The Future Need for Petroleum Geoscientists Future of Earth Scientists Committee

DWL 2002/AAPGDWL 2002/AAPG

The Future Need for

Petroleum Geoscientists

Future of Earth Scientists CommitteeFuture of Earth Scientists Committee

AAPG House of DelegatesAAPG House of Delegates

Donald W. LewisDonald W. Lewis


ApproachApproach

• Add AAPG + SEG membership, eliminate overlap and use only Add AAPG + SEG membership, eliminate overlap and use only members working in petroleum industrymembers working in petroleum industry

• Project current membership to 2020, assuming retirement at 65Project current membership to 2020, assuming retirement at 65

• Relate membership to oil & gas production and project to 2020Relate membership to oil & gas production and project to 2020

• Compare geoscientist demand to supply at current rate of Compare geoscientist demand to supply at current rate of people obtaining geoscience degrees and entering petroleum people obtaining geoscience degrees and entering petroleum industryindustry

What will the Demand for Petroleum Geoscientists What will the Demand for Petroleum Geoscientists Be to the Year 2020?Be to the Year 2020?


Edwards 2001YEAR

Estimates of 21st CenturyEstimates of 21st CenturyWorld Energy SuppliesWorld Energy Supplies


Edwards 2001

Estimates of 21st CenturyEstimates of 21st CenturyUnited States Energy SuppliesUnited States Energy Supplies


AAPG + SEG Members in Worldwide Petroleum IndustryAAPG + SEG Members in Worldwide Petroleum Industry1978 - 2001 (Overlap Excluded)1978 - 2001 (Overlap Excluded)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000

AAPG

SEG

SEG increase innon-U.S. members

Excludes retired, students, academia, mining, environmental, other and >65Excludes retired, students, academia, mining, environmental, other and >65Excludes SEG - AAPG overlapExcludes SEG - AAPG overlap


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000

AAPG + SEG Members in U.S. Petroleum IndustryAAPG + SEG Members in U.S. Petroleum Industry1978 - 2001 (Overlap Excluded)1978 - 2001 (Overlap Excluded)

AAPG

SEG

Excludes retired, students, academia, mining, environmental, other and >65Excludes retired, students, academia, mining, environmental, other and >65Excludes SEG - AAPG overlapExcludes SEG - AAPG overlap


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

'<21 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65 66-70 71-75 76-80 81-85 86-90 91-95 >95

Age

SEG

AAPG

Worldwide AAPG +SEG Membership in 2001Worldwide AAPG +SEG Membership in 2001


United States AAPG +SEG Membership in 2001United States AAPG +SEG Membership in 2001

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

'<21 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65 66-70 71-75 76-80 81-85 86-90 91-95 '>95

Age

SEG

AAPG


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000 2 4 6 8 2010 12 14 16 18 2020

AAPG + SEG Members in Worldwide Petroleum IndustryAAPG + SEG Members in Worldwide Petroleum Industry1978 - 2020 (Overlap Excluded)1978 - 2020 (Overlap Excluded)

AAPG

SEG

Current (2001) members onlyCurrent (2001) members onlyExcludes retired, students, academia, mining, environmental, other and >65Excludes retired, students, academia, mining, environmental, other and >65Assumes retirement at 65 and excludes SEG - AAPG overlapAssumes retirement at 65 and excludes SEG - AAPG overlap

2001


AAPG + SEG members in U.S. Petroleum Industry 1978-2020

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000 2 4 6 8 2010 12 14 16 18 2020

AAPG + SEG Members in U.S. Petroleum IndustryAAPG + SEG Members in U.S. Petroleum Industry1978 - 2020 (Overlap Excluded)1978 - 2020 (Overlap Excluded)

AAPG

SEG

Current (2001) members onlyCurrent (2001) members onlyExcludes retired, students, academia, mining, environmental, other and >65Excludes retired, students, academia, mining, environmental, other and >65Assumes retirement at 65 and excludes SEG - AAPG overlapAssumes retirement at 65 and excludes SEG - AAPG overlap

2001


0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000 2 4 6 8 2010 12 14 16 18 2020

Worldwide Oil & Gas Production andWorldwide Oil & Gas Production andAAPG + SEG Members in Petroleum IndustryAAPG + SEG Members in Petroleum Industry1978 - 20201978 - 2020

Worldwide O&G Worldwide O&G Production, MMB/YrProduction, MMB/Yr


2001

AAPG + SEG AAPG + SEG Members in Members in

Petroleum IndustryPetroleum Industry




0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

•c

U.S. Oil & Gas Production andU.S. Oil & Gas Production andAAPG + SEG Members in Petroleum IndustryAAPG + SEG Members in Petroleum Industry1978 - 20201978 - 2020

U.S. O&G U.S. O&G Production, MMB/YrProduction, MMB/Yr


2001





78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000 2 4 6 8 2010 12 14 16 18 2020


0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000 2 4 6 8 2010 12 14 16 18 2020

Worldwide O&G Production perWorldwide O&G Production perAAPG + SEG Member in Worldwide Petroleum IndustryAAPG + SEG Member in Worldwide Petroleum Industry1978 - 20201978 - 2020

Assumes improvements in technology yield 1 - 2% increase in production/memberAssumes improvements in technology yield 1 - 2% increase in production/member

2001

2% / Yr2% / YrIncreaseIncrease

1% / Yr Increase1% / Yr Increase

MM

BO

E/Y

ear/

Mem

ber

MM

BO

E/Y

ear/

Mem

ber


0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000 2 4 6 8 2010 12 14 16 18 2020

2001

U.S. O&G Production perU.S. O&G Production perAAPG + SEG Member in U.S. Petroleum IndustryAAPG + SEG Member in U.S. Petroleum Industry1978 - 20201978 - 2020

Assumes improvements in technology yield 1 - 2% increase in production/memberAssumes improvements in technology yield 1 - 2% increase in production/member



MM

BO

E/Y

ear/

Mem

ber

MM

BO

E/Y

ear/

Mem

ber

Prod/MemberProd/Member


0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000 2 4 6 8 2010 12 14 16 18 2020

If 25% of worldwide geoscientists in petroleum industry are members of If 25% of worldwide geoscientists in petroleum industry are members of AAPG or SEG, gap is 4 times larger than shownAAPG or SEG, gap is 4 times larger than shown

2001

Worldwide Petroleum Geoscientist DemandWorldwide Petroleum Geoscientist DemandBased on AAPG + SEG Membership OnlyBased on AAPG + SEG Membership Only



GeoscientistsGeoscientistsNeeded at 2%Needed at 2%

Geoscientists Geoscientists Needed at 1%Needed at 1%

Geoscientists AvailableGeoscientists Available GAPGAP


0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000 2 4 6 8 2010 12 14 16 18 2020

If 25% of worldwide geoscientists in petroleum industry are members of If 25% of worldwide geoscientists in petroleum industry are members of AAPG or SEG, gap is 4 times larger than shownAAPG or SEG, gap is 4 times larger than shown

2001

Worldwide Petroleum Geoscientist DemandWorldwide Petroleum Geoscientist DemandBased on AAPG + SEG Membership OnlyBased on AAPG + SEG Membership Only





Geoscientists AvailableGeoscientists Available GAPGAP


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000 2 4 6 8 2010 12 14 16 18 2020

If 2/3 of U.S. geoscientists in petroleum industry are members of AAPG If 2/3 of U.S. geoscientists in petroleum industry are members of AAPG or SEG, gap is 50% larger than shownor SEG, gap is 50% larger than shown

2001

U.S. Petroleum Geoscientist DemandU.S. Petroleum Geoscientist DemandBased on AAPG + SEG Membership OnlyBased on AAPG + SEG Membership Only





Geoscientists AvailableGeoscientists Available

GAPGAP


Will the Gap Be Filled?Will the Gap Be Filled?

• Assumes all graduates work on U.S. production, i.e., none work on non-U.S.Assumes all graduates work on U.S. production, i.e., none work on non-U.S.

• ““Gap 1%” assumes technology improvement of 1% per yearGap 1%” assumes technology improvement of 1% per year

• Gap numbers assume AAPG + SEG members are 2/3 of petroleum geoscientists Gap numbers assume AAPG + SEG members are 2/3 of petroleum geoscientists in U.S.in U.S.

• Assume 2000 level of 4000 U.S. geoscience degrees of which 1250 are MS & Assume 2000 level of 4000 U.S. geoscience degrees of which 1250 are MS & PhD. Percentage entering petroleum industry are for 1999PhD. Percentage entering petroleum industry are for 1999

• K&C percentage includes Canada and did not use same categories as AGI studyK&C percentage includes Canada and did not use same categories as AGI studySources: NSF, AGI (2000), Katz & Claudy (2000)Sources: NSF, AGI (2000), Katz & Claudy (2000)

• U.S. Geoscience Graduates Compared to Geoscientists Needed in U.S. Petroleum IndustryU.S. Geoscience Graduates Compared to Geoscientists Needed in U.S. Petroleum Industry

GeoscientistGeoscientistGap/YearGap/Year Graduates Entering Petroleum IndustryGraduates Entering Petroleum Industry

BS + MS + PhDBS + MS + PhD MS + PhDMS + PhD

@7.6% (AGI)@7.6% (AGI) @14.4% (AGI)@14.4% (AGI) @ 23.8% (K&C)@ 23.8% (K&C)

300300 180180 300300

1%1% 2%2%

420420 210210


Will There Be Jobs?Will There Be Jobs?

• Median age of AAPG and SEG members is in the 46-50 group. Median age of AAPG and SEG members is in the 46-50 group. As the older half reaches retirement, the need for replacements As the older half reaches retirement, the need for replacements will increase.will increase.

• World oil and gas production will equal or exceed today’s level World oil and gas production will equal or exceed today’s level for the next 40 - 60 years. Thousands of geoscientists will be for the next 40 - 60 years. Thousands of geoscientists will be needed to discover and recover these reserves.needed to discover and recover these reserves.

• U.S. oil and gas production will decline slowly for the next U.S. oil and gas production will decline slowly for the next 20 - 40 years and will require a continuing U.S. geoscience work 20 - 40 years and will require a continuing U.S. geoscience work force larger than that remaining after the coming retirements.force larger than that remaining after the coming retirements.

• Even with geoscience technology continuing to improve at the Even with geoscience technology continuing to improve at the rate of the last ten years, 200 - 400 new geoscientists per year rate of the last ten years, 200 - 400 new geoscientists per year will be required for the U.S. petroleum industry.will be required for the U.S. petroleum industry.


Will There Be Jobs?Will There Be Jobs?

• Additional new geoscientists will be required in the U.S. Additional new geoscientists will be required in the U.S. working on non-U.S. areas and in other countries working for working on non-U.S. areas and in other countries working for American companiesAmerican companies

• Although the number of petroleum geoscientists worldwide is Although the number of petroleum geoscientists worldwide is unknown, a conservative estimate is that 2000 - 3500 new unknown, a conservative estimate is that 2000 - 3500 new geoscientists per year will be required in the petroleum geoscientists per year will be required in the petroleum industry (including the U.S.)industry (including the U.S.)

• The requirement for petroleum geoscientists will last at least as The requirement for petroleum geoscientists will last at least as long as a career.long as a career.

YES!YES!


Edwards 2001YEAR

Estimates of 21st CenturyEstimates of 21st CenturyWorld Energy SuppliesWorld Energy Supplies

Petroleum Petroleum GeoscientistGeoscientist

Career OpportunitiesCareer Opportunities


Edwards 2001

Estimates of 21st CenturyEstimates of 21st CenturyUnited States Energy SuppliesUnited States Energy Supplies

PetroleumPetroleumGeoscientistGeoscientist

CareerCareerOpportunitiesOpportunities


Many assumptions are necessary, among which are:Many assumptions are necessary, among which are:

• Retirement at age 65Retirement at age 65

• Technology improvement at same rate as last ten yearsTechnology improvement at same rate as last ten years

• Production forecastProduction forecast

• In U.S., two-thirds of petroleum geoscientists are AAPG or In U.S., two-thirds of petroleum geoscientists are AAPG or SEG membersSEG members

AssumptionsAssumptions

Documents

The Future Need for Petroleum Geoscientists Future of Earth Scientists Committee