The Future of GIS

The Future & Applications of GIS

…if I really knew, would I still be here?

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Changing Emphases:

From Data to Analysis

75%Data Conversion:

10-15%Attribute Tagging

Spatial 5% Analysis

Data Conversion

Spatial Analysis

Attribute Tagging

Past Present/Future3

Changing EmphasesFrom Description to Simulation & Modeling

Past

Picture worth athousand words:

maps & diagrams ofhow is, or how was

Web portals serve static data sets

Future

Visual simulation &virtual reality:

real time display of how is, and how might be-forest fire-freeway traffic flow

Web portals serve continuous sensor-derived data

Iconic models: scaled down representations of the real thing

Symbolic models: based on logical relationships in mathematical or statistical form4

Changing Emphasesfrom 2-D description to 4-D interactionPast• 2-D flat map displays

– User as observerFuture• Effective 3-D visualization

– Via the merger of CAD and GIS?– What is the data model?

• 4-D incorporation of time: “The time has come for time.”– Via agent-based modeling / cellular automata? Or how?

• Cells (e.g. land parcels or people) interacting over time according to established rules

• 5, 6 and 7-D incorporation of touch (pressure, texture, temperature), sound and smell into modeling/simulation environment

• User as participant – researchers, professionals, the public interact with the model– the public as the planner (participatory GIS)

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Changing Emphases:Out of this world

Past– GIS applied to Planet Earth

Future– GIS as a methodology for the analysis of spheres

• Other planets—Mars, Jupiter, and Uranus

• The human brain– One earth but many brains– & vis-a-versa: does the brain use “maps” for

organization?

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Forecast: Wearable GIS

We will wear our computers, not sit in front of them

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Wearable GIS

http://www.itmedia.co.jp/broadband/0309/18 9

Wearable GIS

http://www.itmedia.co.jp/broadband/0309/18 10

UCSB Battuta project

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Forecast : No more data problems

Digital earth will exist It will be achieved by VGI, not

top-downThere will be many and specialized

geobrowsersOpen standards rule

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Digital Earth

Visionary concept: Holistic perspective Popularized by former US VP Al Gore Virtual and 3-D representation of the Earth Spatially referenced Connected with digital knowledge archives Vast amounts of scientific, natural, and cultural

information “to describe and understand the Earth, its systems,

and human activities. “

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Computing issues in 2025

Network monitors itself, who sees? Spyware and security vs Personal privacy Who pays for services? Who are the digit police? Competing solutions and liability The limits of accuracy Tractability envelope: New methods Simulation is everywhere, for everything

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Conclusion Our only model for the future is the past think back as many years as you are looking

forward change has been both revolutionary.. and glacial

don’t forget that the pace of change is accelerating probably just gearing-up for the information age,

not reaching its climax but remember,we have to get there from here

can you envision a path? if we knew the future, we wouldn’t be here!

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Thank You

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