“The Future is Your Decision”

CEO Forum

[email protected] www.itreconomics.com

“The Future is Your Decision”Presented by

ITR®

Brian Beaulieu

September 2011

www.itreconomics.com

2

The U.S. economy remains almost comatose. The current slump already ranks as the longest period of sustained weakness since the Great Depression. Once-in-a-lifetime dislocations will take years to work out. Among them: the job drought, the debt hangover, the defense-industry contraction, the banking collapse, the real estate depression, the health-care cost explosion and the runaway federal deficit.

September 1992


3US Industrial Production to Gross Domestic ProductYear-over-year Quarter to Quarter (3/12)

-14.6%

-5.3%-3.1%

-7.1%

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%

3.4%3.4%

3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%

GDPUS IP


• Leading indicators pointing up• Liquidity is not an issue• Exports are up• Simulative monetary policy• Employment rising (companies right-sized)• Banks are lending • Normal seasonal rise in Retail Sales • $447 bils stimulus program

Recovery


• Europe’s financial troubles might…• China’s housing/inflation bubble could…• International banking crisis becomes…• Oil prices could break through $120 …• USD could lose all credibility causing…

Recession in 2012


6US Total Industrial Production Index

2002 = 100, S.A.

3/12 12/12

3MMA 12MMA

ITR Trends Report

'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-24

-18

-12

-6

0

6

12

40

90

140

190

240

290

340R-O-C MMA

4.9

92.6

3.4


7Global Industrial Production Indices

12/12 Rates-of-Change

ITR Trends Report

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico

4.8 Mexico

4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US

4.9 US

4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia

8.4 SE Asia

8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe

5.9 Europe

5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe


8

'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-27

-18

-9

0

9

18

27

US IPChina IP

US IP China

US Industrial Production to China Industrial Production12/12 Rates-of-Change


9

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

US IP

Japan IP

US Industrial Production to Japan Industrial Production12/12 Rates-of-Change

ITR Trends Report


10

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-12

-6

0

6

12

18

-12

-6

0

6

12

18

CanadaU.S.

US Industrial Production to Canadian Industrial Production12/12 Rates-of-Change


11

'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

US IPIndia IP

US IP India

US Industrial Production to India Industrial Production12/12 Rates-of-Change


12

US, Colorado, & Rocky Mountains Annual GSP Growth Rate

'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

U.S. Colorado Rocky Mountains


13

Unemployment Rates

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

U.S. Colorado


14Colorado 4th Opportunity Index Score: 66.6

National Average: 50.9

Entrepreneur-ial

Environment

Business Costs

Workforce Quality

Demograph-ics

Local Market Conditions

Real Estate Stability

0

5

10

15

20

827

35

14 23

Com

pone

nt S

core


152010 Exports from Colorado to the World

Billions of USD

34.0%

13.0%11.3%

7.3%

6.1%

4.5%

23.7%336--TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT

325--CHEMICALS

212--MINERALS & ORES

333--MACHINERY, EXCEPT ELECTRICAL

322--PAPER

331--PRIMARY METAL MFG

ALL OTHER


16Example: Revenue 12MMTMonthly

SeptOct

NovDec

10101010

3MMT = 4.63

JanFeb

Mar

111111

3MMT = 5.14

AprMayJune

111111

3MMT = 4.98

JulyAug

Sept

111111

3MMT = 4.223MMT = 3.953MMT = 4.24

12MMT = 18.7012MMT = 18.97

12MMT = 17.54

8.2%


17

RATE-OF-CHANGE

ACTUAL MONTHLY DATA AS OF 8/11ACTUAL MONTHLY DATA AS OF 8/10

3-MOS MOVING TOTAL (3MMT) AS OF 8/113-MOS MOVING TOTAL (3MMT) AS OF 8/10

ANNUAL MOVING TOTAL (12MMT) AS OF 8/11ANNUAL MOVING TOTAL (12MMT) AS OF 8/10

= 1/12

= 3/12

= 12/12


18

'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-40

-32

-24

-16

-8

0

8

16

100

130

160

190

220

250

280

310

109.0

R-O-C MMT3/12

12/12

3MMT

12MMT

Colorado Construction Industry EmploymentThousands of Units


19

'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

550

900

1250

1600

1950

2300

2650

-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6

-5.6

-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6

806.2

R-O-C MMT3/12

12/12

3MMT12MMT

Denver Construction Industry EmploymentThousands of Units


20Employment – Private SectorAnnual Data Trend

'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '1485

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Employment Mils of Jobs

ITR Trends Report


21


22

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

236128

-158

-378 -413-318-248-161

-455

-1552-1449

-1173

-939 -938-955-925-988-1013-1031-1145

OMB’s 10-Year Deficit Projections(Baseline of Current Policy)

Billions of Dollars


23


24

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

CPIUA 12/12UNEMP 12MMA

CPIUA UNEMP

Unemployment Rate to Consumer Price IndexData Trends to Rates-of-Change


25

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

US Industrial Production Index2007 = 100

Forecast Through December 2012Annual Average Index


26Consumer Loan Delinquency Rates3MMA and 12MMA

'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-2

0

2

4

6

-2

0

2

4

6

3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%

3.6%

3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%

3.2%

3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%

3MMA12MMA


27Delinquency Rates for C&I Loans3/12 & 12/12 Rates-of-Change

'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-80

-40

0

40

80

120

160

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

160

-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%

-41.0%

-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%

-32.8%

-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%

3/1212/12


28Commercial & Industrial Loans at Commercial BanksRates-of-Change

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

3/1212/12


29Corporate Profits – 1st QuarterBillions of $

Transportation and warehousing

Utilities

Wholesale trade

Information

Retail trade

Manufacturing

Financial

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400

$26.9

$37.7

$103.9

$69.6

$97.7

$141.0

$141.6

$39.4

$41.5

$91.5

$112.9

$129.1

$250.4

$362.7

$37.3

$31.9

$73.5

$123.3

$124.0

$280.6

$378.4

2011 (1Q SAAR)

2010

2009

Source: BEA


30

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

US IPFabricated Metals

US IP Metals

US Industrial Production to Fabricated Metal Products Production12/12 Rates-of-Change

ITR Trends Report


31US Industrial Production to Plastics Products Production12/12 Rates-of-Change

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-18

-12

-6

0

6

12

-18

-12

-6

0

6

12

US IPPlastics

US IP Plastics

ITR Trends Report


32

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-16

-8

0

8

16

24

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

US IPInvestment

US IP Investment

US Industrial Production to Equipment & Software Investment12/12 Rates-of-Change

ITR Trends Report


33

'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

US IPSales

Retail Sales for Eating Places to US Industrial Production12/12 Rates-of-Change

ITR Trends Report


34

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

US IPHotel & Motel Expenditures

US IP Expenditures

US Industrial Production to Hotel & Motel Expenditures12/12 Rates-of-Change


35Trends 10

Housing

Foreign

New Orders

Retail

Soft Landing

Financial

Production

Wholesale Trade

Prices

Medical

NonresidentialConstruction

Hard Landing

ITR Trends Report


36Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders w/o AircraftBillions of $

'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

10.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.214.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.9

14.9

14.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.9

$770.7

R-O-C MMT

Oct '09

Nov '09

Jul '08

Feb '113/12 12/12

3MMT

12MMT

ITR Trends Report


37Ratio of Inventories to New OrdersRaw Data

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '140.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.02

RIO

Nov '07

Feb '09


38

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.2

6.26.2

6.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.22.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.6

2.6

2.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.6

4.0

R-O-C MMA

Dec '09

Oct '09

Jul '95

Nov '10

M2 Money SupplyTrillions of 82$

12/12

3MMA12MMA

3/12

ITR Trends Report


39Mortgage Rates to Federal FundsRaw Data

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015-2

2

6

10

14

18

22

-2

2

6

10

14

18

22

Mortgage RatesFederal Funds


40Crude Oil Futures PricesLight & Sweet $ per Barrel

'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

-40

40

120

200

280

360

23.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.6

23.623.6

23.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.694.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.1

94.1

94.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.121.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.8

21.821.8

21.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.8

R-O-C MMA

Sep '09

Aug '08

Sep '09

Sep '08

3/12 12/12

12MMA 3MMA

ITR Trends Report


41

'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '140

4

8

12

16

20

0

4

8

12

16

20

Short-Term Interest RatesLong-Term Bonds

Short-Term Interest Rates to US Gov’t Long-Term Bond YieldsRaw Data Trends


42US Industrial Production to Corporate Bond Prices12/12 Rates-of-Change

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

US IPCorporate Bonds

US IP Bonds

ITR Trends Report


43US Leading Indicator1996 = 100

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-24

-18

-12

-6

0

6

12

65

80

95

110

125

140

155

112.7

R-O-C MMA

Jun '09

Apr '09

Aug '07

Oct '103/12

12/12

3MMA12MMA

ITR Trends Report


44Purchasing Managers Index to US Industrial Production12/12 Rate-of-Change

'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

US IPPurchasing Index

US IP Purchasing


45Stock Prices IndexS&P 500, 1941-43 = 10

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-90

-60

-30

0

30

60

200

1000

1800

2600

3400

4200

20.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.4

20.4

20.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

16.3

0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

1270.2

R-O-C MMA

Apr '11

Oct '10

Sep '09

Dec '07

3/12 12/12

3MMA

12MMA

ITR Trends Report


46

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

3MMA12MMA

Stock Prices IndexData Trends


47Retail Sales Excluding AutomobilesTrillions of 82-84$

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-21

-14

-7

0

7

14

1.00

1.75

2.50

3.25

4.00

4.75

0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.01.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.02.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

$2.094

R-O-C MMT

Feb '11

Jul '09

Jan '10

Nov '07

3/1212/12

3MMT 12MMT

ITR Trends Report


48Personal SavingsBillions of $, Annual Data Trend

SAAR

'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '140

200

400

600

800

1000

0

200

400

600

800

1000


49

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Building DealersRetail Sales

Retailers Sales

Retail Sales Excluding Autos toBuilding Materials & Supplies Dealers



50

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-12

-6

0

6

12

18

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

Education

Retail Sales

Education Sales

Education Expenditures to Retail Sales excluding Autos12/12 Rates-of-Change


51Housing StartsMillions of Units

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-90

-75

-60

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

0.2

0.7

1.2

1.7

2.2

2.7

3.2

3.7

4.2

5.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.0-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2

0.571

R-O-C MMT

Mar '06

Nov '10

Sep '09

Dec '09

3/12

12/12

3MMA 12MMT

ITR Trends Report


52Existing Home SalesMillions of Units

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

9.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.1

9.1

9.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.1-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5

-8.5

-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5

4.9

R-O-C MMT

3/12 12/12

3MMT12MMT


53Building Permits


'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

U.S. Colorado


54

'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

44.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.2

44.2

44.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.217.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.9

12.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.1

12.1

12.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.1

R-O-C MMT

3/12 12/12

3MMT12MMT

Colorado Building PermitsThousands of Units


55

'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

5.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.2-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1

4.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.0

R-O-C MMT

3/12

12/12

3MMT12MMT

Denver Building PermitsThousands of Units


56US to Denver Median Home Sale Prices

Annual Data Trends

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14140

170

200

230

260

140

170

200

230

260

$231.2

$169.8 US Median PriceDenver Median Price

US Denver


57Colorado Housing Price Index

Year over Year % Change

'78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Raw


58

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 201535

65

95

125

155

50

150

250

350

450

Index

Index Construction

US Industrial Production to Non-Residential ConstructionData Trends


59

'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-300

-225

-150

-75

0

75

150

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.512.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.9

1.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.0

1.0

1.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.0

R-O-C MMT

3/12

12/12

3MMT12MMT

Colorado – Total Value of Commercial ConstructionBillions of $


60

'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '145

25

45

65

85

105

0

5

10

15

20

25

PublicPrivate

Public Private

Public & Private Educational Buildings ConstructionData Trends


61Company L to US Industrial Production


'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-18

-12

-6

0

6

12

18

24

SalesUS Production

Sales US IP


62

Four Phases

AA

B BC C

D D

Expansion

Bankrupt

ITR Trends Report


63

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

GoldCopper

Gold Prices to Copper Futures PricesRaw Data


64

Managing Inflationary Pressures• Phase B… raise prices (as justified) • Consider real cost of living vs. nominal CPI• Highlight quality, content, service ~ competitive advantage• Borrow now – fixed as long as possible

o Inflation favors debtorso Purchase land/property – leasing rises with inflationo Build in efficiencies for long-term cost savings

• Lower fixed costs ~ increase variable costs for increased flexibility• Re-assess domestic sources (inflation will be imported)• Rigorous cost controls – hire the best accountant/CFO• R & D ~ substitute products and materials• Move liquid assets off shore• Hire now and/or lock in labor rates• Select price indices that magnify inflation negotiating with customers• Select price indices that minimize inflation negotiating with vendors

o Get Vendors to agree to longer-term price commitments• Sell overseas


65

Phase Late A – Recovery

1. Positive leadership modeling (culture turns to behavior)

2. Establish goals: tactical goals which lead to strategic achievement

3. Develop a system for measurement and accountability re:#2

4. Align compensation plans with #2 and #3

5. Be keenly aware of the BE (Break Even) point and check it regularly

6. Judiciously expand credit

7. Check distributions systems for readiness to accommodate

increased activity

8. Review and uncover competitive advantages

9. Invest in customer market research (know what they value)

10. Improve efficiencies with investment in technology and software

Phase Management ObjectivesTM:

ITR Trends Report


66

Phase Late A – Recovery

Part 211. Start to phase out marginal opportunities

12. Add sales staff

13. Build inventories (consider lead time and turn rate)

14. Introduce new product lines

15. Determine capital equipment needs and place orders

16. Begin advertising and sales promotions

17. Hire "top" people

18. Implement plans for facilities expansion

19. Implement training programs


ITR Trends Report


67

Phase Early B – Growth1. Accelerate training

2. Check the process flow for possible future bottlenecks

3. Continue to build inventory

4. Increase prices

5. Consider outside manufacturing sources if internal

pressures becoming tight

6. Find the answer to “What next?”

7. Open distribution centers

8. Use improved cash flow to improve corporate governance

9. Use cash to create new competitive advantages

10. Watch your debt-to-equity ratio and ROI

11. Maintain/pursue quality: don’t let complacency set in


ITR Trends Report


68

Phase Late B Early C – Prosperity

1. Stay in stock on A items, be careful with C items

2. Consider selling the business in a climate of maximum “goodwill”

3. Penetrate new selected accounts

4. Develop plan for lower activity in traditional, mature markets

5. Freeze all expansion plans (unless related to “what is next”)

6. Spin off undesirable operations

7. Consider taking on subcontract work if the backside of the cycle

looks recessionary

8. Stay realistic – beware of linear budgets

9. Begin missionary efforts into new markets

10. Communicate competitive advantages to maintain margins


ITR Trends Report


69

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

60

75

ExpendituresOrders

Expenditures Orders

Reagan Bush Clinton BushCarter Obama

National Defense Expenditures to Defense Capital Goods N.O.12/12 Rates-of-Change


70

EnergyGreenWaterCanada/ExportsHigher EducationHealth Care

Practices

FoodPetsFuneral ServicesAlcoholSecurityLegal Services

(Diversified)

Find a way to do business in the “counter-cyclical” or largely unaffected areas:


71Net Migration


72Net Migration – Top 15

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

UT AL CA VA NV OR TNCO SC

WA FL

GA AZ

NC

TX

Thousands

US Census Bureau, Annual Population Estimates, Net Migration 1 July 2008 - 1 July 2009


73Net Migration – Bottom 15

-100

-90

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

MI

NY

OH

ID NJMD

RI AK VT ND NEWI MS NH HI

Thousands

US Census Bureau, Annual Population Estimates, Net Migration 1 July 2008 - 1 July 2009


74

USA ~ 300 million grows to 400 – 500 millionIndiaIndonesiaAustraliaSpainMexicoBrazil

Demographics

Winning Demographics

Negative DemographicsChinaEuropeJapanRussia (13% want to leave)

Source: United Nations


75

23.3

9.3

8.75.3

4.1

3.6

3.3

3.3

2.52.4

2.32.2 2.0 1.7 1.6

United States

China

JapanGermany

FranceUnited Kingdom

Brazil

Italy

Canada

India

Russia

SpainAustralia

Mexico

South Korea

Source: IMF

World GDP, Bils of US $, Current Prices Percent of World GDP


76

To learn how incorporating economic data into your planning process can

increase your profitability,please contact

[email protected]

Clients and Subscribers may call at any time to

ask questions.


77

Be sure to tune in to “Make Your Move” with Alan & Brian Beaulieu

Mondays at 4 PM Eastern Time on the VoiceAmerica Business Channel

Listen live at www.voiceamerica.com


78Total U.S. Public Debt(% of GDP)

1920

1921

1922

1923

1924

1925

1926

1927

1928

1929

1930

1931

1932

1933

1934

1935

1936

1937

1938

1939

1940

1941

1942

1943

1944

1945

1946

1947

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

120.0%

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“The Future is Your Decision”