The Future of Nuclear Market – Challenges and Solutions: New …2013.atomexpo.ru/mediafiles/u/files/2013/26_June/Dzhomart... · 2013. 7. 9. · VK-300 SVBR-100 VBER-300 RITM-200

The Future of Nuclear Market – Challenges and Solutions:

New Projects, New Products, New Business-Models

26.06.2013

Dzhomart Aliev

Director General

Rusatom Overseas

www.rosatom.ru

Rosatom’s Global Perspective For Nuclear Energy DevelopmentRosatom’s Global Perspective For Nuclear Energy Development

2

Latin America

Africa & Middle East

Rest of Asia

India

Canada

Western Europe

USA

Central & Eastern Europe

Russia

Korea

China

Japan

12

21 19

2010 2011 2012

Rosatom's

Portfolio, units

The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesn’t lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliated

companies. Rosatom disclaims all responsibility for any and all mistakes, quality and completeness of the information.

Top Five 2013 (Ranks I-V) Ranks VI-X

www.rosatom.ru 33

2020

United States 103 863

France 66 094

China 53 617

Japan 31 404

South Korea 31 028

Russia 22 343

2030

China 124 197


France 67 456

South Korea 38 550

Japan 32 728

Russia 32 059

2013


France 62 919

Japan 44 215

South Korea 22 936

China 21 213

Russia 20 932



Rosatom’s Base Case Installed Nuclear Capacity Forecasts, MWe

Key Global Trends: the Rise of China, Africa & Middle East RegionKey Global Trends: the Rise of China, Africa & Middle East Region

www.rosatom.ru

New Nuclear Projects Form New Market Conditions and New Type of RequirementsNew Nuclear Projects Form New Market Conditions and New Type of Requirements

4The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesn’t lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliated


*Rosatom’s Base Case Forecast Excluding New Nuclear Power Counties** Rusatom Overseas Upper Projections

NEW

Number of countries wishing to include nuclear energy in their energy program is growing, creating competitive environment with new conditions, demand for new

products and business-models

New

co

mers

**E

sta

bli

sh

ed

nu

cle

ar

po

wer

co

un

trie

s*

IndiaRussiaChinaFrance

USASouth Korea

BrazilUKIran

SlovakiaPakistanFinlandTaiwan

2013-2019 2020-2030Commercial Operation of New Projects

CanadaIndia

RussiaChinaFrance

USASouth Korea

MexicoSouth Africa

Czech RepublicRomania

NetherlandsBulgariaHungaryFinlandUkraine

UAEBelarusTurkey

EgyptJordan

LithuaniaNigeria

PhilippinesThailand

VenezuelaVietnam

Saudi ArabiaBangladesh

PolandIndonesiaMalaysiaAustralia

ChileBelarus

KazakhstanTurkey

Conditions

Products

Business-

models

- Established NSSS Vendors - NSSS Vendors and NSSS Customers - NSSS customers

www.rosatom.ru 5

New Conditions Suggest Mixed SolutionsNew Conditions Suggest Mixed Solutions

Country Readiness for Nuclear Power

International Suppliers

Local Suppliers

NSSS Vendor

Customer

International Suppliers

Competitors/Partners

Local Suppliers

Vendor

Customer

Vendor

Customer

Newcomers Established nuclear

power countries

Developed nuclear markets

80%

Vendor’s Target Share

50%


30%


Conventional Model NSSS-based Model Multi-contract Model

In order to meet the demand from all types of customers Supplier has to be ready to propose offers corresponding to each of model in demand



www.rosatom.ru 7

Global Supply Chain is a Key Element of New Business ModelsGlobal Supply Chain is a Key Element of New Business Models

The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesn’t lead to any obligations to Rosatom and

its affiliated companies. Rosatom disclaims all responsibility for any and all mistakes, quality and completeness of the information.

Research Centers with diverse levels of autonomy and operation responsibility

Dealers or local independentdistributors

Provision of services through the local players

� Around 15,000 jobs in peak (9,000 in average)

� Around $ 15 bn.revenue of local companies

� Around $ 3,5 bn. tax income of local

� government

Effects (direct)*

Effects (indirect)*

� “1x10”: 1 job in operating NPP creates 10 jobs in infrastructure

� Access to vendor’s global pipeline (80 units by 2030)

* For a typical 4-unit NPP

www.rosatom.ru 7Source: Rusatom Overseas estimates, Rosatom, UxC



Development of S&MR technologies will lead to diversification of supply and the emergence of a range of vendor offers

New Products: Entering New Competitive LandscapeNew Products: Entering New Competitive Landscape

South Africa

Medium capacity(300 - 700 MW)

Small capacity(10 - 300 МW)

Large capacity(>700 MW)

Competitors’ Solutions

Rosatom Solutions

Argentina

Brazil

VVER-

1200

VVER-

1200VVER-

1000

VVER-

1000

VVER-TOIVVER-TOI

BN-800BN-800

BN-1200BN-1200

ACR-1000ACR-1000

EPR-1600 SWR-1000

ESBWRESBWR

APR-1400APR-1400

CPR-1000CPR-1000 ACPR-1000ACPR-1000

Atmea1Atmea1

АР-1000АР-1000

ABWRABWR

BRESTBREST

VVER-300VVER-300

IMRIMR

PEACERPEACER

TWRTWR

NP-300

PFBR-500PFBR-500

CNP-300CNP-300

IRISIRIS

EC-6EC-6

NIKA-70NIKA-70

VK-300VK-300

SVBR-100SVBR-100

VBER-300VBER-300

RITM-200RITM-200

KLT-40SKLT-40S

RUTA-70RUTA-70

ENHSENHSHPMHPM

PRISM PRISM

ARC-100ARC-100

SSTARSSTAR

STAR-LMSTAR-LM

EM2EM2

SmAHTRSmAHTR

GEMSTARGEMSTAR

GT-MHRGT-MHR

RADIXRADIX

NuScaleNuScale

mPowermPower

W. SMRW. SMR

Hl-SMURHl-SMUR

TPSTPS

VKT-12VKT-12

FlexblueFBNRFBNR

ACP100ACP100

ALLEGRO ANTARES

MRXMRX

LSPRLSPR

Fuji MSRFuji MSR

PBMRSMARTSMART

CAREMCAREM

NHR-200NHR-200

AHWR300AHWR300

HTR-PMHTR-PM

PHWRPHWR

CEFRCEFR

GTHTRGTHTR

Canada

USA

USA

Japan

France

China

India

Republic of Korea

www.rosatom.ru

� Buy� Build

� Finance� Operate

� Control Non-proliferation

Emergence of Global Long-Term Demand for Small and Medium ReactorsEmergence of Global Long-Term Demand for Small and Medium Reactors

8The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesn’t lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliated


* Rusatom Overseas estimates

** Rosatom Forecasts

0 0

1,6

27,7

0,21,1

2,6

46,5

2013 2015 2020 2030

SMR Installed capacity & Market forecast**

Small and Medium Reactors Installed Capacity, Gwe

Market Forecast, ∑196 bln1

Argentina

Armenia

Kazakhstan

Indonesia

Thailand

Malaysia

Slovakia

China

India

Brazil

UruguayChile

Peru

Saudi Arabia

Nigeria

Ghana

Namibia

South Africa

Morocco

Tunisia

JordanUAE

Vietnam

Australia

Russia

JapanUSAS.Korea

- Base case* - Upper Case*

France

Completely new market with its own rules

Great deal of new designs

Great potential for newcomers

Great potential for new types of customer

In order to keep up with the growing pace of the market new regulatory environment is required to accelerate the process of prospective technologies’ licensing

www.rosatom.ru

New Competitive Landscape forms Growing Demand for New Contract ModelsNew Competitive Landscape forms Growing Demand for New Contract Models

9* Based on Rusatom Overseas Upper Case Estimates



BOO, BOT models have already proved their sustainability in other industries

Currently, newcomers are looking for more convenient contract models in order to secure more international involvement

Under BOO, BOT supplier has an opportunity to bring the following advantages to a new market:

Operational experienceSustainable NPP maintenanceSpent fuel take-back optionDecommissioning

Key advantage of BOO, BOT model: Financial risks are shared by a supplier and a customer

Operational risks are mitigated more effectively

Potential Number of NPP Units in Commercial Operation under BOO, BOT

Contract Models*

Rosatom Case• Financing scope and parameters may be widely granted by the Russian vendor depending on different

factors, i.e. country creditworthiness, Rosatom’s equity share, volume of Russian equipment supply, presence of co-operation on other projects, etc.

• Rosatom is the first to become NPP operator in a foreign country; • Thus, a unique proposition with very low financing costs could be achieved

www.rosatom.ru

Mining

Gas centrifuges

manufacturing

Fuel fabrication

Spent nuclear

fuel treatmentPower

Generation

Conversion

and enrichment

NPPs engineering

& construction

Power equipment

and services

Research and

development

Rosatom is Able to Meet any New Customer Demand by Adjusting to the New Market RequirementsRosatom is Able to Meet any New Customer Demand by Adjusting to the New Market Requirements

10

Product Line Bild – Own – Operate Model

Localization

Rosatom has a long-lasting experience in equipmentproduction and services localization and sourcing

20% 39%

Up to

70%

LOVIISA Finland

1970-1

980

2002-2

011

New proposals for EU countries are based on AES-2006 design

2011

KUDANKULAMIndia

Local supplier’s share in equipment and services supply

Rosatom offers complete solution from uraniumsupplies to NPP construction operation anddecommissioning

Medium capacity(300 - 700 MW)

Small capacity(10 - 300 МW)

Large capacity(>700 MW)

VVER-1200VVER-1200

VVER-1000VVER-1000

VVER-TOIVVER-TOI

BN-800BN-800

BN-1200BN-1200

BRESTBREST

VVER-300VVER-300

NIKA-70NIKA-70

SVBR-100SVBR-100

VBER-300VBER-300

RITM-200RITM-200

KLT-40SKLT-40S

RUTA-70RUTA-70

VK-300VK-300

Rosatom offers a full range of reactor capacities - from LargeCapacity VVERs to Small Capacity SVBRs.

Akkuyu NPP – the first BOO project overseasAkkuyu NPP – the first BOO project overseas

Integrated Solution

Reactor type: VVER-1200

Total capacity: 4 800 MWt

Construction years: 2011-2021

Republic of Turkey - Akkuyu NPP

www.rosatom.ru

Thank You for Attention!

Dzhomart AlievDirector GeneralRusatom Overseas

E-mail: [email protected]

Phone: +7 495 730 08 73

25

Documents

The Future of Nuclear Market – Challenges and Solutions: New …2013.atomexpo.ru/mediafiles/u/files/2013/26_June/Dzhomart... · 2013. 7. 9. · VK-300 SVBR-100 VBER-300 RITM-200