The Geopolitics of The Geopolitics of Arctic MeltArctic Melt

Dr. Charles K. EbingerDr. Charles K. EbingerAndAnd

Evie ZambetakisEvie Zambetakis

Energy Security InitiativeEnergy Security InitiativeThe Brookings InstitutionThe Brookings Institution

Arctic MeltArctic Melt Climate change, feedback loopsClimate change, feedback loops

More than one million square miles of More than one million square miles of ice melted in 2007ice melted in 2007

We could have ice-free Arctic We could have ice-free Arctic summers as early as 2013 or 2015summers as early as 2013 or 2015

New environmental and strategic New environmental and strategic challengeschallenges

Arctic Melt: What you need Arctic Melt: What you need to knowto know

The short- to medium-term debate: new The short- to medium-term debate: new or existing multinational frameworks for or existing multinational frameworks for Arctic governanceArctic governance

Technology is a key barrier to the Technology is a key barrier to the “scramble” for access to shipping and “scramble” for access to shipping and E&P of hydrocarbonsE&P of hydrocarbons

The US is The US is far behind far behind the rest of the Arctic the rest of the Arctic states on its Arctic policy and presencestates on its Arctic policy and presence

Legal Frameworks and Legal Frameworks and International CooperationInternational Cooperation

UN Convention on the Law of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)Sea (UNCLOS)

Arctic CouncilArctic Council Challenges to governanceChallenges to governance

Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-ArendalHugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal

http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/arctic-sea-routes-northern-sea-route-and-northwest-passage http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/arctic-sea-routes-northern-sea-route-and-northwest-passage

Shipping Routes

Geopolitical FlashpointsGeopolitical Flashpoints

Icebreaker FleetsIcebreaker Fleets

1 Icebreaker = 8-10 years lead-time + ~$1 billion

Russia

Canada

Finland

U.S.Germany

Japan

China

Natural Gas-to-Oil Ratio Natural Gas-to-Oil Ratio 3:13:1

http://www.cge.uevora.pt/aspo2005/abscom/Abstract_Lisbon_Ronning.pdf - Statoil’s Arctic Assessment

When would Arctic E&P When would Arctic E&P be attractive?be attractive?

High Oil PricesHigh Oil Prices Ice-capable technologyIce-capable technology Increased geopolitical tensions in Increased geopolitical tensions in

shipping chokepointsshipping chokepoints Sense of clear delineation of Sense of clear delineation of

boundaries and legal frameworksboundaries and legal frameworks

The Big PictureThe Big Picture

Arctic states appear committed to Arctic states appear committed to cooperation and are likely to build cooperation and are likely to build capacity of existing frameworkscapacity of existing frameworks

Commercial and strategic benefits are Commercial and strategic benefits are real but distant real but distant

Arctic remains strategically important Arctic remains strategically important in the long-run, with multiple in the long-run, with multiple potential flashpoints which can be potential flashpoints which can be mitigated by focus on cooperationmitigated by focus on cooperation

Recommendations for Recommendations for the United Statesthe United States

US must be able to be active and US must be able to be active and project influence in the Arctic region project influence in the Arctic region year-round and in any conditionsyear-round and in any conditions

Ratify UNCLOSRatify UNCLOS Invest $2 billion for 2 new Invest $2 billion for 2 new

icebreakers and $1 billion for icebreakers and $1 billion for maintenance of existing icebreakers maintenance of existing icebreakers in the interimin the interim

Encourage research on ice-capable Encourage research on ice-capable technologies through public-private technologies through public-private partnershipspartnerships

ContactContact

cebinger@brookings.edu cebinger@brookings.edu ezambetakis@brookings.eduezambetakis@brookings.edu