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The Future of Biofuels An Agricultural Perspective
Beth J. Calabotta
Monsanto Company
POPULATION GROWING AT 1.1% EACH YEAR
Source: UN Population Division, Monsanto analysis
INCOMES GROWING AT 3.5% PER YEAR… $5 BILLION PER DAY
Source: IHS Global Insight, Agriculture Division, Monsanto analysis
FOOD DEMAND GROWING AT ~1.75% EACH YEAR
Source: IHS Global Insights, Agriculture Division, Monsanto analysis
WATER DEMAND IS GROWING AT ~2% PER YEAR
Source: McKinsey Resource Revolution 2011, Monsanto Analysis
ENERGY DEMAND IS GROWING AT 2.5% PER YEAR
Source: McKinsey Resource Revolution 2011, Monsanto Analysis
GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND
EXCEEDS GLOBAL FOOD DEMAND
3050 kcal / day
FOOD Consumption
ENERGY Consumption
1.0 E 16 kcal / yr
917.2 quad BTUs / yr
2.3 E 17 kcal / yr
BIOENERGY Will Only Be A Small Part Of The Global Energy Supply
Source: FAO, EIA and Monsanto Estimates
9.2 Billion People
23X GREATER
GLOBAL PROTEIN DEMAND IS INCREASING
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1961 2012
Pro
du
ctio
n (
Mill
ion
to
nn
es)
Animal Primary Products
Eggs Meat Milk
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Pro
du
ctio
n (
Mill
ion
to
nn
es)
Animal Primary Products
Eggs Meat Milk
Source: FAO
POULTRY DOMINATES GLOBAL LIVESTOCK
Source: FAO
Global Livestock
Source: USDA Estimates
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
19
60
19
63
19
66
19
69
19
72
19
75
19
78
19
81
19
84
19
87
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
20
11
20
14
Pro
du
ctio
n, 1
00
0 M
T
Poultry, Meat, Broiler
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1961 2012
Bill
ion
He
ad
Poultry Birds Pigs
Cattle and Buffaloes Sheep and Goats
MANY TOOLS ARE USED TO INCREASE
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVTY
Complementary agronomic and
yield-enhancing traits
BIOTECHNOLOGY
BREEDING
PRECISION AGRICULTURE
Highest yielding genetics for the environment: conventional breeding gains
and natural disease resistance
Optimizing farm management practices, including rotations, soil
management, cover crops
CROP PROTECTION
BIOLOGICALS
Seed treatments and selective chemistries protect the crop from pests, weeds
and diseases
Derived from natural materials to support plant health and pest protection
THE FUTURE: CORN FARMERS WILL LEVERAGE
TECHNOLOGY AND INFORMATION TO IMPROVE
YIELDS
Software: Agronomy Apps to enable Hybrid
Selection & Mapping
Variable Rate Fertility Variable rate N, P & K “Apps”
aligned with yield
management zones
Precision Seeding Planter hardware systems
enabling variable rate seeding
& row spacing of multiple
hybrids in a field by yield
management zone
Fertility & Disease
Management
“Apps” for in-season custom
application of supplemental late
Nitrogen and Fungicides
Yield Monitor High Resolution yield
monitoring hardware with
auto-calibration, harvest
management, and
compaction removal
bu
bu bu
bu
bu
Breeding Orders of magnitude
more data points
per year to increase
genetic gain
bu
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1865 1875 1885 1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Yie
ld,
MT /
Ha
Year
Source: Crop Science. Vol 46:528-543, USDA
CORN YIELDS, ENABLED IN PART BY INNOVATIONS IN
TECHNOLOGY, CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
Double-Cross Hybrids
Single-Cross Hybrids
Biotechnology Era
Open Pollinated
GROW MORE FOOD from less land
SUSTAINABLY REDUCE water and chemical use
MAINTAIN AND BUILD healthy soil
MITIGATE THE IMPACT of drought
REDUCE THE AMOUNT of energy and emissions per unit produced
AGRICULTURE’S CHALLENGE
to grow more feed and fuel safely and sustainably.
ENERGY CROPS PRODUCE OIL
AND / OR CARBOHYDRATES
0
100
200
300
400
500
600 GJ/ha Lignin
GJ/ha Cellulosics
GJ/ha Byproduct (meal, etc)
GJ/ha Protein
GJ/ha Oil
GJ/ha Fermentable Sugar/Starch
THE AMOUNT OF PROTEIN PRODUCED PER UNIT
LAND IS CRITICAL TO MEET FEED DEMAND
0
5
10
15
20
25
gJ/ha Protein
CORN ETHANOL PRODUCTION HELPS TO
CONCENTRATE CORN PROTEIN
Corn
Production
Ethanol
Production
Animal
Production
Distillers Dried Grains
% Crude Protein Metabolizable Energy,
Poultry, kcal/kg
Canola Meal 36.9 1.75
DDGs 27.1 2.53
Corn, Grain 9.1 3.31
Soybean Meal 45.7 2.33
DISTILLERS GRAINS SOYMEAL DISPLACEMENT
IMPACTS LAND USE
Dairy Beef Swine Poultry
Corn 0.731 1.196 0.699 0.589
Soybean meal 0.633 0.295 0.446
Displacement Ratio, by Species (kg / kg)
Total Area, M acres
Total US Corn Production 87.7
Production for Ethanol 29.26
Distillers Grain – Corn Area Credit
(8.64)
Distillers Grain – Soy Area Credit (7.47)
Corn “Net Acres” 13.14
Net acres corn required for ethanol
Source: Shurson
TREATED CORN STALKS MAKE GREAT CATTLE FEED
AND DEVELOP BIOMASS MARKETS • Increased corn yield increases corn stalk yield
• Corn stalks can be sustainably removed
• Lime treated corn stalks displace a portion of corn in the diet
• Economics work – develops channel today
• Frees up 2.2 B bushels of corn for alternative use
Heifers enjoying CRF
43M tons potential use
0
1
2
3
4
Corn Ration CRF Ration
Wig
ht
Gai
n, l
bs/
day
Supplement
DDGS
Stover
Corn
3.90 % 3.84% Diet Percentage
$90.54 $118.58 Return per Steer
TOTAL CORN AND SOY PRODUCTION GROWING AT
FASTER RATE THAN CALORIE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Yie
ld, H
g /
Ha
Tho
usa
nd
s
Har
vest
ed
Are
a, H
a
Mill
ion
s
Maize Area Maize Yield
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1960 1980 2000 2020
Yie
ld, H
g /
Ha
Tho
usa
nd
s
Har
vest
ed
Are
a, H
a M
illio
ns
Soybean Area Soybean Yield
Corn CAGR
Yield 1.84%
Area 1.02%
Production 2.88%
Soybean CAGR
Yield 1.40%
Area 2.95%
Production 4.40%
Agricultural technology will continue to provide farmers with tools to increase yields
ECONOMICS ARE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR
BIOENERGY
Annual Price Change
1900-2000
Energy 0.3 % Discoveries, OPEC
Food -0.7 % Grain yield increase
Water 0 % Subsidies
Bioenergy
Boom
Innovations in agriculture, and particularly methods to
improve yields of concentrated protein for animal feed
are required to meet future feed and fuel demands
