73%), the rest to buses (15%) and LDVs (12%)
• EVs also allowed to reduce global well-to-wheel CO2 emission savings of 29.4 Mt CO2 in 2017, and abated pollutant emission savings in high exposure areas (urban environments), thanks to zero tailpipe emissions
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400 USD/kWh: Large battery 260 USD/kWh: Large battery 120 USD/kWh: Large battery
400 USD/kWh: Current battery 260 USD/kWh: Current battery 120 USD/kWh: Current battery
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Battery price:
Implications for the cost competitiveness of EVs
BEVs are most competitive in markets with high fuel taxes and at high mileageAt a USD 120/kWh battery price and with EU gasoline prices, BEV are competitive even at low mileage
LDVs - BEV
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2-wheelers
The economic case for electric two-wheelers is strong: in countries with high fuel taxes electric two-wheelers are already cost competitive with gasoline models
High incomeDiesel price of USD 1.4 /L, electricity price of USD 0.13 /kWh Diesel price of USD 0.9 /L, electricity price of USD 0.13 /kWh
Low incomeDiesel price of USD 1.4 /L, electricity price of USD 0.13 /kWh Diesel price of USD 0.9 /L, electricity price of USD 0.13 /kWh
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Buses
Electric buses travelling 40 000-50 000 km/year are cost competitive in regions with high diesel taxation regimes if battery prices are below USD 260/kWh
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Benchmarking scenario results against OEM targets for PLDVs
Estimates based on manufacturers’ projections suggest an uptake of electric LDVs
ranging in-between the New Policies and the EV30@30 scenarios by 2025
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2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Mill
ion
ele
ctri
c LD
Vs
OEMs announcements (estimate) New Policies Scenario EV30@30
EV uptake is still largely driven by the policy environment
• All 10 leading countries in electric vehicle adoption have a range of policies in place to promote the uptake of electric cars
• Policies have been instrumental to make electric vehicles more appealing to customers, reduce risks for investors and encourage manufacturers to scale up production
• Key instruments deployed by local and national governments for supporting EV deployment:
o public procurement
o financial incentives facilitating the acquisition of EVs and reducing their usage cost (e.g. by offering free parking)
o financial incentives and direct investment for the deployment of chargers
o regulatory instruments, such as fuel economy standards and restrictions on the circulation of vehicles based on their tailpipe emissions performance
Regional insights on the GEVO 2018 scenarios
China and Europe are the global regions with the fastest development of EVs
in both scenarios and in virtually all modes
EV market share by mode in a selection of regions, NPS and EV30@30 scenario, 2030
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Ma
rket
sh
are
(%)
China
BEV PHEV
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%Europe
BEV PHEV
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%Japan
BEV PHEV
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Ma
rket
sh
are
(%)
United States
BEV PHEV
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%India
BEV PHEV
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%Rest of the World
BEV PHEV
NPS EV30@30 NPS EV30@30 NPS EV30@30
NPS EV30@30 NPS EV30@30 NPS EV30@30
Power demand projections
Two-wheeler and bus electricity demand make China the highest consumer of electricity for EVs in both
scenarios. In the EV30@30 Scenario, electricity demand for EVs is more geographically widespread
0
50
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250
300
NPS EV30@30
TWh
Japan
0
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300
NPS EV30@30
TWh
United States
PLDV LCV Bus and Minibus HDV 2/3 wheelers
0
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250
300
NPS EV30@30
Europe
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300
NPS EV30@30
China
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300
NPS EV30@30
India
0
50
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300
NPS EV30@30
Rest of the World
GHG emissions
In 2030, CO2 emissions associated with the use of EVs are lower than those of equivalent ICE vehicles
at a global scale, even if electricity generation does not decarbonise from current levels
EV30@30 NPS
0
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400
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700
800
2017 2020 2025 2030
Mt
CO
₂
Avoided emissions, without grid decarbonisation, compared to equivalent ICE fleetAvoided emissions due to grid decarbonisationEmissions from EVs
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2017 2020 2025 2030
Managing the battery end-of-life treatment
• Rules over legal responsibility for battery end-of-life (1st/2nd/3rd life)
o Risk of disengagement and no battery management chains / recycling
o Risk of landfilling in-country or abroad (consumer electronics battery problem)
• Certifications and traceability schemes along the lifecycle of batteries (material extraction, assembly, use, 2nd/3rd life, recycling/disposal)
• Encourage manufacturing design enabling recycling processes that allow the recovery of high-value materials minimizing costs and energy use
o Regulatory framework mandating that batteries are suitable for physical separation?
o Need for multi-stakeholder coordination to understand scope for feasibility without hindering technological advances in battery chemistries/manufacturing
PRIVATE & PUBLIC
EVSE ROLLOUT
DEMAND-DRIVEN & BUSINESS-DRIVEN EVSE
SUCCESSFUL GRID
INTEGRATION
MATERIAL DEMAND
MANAGEMENT
SECOND LIFE, END-OF-LIFE AND RECYCLING
Policies favouring the transition to electric mobility
CARBON PRICING
OF FUELS
PUBLIC
PROCUREMENT
BRIDGING THE
PRICE GAP
FUEL ECONOMY
STANDARDS
LOCAL ACCESS
REGULATIONS
ROAD PRICING
Stimulating the adoption of electric vehicles
• Carbon pricing on transport fuels
• Targets to phase in zero emission vehicles
• Public procurement programmes for zero-emission vehicles, providing a pivotal stimulus to market creation and expansion
• Bridging the price gap (adjusting to the EV uptake)
o Differentiated taxes on vehicle purchase, best if based on environmental performances (bonus/malus, feebates)
o Circulation advantages (free or discounted parking, free charging and access to priority traffic lanes and reduced charges on the use of transport infrastructure)
• Fuel economy standards
• Zero emission incentives (more flexible to technology development) or mandates (higher certitude)
• Local initiatives to regulate access
Focus on fuel economy standards and ZEV incentives/mandates
• Fuel-economy and tailpipe CO2 emissions standards have demonstrated their efficacy to lead to improved ICE vehicle efficiency
• Standards must be sufficiently stringent to secure timely investment and help ramp-up production and supporting infrastructure
• Once legislated standards shall not be compromised by changes
• Standards can be coupled with differentiated purchase taxes
• Standards can also be coupled with ZEV incentives (more room for flexibility to manage technology uncertainties) or mandates (higher certitude on volumes)
• Life cycle approach desirable, but there is a risk of overlaps with other regulatory frameworks (such as those regulating emissions for the fuel supply chain) and implementation challenges
• Need to ensure that power generation and other fuels will also decarbonize (need for complementary measures in the power and fuel production sectors)