The Future of the Teaching Profession

By Professor John Howson

Oxford Teacher Services Ltd2nd June 2015

SATTAG Seminar Portcullis House Westminster

Recruitment for ITT in 2015

The picture for graduate recruitment in Mid-May 2015

Based upon data from UCAS

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

SUPPLY & DEMAND INTO TRAINING

ENTRANTS TSM FIGURE DIFFERENCE

Source: DfE various Statistical Bulletins

Source: Schools Weekly

Source: Schools Weekly

Source: Schools Weekly

ENGLISH

MATHEMATICS

BIOLO

GY

CHEMISTRY

PHYSICS

ALL SCIENCES IT

D&T

TECHNOLOGY

LANGUAGES

GEOGRAPHY

HISTORYART

MUSIC PE RE

BUSINESS

SOCIAL STUDIES

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

ITT % RECRUITMENT TO TARGET 2008/09

Source DfE ITT Census

ENGLISH

MATHEMATICS

BIOLO

GY

CHEMISTRY

PHYSICS

ALL SCIENCES IT

D&T

TECHNOLOGY

LANGUAGES

GEOGRAPHY

HISTORYART

MUSIC PE RE

BUSINESS

SOCIAL STUDIES

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

ITT % RECRUITMENT TO TARGET

2008/09 2011/12Source DfE ITT Census

ENGLISH

MATHEMATICS

BIOLO

GY

CHEMISTRY

PHYSICS

ALL SCIENCES IT

D&T

TECHNOLOGY

LANGUAGES

GEOGRAPHY

HISTORYART

MUSIC PE RE

BUSINESS

SOCIAL STUDIES

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

ITT % RECRUITMENT TO TARGET

2008/09 2011/12 2014/15Source DfE ITT Census

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/160

20

40

60

80

100

120

SECONDARY ITT RECUITMENT AS % OF TARGET

Estimate

Percentage

Recruitment into training for 2015 – Mid-May 2015 (source UCAS ITT data)

Secondary subjects fall into three groups. There are the three subjects:

Languages, History and Physical Education

where the DfE number of trainees required will be met easily, and there will probably be too many trainees for all the vacancies in 2016.

Recruitment into training for 2015 – Mid-May 2015 (source UCAS ITT data)

The second group of subjects are those where offers are better than at this point last year but are still likely to be insufficient to meet the DfE number required as identified by the Teacher Supply Model.

These include subjects such as Physics, Mathematics, English, Design & Technology, Chemistry, Biology and Art.

Recruitment into training for 2015 – Mid-May 2015 (source UCAS ITT data)

Secondary subjects fall into three groups.

Finally, there are five subjects where the DfE number required to enter training almost certainly won’t be reached and the current position over the number of offers made appears worse than at this stage last year.

These subjects are: Religious Education, Music, Geography, IT/Computer Science and Business Studies.

A first look at the Labour Market for Classroom Teachers

January – May 2015Data provided by

TeachVacwww.teachvac.co.uk

North East

North West

Yorkshire & the

HumberEast

MidlandsWest

Midlands London East of England

South West

South East England

Art 10 20 39 32 32 87 57 33 92 402Science 84 218 181 180 230 460 308 189 469 2319English 57 200 169 159 188 313 251 160 353 1850

Mathematics 98 223 173 153 223 377 317 166 392 2122

Languages 34 98 78 76 68 230 158 84 195 1021

Humanities 4 17 22 22 22 37 24 18 36 202IT 20 63 52 57 81 136 107 55 140 711

Design & Technology 35 56 64 59 78 135 107 76 148 758

Business 10 28 36 52 58 107 93 26 150 560RE 26 66 33 36 35 93 63 23 101 476PE 12 24 38 21 30 56 52 33 70 336

Creative Arts 9 24 23 22 24 55 34 12 50 253SEN 2 7 5 3 4 24 4 8 23 80

Music 6 27 25 25 27 80 48 40 73 351Social Sciences 10 19 26 28 21 67 47 24 50 292

Geography 30 79 56 60 60 161 119 57 156 778History 33 69 50 55 53 145 102 46 104 657TOTAL 488 1254 1096 1060 1271 2597 1928 1082 2650 13426

Vacancies from TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk on 26th May 2015

Group ITT Number left % left

Art 534 281 52.72Science 2277 791 34.76English 1689 350 20.75Mathematics 2186 848 38.79Languages 1105 459 41.54IT 519 98 18.88Design & Technology 450 -6 -1.33Business 200 -83 -41.75RE 385 116 30.26PE 1271 987 77.66Music 372 152 40.86Social Sciences 113 -39 -34.51Geography 601 128 21.38History 786 327 41.67

ITT pool numbers as of 26/05/15

ConclusionsUnless ITT recruitment increases between now and September:- Some secondary subjects will experience a third year of under-recruitment against anticipated need in 2015- Recruitment for teaching vacancies in 2016 will be as

challenging or even more so than in 2015- Teach First intake is still only around 1,500 secondary places

compared with c35,000 through other routes

Information currently lacking

-We know little or nothing about the locations of the pool of potential returners to teaching-Will we need to recruit overseas teachers in substantial

numbers?- Will schools choose to supress vacancies by changing the curriculum?

Possible Strategies?

– Pay the fees of all graduate trainees from 2015 entry onwards – this will be especially helpful to career changers that have paid off previous fees and that need to repay the £9,000 as soon as they start teaching

Possible Strategies?

– Pay the fees of all graduate trainees from 2015 entry onwards – this will be especially helpful to career changers that have paid off previous fees and will need to repay the £9,000 as soon as they start teaching– Look to how those training to be teachers that have links to communities can be employed in those communities and more mobile students can be encouraged to move to where they are needed.

Possible Strategies?

– Pay the fees of all graduate trainees from 2015 entry onwards – this will be especially helpful to career changers that have paid off previous fees and will need to repay the £9,000 as soon as they start teaching– Look to how those training to be teachers that have links to communities can be employed in those communities and more mobile students can be encouraged to move to where they are needed.– Make sure teacher preparation places are more closely linked to where the jobs will be. This means reviewing places in London and the Home counties – not enough – and the North West – probably too many in some subjects and sectors.

Possible Strategies?

– Pay the fees of all graduate trainees from 2015 entry onwards – this will be especially helpful to career changers that have paid off previous fees and will need to repay the £9,000 as soon as they start teaching– Look to how those training to be teachers that have links to communities can be employed in those communities and more mobile students can be encouraged to move to where they are needed.– Make sure teacher preparation places are more closely linked to where the jobs will be. This means reviewing places in London and the Home counties – not enough – and the North West – probably too many in some subjects and sectors.– look at trainees that cannot find a job because we trained too many of them and see whether with some minimal re-training they might be useful teachers. This applies especially to PE teachers this year – some might re-train as science teachers or primary PE specialists. Might some art teachers work in design part of D&T.

Possible Strategies?

– Pay the fees of all graduate trainees from 2015 entry onwards – this will be especially helpful to career changers that have paid off previous fees and will need to repay the £9,000 as soon as they start teaching– Look to how those training to be teachers that have links to communities can be employed in those communities and more mobile students can be encouraged to move to where they are needed.– Make sure teacher preparation places are more closely linked to where the jobs will be. This means reviewing places in London and the Home counties – not enough – and the North West – probably too many in some subjects and sectors.– look at trainees that cannot find a job because we trained too many of them and see whether with some minimal re-training they might be useful teachers. This applies especially to PE teachers this year – some might re-train as science teachers or primary PE specialists. Might some art teachers work in design part of D&T.– ramp up the 2015 autumn advertising campaign spend, including an early TV and social media advertising spend that at least matches that of the MoD.

Possible Strategies?

– Pay the fees of all graduate trainees from 2015 entry onwards – this will be especially helpful to career changers that have paid off previous fees and will need to repay the £9,000 as soon as they start teaching– Look to how those training to be teachers that have links to communities can be employed in those communities and more mobile students can be encouraged to move to where they are needed.– Make sure teacher preparation places are more closely linked to where the jobs will be. This means reviewing places in London and the Home counties – not enough – and the North West – probably too many in some subjects and sectors.– look at trainees that cannot find a job because we trained too many of them and see whether with some minimal re-training they might be useful teachers. This applies especially to PE teachers this year – some might re-train as science teachers or primary PE specialists. Might some art teachers work in design part of D&T.– ramp up the 2015 autumn advertising campaign spend, including an early TV and social media advertising spend that at least matches that of the MoD.– split the teacher preparation part of the National College away from the Leadership and professional development elements.– look at the NQT year support now that local authorities don’t have the cash to help. This may be vital in keeping primary teachers in the profession, especially if anything goes wrong at the school where they are working.

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

Biology - recruitment into ITT - The changing pattern

TSM Target Recruitment Shoftfall Total shortfall

Position at mid-May 2015

Thank you and

Questions?