The Gaza Spring Offensive: Hamas Hybrid Warfare Threat and

Paper No. 48 29 June 2018

Brigadier General (R.) Assaf Orion

The Gaza Spring Offensive: Hamas Hybrid Warfare Threat

and Israel’s Response

Friends of Israel Initiative

The Gaza Spring Offensive: Hamas Hybrid Warfare Threat and Israel’s Response

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The Gaza Spring Offensive: Hamas Hybrid Warfare Threat and Israel’s Response Bottom Line Up Front SinceMarch30Hamashas launchedmultiplehybridmass-crowd /armed terrorattackagainstIsrael’sborderwiththeGazastrip.TheIsraelDefenseForcessuccessfullythwartedthese attemptswith amulti-tier defense combining information operations, non-lethalmeans, and finally selective live fire. The Palestinian death toll so far unfortunatelyexceeded130,arousingvocalcriticismintheWest,accusingIsraelofdisproportionateandunjustifieduseoflethalforceagainstunarmedandpeacefulcivilianprotesters.Againstthisbackdrop,thisreportanalysestheoccurrencesfromthestrategic,operationalandtacticallevels,frombothpoliticalandmilitaryaspects,andsetstheunfoldingeventsinawidecontext.Athoroughlookintotheparties’options,choicesandactionsarrivesataclearconclusion:whiletheGazaStripunderHamasisindeedindireconditions,theGazaterrorgovernmentsoughttoforcefullycoerceIsraelintoconcessions,helpingHamasoutofitsstraits.Thiswastobeachievedthrougharmedterrorattacks,seekingmasskillingandhostagetakingonIsraelisoil.Themilitarypunchwastobeveiledbysocalled“MarchesofReturn”, seemingly “peaceful, unarmed, popular parades and free speechdemonstrations”.Atacloselook,theIDFresponsewasindeedproportionate,controlled,andprofessional,applyinglethalforceasalastresort,andsoavoidingmuchmoresevereconsequences.Thehigh numbers of casualties result from the Hamas’s numerous attacks on the borderdefenses,unrelentingdespitenon-lethalmeasuredusedagainstit,therecurringfrictionitsought,itsintentionaluseofhumanshields,virtuallyembeddingitsterroristsamongmassciviliancrowds,andputtingPalestinianwomen,children,elderlyandhandicappedpersonsinharm’sway.Thesefactsweremisrepresentedtoforeignwatchersbyapreplannedmediamanipulation,includingfakestories,distortedvisualsandoutofcontextrepresentation.After culminating onMay 14, Hamas leadership seemed to conclude their failure, andturnedtootheroptions,especiallyarsonandIEDcarryingkitesandheliumballoons,andoccasionallymortarandrocket fire.Thesechoices fartherset the“Parades” intherightcontext among violence and military operations by a globally recognized terrororganization.



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Table of Contents HistoricalBackground……………………………………………………………….…………………………………….3

TheIsraeli-PalestinianCalendar….………………………………………………………………….……………….4

TheCurrentPalestinianContext….………………………………………………….…………….………….…….4

TheGazasituation….………………………………………………………….…………….…………………………….5

HamasEnds,Ways&Means….………………………………………………..…………….……………………….5

Israel’sPolicyGoals….……………………………………………………………………………….…………………….8

IDFMilitaryResponse….…………………………………………………………………..…………….……………….8

LiveFire….…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..….9

TheBattlefieldUnfolding:Betweenthe“MarchofReturn”,“Tires’Friday”andNakbaDay….………………………………………………….……………………………….11

After14May:BacktoIEDs,MortarsandRockets….……………………………….…………………….13

Can’tpunchthroughtheFence?HamasArsonKites,IED,Balloonsandothermeans….……………………………….………….………….………….…………………….14

Conclusion….…………………………………………………………….………….………….……………….………….15

Annex1:MainreportsontheGazaEventsandDynamics….………………………………..……….16



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Historical Background On September 2005, the last Israeli soldier left theGaza Strip, fulfilling its governmentbiddingtodisengage.Underheatedpublicdebate,Israelevicted8,000ofitscitizensandrazed21villagesandwithdrew to the recognized1949armistice line.On January2006Hamas,theIslamistResistanceMovement,wonthePalestinianparliamentaryelections,whiletherulingFatahnationalistmovementrefusedtorecognizeit.OnJune2006Hamascompleted a military takeover of the Gaza Strip, overthrowing the remains of PAadministration,andestablishingitselfasthedefactorulingpowerthere.Thisspelledthebeginningofa “split screen”political architectureof thePalestinian system,withFatahgoverningtheWBthroughthePA,andHamasrulingtheStrip.HamastakeoveroftheGazaStripallowedittoharassIsraelcontinuouslywithcross-borderattacks, IEDattacks, kidnapping throughattack-tunnels, and recurring indirect fires. IDFborder responses drove Hamas to seek additional options, mainly ballistic, and Iran’sfundingandarminggaveagreatboosttoitsmilitarybuildupefforts.Openlinesoflogisticsfrom Iran, sometimes passing in Sudan and the Red Sea, through Sinai, and intoGaza,providedthemateriel.WiththeIDFgone,HamaswasbusygrowingtheStrip’stunnelingindustry,combiningcommercialtaxabletraffic(intheearly2010sestimated$250Myearlyvalue)andmilitarytransfers.ThisallowedHamastobuildupitsforce,focusingonamixofmortarsandrockets,graduallyincreasingrange,numbersandeffect:fromearlyself-madeQassam rocketwith 1.5 Km3Kgwarhead to Iranian industrymadeFajrwith 45-90Kgwarheadand45-75Kmrange,andbeyond.ConstantmilitaryfrictioninitiatedbyHamasunfoldedtoarecurringpatternofflare-ups,harassing Israeli forces and Gaza-neighboring populations, escalating into peakingoperations of larger scale. A June 2006 abduction attack developed into a limited IDFoperationinGaza,whichwasdwarfedonlybythesecondLebanonwar,whichstartedthenextmonth.OngoingattacksledtooperationCASTLEADattheendof2008,followedbyasignificantly lower level of attacks fromGaza. 8 days Operation PILLAR of DEFENSE onNovember2012wasfollowedbylongerperiodofcalm,collapsingagaininJuly2014intoa51-dayoperationPROTECTIVEEDGE,followedbythelongestperiodofcalmwithGazaever.EachroundofconflictbroughtalargerIsraelipopulationunderHamasthreat,encouragingIsrael’seffortsonmissiledefensecapabilities.Thepatternisclear:whenHamaslearnedthatitsmilitarybrinkmanshipleadstowidescalefightingwithIsraeltonostrategicavail,itwasnotonlydeterredfromattackingIsrael,butalsorestrainingotherterrorgroupsfromdoingsooutofGaza.Atthesametime,Hamasconstantly explores newways to overcome IDF defenses and countermeasures and tochallengeIsrael“underthethresholdofwar”.Buildingitsmilitarypower,withspecialstresstocross-borderattacktunnels,navalcommando,undergroundrocketry,andsubterraneanfacilities,isstillahighpriority,eveninharshfinancialconditions.



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The Israeli-Palestinian Calendar TheIsraeldefensecalendarwasgraduallymoldedbytheanniversariesofhistoricalevents,makingthespring-summermonthsatypicalperiodofhighsensitivity.JewishPassoverinMarch-April,followedbyPalestinianLandDay(30March),Israel’sIndependenceDay(April-May),PalestinianPrisoners’Day(17April)PalestinianNakbaday(15May)andNaksaDay(5June),andthisyearalsotheholyMuslimmonthofRamadan,withtheIranianQodsDayon its lastFriday.Yearbyyear, thisperiod featurednewchallenges,butanewpatternemergedaftertheregionalturmoilbrokeout,andaspopulardemonstrationsagainsttheArabregimesspreadacrosstheMiddleEast.Towards mid-May 2011, a social media campaign called for a “March of Return” into“Palestinianoccupiedlands”.Importantly,thePalestinianconceptof“Return”clearlyseekstoundothe1948-9warresults,andsoincorporatesIsrael’seliminationanddisappearance.ThatMay, the Syrian regime arranged for amass Palestinian crowd, breaching Israel’sborderfencewithSyria,andbreakingintothevillageofMajdalShams.Fourpeoplewerekilledintheevent,andtherestwerepeacefullyreturnedtoSyria,butnohostilitiesbrokebetweentheassailantsandthe localcommunity,which isDruzeandnot Jewish.At thesameperiod,LebaneseHizbullaharrangedamass-crownborderattacknearMarounEr-RasinLebanon.10attackerswerekilledtryingtobreachtheborderfence.AmonthlateranotherfencebreakthroughattemptwasfoiledfromSyria,leaving13deadingunfireandminefieldcasualties. InGazathemaineventtookplaceneartheErezcrossing,andonePalestinianwas killed by IDF. Similar “marches” from Jordanwere kept away from theborderbyJordanianArmedForces,withonekilled.EgyptianArmedforcesdispersedthecrowdgatheredonGaza’sRafahborder.2012and2013sawfewer incidentsonsmallerscale,with little friction. After these costly failures, the attempted border-mass-crowd-attackwastemporarilyputtorest.

The Current Palestinian Context Thedual-headedPalestiniansystemisfacingadoubledeadlock.ThePA,seeminglycallingforapoliticalsettlementof theconflict, isactuallyneitherablenorwillingtoengage inmeaningful bilateral negotiationsor in real statesmanship, preferringdeclarativeblamegames and Internationalization. President Abbas is nearing the end of his term, andsuccessionalreadyparalyzesandwillpossiblydestabilizethePAforthenextseveralyears.Hamas,rallyingbehindthearmedresistanceflag, isdeterredfrommilitaryconflictwithIsrael,isolatedfromexternalbacking,andunderimmensepressuresduetoitsfailuretoprovidetheneedsofitspopulace.Withthe“peaceprocess”pathblockedbyaparalyzedPAleadership’slongevityandsuccessionstrugglesforthecomingyears,andthe“armedresistance”pathblocked by theHamas’ glorious failureof itsGazaproject in strategy,militaryandeconomy,thebifurcatedPalestiniansystemisfacingdeadendsonbothpathsoftheforkjunction.



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The Gaza situation Gazacontinuestofaceamultidimensionalcrisis(unemployment,power,water,sewage)exacerbatingthesecurityvolatility.TheWorldBankandothersreportfurtherdeteriorationof itseconomy,with0.5%growth in2017against8%in2016,donationsdroppingfrom$400millionto$55andyouthunemploymentnearing60%.Economic,social,andpoliticalpressure is certainlyon the rise.According tostudies releasedbyOCHA1and the INSS2,availabledrinkingwaterisdecliningandincreasinghealthrisk.ThePA-Hamasrivalryonlyexacerbatestheresourcescarcityandputsadditionalobstaclesinthewayoftheshorteninglineofdonors,thelatterparadoxicallyencouragedbyIsraeltosupporttheGazastabilizationefforts.Acceleratingthecrisis,PAhadcutmuchofitsfundingandsalariespreviouslypaidtothestrip,andsocorneredHamas,itsmainrivalfaction.Thistookplaceagainstthebackdropofongoing“reconciliation”efforts,mediatedbyEgyptianGeneralIntelligenceseniors,probablyinconcertwithIsrael.Theeffortshitahardrockasthe PA PrimeMinister’s and Chief of Intelligence’s convoy was attacked by IEDs uponenteringGazaonMarch13th.Laterthatday,representativesfrom19countries,includingmostGCCmembers, theEUand IsraelpartookaWhitehousesessionaboutthecrisis inGaza,whichthePAchosenotto join, inprotestofTrump’srecognitionof JerusalemasIsrael’scapital,andhisdeclaredplantomovetheUSembassythereinmid-May.PresidentSisiandKSAcrownprincediscussingSinaidevelopmentprojectsmaysignal“outofthesandbox”approachestostabilizingbothSinaiandGaza.

Hamas Ends, Ways & Means Hamas predicament as a governing entity inGaza is evident. Failing to provide for thepopulace’s needs, politically isolated, militarily deterred from wide escalation, andsufferingfromlittleattention,issoughtnewwaysoutofthestrait,undergrowinginternalpressures.Hamasisalsounderextremepressurebythecombinedweightofitsisolation,itspolicyfailures,IsraeliclosureandPA’spunitivestepsandfundswithholding.Thesocio-economic pressures in the Strip are mounting and starting to turn against Hamas’government,butstillnotanimminentthreattoitsgriponGaza.FailingtopushIsraelintoalleviatingitsplight,Hamasisconstantlyseekingalternativepathstorocktheboatwithoutcapsizingintounwarrantedwar.Strategically,Hamasgoalsinthespring-summerclashesareseveral:Internally,todeflectthepublicpressuretowardsIsrael.Politically,toreclaimnationalleadershipandrelevanceagainstthePA,whileupholdingthehighcauseofReturn,astrongsymbolofPalestiniannationalism. Externally, to apply pressure on Israel tomake concessions towardsGaza,tarnishIsrael,harmitsinternationalreputationandposture,driveawedgebetweenitandits supporters in theWest, especially US Jewry.Militarily, to degrade Israel’s counter-



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tunneling and fence-building projects,which are deprivingHamas of itsmain offensiveassets, andalso to cripple Israel’s freedomofoperationby leveragingexternal politicalpressures,keepinginmindtheGoldstonereportofthe2009campaign.Atthesametime,Hamasseekstoallowitsmilitarywingtodemonstrateitsvalue,withothercontenderstothearmedresistancechampionshipinmind:PalestinianIslamicJihad(PIJ),Islamistradicals,etc.AsearlyasJanuary2018,“TheBigMarchofReturn”FacebookpagewaslaunchedbyHamasandPIJ.Theconceptwastoholdanongoing“CampofReturn”neartheborder,andlaunch“civil,nonviolent”mass-crowd-protestparadestowardstheborder,attemptingtobreachtheborderifpossible.ApossiblesourceofinspirationwasperhapsMorocco’sGreenMarchof1975intoWesternSahara.The70thanniversaryofthe1948war(Israel’sindependenceandPalestinianNakba)providedacleargoalforHamas’splanning.TheUSembassymovewasonlyaddedasalatesupplementafteritwasannounced.Hamasconceptwastousethemasscrowdtwofold:strategically,toframethedynamicina civil-right, non-violent protest situation, imprinting an “internal-order-freedom ofspeech” context for foreign observers. Operationally, the mass-camps availed mass-crowds,servingascivilianscreenandhumanshieldforthearmedterrorteams.Hamaswaysandmeanstoemployitsdesigndevelopedoverthecourseoftime.Theinitialstatementswerefollowedbyconcretesteps.EarlyoperationsincludedaheightenedrateofIEDattacks(Mid-February)andinfiltrationattemptintoIsrael(lastweekofMarch),someof them involving attacks on IDF counter-tunnel infrastructure. Early “protests” on thefencealsoservedascoverforIEDattacks.Main Hamas efforts were made on Fridays, using the traditional weekly prayers as alaunchingpad.ThecrowdwasbroughttothesitesbyHamas,someofitpaidtotakehigherrisk.Hamas’stightcontrolofeventswasdemonstratedbothbyleadershippresence,bythequickdispersionofpublicprotestagainstHamas insideurbanGaza, andby thedistinctFriday“pulses”of theviolentwaves.Participationofchildren,womenandhandicappedpersonswaspervasive,seekingtomaximizethe“civilian”faceofthedynamicandthehighvisibility casualties for propaganda purposes. At least one case was exposed, in whichHamasleadershippayedafamilytofalselyclaimitsbaby-girl,whodiedfromadisease,waskilledbyIDFteargas.Operationally,Hamasprepareditsoperationstoincludemass-crowdscreensapproachingtheborderfenceonmultiplelocationsalongtheIsraelborder.Someofthe“protesters”usedslingshots,firebombs,rocksandother“riot”gear.Embeddedwithinthe“unarmed”crowdwereHamasarmedteams,includingriflemen,snipers,IEDandgrenadethrowers,andbreachingteamswithwire-cutters.Lateradditionswereburningtirestosmoke-screentheattackersandmirrorstoblindIDFtroops.Insomecases,Hamasfighterstriedtoattachchainstothefenceanddragitdownwithatowingvehicle.Anextensivephotographyandmediapresencewasstationedtoexploitmaterialsserving thestrategic-politicalcauses.Manycasesweredocumentedwith“Paliwood”scenes,orchestratingfakevisualsformediaconsumption.



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Themainidea,asclearlystatedbyHamasleadership,wastobreachtheborderfenceunderthemass-crowdassault,stormthe IDFtroopsbehind itandoverwhelmthem,andthenadvancetothenearbyvillagesandcommunities,residingjusthundredsofmetersaway.Masskilling,abductionandhostagetakingwouldserveHamasasapopular featamongPalestinians,allowtoughnegotiationswithIsraelonprisonerreleaseandGazaconcessions,andunderminetheIsraeligovernmentamongitsterrorizedpublic.Afallbackachievementwould be to produce a mass-casualty scene, in which IDF fells hundreds of “unarmedPalestinians”,evokingglobaloutcry.Afamous“resistance”Jihadistoncesaid:“Ifwekillyou,wewin;Ifyoukillus,wewin”.Hamasleadershipwasonlyfollowingthislogic.ThehybridnatureofHamasconceptisatypicalexampleofthegreytwilightwarfareofourtimes:enjoyingthelethalpunchofarmedterrorattackandthelegitimatecloakof“civilianunarmedcrowd”,intentionallyblurringthedistinctionbetweenthetwo.

Source:IDFSpokespersonUnit



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Israel’s Policy Goals Israel’spolicyisdeadlockedbetweenmultiple,seeminglycontradicting,goals:seekingtoweakenHamas,whilebenefittingfromthePalestiniansystem’ssplit;deterringHamasfromattackingIsraelwhileavoidingwarandre-occupationofGaza;preventingHamas’militarybuildupwhile avoiding humanitarian crisis; seeking amore substantial PA role in GazaagainstaweakandresentfulAbu-Mazen;Israeldefenseestablishmentoftenrecommendsseparatingterror fromthegeneralpopulationanddecreasingescalatoryspiralsthroughrestrained force employment (minimum casualties) combined with economic positivesteps.Israel’sgovernment,everattentivetoitsbase’spoliticsandright-wingoutflankingmaneuvers,sofarexplicitlyresiststhedefenseestablishmentrecommendationstoallowthe Strip more breathing space, but implicitly may be ready to work in this directionthroughEgypt.Two Israelicitizensheld inGazaandtwobodyremainsof IDFKIAs from2009areaGoalpreconditiontoprogressonimprovingtheGazasituation.

IDF Military Response TaskedbythegovernmenttoprotectIsrael’spopulaceandsovereignty,andtoavoidwidescaleescalation,theIDFpreparedtomeetthechallenge.FullyawareofHamasdesigns,theIDFdesigned itsownresponse.Early IDF intelligencehadshed lightonHamasplans: tobreachtheborderfence,killIDFsoldiersandabductthem,proceedtonearbycommunities,andinflictmasskillingandhostagetakingonsovereignIsraelisoil.TheIDFresponsewasdesignedaccordingly,severaltiersdeep,withaclearpurpose:tofoilHamas plans, protect Israeli civilian communities, defend Israel’s border, avoid owncasualtieswhileminimizing the enemy’s, deflect propaganda damages, and avoidwideescalation.Themulti-tieroperationalconceptoftheIDFcomprisedofthefollowingelements:

1. Continuousintelligenceefforts,providingsituationalawarenessandearlywarning,andexposingenemyplans.

2. Preparingthetheater,theIDFerectedaforwardbarbed-concertinaabouta100mintoGaza,creatingaclearobstaclebeforethefinalborderfence. In Israel,earthbermsweremountedbehindtheborderfence,creatingathirdlineofdefenseandprovidingcoveragainstenemyfire.

3. Communication and outreach operations, seeking to thin out mass crowds bywarnings, sent by leaflets, phones, textmessages, traditional and social media.PhonecallswereevenmadetoGazanbusdriversdissuadingthemfromshuttlingthemassestotheborderareas.



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4. Seeking to keep the crowds as far from the border as possible, through publicannouncement,leaflets,andnon-lethalriotcontrolmeans,suchasteargas,widelydispensed from across the fence, and also from above by advanced droneapplication.

5. Stoppingenemyeffortsfrombreachingtheborderobstaclebyselectivelysnipingat armed enemy personnel and those identified while actively busy in cutting,dragging, burning, exploding or otherwise opening passages in Israel’s borderobstaclesystem.

6. Disruptingand thwartingmasscrowdassaults towards theborderobstaclesandthroughopeningsbreached in them,with combinationofnon-lethal (gas,watercannons) and selective sniping against enemy command elements leading themasses.

7. A Second line of defense inside Israel, ready to stopmass-breakthrough of theenemyintoIsrael,combiningriotpoliceandlargeregulararmyunits.

8. AThirdlineofdefensearoundtheIsraelibordercommunities,providingperimeterprotectionasafinalandlastresort,shouldallelsefail.

9. Documentation andmedia engagement, to provide the public opinionwith realfactual visuals andproofof enemy conduct, unveiling the truenatureofHamaseffortsandexposingitslies,fabricationandmediamanipulationcampaigning.

10. Realtimefact-findingandinvestigationteam,headedbyageneral,tocheckandlookintoeveryoperationalcaseofallegedmisconduct,handingproblematiccasestotheIDFattorneygeneralunit.

Live Fire ItisimportanttopointouttheuniquefeaturesofthesecuritychallengefacingIsraelinthiscontext. Most riot control efforts in the world take place within a domestic context,between a local government and its citizens. Operationally, the crowd and the riot-controllerssharethesame,typicallyurban,space,andhenceareincloserangesfromeachother, thegovernmentforcesoperating ina“stand in”posture.Thisenablestheuseofshort rangenon-lethalmunitions (teargas,water cannon,beanbag, rubber),andclosequartersmeans,suchasbatonsandcavalry.TheGazachallengeisauniquesituationglobally,differingonalmosteveryparameter:thecrowd is a mixture of enemy populace and enemy armed terrorists. Close encountersbetweenIDFandthecrowdentaildirectmortalthreattotroops’lives,andsubsequently,Israelicivilianlives.Thedefenseeffortsaretakingplaceinastandoffsituation,inrelativelylongdistanceandwithobstacleskeepingthepartiesapartintwoseparatespaces,acrossan international border. This unique setup rulesout closequarter, lower lethality, highcontactmethods,suchascavalry,anddiminishestheefficacyofmanyshortrangenon-lethalmeasures.Determinedenemyeffortstobreachtheborderobstaclesdespitenon-lethalmeasuresincreasethenecessaryuseoflivefireasalastresort.



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Successful Hamas armed terrorist teams embedded in ragingmass-crowd-attackwave,across Israel’sborderobstacles, inclosecontactmeleewith IDF troopsanden-route toIsraelicommunitieswouldleaveIDFwiththeonlyoneoption:massiveuseoflivefire.Theexpected result would inevitably have been dozens of dead IDF soldiers, and manyhundreds among the Palestinian assailants. Successful hostage taking by Hamas or PIJwouldhavemostprobablyleadtoawidescaleescalation,withthousandsofdeathsandmanymoreinjured.Hence,betweenthelimitedeffectofnon-lethalmeasures,andthemassiveuseoflivefireleadingtohundredsofdeaths,selectivesnipingprovideda“before-lastresort”solution.Tactically, it allowed IDF to neutralize themost dangerous Hamas breaching elements,commandpersonnel,identifiedarmedteams,IEDthrowers,etc.Thesnipers’orderswereto aim to lower legs, trying to avoid lethal injuries. Themultiple leg and foot injuriesreported by the Palestinians are another testament to that guidance being enacted.However, itwasnot the sniper’s authority to call the shots. The IDF snipingeffortwastightlycontrolledbyaspecialchainofcommand.Everysniperwascontrolledbyaseniorcommandingofficerinthefield,issuingexactfiringpermissionsbasedonthestringentIDFdirectionsandhismomentarysituationaljudgmentatthepointofaction.

IDFsnipersandauthorizingcommanders.Photo:IDFSpokesperson'sUnit

Thatbeingsaid,withblacktiresmokeandteargascreatinga“fogofwar”,whileenemyterroristsareembeddedamongamassivecrowd,notallsnipingcasualtiesweredefinitelyintentional.Straybulletsandricochetcausedcollateralcasualties,andevenfatalities.Thelargecasualtynumbersneedtobejudgedagainstthemulti-location,mass-crowd,weekafterweekattemptsbyHamastobreakthroughIsrael’sborder.Thehumancostwasheavy



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andregrettable,butunfortunately,otherforceemploymentalternativewouldhavecausedanevenheaviertoll.Thus,unliketheimpressionHamasseekstocreate,thelivefireelement,usuallyaccusedof being inappropriate, disproportionate, and needlessly lethal, was used by the IDFsparingly,inatightlycontrolledmanner,whennon-lethalmeasuresliterallyfellshort,andasalessereviltoalastresortintensivefireagainstahybridterrorandmass-crowdcrossborderattack.

The Battlefield Unfolding: Between the “March of Return”, “Tires’ Friday” and Nakba Day TheIED-ProtestsCombo:OnMarch15th,anIDFpatrolwastargetedbyanIEDattackneartheGazasecurityfence,thethirdincidentinthepreviousweeks.TherecognizedpatternimpliesthattheIEDswerelaidduringthemassweekend“protests”organizedbyHamas,asaseeminglyunarmedpressurechannelon Israel,andaventingvalvetoHamas’owninternal pressures. Some reports assessed that theMarch 30th (“LandDay”) “protests”wouldincludeexplosivechargestobreachthefenceandallowamassbreakoutintoIsrael.Hamasalsodeclared its intent toencouragecamp-outs,massivecrowdsand“protests”nearthefencethroughoutthecominganniversaries(LandDay,Prisoners’Day,NakbaDay,NaksaDay),withthespecialsymbolismofthe70thanniversaryof1948events.Despitetheclearpotentialforescalationinclear,Hamaschosebrinkmanshipoverprudence.ThenextweekssawHamasencouragingthepopular“MarchofReturn”,seekingongoingmass civilianpresence,protests, anddemonstrationsnear theborder fencewith Israel.RisingfrictionwithIDFwassoughtthroughaseriesofIEDattacks,borderinfiltrationsandmilitaryexercises,duringwhichHamasmachinegunfireinvokedballisticalarmsinIsraelisoutherntownsand20IronDomeinterceptors(worth$1-2m)beinglaunched.

Graph1:IEDattackandinfiltrationattemptsbetweenFebruary-May(Fridayclashesexcluded)

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Friday30Marchwasthefirstofficialdayofthe“MarchofReturn”inGaza.Alargecrowdof 40,000 gathered along the border fences in what the Palestinians described as a“peaceful demonstration”. Israel faced a combined political-military challenge,spearheadedbyHamasmilitarycadresoperatingamongmassiveunarmedciviliancrowds.Hamas planned and attempted to shoot IDF troops, to breach the border fencewithexplosives,toleadamass-popular assaultintoIsrael,andtoexecuteterroroperations,includinghostagetakingagainstIDFtroopsandamongIsraelibordercommunities.Attheendof the first twoFridaysbothsideswerecontentwithaccomplishing theirparallel-warfareobjectives3.

IDFsuccessfullyandforcefullyfoiledPalestinianphysicalattemptstobreakintosovereignterritoryandcauseIsraelicasualties,leaving29Palestiniansdeadandhundredswounded.Atthatstage,roughlyathirdofthedeadwereconfidentlyidentifiedasHamasmilitaryoperatives;twothirdswerehitonthefirstFriday.ThefollowingFridaysawHamasfewermilitaryoperativesinforwardpositions,thecrowdshrinkingto20,000andthenumberofdeathshalvedto9.TheprotestattractionandswellwereshrinkinginthefaceofIsrael’seffective response. Over the following Fridays, both crowd size and casualties havedroppeddramatically.TheSyrianeventsdrewmost internationalattentionnorthwardsandawayfromGaza.HamasstilltriedtoridetheApril-Mayanniversaries’wavesandfanthepopularembersintoflamesagainstIsrael,andtheMay14theventswerealastattempt(sofar)toexecutetheoriginaldesign.Crowdsizeagaingrewto35,000,extremeeffortsweremadebyHamastoactuallybreachthefence,andthePalestiniandeathtollpeaked



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to62.Hamasleadership,addressingitsownpublic,praisedthe50Hamasmartyrsoftheday, hence unveiling the true face of the so called “civilian parades”. The nextweeksattestedthatthisoperationalpatternwasdeemedafailurebyHamas,whichdramaticallydropped the crowd numbers, and with them the attempted breaches and resultingdeaths. The tidemayhave just turned, and as Egyptianpolitical efforts andeconomicgesturesfromIsraelwenton,Hamasturnstoseekotherchannelstoeaseupitsplight.

Graph2:Palestinianmass-crowdandfatalities(February-June8)

Ontheinternationalpublictheater,Israelfacedatougherchallenge.Eventdrivenmediaandpolitics,alwayseagertoreinforcetheirlong-heldpositionswithfirstimpressivevisualsand easy-to-sell gore,were quick to buyHamas’smanipulated visuals, part-truths, andsuperficial spins. Accordingly, fast judgements were made, and blame addressed aspromptly.Hamasthusdeclaredvictory,turningitscasualtiesintopoliticalcapital,imposingpolitical and reputational costs on Israel and fanning criticism towards it onwhatwaspresentedasanexcessiveuseoflethalforceagainstunarmedcivilians.Mostimportantly,it succeeded inreturningGazato internationalattention,all thewaytotheUNSC,everreadytoskewIsraelandgrillit,barredonlybyaUSveto.

After 14 May: Back to IEDs, Mortars and Rockets Hamas’s“ParadeofReturn”borderchallengetoIsraelfailedbothinitselfandasapopularcamouflagetoaterrorassault. ItspoliticalmomentumculminatinginaUNSCresolutionagainstIsraelwasthwartedbyaUSveto,butitstillprovidedstrongbackwindtocancellingtheplannedSoccergamewithArgentina’snationalteam.Hamas’sapparentmediasuccesshasthusproventobebuta fleetingmoment,as littleglobal trustremained inHamas’salleged “peaceful demonstrations”. Hamas attempts to run the “protest” card thuscontinue,butonlowerkeys,seekingalternativestostormingtheborderen-mass.

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ThenextweekssawnewstepsinGaza’songoingpredicament,peakingonMay29thBattleday.Seekingnewventstoitspressures,HamasallowedPIJtogoaheadwithattemptedIEDattacks.Thetacticaltailwaggedthestrategicdog,as IDFresponsekilled3PIJmen,andperhaps with Iran’s encouragement, evoked PIJ retaliation by mortar fire. Strike andcounterfire,includingHamasrocketlaunching,escalatedthroughthedayandnightuntilterminatedbyEgyptianmediation,theseveresteruptionsince2014.IDFstrikescausednocasualtiesinGaza,indicatingextremeIDFcautiontoallowde-escalation.Israel’spoliticianscompetedinthemediaonwhocallsfortougheststeps,whilethecabinetquietlychosetocall it a day and later vocally denied that it had anything to do with Egypt success inachievingaceasefire.Additionalrocketslaunchedby“rogues”inJune3indicateHamas’unansweredissues,awaitingprogress.

Can’t punch through the Fence? Hamas Arson Kites, IED, Balloons and other means AsJunenearsitsend,Hamasstillsuffersfromthesameknownpressures,stillseekingnewwaystopushIsraelintoconcessions.Itsfencechallengesaregraduallydecreasing,facingoperational failure, high casualties and limited political gains; another potential line ofattack is Hamas capabilities in Lebanon. These stress the Iran-Hizbullah-Gaza axis’sdestabilizinginfluence,addingtotheleadingIranianproxyinGaza,PIJ,whohadplayedamajor role in the last battle day with Israel on May 29. “Over and above the fence”approach is implementedby IED, incendiary kitesandballoonsas the tool-de-jour, andfarmlandfiresbecameburningroutine,pepperedbyoccasionalrocketlaunches;AwaveofincendiarykitesissentfromGaza,emblazinghundredsoffiresinfieldsandnaturalreservesintheNegev,acheapandcreativeapplicationofSunTsu’s“AttackbyFire”withnowadays’“weaponizeeverything” fashion. Israel’smedia is busydescribing the IDFhi-techdroneresponse to the low-tech poormen’s threat, the techno-tactical level always capturingpeoples’imaginationandinterest.Israel’s response to the cheap flying weapons was typical: on the military level, theexpected learningcurveagainst thenew low-tech threatswassteep: first,bya techno-tactical approach, with IDF’s kite-counter-measures by drones; next, by initial warningstrikes against attack-kite-launching teams, now legally considered “kosher” militarytargets.4While“directapproach”cabinetmemberspubliclycalledforstrikesonthekite-launchingteams,thePMandMoDoptedfortheIDFproposedindirectapproach,sendingfirstwarningstrikesnearthekite-teams,butmostlystrikingotherHamasmilitarytargetsas a deterringmessage. Among those targets, a new focus area is noteworthy: Hamasnaval-commandounit,sufferingrecurringstrikesonitsinfrastructure,includingthelatestcoast-seatunnel.TheseindicatebothHamas’ongoingeffortstodevelopnew“aroundthe



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fence”attackaxesintoIsrael,andthelatter’srelentlesscounterefforts,combiningqualityintel,precisionstrikesofopportunity,aswellasbuildingaspecialcoastalobstacle5.All that said, Israel’s strategic level response remainedseeminglyunchanged,when thecabinet again publicly rejected the IDF recommendation to allow some relief to Gaza.However,asignificantchannelisevidentlyatplayinCairo,explainingwhythelow-flameroutine has so far been kept from full-scale eruption of hostilities, Israel’s governmentdenialsnotwithstanding.Atthesametime,italsocreatesthebestpotentialfortemporarilyandpartiallydefusingthetensions,byaddressingsomeofIsrael’sdemandsonthelowerendof“disarmament”andsomeofHamas’demandsforrelief.Widerarrangementsmayfollow,andCairo’sceasefiresuccessmayreflectafirststepinthatdirection.

Conclusion Militarily, the IDF can conclude its mission successfully accomplished, at least partly:Hamas’songoingfrictionalongthefenceandrecurringattemptstobreach it into Israelwereallfoiled,thensubsidedabruptly.ThegrandHamasplantobreakthroughintoIsraelandexecuteamasskillingandhostagetakingspreeamongIsraeliciviliansandtroopswasthoroughlythwarted.Themilitary/non-combatantratioamongPalestinianassailants(50outof62killedinthebloodiestdaysofar,byHamas’sownadmission)reflectsdistinctiveforce employment by IDF in very demanding conditions. All this,while the both close-quartersandstand-offnatureofthefrictionresultedinnoseriouscasualtiesamongIsrael’stroopsandcivilians.Strategically,Hamasachievedutterlymodestrealgainsofitshighestprioritygoals,mainlyalleviatingGaza’sresourcescarcityanditsgovernancechallenges.However,ithasindeedgainedsomegroundredrawingglobalattentiontoGaza.Bynature,thisattentionisknowntobe fleeting.Moreover, justasan inefficient light-bulb,mostof thebuzzingenergy isspentgeneratingheat(anti-Israelrhetoricandpressures)ratherthanlight(reliefforGaza),theformerhardlycorrelatedtothelatter.SomeindicationsmayshowthatIsraelandEgyptquietly agreed on decreasingGaza’s pressure (i.e. partially opening the Rafah crossing)whilethreateningHamas’sleadershipquitepersonally.Ifthesestepsareharbingerstoapolicy change is too soon to judge, butwith Israeli politics andHamas’s intransigence,skepticisminthisaspectisoftenadvised.ThePerceptionsandNarrativesfrontieriswherethegameplayeddifferently.Themilitarynarrativedescribedabovewas readily acceptedby themajorityof the Israeli audience,whosepast recordwithHamasandwithGazapredisposes it tosee theeventsasayetanotherchapterintheongoingarmedconflict6.MostArabaudiencesshowedlittleinterest,save weak statements of solidarity. Campaigning Muslim politicians, championed byPremier (read: Sultan) Erdogan of Turkey, were quick to use the “Jewish massacre ofMuslims”card,andblameIsraelwithterrorismandworse.Westernaudiencesandmediawere receptive each to his predisposed narrative: American right-wingers to the Israeldefense factsandexplanations,whileavastmajority in thecenter-leftat leastpartiallyboughtintothewell-brewedandsuperblyservedHamasnarrative.Atitsheart:“apeaceful,



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unarmed parade and demonstrations” were unjustifiably met by IDF excessive force,mainlylethalandindiscriminatelivefire.Inthemediaandperceptionfrontline,HamashaswonthedayandtheIDFfailed,notonlyduetotheunderdog’sadvantagesintheeyeofthebeholder.Overtime,theseresultsmaychangeastheeventscontinuetounfold.InternationalPoliticsandDiplomacyquicklycascadedafterIsrael’slandslidedefeatintheglobal media and audiences, and the UN theater became the usual axe and pitchforkfestivalinpursuitoftheJewishstateanditsforces.ButfortheUSvetoattheUNSC,Israelwouldbefacingdirestraitsdowntheroad.Israelwillprobablyseekminorstepstodeescalatethetension,working inconcertwithEgypt,andmaybealsowithGulfpartners,perhapswiththeWhiteHouseteamworkingtoprimetheregionforthePresident’sPeaceplan.However,thewickedproblemcalledGazaremainscockedandloaded,awaitingthenextspark.Ramadanhasjustbegun,andsummeriscoming.Moreheatwavesareexpected.

***** Brigadiergeneral(Res.)AssafOrionjoinedINSSinlate2015asaseniorresearchfellow,followingalongcareerintheIDF.HeiscurrentlydirectingtheInstitute'sresearchprogramonIsrael-China,headingtheBDSandde-legitimizationprogram,andparticipatingintheprogramsonSyriaandIsrael-Palestinians.InhisfinalpostingintheIDF,Brig.Gen.OrionservedasheadofStrategicDivisioninthePlanningDirectorateintheIDFGeneralStaff(2010-2015),responsibleforstrategicplanningandpolicyformulation,internationalcooperationandmilitarydiplomacy,andliaisontoneighboringmilitariesandpeacekeepingforcesintheregion.HewasinchargeofcommunicationwithUNIFILandtheLebanesearmy,ledstaffmeetingswithcounterpartsfromthePentagonandfromotherWesternmilitaries,tookpartintheUS-Israelsecuritydialogue,andrepresentedtheIDFintalkswiththePalestinians.PriortothatheheadedtwodepartmentsinthePlanningDirectorate,followingmorethantwodecadesincommandandintelligencepositioninIsrael'sNationalSIGINTUnit8200andIsraeliDefenseIntelligence,inSIGINT,OSINT,andinternationalintelligencecooperation.Brig.Gen.OrionholdsaB.A.inArabiclanguageandliteratureandMiddleEasternhistoryfromTelAvivUniversity(1992),andanM.A.fromtheKennedySchoolofGovernmentatHarvardUniversity(2000),theAdvancedCourseonOperationalArt,andtheInternationalIntelligenceDirectors'Course(DISC)inGreatBritain(2005).Hisfieldsofinterestincludenationalandregionalsecurity,appliedstrategy,combinedapproaches,learningsystemsandleadershipchallengesinafast-changingworld.



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Annex 1: Main reports on the Gaza Events and Dynamics February1,2Feb:DespitegrowingpressuresinGaza,thesituationremainedrelativelyquietwiththeexceptionoftworocket launchesfollowedbyanIsraeliairforceresponsestrikeagainsttwoHamas targets.|4 Feb: Israel’sMOD revealed that an attempt to smuggle bomb-makingmaterialsintoGazawasthwarted|12Feb:AsongoingHamaseffortsarefocusingonterrorattempts in Judea,Samaria,andwithin Israel, IsraelSecurityAgency (ISA)andIsraelPolicereleasedthattwomensuspectedofhavingbeenrecruitedforHamasactivitythroughTurkeywerearrested lastmonth.|17Feb: IEDattack (4 IDFwounded)onthefenceeastofKhanYunis,probablyplacedduringtheborder“protests”adayearlier.ThePopularResistanceCommittees,anallianceoffightersfromvariousGazanationalistandIslamistPalestiniangroups,claimedresponsibilityfortheattack7;Inresponse,Israelstruck18targetsinGaza,includinganattacktunnel,andonthedayafterstruckanothertunnel,followingarocket launchedintoIsrael.8|18Feb. IAFstrikesanothertunnelfollowingarocket fired into Israel.9 | 23 Feb. Orchestrated by Hamas, hundreds of PalestiniansdemonstratedinfivedifferentlocationsonGazaborder.10March1March: IDFneutralizedanother IEDon theGazaborder fence.11|3March: Egyptiandelegation met senior Hamas officials in Gaza; warned of another escalation;12 APalestinianwasshotandkilledbytheIDFnearthefenceinSouthernGaza.13|4March:PAPMHamdallahclaimedobstaclestoreconciliationremovedthrough2018budget.14,15|5March:IDFSouthernCommander:“HamasgettingclosertoIran&Hezbollah”.16|9March:SeniorHamasleaderHaniyyeh:massdemonstrationswillbeheldinGazatomark‘NakbaDay’andtoprotestUSembassymovetoJerusalem.17|13March:WhiteHousemeetingonGaza crisis, while reports expect its peace plan to be launched soon;18 | IED targetedPalestinianPMHamdallah&IntelChiefFarajwhilevisitingGaza.19|15March:IDFpatroltargetedbyIEDattackinnorthernGaza-nocasualties.2017March:IDFneutralizedanotherIEDontheGazaborderfence(5thincidentinthreemonths)21|18March:TwoGazatunnelsdestroyedbyIDF22|22March:HamasseeksalliancewithIranandHezbollahtofoilTrumppeaceplan23;Hamasplansmassdemonstrationneartheborderfencetodemand‘RightOfReturn’,24Hamaskillstwo“suspects”inPMHamdallah’sassassinationattempt25|24,27,28, 29March: Four Palestinians infiltrated into Israel and escapedback toGaza; Threearmed Palestinians from Gaza infiltrated deep into Israel before being arrested26, OnePalestiniantriedtoinfiltrateintoIsraelfromGaza,caughtbyIDF27,TwoPalestiniansfromGazatriedtoinfiltrateintoIsrael,fourthincidentinaweek.28|24March:IDFrespondedtotheMarch27thinfiltrationwithanairstrikeagainstaHamastrainingcamp29|25March:HamasdrilltriggeredbarrageofIDFIronDomeinterceptors3028March:AsEgyptpressuresforreconciliation,PAIntelChiefheadstoEgyptwith‘evidences’ofHamasresponsibilityofattemptedPMhit.31|30March:‘LandDay’eventsofthe“GreatReturnMarch”began,



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some40,000protesters,19Palestinianskilled,mostofthemwhiletryingtoinfiltrateintoIsrael32April1April:3PalestiniansinfiltratedIsraelbeforebeingarrested33|4April:PIJterrorattackonanIsraeliwarshipfoiledbyIDF,ISS&Police34|5April:PalestiniankilledwhileapproachingGazafenceatnight35|6April:‘TireProtest’Day:some20,000Palestiniansprotesting&burningthousandsoftires;9PalestinianskilledbyIDFforces36|7April:IDFwarnsitwilltargetHamasmilitarypositionsifdamagetothesecurityfencecontinues37|8,9April:3PalestiniansinfiltratedintoIsraelandwerereturnedtotheGazaStrip;IDFstrikesaHamastargetinresponse|10April:IsraelexpandsGazasailingzoneforspringfishingseasonto9nauticalmiles,upfromtheusual638|11;12April:IEDattackagainstanIDFbulldozeronGazaborder39;Inresponse,IAFstruckaHamasmilitarytrainingbase;MGfirefromGazatriggered‘RedAlert’andcausedminordamagestoIsraelihouses.40|13April:Thirdweekof Gaza border protests, 10,000 protesters – Palestinians report 1 killed and hundredswounded by Israeli fire41 | 15 April: Israel destroys fifth, ‘longest and deepest’ Gazatunnel42, then liftsveilof IDFoperationalcounter tunneling lab43|16;23April:Blazingkites fromGaza set fire to Israeliwheat fields44|18April:Truckbombattack foiledonIsrael’sIndependenceDay45|20April:FourthFridayofGazaProtests,~3,000protesters,Palestiniansreport4killedand156wounded4621April:HamasscientistFadiEl-Batshshotdead in Malaysia, PIJ blamesMossad for assassination47| 22 April: Intel Minister KatzthreatensHamas:terrorattacksabroadwillbemetwithleadershiptargeting48|27April:Fifth Friday of Gaza “Protests”, ~10,000 crowded, Palestinians report 4 killed and 349wounded49; IDF struck Hamas targets following damage to the fence50 | 29 April: 3PalestiniansattemptingtoinfiltrateintoIsraelshotdead51May1May:IDFCOSEisenkot:HamasabductionattemptsonGazaborderthwartedinthelastfewweeks52|2May:Israel’sGovernmenttoHighCourtpetition:“Gazaprotests”arepartoftheStateofWarwithHamas,humanrightslawnotapplicable53;IncendiarykitescausemassivefiresinIsrael54|4May:AbbasreelectedasPalestinianPresidentbyPNC55;SixthFriday of Gaza clashes, ~10,000 crowded, Palestinians report 431 wounded and nofatalities, set fire togasand fuel installation inKeremShalomcrossing56|5May: IsraelstrikesHamaspostinresponsetoGazanincendiarykitesdamages57|6May:3Gazansshotdeadwhileattemptingtosabotagesecurityinfrastructures58|7May:“Hamaswillingtonegotiatelong-termtrucewithIsrael”59|11May:PalestiniansrioterssetfiretogaspipesatKeremShalomcrossingforthesecondtimeindays60|12May:MoDshutdownKeremShalom crossing due to the destruction61, IDF destroyed half-mile-long terror tunnelapproaching Kibbutz Erez, the 9th tunnel destroyed in recent months62 | 14 May:Palestinian Nakba Day, ~35,000 crowded, Palestinians report 62 killed and 2770wounded63 |16May:Hamasseniorofficialsays50ofGaza‘Martyrs’killedwereHamasmembers64 | 18 May: Egypt and Qatar seek long-term Gaza ceasefire and Hamasdisarmament65; Egypt to keep the Rafah crossing open for Ramadan66; UNHR calls forinternational inquiry inGaza67|20May:PalestinianPresidentAbbas taken tohospital,thirdtimeinaweek68;APalestiniansethimselfinfireduetoeconomicsituationandtoprotestagainstthegovernmentinGaza69|21May:HamasleaderYahyaSinwarsaysthatIransuppliedHamaswith“money,equipment,&expertise”andthatHamashas"excellent"



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relationsandcoordinationwithHizbullah70|22May: IsraelisecurityestablishmentseesthebeginningoftheendofAbbaserawhilehishealthdeteriorates71;PalestiniansfromGaza infiltrated into Israel, set andempty IDFoutposton fire72|23May: IDF strikesaHamas tunnel innorthernGaza and2Hamasnaval targets73| 27May: IDF strikesPIJoutpost in response to IED attack, 3 PIJ members killed74 | 28 May: Explosive dronelaunched from Gaza found in Israel75; Israel strikes Hamas post after infiltration fromGaza76;MachinegunfirefromGazahitsSderot77|29May:BattleDayinGaza,Hamas&PIJfire~70mortarsandrockets intosouthernIsrael; IDFrespondswithairstrikesacrossGaza78; Israeli Navy stops outgoing Gaza “flotilla”79 | 30 May: Israel agrees to Cairo-mediated cease-fire, “shifting focus back to Northern border threats”80| 31May: IDF(SouthernCommander):ConditionsripeforanagreementwithHamas81June1June:10thFridayprotestsinGaza,Palestiniansreportonefemaleparamedickilledand100 wounded82; 122,000 Palestinians in Jerusalem for Ramadan prayers83; U.S. vetoesUNSC“grosslyone-sided”resolutiononGaza84 |2June:RenewedrocketfirefromGazainto Israel | 3 June: Israel strikes 15 Hamas targets after rocket fire85 | 4 June: IDFinterceptedhundredsofGaza’sincendiarykites86|5June:PalestinianNaksaDay;Israelseeks to avert a humanitarian crisis in Gaza87 | 8 June: 11th Friday protests in Gaza;PalestinianNaksa Day, ~10,000 crowded; Palestinians report four killed and over 600wounded88|9June:Followingincessantfieldfires,anIDFaircraftfiredawarningshottodriveawayacellpreparingtolaunchincendiarykites89;“HamascontrolstheGazaStripbuttheescalationistunedbythePIJ”90 |10June:“Relativecalmsince2014isover,Hamaswillcontinue to protest this upcoming summer”91; Israel destroyed a Hamas Frogmen’sunderwatertunnel92;IsraelisecuritycabinetmeetingonGazaeconomy,nonewdecisionstaken despite defense officials' warnings of an economic collapse in Gaza93| 11 June: ~1,500Palestinianprotesters inRamallahdemandend toPA sanctionsonGaza94; “PMNetanyahu and theWhite House acting to drivewedge between Palestinians and GulfStates”95|12June:KushnertovisitIsraelnextweektodiscussUSpeaceplan96|13June:ISAhasfoiled~250“significantterrorattacks”sinceJanuary,includingsuicidebombings,abductions, and shootings97 | 15 June: POTUS envoys Kushner and Greenblatt discusspeace planwithUN ahead ofMideast visit98|17 June: TwentyHamasmembers fromNablus arrested, planning deadly attacks against Israel, including a Jerusalem suicidebombing99;IDFtargetscarofGazaincendiaryballoonandkite‘cellleader’100;IsraeliNavyproposedsolutionsforaGazaportservices,conditionedonfullcargoscreeningbyIsraelisecurity101; Trump administration to demand Gulf States up to $1 billion for Gazaeconomy102|18June:IDFstrikes9HamastargetsfollowingongoingincendiarykitesfromGaza;shortlyafterwardthreerocketswerefiredfromGazaintoIsrael103

Notes

1Gazaenergycrisis:limitedimprovementinwaterandsanitationindicators;concernsoverwaterbornediseasesremain,OCHA,retrievedfromhttps://www.ochaopt.org/content/gaza-energy-crisis-limited-improvement-water-and-sanitation-indicators-concerns-over2AnatKurz,UdiDekel,andBenedettaBerti(Editors),“TheCrisisoftheGazaStrip:AWayOut”,INSS,January2018,retrievedfromhttp://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/GazaCrisis_ENG-1-190.pdf



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3ASenseofVictoryonBothSides:ARecipeforEscalationinGaza?,http://www.inss.org.il/publication/sense-victory-sides-recipe-escalation-gaza/?offset=2&posts=1042&type=399

https://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-מש ללחימה הוא יכול להיות מטרה צבאית", מנדלבליט: "אם עפיפון מש45290904,00.html 5IsraelbeginsconstructionofGazaseabarrier,https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5272242,00.html&IDFStrikesHamasTerrorTunnelAtSea,https://www.idf.il/en/minisites/hamas/idf-strikes-hamas-terror-tunnel-at-sea/ 6IsraeltoTopCourt:GazaProtestsAreStateofWar,HumanRightsLawDoesn'tApply,https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israel-gaza-protests-are-state-of-war-human-rights-law-doesn-t-apply-1.60527947“IsraeliwarplanespoundGazaafternewrocketattack”,AFP,20/02/2018,retrievedfromhttp://jordantimes.com/news/region/israeli-warplanes-pound-gaza-after-new-rocket-attack,8AnnaAhronheim,“LibermanvowsrevengeforGazafenceblast”,JerusalemPost,19/02/2018,page10.9AnnaAhronheim,“IAFdestroysHamastunnelfollowingfurtherrocketfire”,JerusalemPost,20/02/2018,page410JackKhoury&YanivKubovich,“Over1,000PalestiniansProtestAcrossWestBank,GazaBorder;20ReportedWounded”,Haaretz,23/02/2018,retrievedfromhttps://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-over-1-000-palestinians-protest-in-west-bank-gaza-border-20-wounded-1.5845832

"שבועיים אחרי תקרית הדגל: מטען נוסף נוטרל על גדר המערכת בדרום הרצועה"אמיר בוחבוט ויניב יגנה, "11https://news.walla.co.il/item/3139334

/http://reshet.tv/item/news/politics/security/newsitem-697230המסר לחמאס: 'ההנהגה על הכוונת'", " 12 https://news.walla.co.il/item/3139690"חקלאי פלסטיני נורה למוות בעזה: "צה"ל פתח באש כשעיבד את אדמתו", 13

14https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-overture-to-hamas-pa-includes-20000-of-its-employees-in-budget/ html#autoplay-https://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L.5144106,00תיעוד: כך אנשי חמאס גונבים חשמל מתושבי עזה", "15

16“GOCSouthernCommand:HamasgettingclosertoIran,Hezbollah”,https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5146084,00.html

https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/1.5888495הנייה: לא נוכל לשלוט בעשרות אלפי פלסטינים המוחים נגד המצור", "1718“WhiteHousetomeetonGazacrisisTuesday,asitpreparestounveilpeaceplan”,https://www.timesofisrael.com/white-house-to-meet-on-gaza-crisis-tuesday-as-it-prepares-to-unveil-peace-plan/ 19“ExplosionTargetsPalestinianPrimeMinisterVisitingGaza;AbbasBlamesHamas”,https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/palestinians/explosion-reported-near-convoy-carrying-palestinian-pm-on-gaza-visit-1.5900220

https://news.walla.co.il/item/3142860מטר; ייתכן ששוגר טיל נ"ט", 100התקרית בעזה: שני מטענים הופעלו במרחק "20 https://www.mivzaklive.co.il/archives/159896צה"ל השמיד אותו, –שוב מטען הונח על גדר בצפון הרצועה 21

22IsraeliArmy:TwoGazaTunnelsDestroyedOvernight,https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israeli-army-two-gaza-tunnels-destroyed-overnight-1.5912118 23HamasseekingalliancewithIran,HezbollahtofoilTrumppeaceplan–report,https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-seeking-alliance-with-iran-hezbollah-to-foil-trump-peace-plan-report/24GazaStripInitiative,InCollaborationWithHamas,PalestinianIslamicJihad,AndSupportersOfFatah'sMuhammadDahlan:MassesWillThrongToBorderWithIsraelToDemandRightOfReturn,https://www.memri.org/reports/gaza-strip-initiative-collaboration-hamas-palestinian-islamic-jihad-and-supporters-fatahs

חמדאללה נהרגו בחילופי אש, חשוד שלישי נעצר, -חמאס: שני חשודים בהתנקשות באל 251.5934278-https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/.premium

26ThreePalestiniansArmedWithGrenadesCaughtinIsraelAfterInfiltratingFromGaza,https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israeli-army-finds-traces-of-breach-near-border-with-gaza-1.5954677

https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/1.5957253צה"ל: נעצר פלסטיני ללא נשק שחדר מרצועת עזה ליד זיקים, 2728TwoPalestiniansbreachGazasecurityfenceinfourthincidentinaweek,https://www.timesofisrael.com/two-palestinians-breach-gaza-security-fence-in-fourth-incident-in-a-week/

IDhttps://news.walla.co.il/item/3145199 Fצלצול השכמה לצה"ל: חדירת הפלסטינים היא הסלמה של "המלחמה בגדר", 29-Israeli-http://www.jpost.com/ArabSTRIKESTARGETINGAZASTRIPAFTER4PALESTINIANSCROSSBORDERFENCE,

547001-Strip-Gaza-ni-target-on-strike-confirms-Conflict/IDF30IDF:IronDomefiresmistakenlyinresponsetoHamasdrill,https://www.timesofisrael.com/iron-dome-intercepts-missile-from-gaza-as-sirens-wail-across-southern-israel/ 31PalestinianIntelChieftoHeadtoEgyptWith'Proof'HamasBehindAttemptedHitonPM,https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/palestinian-intel-chief-to-present-proof-hamas-behind-hit-attempt-1.595711632NewsofTerrorismandtheIsraeli-PalestinianConflict(March28–April10,2018),http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/news-terrorism-israeli-palestinian-conflict-march-28-april-10-2018/33ThreeunarmedPalestiniansnabbedcrossingfromGazaintoIsrael,https://www.timesofisrael.com/three-unarmed-palestinians-nabbed-crossing-from-gaza-into-israel/

http://www.israeldefense.co.il/he/node/33724הותר לפרסום: סוכל פיגוע נגד חיל הים, 3435PalestiniankilledbyIsraeli'aircraft'fireonGazaborder,https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/diplomacy-defense/171548-180405-israeli-aircraft-fires-on-armed-palestinian-at-gaza-border-fence



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36AtLeast9ProtestersKilledbyIsraeliFireatGazaBorder,https://www.voanews.com/a/israel-palestinians-protesters-killed/4336674.html

אם יימשכו ניסיונות הפגיעה בגדר, צה"ל יתקוף מהאוויר יעדי חמאס בעת ההפגנות, 371.5977973-https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/.premium

38IsraeltoexpandGazasailingzoneforspringfishingseason,https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-to-expand-gaza-sailing-zone-for-spring-fishing-season/ 39PalestinianssetoffbombnearIDFvehicleinGazabufferzone;armyretaliates,https://www.timesofisrael.com/palestinians-set-off-bomb-against-idf-vehicle-near-gaza-army-retaliates/

מטוסי חיל האוויר תקפו בסיס אימונים של חמאס; קליעים מעזה פגעו בבית בשער הנגב, 40//www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/1.5992645https:

41IDFfacesthirdstraightweekofGazaborderprotests,https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5229186,00.html42Israeldestroys'longestanddeepest'Gazatunnel,http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-4377511043Israelrevealshowit’swinningthebattleagainstHamas’sGazaattacktunnels,https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-reveals-how-its-winning-the-battle-against-hamass-gaza-attack-tunnels/

https://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-ה באש, טרור העפיפונים נמשך: שדה חיטה בעוטף עזה על445232273,00.html#autoplay & BlazingkitesfromGazasetfiretoIsraeliwheatfield,

fields/-wheat-israeli-to-fire-set-gaza-from-kites-https://www.timesofisrael.com/blazing https://news.walla.co.il/item/3151412סוכל פיגוע ביום העצמאות: מטען חבלה אותר במשאית סחורות בשומרון, 45

46PalestiniansReportFourKilled,156WoundedbyIsraeliFireinFourthFridayofGazaProtests,https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/palestinians/gaza-march-of-return-protests-continues-for-fourth-consecutive-we-1.6013144 47PalestinianelectricalengineershotdeadinMalaysia,https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5236433,00.html48KatzthreatensHaniyeh:Terrorattacksabroadwillbemetwithtargetedkillings,https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5237449,00.html

& https://news.walla.co.il/item/3153343נפגעים בעימותים עם צה"ל בגבול עזה, 349-ארבעה הרוגים ו49GazaProtests:'ThreeKilled,174Wounded'asPalestiniansMarchonBorderforFifthWeek ,https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/palestinians/fifth-week-of-gaza-march-of-return-protests-to-begin-1.6033006

https://news.walla.co.il/item/3153536חמאס מותח גבולות, אך צה"ל מסמן את הקו האדום לקראת אירועי מאי, 50 https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/1.6035678צה"ל: שישה פלסטינים ניסו לחדור מהרצועה, שלושה נורו למוות, 51

52Eisenkot:IDFthwartedattemptstoabductsoldiersduringGazariots,https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5248739,00.html 53IsraelsaysGazaprotestsare‘stateofwar’,https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/diplomacy-defense/173867-180503-israel-says-gaza-protests-are-state-of-war54IncendiarykitefromGazacausesmassivefireinBe'eriForest,https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5249207,00.html55PNCelectsPresidentAbbasasPresidentofStateofPalestine,http://english.wafa.ps/page.aspx?id=5MZfwLa97538502699a5MZfwL56https://twitter.com/i/web/status/992418236649140225| השחתה והצתות בכרם שלום, ופגיעה בצינורות הגז והדלקreportedhundredsbutfatalitiesPalestinianNo|/מאמרים/כתבות/עדכון-מבצעי-מהגדר-בעזה/https://www.idf.ilלרצועה injuredinGazaduringcontinuingdemonstrationsalongthefencewithIsrael,https://mailchi.mp/6711fddb09be/media-invitation-to-a-press-conference-544197?e=937451334d

https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/1.6054391שלום, נפגעו מאש חיה; צינורות גז ודלק הוצתו בכרם 70הרשויות בעזה: 57Infirst,IsraeliplanesbombHamaspostinresponsetoGazan‘attackkites’,https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-first-israeli-planes-bomb-hamas-post-in-response-to-gazan-attack-kites/ 583PalestiniansshotdeadbyIDFgunfiretryingtocross,sabotageGazaborderfence,https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5252833,00.html59HamasinMessagetoIsrael:WillingtoNegotiateLong-termTruce,https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-hamas-in-message-to-israel-willing-to-negotiate-long-term-truce-1.606061460PalestinianssetfiretogaspipesatKeremShalomcrossing,https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5257868,00.html

לאחר ההצתה: ליברמן הורה לסגור את מעבר כרם שלום לרצועת עזה, 61https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/1.6076550 62TheIDFDestroysAnotherTerrorTunnel,https://www.idf.il/en/minisites/hamas/the-idf-destroys-another-terror-tunnel/ 63MassGazaBorderClashes:58PalestiniansKilledbyIsraeliGunfire,1,113Wounded,https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/palestinians/.premium-mass-gaza-border-clashes-52-killed-by-israeli-gunfire-2-410-wounded-1.6091548

https://www.10.tv/news/163183, 61-עלה ל "יום הנכבה": התרעת שווא בעוטף עזה; מניין ההרוגים6450ofDeadinGazaProtestsWereHamasActivists,SaysSeniorHamasOfficial,https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/palestinians/50-of-dead-in-gaza-protest-were-hamas-activists-says-hamas-official-1.6094899



22

65AnalysisEgyptandQatarWorkingonLong-termCeasefire,HamasDisarmamentPlansforGaza,https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-egypt-qatar-working-on-long-term-ceasefire-hamas-disarmament-in-gaza-1.609740066EgyptWillKeeptheRafahCrossingWithGazaOpenforEntireMonthofRamadan,https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-egypt-to-keep-rafah-crossing-with-gaza-open-during-ramadan-1.609774667UNHumanRightsBodyCallsforInternationalInquiryinGaza–U.S.andAustraliaObject,https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/un-rights-body-calls-for-international-inquiry-in-gaza-u-s-objects-1.609781468Sufferingchestpains,Abbastakentohospitalforthethirdtimeinaweek,https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-taken-to-hospital-for-3rd-time-in-a-week-said-to-suffer-chest-pains/69PalestinianinGazaSetsHimselfonFireinApparentProtest,https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/palestinians/palestinian-in-gaza-sets-himself-on-fire-in-apparent-protest-1.609861770HamasLeaderInGazaYahyaSinwar:WeAreCoordinatingWithHizbullah,IranOnAnAlmostDailyBasis,https://www.memri.org/reports/hamas-leader-gaza-yahya-sinwar-we-are-coordinating-hizbullah-iran-almost-daily-basis71AsHealthWorsens,IsraeliIntelligenceSeestheBeginningoftheEndofAbbas’Rule,https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israeli-intelligence-sees-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-abbas-rule-1.611021472IDFfiresatterroristscrossingGazaborderfence,https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5267520,00.html73IsraeliMilitaryStrikesHamasTunnel,BoatsinGaza,https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israeli-military-strikes-hamas-underground-naval-targets-in-gaza-1.6112545

צה"ל תקף בדרום רצועת עזה, הפלסטינים מדווחים על שלושה הרוגים, 74https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/1.6117583 75Explosive-LadenGazanDronefoundinSouthernIsrael,https://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Explosive-laden-Gazan-drone-found-in-southern-Israel-558549

צה"ל תקף עמדת תצפית בצפון הרצועה; אדם אחד נהרג ואחר נפצע בינוני, 76https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/1.6130578 77MachinegunfirefromGazastrikessouthernIsraelasbordertensionsleap,https://www.timesofisrael.com/rocket-siren-blares-in-southern-israel-as-tensions-on-gaza-border-leap/78GazaMilitantsBarrageIsraelWithMortarsandRockets,https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/29/world/middleeast/gaza-israel-mortars.html79IsraeliNavyStopsPalestinianFlotillaAttemptingtoSailFromGazatoCyprus,https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/palestinians/.premium-palestinian-flotilla-leaves-gaza-for-cyprus-israel-blocks-boats-1.6131859

וחזרה להתמקד באיומים מצפון, -ישראל נענתה במהירות לבקשת חמאס להפסקת אש 80https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/1.6133638 &

-https://www.haaretz.com/israelfire:Egypt'stheBigWinner,andItWillComeataPriceforIsrael,-AnalysisGazaCease1.6134903-israel-cost-will-it-and-winner-big-the-s-egypt-fire-cease-gaza-news/.premium

קצין בכיר בצה"ל: ישנה הזדמנות להסדר, חמאס מוכן לדבר על הכול כדי להציל את עצמו, 81https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/1.6136795 82Palestinianssayfemalemedickilled,100injuredinGazafenceclashes,https://www.timesofisrael.com/palestinians-say-female-medic-shot-and-killed-100-injured-in-gaza-fence-clashes/ 83PalestinianriotersonGazabordersetfiretoIsraelifields,11Gazanswounded,https://www.timesofisrael.com/two-palestinians-said-injured-as-rioting-breaks-out-on-gaza-border/84U.S.VetoesUN'GrosslyOne-sided'ResolutiononGaza,https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/u-s-vetoes-un-grossly-one-sided-view-resolution-on-gaza-1.613788085IsraelStrikes15HamasTargetsinGazaAfterArmyInterceptsRockets,https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/days-after-cease-fire-two-rockets-fired-from-gaza-at-israel-1.6138217

html-https://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L.5277985,00האדמה בוערת, וסוף לעפיפוני התבערה לא נראה באופק, 86 &NewsofTerrorismandtheIsraeli-PalestinianConflict(May30–June5,2018)

2018/-5-june-30-may-conflict-palestinian-israeli-terrorism-info.org.il/en/news-http://www.terrorism 87Netanyahu:IsraelExaminingWaystoPreventHumanitarianCrisisinGaza,https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/netanyahu-israel-examining-ways-to-stop-humanitarian-crisis-in-gaza-1.6152028 884saidkilledinclashes,includingminor,as10,000protestonGazaborder,https://www.timesofisrael.com/low-level-clashes-break-out-on-gaza-border-as-thousands-protest/

כלי טיס של צה"ל ירה ירי אזהרה לעבר פלסטינים שהכינו בלוני נפץ ברצועה, 89https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/1.6158341

חמאס שולט ברצועת עזה, אבל שאלת ההסלמה נתונה בידי הג'יהאד האיסלאמי, 901.6157855-https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/.premium

91AnalysisRelativeCalmSinceGazaWarIsOver:HamastoContinueProtestsThisSummer,https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-calm-since-2014-gaza-war-is-over-and-hamas-will-continue-protests-1.6158438 92IsraelSaysItDestroyedUnderwaterTunnelMeantforHamasNavalCommandos,https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israel-says-it-destroyed-underwater-tunnel-meant-for-hamas-naval-comma-1.6159875



23

93SECURITYCABINETMEETS,MAKESNODECISIONONHUMANITARIANCRISISINGAZA,https://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Security-cabinet-meets-makes-no-decision-on-humanitarian-crisis-in-Gaza-559655

הסנקציות מהרצועה, מפגינים ברמאללה קראו לעבאס להסיר את 941,500https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/1.6163386 95Report:Netanyahu,WhiteHouseWorkingtoDriveWedgeBetweenPalestiniansandGulfStates,https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/report-pm-white-house-hope-to-divide-palestinians-gulf-states-1.6170503 96KushnertoVisitIsraelNextWeektoDiscussMideastPeaceEfforts,https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/kushner-to-visit-israel-next-week-to-discuss-mideast-peace-efforts-1.617299697ISAChief:250MajorTerrorAttacksThwartedin2018,http://www.israeldefense.co.il/en/node/3458098AheadofMideastVisit:TrumpEnvoysKushner,GreenblattTalkPeacePlanWithUN,https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium-trump-envoys-kushner-greenblatt-talk-peace-plan-with-un-1.617775999ISRAELFOILSHAMASPLANSFORMAJORATTACKSACROSSISRAEL,https://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Security-forces-foil-Hamas-cell-planning-significant-attacks-across-Israel-560186100AirstriketargetscarofGazaballoonandkitelaunch‘leader’,https://www.timesofisrael.com/airstrike-targets-car-of-leader-of-gazan-balloon-and-kite-launching-cell/101TheNavy'ssolutiontotheGazaseaportquestion,https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5289468,00.html102TrumpAdministrationWillAskGulfStatestoInvestUpto$1BillioninGazaEconomy,https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium-trump-admin-wants-gulf-states-to-invest-up-to-1-billion-for-gaza-1.6180191103OvernightFlare-up:IDFStrikesHamasTargets,RocketsFiredFromGaza,https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-idf-attacks-nine-hamas-targets-in-gaza-in-response-to-rocket-fire-1.6180585

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Documents

The Gaza Spring Offensive: Hamas Hybrid Warfare Threat and