The Future of Fuels for Transportation

UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTAINSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be

reproduced in any form without prior authorization.

The Future of Fuels for TransportationPresented at the World Future Society's Annual Conference

World Future 2007: Fostering Hope and Vision for the 21st Century

July 30, 2007, Minneapolis, MN

Massoud Amin, CDTL Director/Chair & Professor ECE, Univ. of MinnesotaDavid Keenan, Vice President, Minnesota Futurists

Rolf Nordstrom, Executive Director, Great Plains Institute

UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTAINSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization.

Background

• Price of fuel for cars and light trucks is increasing– Increasing demand from developing populations– Declining discoveries of crude oil– Conflicts in oil producing regions

• US consumer demand exceeds US supply – Reliance on exports– Energy security concern

• Burning gasoline for transportation creates environmental problems, smog, CO2, etc.



Background

• Global light vehicle ( cars and light trucks) production - 55 to 60 million/yr• Estimated 500 million light vehicles in use

– 78% gasoline– 22% diesel

• Growth of Ownership



Context:

• In the U.S., we have:- 2% of the World’s oil reserve;- 8% of World oil production;- 5% of the World population;

- we consume 25% of World’s production, and - more than 2/3 of our consumption is

imported.

• Emerging economies increased demand are changing the “balance,” e.g. China,

- China has bought excess capacity of Canada, - Almost bought Unocal; major commitments from Mideast. - In 2005 we launched one new submarine,

- China launched 14 (albeit lower quality)…



Context: Cities with 10 million people

• By 2020, more than 30 mega-cities in the now less-developed world. By 2050, nearly 60 such cities.

• Increased population creates need for more resources. World's electricity supply will need to triple by 2050 to keep up with demand, necessitating nearly 10,000 GW of new generating capacity.









U.S. Transportation Demands More Oil

Source: Transportation Energy Data Book Edition 20, DOE/ORNL-6959, October 2000, and EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2001, DOE/EIA-0383(2001), December 2000.

Highway Carbon Emissions(million metric tons)

1990 2000 2010 2020325 386 474 541

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

per

Day

Domestic Oil Production

Pass

enge

r Veh

icle

sC

omm

erci

al

Vehi

cles

Automobiles

Light Trucks

Heavy Trucks

Actual Projected



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Trill

ion

Cub

ic F

eet

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Billi

on B

arre

ls

NG Historic ProductionProjected U.S. NG ProductionProjected World Oil Production

Estimates of World Conventional Oil Production & U.S. Natural Gas

Production

Source: Department of Energy

Supply Considerations



EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2006

0

20

40

60

80

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

HistoryAEO2005AEO2006

Figure 1. World Oil Price*, 1980-2030(2004 dollars per barrel)

*World oil price is the weighted average price of imported low sulfur light crude oil.



Issues facing US consumers• What fuel price would influence you

to choose a new vehicle type?• Europe currently pays about $6/gal

due to taxes• US is considering increasing gas tax• What vehicles will be available?• What fueling station infrastructure will

be convenient?



Answering Consumer ChallengesAn Example: Galvin Electricity Initiative• Each day, roughly 500,000 Americans spend at least two hours

without electricity (cost to our economy $150B/year). – The future looks even worse. Without substantial innovation

and investment, rolling blackouts and soaring power bills will become a persistent fact of life in this country.

• Mission: The Galvin Electricity Initiative is leading a campaign to create a perfect power system. A perfect power system cannot fail the consumer. It is environmentally sound and fuel-efficient. It is robust and resilient; able to withstand natural and weather-related disasters and mitigate the potential damage caused by terrorist attack. The perfect power system provides affordable electricity to all consumers and allows consumers to control their own energy use to the extent they choose.

• History: The Galvin Electricity Initiative was officially launched in 2005, but its genesis dates back to the massive East Coast blackout of August 2003, which left nearly 50 million people without power and inspired former Motorola chief to take action.

Source: http://www.galvinpower.org/



S&T Assessment, Scan and Map (April 2005-Feb 2006; Galvin Electricity Initiative, Task 3, Phase 1)

Objectives: • Identify the most significant Science &

Technology innovations which would meet energy service needs over the next 10 or 20 years.

• Determine Science & Technologies areas and concepts which address customer aspirations and hopes:– Technologies that encourage job creation and address

the needs of the society;– An energy system so robust and resilient that it will not

fail; – A totally reliable, secure communication system that will

not fail.

Source: Galvin Electricity Initiative http://www.galvinpower.org/



Societal/Human Needs→ Technology → System

What will be its What will be its needs for needs for systems systems

consuming consuming energy energy

(functionally)?(functionally)?

What existing What existing and emerging and emerging

technologies can technologies can meet those meet those

needs?needs?

How will society How will society evolve?evolve?

What power What power system system

implications do implications do those solutions those solutions

imply?imply?

Are there entirely new Are there entirely new pivotal technologies pivotal technologies

which could be potentially which could be potentially available?available?

Are there applications of pivotal Are there applications of pivotal science and technology outside science and technology outside

energy that may apply?energy that may apply?

Killer Ap?Killer Ap?Will those Will those influence influence society?society?



How do we figure out what may work?

Consumer Needs

Technology Potential

Technology Scan

• Identify societal attributes

• How may society’s technology needs evolve (scenario)?

• What will be the technology needs of

those societies?• Identify dominant

needs

• Determine the potential of known

(existing and emerging)

technologies• Determine where

clustersof applications

exist

• Scan the technology horizon broadly for innovation

possibilities

Nodes ofOpportunity



Examples of Technology strengths of the industry today

Information Science

Physical Science

leading

strong

capable

14

Industry Application

Status

Industry’s TechnologyPowerZone™™

Examples of Technology strengths of the industry today include:1.Power Electronics2.Adv. Electric motors3.Wind generation4.Nuclear Power5.Solar power6.Systems integration7.Real-time systems control8.Personal storage devices9.Power conditioning10.Efficient illumination11.Emission control12.Turbine generation13.Adv. Materials technology14.Security technology

3

2

1

6

4

7

5

9

812

10

13

11

Bio- and Life Sciences



Expanding the Power Zone

Physical Biological

InfoA. Distributed control

B. Electronic power commerceC. Distributed

generation/storageD. Integrated common

infrastructureE. Integrated/Embedded PV

AB

C

D

E

F Wireless backupG Granular Semi-autonomous

ArchitectureH Fractal Grid Lego Model

I Lego ModelJ Plug and play appliancesF

G

J

H

I

Technology Map for the Granular Semi-Autonomous Architecture



Expanding and Transforming the Power Zone

Information Science

Physical Science

Bio./LifeScience

17

2 5

63

8

4

Bench-marking

Existing Power Zone

ExtendedPower Zone

Technology Map for Bio-fuel Systems,

Distributed Gen and Storage systems integrated with

Advanced Information Systems for Network

Management



R& D Strategies and Examples of Technology areas

Develop into

Products

Identify Real Applications to

Pull Technology

High Potential -- Elaborate, Expand, Drive Investment

Alliances, Government,

University

Not strategic - evaluate as

separate opportunity

Sustain and Grow-Industry and other

resources



Future Consumer Needs

Transportation

Relieve Congestion

Reduce Energy Use

Revitalize Cities

Serve Diverse

Communities

Source: Galvin Electricity Initiative



Big 4 issues automakers face in meeting those needs

1. Energy diversity2. Climate change3. Population and

Congestion4. Air quality



Transportation Fuel Options that Meet These Challenges are Limited

1. Electricity (plugging into the grid): Requires “greening the grid” and solving storage/battery issues

2. Liquids from coal: Without CCS*, this would be worse than gasoline from a climate standpoint

3. Biofuels: UCS study on biofuels suggested that they could perhaps meet 30 to 50% of U.S. transportation fuel needs. We’ll still need that other 50%!

4. Hydrogen: Made from renewable and low-carbon sources

* CCS: Carbon Capture and Sequestration

Co-Evolution of Vehicles & Fuels

Conventional ICE vehicles

“ICE” = Internal Combustion Engine

Flex-fuel ICE vehicles (E-

85 & gasoline)

Hybrid-ICE vehicles

Cleaner diesel ICE vehicles

Plug-in hybrid ICE flex-fuel vehicles Battery can be recharged by the electric grid, extending the vehicle’s electric-only range.

Hybrid Fuel Cell vehicles

Hybrid ICE & Fuel Cell Vehicles AND/OR

Plug-in Hybrid ICE & Fuel Cell

vehicles

www.gpisd.net

GasolineDiesel

Gasoline & Diesel (176,000 gas stations)

Corn Ethanol (E85) (100s of U.S. stations)

Soy Biodiesel (100s of U.S. stations)Natural Gas

(1,600 stations in U.S.)

Hydrogen (~ 100 stations worldwide)

Gasoline & Diesel Hydrogen

Grid ElectricityBiofuels from cellulose

& other renewable sources

Fuels from coal w/CO2 capture &

sequestration

Low- no-CO2 Hydrogen

Low- no-CO2 Grid Electricity

Biofuels from cellulose & other

renewable sourcesFuels from coal w/CO2 capture &

sequestration

VEHICLES evolving toward hybrids = less oil, air pollution and greenhouse gases

We are here.

(97% reliant on OIL)

Little/no OIL in transportation by

2050

FUELS evolving toward domestic, low- no-CO2 options

1901

1993-1997-2009

20102020 & beyond

Date of 1st mass vehicle introduction

1) Few alternatives to gasoline

2) Must move along evolutionary path ASAP



One Transition Strategy: GEM Flexibly Fuel Vehicles (FFV) One Tank To Hold Them All

G: Gasoline

E: Ethanol

M: Methanol

With an FFV, you choose each day which to buyAt $100-200/car, a more open competition, level playing field, better unleash the power of the free market40% of new cars in Brazil GE flexible already



Vehicle & Fuel Evolution Already Underway

Both GM and Toyota pursuing:

– Hybrid ICEs– Plug-in ICEs– Plug-in hydrogen fuel

cell electrics.Honda FCX

Ford Edge

Chevy Volt



Chevy Volt as example of vehicle trends

• Fuel cell is simply used as a range-extender (not as a replacement for the ICE).

• The fuel cell simply keeps the battery charged

• Easier to put electric infrastructure in place than H2 infrastructure.



Do any hydrogen vehicles exist today?

• Every major automaker has prototypes

• 400-500 vehicles on the road

• 38 Hybrid Priuses have been converted to run on hydrogen, most operating in 5 cities in LA basin

• At least 10 types of H2 ICE vehicles deployed or being developed



When might you buy a fuel cell vehicle?

• Automakers racing to be first; GM says by 2011

• Both Honda and BMW have announced plans to go to production BEFORE 2010

• Others think longer or never

• First vehicles are fleets

GM’s Sequel, 300 mile range

GM putting 100 of these on the road in 2007



GM Targets for Deployment

2007 to 2010: 100 vehicles (10 stations) 2011 to 2013: 1000 vehicles (100 stations)2014 to 2016: 10,000 vehicles (250 stations)

Commercial deployment in mass market

Chevy “Volt” plug-in hybrid



1st fuel cell family has completed first year

Jon and Sandy Spallino and daughters, Redondo Beach, California

Honda FCX4



Are there any hydrogen stations today?

• >100 stations worldwide • California has 23 stations; 15

more underway; 100 planned by 2010

• 1st public station in Washington DC

• 170 new stations planned (VT, OH, CA, DC, FL, NV, NY, etc.)

• CA, FL, NY, Canada, Japan and Norway have “H2 highway” projects

H2 Highway in BC



Transitional Phases

I. Technology Development Phase

II. In itial Market Penetration Phase

III. Infrastructure Investm ent Phase

IV. Fully Developed Market and Infrastructure Phase

Strong Governm ent R&D Role

Strong Industry Comm ercialization Role

2 000

2020

2010

2030

2040

PhaseI

PhaseII

PhaseIII

PhaseIV

RD & D I

Transition to th e M arketplace

Com m ercialization D ecision

II

E xpansio n of M arkets and In frastructure III

Realizatio n of the Hydrog en Eco nom y IV

U.S. Goal: Fuel cell vehicles in the showroom and hydrogen at filling stations by 2020

How Soon?



Market Transformation of Electric Drive Vehicles

Source: EPRI



1) Electricity



Tomorrow’s Grid

• Smart– with sensors

• Flexible and Resilient– an intelligent network with real-

time monitoring and control• Self Healing

– capable of predicting or immediately containing outages with adaptive islanding and fast isolation or sectionalizing

• Established Standards– enabling “plug and play”

distributed resources and digital appliances and devices



Role of Vehicles and Fuel Cells in the ‘Smart Grid’

• Distributed Energy Resources (DER)– Power quality and reliability– Backup– Load leveling – when loads and prices are high

• DER potentially 25% U.S. electricity in 2020• ‘Plug and Play’ capability

– Grid design for multiple power flows– Standards– Equipment ‘signatures’ and requirements

• ‘Smart Vehicles’ from interconnected power systems and communications



Value Proposition• Energy security as electricity provides fuel substitute for petroleum

• Efficiency improvements result in significant fuel mileage increases and emissions reduction

• Faster fuel cell market penetration due to lower cost of fuel cell when linked to an energy storage system

• Electric drive systems in the full range of auto, truck, and non-road product offerings

• A potential future as mobile distributed resources link to electricity grid

• A cleaner environment as Electric Drive market share grows

• Load leveling

Source: EPRI



Full Fuel Cycle Efficiency Comparison

0.31–0.50

0.29–0.472116 Btu/mile

1631 – 2185 miles

Per Barrel

Conventional

1231 milesPer Barrel

4115 Btu/mile0.84

Plug-in Hybrid

1.0



Hybrid Vehicle Efficiency

15-20% 90-95%95%

85-95%85-90%

Gas tank Engine Transmission Driveline

MotorBattery

Gasoline: 13-18% Efficient

Electric: 62-77% Efficient



1,091

4,535

788

3,277

1,109

456

1,897

2,187

174

722

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

WTW

Ene

rgy

Use

(Btu

/mi)

Conventional Vehicle Power Assist HEV Plug-in HEV 20 Plug-in HEV 60

Vehicle Configuration

Tank-to-Wheels Energy Petroleum

Well-to-Tank Energy Petroleum

Well-to-Wheels Electricity -- U.S.Average Generation Mix

Well-to-Wheels Energy Use— Midsize Sedan



Petroleum Reduction

Compact Sedan

Midsize Sedan

Midsize SUV

Fullsize SUV

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900A

nnua

l Gas

olin

e C

onsu

mpt

ion

(gal

lons

)Conventional Vehicle"No-Plug" HybridPlug-in HEV, 20 mile EV rangePlug-in HEV, 60 mile EV range

Up to 85% reduction in gasoline use and trips to gas station (HEV60).



“Electrifying America’s Transportation:A Value Proposition for Electric Drive Vehicles”

Net Economic Benefits

Billion $/year (2002 $)

Oil Use - 4 M bbl/dayGDP Impact + $ 38 B/yearEnvironmental + $ 9 B/yearLabor + 440,000 Jobs/yr

• Assumes by 2025

- Half of all cars are Hybrids

- Half of those are plug-in Hybrids

• Based on DOE – EIA projections for energy use

A study by Professor James A. Weinbrake, James Madison University, 2002

Sponsored by EPRI’s Technology Roadmap Project



Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) Comparison

Plug-in HEVs:– reduce emissions, energy use, CO2, and

petroleum consumption more than power assist HEVs

– yield greater benefits as range increases

• All HEVs can be expected to cost more than CVs

• Even at significantly higher capital costs, plug-in HEVs can succeed in the market



2) Bioenergy

Biomass as transport fuel and/or grid power



Bioenergy Today

Commercial & Residential

16.8%

Industrial 67.5%

Transportation4%

Electric Utilities11.6%

Biomass2.9%

Other Renewable

3.8%

Petroleum products40%Other

0%

Coal22%

Nuclear8%

Natural Gas23%



USESFuels: Ethanol Renewable Diesel HydrogenPower: Electricity HeatChemicals Plastics Solvents Chemical Intermediates Phenolics Adhesives Furfural Fatty acids Acetic Acid Carbon black Paints Dyes, Pigments, and Inks Detergents Etc.

Food and Feed

Bio-gas

Synthesis Gas

Sugars and Lignin

Bio-Oil

Carbon-RichChains

Plant Products

Hydrolysis

Acids, enzymesGasification

High heat, low oxygen

Digestion

Bacteria

Pyrolysis

Catalysis, heat, pressure

Extraction

Mechanical, chemicalSeparation

Mechanical, chemical

Feedstock production,collection, handling & preparation

Biorefinery: Feedstock to any Product



Biomass Resources: Many regional options

Evolution from:• Corn ethanol• Biodiesel

Toward:• Cellulosic

ethanol:- Ag. residues,

wood waste, native grass.



Ethanol and E85• Ethanol is a biofuel alternative to gasoline

– Contains 35% oxygen, burns cleaner than gasoline– Highly biodegradable, less problems from leaks

• E10 is 10% ethanol and 90% unleaded gasoline– Used in 46% of US, especially in winter to cut smog– Used to replace MTBE as octane booster

• E85 is 85% ethanol and 15% unleaded gasoline– Pricing attractive vs. unleaded gas

• Land and energy requirements limit corn ethanol to a transition fuel



Other Options for Ethanol Production• 2004 global production 10 billion gallons• 38% produced in Brazil using 4.5% of crop land• Mass produced by fermentation of starch or sugar• Crop yields gallons/acre

– Corn 370– Sugar Cane 662– Sugar Beet 714– Poplar hybrid 1000 (UM Duluth)– Switchgrass 1150– Miscanthus 1500

• Can be produced from algae – (UM Twin Cities)



Why Evolve to Cellulosic Ethanol?



Biodiesel• Biodiesel is a diesel equivalent fuel derived from a

biological source such as vegetable oil• Biodegradable, non-toxic, produces 60% less CO2

emissions than petroleum based diesel• Soybean and rapeseed oil are used for 90% of fuel • Waste vegetable oil works • Global production of vegetable oil and animal fat are

not yet sufficient to replace fossil fuel use.• Corn 18 gal/acre• Soybean 48 gal/acre• Rapeseed 127 gal/acre



How many miles/acre can we achieve?

Cellulosic ethanol has “good” potential for transportation fuel supply over the next 20-30 years



BioEnergy—S&T Challenges• Feedstock production and collection

– Plant growth and response to stress (and on marginal lands); – Higher productivity at lower input (water, fertilizer, etc.)– Production of certain components and/or new components – Functional genomics; biochemistry; physiology; cellular control mechanisms;

respiration; photosynthesis, metabolism, nutrient use, disease response• Biochemical pathways

– Biocatalysis: enzyme function and regulation; enzyme engineering; catalyst reaction rates and specificity

• Thermochemical pathways– Product-selective thermal cracking of biomass; CFD modeling

• Bioproducts– New and novel monomers and polymers; – Biomass composites; adhesion/surface science

• Combustion– NOx chemistry; CFD modeling



3) Wind and Solar

for electricity and hydrogen production



Wind and Solar Resources Potential is large, particularly in the Western U.S.



Solar EnergySolar Energy

• Price of electricity from grid-connected PV systems are ~20¢/kWh. (Down from ~$2.00/kWh in 1980)

• Nine parabolic trough plants with a total rated capacity of 354 MW have operated since 1985, with demonstrated system costs of 12 to 14¢/kWh.



-100

100

300

500

700

900

1100

130019

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

040

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

ROWEuropeJapanU.S.PV Cost

PV C

ost,

Cen

ts/k

Wh

MW

s Shipped

PV Costs and ShipmentsSource for market data: Paul Maycock, PV News, Volume 24, No. 2 February 2005



Example: Solar

This solar powered water electrolysis hydrogenproduction and fueling station at Honda R&D Americas, Inc., Los Angeles Center in Torrance, California, is an example of PV-based hydrogen production for vehicle use(courtesy of Honda R&D Co., Ltd.).



Solar Energy—S&T Challenges• Photovoltaics:

– Improve understanding of materials/growth/characterization and devices, esp. of CIGS, CdTe and Multi-junction thin films—interface chemistry, physics, defects, etc.

– Innovative encapsulants – Transparent conducting oxides– Improved Computational methods– Quantum Dot cells, intermediate-band cells

• Concentrating Solar Power: – Stable, high temperature heat transfer and thermal storage materials, with low vapor pressure, low

freezing points– Stable, high temperature, high performance selective surfaces– High performance reflectors

• Fuels:– High-temperature thermochemical cycles for CSP; Improved catalysts– PhotoElectrochemical redox couples with better band-edge matching– Electrolysis– PhotoBiological

• Low Temperature Solar Thermal: – New polymers that can withstand UV, hi/lo temperatures, and high pressures.

• Cross-cutting Areas:– Power electronics—wide-band gap materials; Reliable capacitors– Energy Storage



UNIDO-ICHETUNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION

INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR HYDROGEN ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES

www.unido-ichet.org/ichet.org/ichet.php



Thermal Energy Contents of Various Fuels

Bottom-Line: On a per pound basis, hydrogen contains about 3 times more energy than any fossil fuel; however, with its low mass density, it has high storage costs based on today’s technology.



Methods to Generate Hydrogen• Electrolysis• Cracking natural gas– short-term solution• Nuclear• Microbes• Reforming biomass/waste• Wind – renewable• Solar – renewable



Challenges for Hydrogen• Storage

– Containers outweigh content• DOE goal is hydrogen 6% by weight

(demo of 8% underway)• Distribution

– Need for both retrofit of existing (~ 38-50%) gas pipelines and construction of new ones

– Truck transport is limited to a few hundred miles.



Long-Term Clean Alternatives to Carrying H2 in Your Car Tank

• Hydrogen Carriers – proven tested fuels that easily release hydrogen for use on-board a car– Methanol, our best hope (next slide)– Ammonia & other carbon-free fuels (but chicken&egg

problem again)

• Electric Cars – Cleanest, most efficient, but needs R&D; can’t yet beat C; new batteries in lab exciting, but not yet… PLUG-IN HYBRIDS COULD GET US THERE.

• Thermal Batteries (Long-term option)



04/22/23 66

…The Future is Bright…



Change



Rule of three



Innovation and Progress...

“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.”

George Bernard Shaw (1856 - 1950)



Transportation Policy



Shifting Opinions: Raise Gas Tax

0

2

4

6

8S&T

Public Acceptance

Environmental Policy

Economics

TodayFuture

Future = 2020

• Federal gas tax =18.4cents/gal.

• State gas taxes– Low is Alaska at 8

cents/gal.– MN, Wash DC are

20 cents/gal.– High is Wisconsin

at 32.1 cents/gal.



Shifting Opinions: Hybrid Vehicles

0

2

4

6

8S&T

Public Acceptance

Environmental Policy

Economics TodayFuture

Future = 2020



Aggregate Stakeholder Perceptions

-5-4-3-2-1012345

-5 0 5

Reliable

Cle

an

-5-4-3-2-1012345

-5 0 5

Private Good

Publ

ic G

ood

-5-4-3-2-1012345

-5 0 5

Gov. Subsidies

Free

Mar

ket

-5-4-3-2-1012345

-5 0 5

Costs

Ben

efits

-5-4-3-2-1012345

-5 0 5

Good Policy

Goo

d Po

litic

s

-5-4-3-2-1012345

-5 0 5

Do

Acc

ompl

ish



Hybrid Vehicles

• Best State Incentives:– Utah / Colorado: Up to $4,713 in tax credits

• Allow Single-Person Hybrid to use HOV lanes– Vs Minnesota: No Incentives

• Best Use for Mass Transit– N.Y. Upgrading Bus fleet to Hybrid Diesel-Electric

• Use 1/3 less fuel than conventional busses• Reduced emissions: : 90 percent less particulate matter, 40

percent fewer oxides of nitrogen, and 30 percent fewer greenhouse gases.

• Run quieter, reducing noise pollution– vs. Minnesota: No Plans for Hybrid Mass Transit and 2004 Transportation Plan focuses on Buses as the centerpiece of Metro Region Mass transit for the next 25 years (through 2030).



Key Points

• Energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DR) can be cost-effective alternatives to adding new capacity

• Programmatic approaches to EE and DR have been successful, but have only “scratched-the-surface” of what’s possible

• Huge opportunity to utilize technology, innovation, and markets to drive EE, DR, and overall electricity utilization



My Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle

• Convenient Re-charging… Anytime and Anywhere– Vehicle meter “handshakes” with network-connected “socket” to

identify vehicle and billing information– Re-charges with kWh measured by vehicle meter– Electronic billing transaction debits vehicle owner’s account and

credits “socket” owner’s account

• Distributed Energy Storage– Sell stored battery energy to the grid– Utilize stored battery energy for short-term back-up power

• Distributed Generation– Utilize internal combustion engine for longer-term backup power



Electric Vehicle Inductive Charger



My Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle• Convenient Re-charging… Anytime and Anywhere

– Vehicle meter “handshakes” with network-connected “socket” to identify vehicle and billing information

– Re-charges with kWh measured by vehicle meter– Electronic billing transaction debits vehicle owner’s account and credits

“socket” owner’s account

• Distributed Energy Storage– Sell stored battery energy to the grid– Utilize stored battery energy for short-term back-up power

• Distributed Generation– Utilize internal combustion engine for longer-term backup power

Consumers will demand these conveniences…will the Electricity Efficiency Infrastructure be ready?





Challenge & Opportunity Three Primary Motivations• Energy Security: Moderate consumption of petroleum-based

transportation fuels• Global Warming: Reduce CO2 emissions• Environment: Attain air quality targets in critical areas.

Reduce well-to-wheels criteria emissions

Transportation Sustainability – Four Options (for the Vehicle)• Energy efficiency improvements• Biofuels• Electricity (Renewable or near-zero emitting)• Hydrogen (Also renewable or near-zero emitting)



We have a bright future if we challenge the best minds and marshal their talents…

• Albert Einstein once said that “compounded interest is the most powerful force in the universe”: – 250 year reserves of coal will mean 40 years at 2% growth rate per year.

• Renewable resources:– Solar - Wind -Geothermal– Ocean/Wave energy -- Waste to energy– Agricultural, incl. soy/corn, sugar (e.g., Brazil)

• Biodiessel, cellulosic, ethanol, methanol, biomass– Hydrogen from renewables

• will it require more energy to produce?

• Need new technologies analogous to putting the “man on the moon,” with the urgency of the Manhattan Project,

• Broad range of R&D including end-use and system efficiency,• What will the overall, integrated system/infrastructure look like?



people

planet

prosperity





Discussion and the Road Ahead:

• What are the key energy and security pivotal technologies?– What is your vision for the future– what

will it be like or how will it perform in 2020?

– What are the energy innovation gaps to achieve your vision?

– What pivotal technologies and policies are needed to address these?

– If you are given $10B to invest, 15-year time horizon, with no more than 10% in any given option, what pivotal energy technologies do you choose and why?


Copyright © 2006 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization.Thank you

May others benefit from your lead.



Contact Information

Massoud Amin: [email protected] Keenan: [email protected] Nordstrom: [email protected]



Alternative Selection: Raise Gas Tax

Good PolicyGood PolicyGo

od P

oliti

csGo

od P

oliti

csDo SomethingDo Something

Acco

mpl

ish S

omet

hing

Acco

mpl

ish S

omet

hing

CostsCosts

Bene

fits

Bene

fits

Raise Gas Tax

Yes NoYes

No

Yes NoYes

No

Raise Gas TaxLow High

High

Low Raise Gas Tax



Alternative Selection: Incentives for Hybrid VehiclesGood PolicyGood Policy

Good

Pol

itics

Good

Pol

itics

Do SomethingDo Something

Acco

mpl

ish S

omet

hing

Acco

mpl

ish S

omet

hing

CostsCosts

Bene

fits

Bene

fits

Hybrid Incentives

Yes NoYes

No

Yes NoYes

No

Hybrid IncentivesLow High

High

Low Hybrid Incentives



Alternative Selection: Light Rail ExpansionGood PolicyGood Policy Do SomethingDo Something

Good

Pol

itics

Good

Pol

itics

Acco

mpl

ish S

omet

hing

Acco

mpl

ish S

omet

hing

CostsCosts

Bene

fits

Bene

fitsLight Rail Expansion

Yes NoYes

No

Yes NoYes

No

Light Rail ExpansionLow High

High

Low Light Rail Expansion









Baldwin’s Time Constants

• Political consensus building ~ 3-20+ years• Technical R&D ~10+ • Production model ~ 4+ • Financial ~ 2++ • Market penetration ~10++ • Capital stock turnover

– Cars ~ 15 – Appliances ~ 10-20– Industrial Equipment ~ 10-30/40+– Power plants ~ 40+ – Buildings ~ 80 – Urban form ~100’s

• Lifetime of Greenhouse Gases ~100’s-1000’s• Reversal of Land Use Change ~100’s• Reversal of Extinctions Never

Documents

The Future of Fuels for Transportation