The Forecast // Beauty

The Forecast Beauty

By Usbek & Rica I November 2014

Table of contents

Beauty Today & Tomorrow | November 2014

METHODOLOGY INTRODUCTION PART 1 – MARKET DYNAMICS PART 2 – CONSUMERS’ATTITUDES PART 3 – GLOBAL INDUSTRY TRENDS

PART 4 – THE FUTURE OF BEAUTY

Methodology

For this study report, the Usbek & Rica team has analyzed, selected and prioritized the collected information from a sociological, cultural and marketing perspectives. To do so, they have used a variety of tools, both internal and external, combining:

•  Insights (analysis of research studies that have been published in the media)

•  Experts (interviews, fairs, conferences, seminars, round tables)

•  Daily watch (specialized websites, blogs, social media, print and online magazines)

•  In-situ observations (travel trips, shop visits, art exhibitions, films, advertising, the street)


This study report outlines the key current and future trends in global beauty. Here, the term “beauty” encompasses product innovation, retail concepts, consumer behaviors and cultural rituals. It focuses on female beauty, and the men’s perspective will be analyzed in a future dedicated report. Through a combination of market, consumer insights and product case studies, this analysis depicts an industry that is incredibly fast-paced, multifaceted and interconnected. In a world where anything is available anywhere at anytime, beauty consumers have become more demanding towards the products and services they use everyday, and so they expect even more from the brands they purchase. The highly competitive environment is forcing companies to adopt a forward-thinking mentality and constantly innovate to cater to ever-evolving consumer needs and stay in the competition.

Pressured consumers demand time-saving options more than ever before. With time now an essential in the beauty equation, brands and retailers are reacting by providing quick fixes, express results, and fast, convenient services. As self-image is now crucial, consumers and brands alike have cultivated a new definition of ident i ty and indiv idual i ty. Recent movements are dismantling traditional beauty ideals, with women celebrating diversity and favoring “real” beauty over imposed standards. What’s more, the latest technological and digital advancements are taking center stage and driving the future of the industry. Cutting-edge product innovations are changing how consumers use, interact with and think about beauty.

Introduction


PART 1 – MARKET DYNAMICS

United States

The US cosmetics industry is predicted to generate US$60.58 billion in revenue

in 2015 and US$62.46 billion in 2016, up from

2014’s US$58.79.


Russia


Sales of perfumery and cosmetic goods would have

grown by 14.1% in 2013 and approached US$15

billion (11,1 billion €) versus 13.2% in 2012.

Brazil

Brazil is predicted to be the powerhouse of beauty

in the future, replacing North America in terms of ranking- this represents a massive 73% of absolute

growth by 2017.


Find our complete analysis in the full report! Contact us at: [email protected]

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PART 2 – CONSUMERS’ ATTITUDES TOWARDS BEAUTY

1. Global consumers’ expectations

What do consumers expect from brands and retailers when they purchase beauty products?


Instant gratification

Busy and impatient consumers pick health and beauty products that promise speedy results. They want instant gratification with minimum fuss, and marketers are getting innovative in the speed game.

Essentials Products that are functional, effective and deliver god results. Usually consumers are ready to spend a premium on basic skin care products such as cleansers, toners and moisturizers that are the foundation of their beauty look.

Access

Security

The downturn has not halted people' desire to maximize the quality of their consumption. These savvy shoppers are seeking alternative ways to access indulgences that were previously exclusive to the wealthy. “Affordable luxuries“ are perceived as a good way to bring pleasure and joy and, in some cases, to gain appeal as consumers satisfy their need for regular treats in their lives.

Beauty consumers want to make sure they are using products of good quality. To this end, they favor products that are clinically tested and approved.



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2. Global consumer drivers

What are the motivations leading consumers to purchase beauty products?


1 Values: attitude, balance, self-esteem Self-confidence

For self and others: consumers - and even more women - engage in beauty and grooming both for themselves and those around them. They do this as a reward, confidence booster and best version of themselves, as well as to impart an impression on and convey an image to others. According to L'Oréal Beauty Track 2012/13, 36% of female consumers think that beauty evokes self-confidence first of all.


2 Values: identity, seduction, community Image

Appearance is inescapable now more than ever. It surrounds us subtly or overtly, changes how we are perceived as individuals and as a culture, and alters how we feel in the first person and as viewers and consumers. In an era of omnipresent cameras, photo opps and social media, the need to look good is strong. People everywhere embrace instant and ongoing shots at perfection (e.g. lash extensions, Botox and fillers, wigs). There is some social pressure coming from the media that invites to improve one’s physical appearance, be it through cosmetics, medicine or plastic surgery.


3 Values: experimentation, innovation Discovery

Consumers want formulas that embody versatility, diversity and individuality and are in favor of images that suggest more flexible identities. Social networks and beauty technologies (virtual makeovers, cropping, filtering programs) have given women the permission to endlessly experiment with and share new looks. 71% of women buy or try a new skincare product every month, according to a poll of Allure readers (October 2014).



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3. Cultural behaviors & rituals

United States

Attitudes towards beauty:

•  High maintenance •  Looks are often highly sophisticated, especially when going out at

night •  Experimentation & fun are key for younger consumers •  Strong influence of trends and celebrities •  Performance & confidence drive older consumers •  High demand for tailored products •  High involvement in sports & fitness: gym classes, working out,

running Rituals and favorites: •  Facial cleansing •  Makeup removal •  Nail salons •  Tanning •  Hair color •  Brow shaping •  Multitasking products •  Cosmetic surgical and nonsurgical procedures

Insight

94% of American Millennial women use

makeup to enhance their features.

(Source: Factbrowser.com

June 2013)


Russia


•  Beauty is both considered as necessary and fun •  With a female-dominated population, women rely on their

appearance as a competitive asset •  Pressure to look good as appearance portrays social status •  In a relatively new beauty market, the west is the main source of

inspiration •  Beauty standards set by society are strictly followed, resulting in

quick reactions to changing beauty trends and offers •  Increasing demand for premium & high-value goods, perceived

as more effective and prestigious •  Wider information access leading to greater education about the

importance of personal hygiene •  Many feel they are now "catching up" with purchases of heated

lash curlers and facial cleaners Rituals and favorites: •  Solarium for tanning •  Sauna (banya) for detox •  Professional skin treatments are popular - brow and lash dye •  Brow shaping

Insight

74% of Russian women 18-55 years old would like

to look younger.

(Source: TNS, 2013)


Brazil


•  Beauty is of high importance, and high involvement •  High maintenance •  High attention to looking good everyday, all day long •  Bodies are on constant display - need to appear fit and toned •  Appearance is under control •  Appearance communicates political leanings and social class •  Diversity, creativity & experimentation are key •  Strong influence of trends and celebrities, both Western & local •  Beauty is about enhancement & sophistication •  Consumers expect to get a lot of advice Rituals and favorites: •  Plastic surgery is in high demand •  Hair is king - rise in hair moisturizing •  Waxing, sculpting massages, and manicures used everyday •  Nail art •  Natural raw materials and cosmetic actives •  The acai berry is used as an antioxidant and revitalizing

ingredient •  Facial cleansing and moisturizing •  Murumuru seeds, used in hair care

Insight

For Brazilian women, beauty is all about

pleasure and sensuality.

(Source: IFOP, March 2015)



You want to know more about beauty consumers’ cultural behaviors?


PART 3 – GLOBAL INDUSTRY TRENDS

Contents

Multicultural Beauty (#Diversity)

Electronic Beauty (#Technology)

Online Beauty (#SocialMedia)

Iconic Beauty (#Celebrity)

Harder, Longer, Stronger Beauty (#Efficiency)

Youthful Beauty (#Youth)

Make-It-Mine Beauty (#Customization)

Made-to-measure Beauty (#Data)

Multitasking Beauty (#Convenience)

Express Beauty (#Time)

On-demand Beauty (#Immediacy)

Moveable Beauty (#Mobility)

Real Beauty (#Authenticity)

Natural Beauty (#Basics)

Green Beauty (#Sustainability)

Generous Beauty (#Cause)

At-Home Beauty (#Makers)

Non-typical Beauty (#Identity)

Preventive Beauty (#Health)

Edible Beauty (#Food)

Tonic Beauty (#Body)

Eccentric Beauty (#Experimentation)

Premiumized Beauty (#Value)

Sensory Beauty (#Experience)


#Web Online Beauty #SocialMedia

Facebook, Instagram, Tinder, and other social media platforms are today’s most widespread reflections of self-image. Curating an online image is the last step in the quest for beauty before an individual’s aesthetic identity is projected to the world. Indeed, some look better than others digitally - their online assets are more attractive, their profile picture, digital resume or Tinder profile are more sophisticated. Yet this individualization remains under the control of collective norms. Social media pressure forces male and female consumers alike to more closely examine their self-image and to present the most perfect version of themselves (in comparison to others) to the virtual world. The capture, post and publicize process happens in an instant, and the

pressure to look camera-ready and flawless means today’s beauty goals focus on image management and personal PR. As more consumers start to realize that everyone is in the business of image manipulation, some are starting to return to more natural and “genuine” identities. Social media is now widely accepted as a marketing component in business, especially amongst beauty brands, with many beauty companies hiring full-time social media coordinators. Moreover, beauty-related mobile phone applications are increasingly popular. While many act as an extension of e-commerce (allowing users to purchase goods and services), others blur the boundaries between beauty in real life and the digital landscape.


For the launch of its new Daisy fragrance, global fashion brand Marc Jacobs opened a dedicated pop-up store in Soho, New York, called the Daisy Marc Jacobs Tweet Shop. Consumers were invited to pay for their purchases not with money but tweets, Instagram photos and Facebook posts with the hashtag #MJDaisyChain, thus embracing "social currency.” Visitors were awarded with Marc Jacobs-branded gifts, from perfume and necklaces to even purses (the best Instagram photo of the day won a handbag). "Marc Jacobs is really active on social media and Daisy is one of the fragrance brands that triggers the highest engagement among fans," Lori Singer, group VP of global marketing for Coty Prestige (Marc Jacobs's fragrance licensor) said. "We have seen people creating drawings and stage mood shots featuring the iconic bottle, so engagement of the fans is already there.”

IMAGE Online Beauty #SocialMedia

United States February 2014

Credit: Mashable.com



United States March 2014

Sephora Beauty Board is a new visual social shopping platform that uses the same codes of Instagram and Pinterest. Customers can upload pictures of their own makeup looks—with the option to shop the look, as well as to "like" it or leave comments. This is a new way to shop for makeup looks, get hair inspirations, view beauty photos, and learn how to create new looks from top Sephora beauty products. In a way, the beauty brand offers online shoppers the opportunity to become beauty bloggers themselves.



United Kingdom January 2014

In January 2014, Dove (in the tenth year of its “Real Beauty” campaign) debuted its “Selfie” film campaign. The film chronicles a project in which young girls are invited to use selfies to challenge conventional beauty standards portrayed in traditional and social media. The girls’ selfies are displayed in a gallery, and, in a play on online “commenting,” visitors to the gallery leave notes on the photographs highlighting the subjects’ natural beauty. The film responds to Dove’s research that “55% of women believe social media plays a larger role in influencing the beauty conversation than traditional media.”


Moving away from the ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach and always craving cutting-edge technologies, beauty consumers want targeted ingredients aimed at specific concerns in a product that feels personal. Women no longer accept to pay for a product they will not use because it doesn't quite match their needs. Knowing this, personal care and makeup brands are investing in technology to create products, tools and processes that aim to provide results that are more specifically tailored to consumers’ beauty needs. “Smart” cosmetics are appealing to consumers craving the perfect look. Products tailored to individual beauty needs are convenient, deliver flawless results and enable experimentation and creativity. As a result, personalized beauty products

abound, whether tailored to skin tone, lifestyle or even DNA. From a retail perspective, consumers want more in the store - services, trials, retreats and personalized consultations all draw traffic and help result in a buy. A new breed of real-time “try-before-you-buy” concepts based on data and augmented reality (AR) are mushrooming and gaining considerable traction amongst beauty shoppers. Mobile apps and virtual mirrors are now able to deliver skin analysis and facial visualization, allowing men and women to virtually test a skincare or makeup product on their face before - or without - purchasing it, a new phenomenon that demonstrates how virtual retail concepts are filtering into the mainstream.


Made-to-measure Beauty #Data

United States August 2014

US brand bareMinerals is inviting female consumers to experience a new way to shop with the introduction of the brand’s first-ever Shade Shop. The concept is fairly innovative since the entire store is designed for shopping by shade, allowing women to browse suites of products curated for their exact skin tones. Located in New York's SoHo, bareMinerals’s award-winning complexion assortment is merchandised by shade family–light, medium, tan, dark and deep–in a streamlined, easy-to-navigate environment. The top level of the store will be used exclusively for special events, artistry workshops, parties and inspired conversations with the brand’s founder.



United Kingdom September 2014

GENEU markets itself as the world's first DNA personalized anti-aging skincare collection. Their U+ skincare system offers customers an in-store DNA test at their high street location at New Bond Street, London. Customers are invited to swab the inside their mouths and answer a brief questionnaire about their lifestyle choices. A unique U+ skin profile is set up in 30 minutes, detailing the individual’s exact predispositions to collagen breakdown and antioxidant protection levels, and how the skin reacts to damaging free radicals. This information is then used to tailor skincare and anti-aging products based on each customer's individual needs. Professor Christofer Toumazou, the brand’s founder, won the European Inventor of the Year award for his U+ microchip technology, which is used in the GENEU DNA profiling test.



France May 2014

L’Oréal announced last May the launch of their first connected beauty digital innovation. Makeup Genius enables consumers to test makeup products on a virtual mirror via their mobile phone or tablet. Consumers can now test a new makeup look or scan a product’s barcode in-store and instantly experience a futuristic “before & after” service. “By combining our knowledge of consumers and the science of colours with technologies for monitoring facial expressions, we have been able to calculate the best possible algorithm capable of producing an extremely realistic colour-rendering in real time using just an iPhone camera,” said Guive Balooch, Director of the Connected Beauty Incubator, L’Oréal Research & Innovation. This innovation will enable L’Oréal Paris to offer its customers an unprecedented beauty “e-routine.”



Beautiful Me is a new mobile app created by ModiFace, which applies patented big data technology and machine learning algorithms to conduct the most accurate skin analysis of users’ photos. Not only does the app instantly detects skin and facial features, such as skin tone and undertones, but it also measures changes in facial features, makeup, aging and hair. Beautiful Me can auto-download up to 500 of a user’s Facebook photos and, out of these, select and analyze 100 high-quality images. Based on these 100 photos, the app picks up skin pixels from eyes and lip and summarizes the user’s features in easy-to-read graphics, allowing users to see how their skin has changed over time. Beauty consumers can now better understand their own skin and find the best matching foundations to purchase.

Canada June 2014



On-demand Beauty #Immediacy

The spectacular success of car ridesharing service Uber has triggered an incredible popularity of on-demand services, giving birth to a whole new economy. The growing field of on-demand beauty apps and websites is putting at-home hair and makeup services at consumers’ fingertips, fulfilling a growing demand for immediate services. Consumers don’t want to waste time in that professionals and trainers come to them. What’s more, the Millennial generation is driven by the search for more fun and a desire to feel pampered. Why going to a beauty salon when you can get a manicure in staying at home? Although prices are higher than for traditional services, they provide consumers with a sense of comfort and a feeling of "luxury" while remaining relatively affordable

and accessible at the click of a button. "Having somebody come to you is the way celebrities do it," said Victoria Eisner, co-founder of Glamsquad, named for a term actresses often use for their beauty teams. "Why can't the average woman have that as well?" These new apps and websites offer blow-drying, hairstyling and professional makeup application, starting at $50 per service. Since its launch in March 2014, PRIV has experienced a revenue growth of about 63% each month. After they added massage services to their offerings in May 2014, the appointments have spread fairly evenly: hair 26%, makeup 20%, fitness 17%, and massage 13%. Most importantly, approximately half of the clientele have made return appointments so far.


IMAGE On-demand Beauty #Immediacy

United States January 2014

StyleBee is a new service that claims to be the “Uber for beauty.” This technology allows customers to request beauty, grooming and wellness services anytime and anywhere. This way, users are able to find and book trusted professionals on demand and in only a few minutes. The transaction is seamless – the payment is charged automatically from customers’ stored credit card at the end of the service.



United States May 2014

Uber Beauty—no relation to the car service—says about itself it “the Hampton’s only on-demand beauty service delivered to your door”. It dispatches stylists (and makeup artists) on scooters to provide blowouts as well as haircuts and even pricey Keratin treatments. The startup targets affluent consumers, charging anywhere from $90 to $850 for beauty and wellness services, which explains why the company is calling itself the Hamptons’ only on-demand beauty service delivered to people’s door.



United States September 2014

New York-based Namaste is a premium personal concierge that connects customers with a curated team of wellness professionals. Wellness programs consist of customized private or semi-private mat pilates and meditation classes, chair massage, personal trainers, yoga teachers and healers etc. Priced from $150 to $250 an hour, the service is delivered to any customer’s home, office or hotel and is available both for last-minute and advance bookings. Namaste also offers corporate wellness programs, which range from quick desk-yoga sessions to meditation seminars and massage therapists making office calls every Friday afternoon.




Glamsquad is an on-demand, in-home beauty service in NYC that sends hair stylists and makeup artists straight to customers’ homes. The app has been designed with a unique goal: “women should spend less time en route to looking fabulous.” The service aims at delivering prompt, professional style in the comfort of customers’ own homes, offices or anywhere else. It dispatches fully trained professional stylists to work their magic at affordable prices. Bookings are usually processed within an hour.


Non-typical Beauty #Identity

The beauty and cosmetics sector used to be criticized for its tendency to disregard “atypical” models, and therefore for its failure to create brand and shopping experiences that met everyone’s needs. However, things are changing: the tone is shifting from negative to positive as beauty brands find reasons to celebrate difference instead of attacking it. The current era is seeing the inclusion of older, plus-sized, disabled or transgendered models on catwalks, magazine covers and advertising campaigns - see Diane Keaton, Inès de la Fressange for the matures, Americans Crystal Renn and Ashley Graham, British singer Adele, American comedy actress Melissa McCarthy for the plus-sized etc. The momentum is extending beyond brands and consumers as modeling agencies, TV programs and reality shows. are casting new types of figures.

Age-wise, the coming decade will experience a backlash towards the anti-aging mindset - and market. The emerging Pro-Aging movement is about enjoying, embracing, respecting, and enhancing the things that come with age. Knowledge and experience will be celebrated and respected. Instead of the constant drive to appear younger, consumers will accept their actual age, and seek beauty brands that have an equally positive attitude. In terms of size, 64% of US women are considered overweight or obese, and 40% of French and British women are a size 16 or above, while retail consultancy Verdict predicts the plus-size market is set to grow by 28.6% between 2010 and 2015. Knowing this, brands have no choice but to align with their customers’ realities and make things “right” by, for instance, making plus-size women more visible with the use of curvy models.


IMAGE Non-typical Beauty #Identity


The US’s most famous twins Mary-Kate and Ashley Olsen cast mature models- aged 40-70 - to star in the Pre-fall 2014 lookbook for their high-end clothing label, The Row. This innovative and daring move shows that not only do the twins aim at being ahead of the fashion industry, but it also emphasizes the classical side of the collection and the fact that their clothes are universal and for all ages. The Olsens kept the color palette minimal, using shades of grey, white and beige.



Netherlands February 2014

Debbie van der Putten is an amputated Dutch model who was featured in Angel Sinclair’s “Models for Diversity” campaign, which promoted models that challenge convention, during the 2012 Summer Paralympics in London. Early this year, she was also one of the stars of top Dutch department store De Bijenkorf’s Spring campaign.




Gender norms and boundaries are being broken as Lea T, Brazilian model and current muse - and former assistant - of Givenchy’s creative director Riccardo Tisci, is about to become the first transgender woman to score such a big-name beauty deal. Starting January 2015, the transgender model and advocate will be the face of Redken’s Chromatics hair color campaign, showcasing the brand’s belief in the beauty of individuality. “Lea T is a true pioneer for beauty,” says Leslie Marino, general manager of Redken US. "She shares Redken’s vision of global beauty, and has a unique sense of self and a beauty that is undeniably her own.”




Department store Barneys New York launched its Spring 2014 campaign “Brothers, Sisters, Sons and Daughters” featuring seventeen ordinary young men and women who share a common characteristic: they are all transgender individuals. These modern models have been photographed and filmed surrounded by family, friends, and loved ones. Plus, each model was interviewed to share their diverse experiences and unique personal stories. Photos and interviews were released on the brand’s website and in a print catalog.



!e Forecast // Food | January 2015

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PART 4 – THE FUTURE OF BEAUTY

Augmented beauty

Thanks to recent scientific advancements, we are now on the cusp of a second wave of body-modification. Nanotechnology may give us contact lens cameras and robots small enough to patrol our bloodstreams. Genetic modification could tweak us to be smarter and more eco-friendly, while neural interfaces might allow us to plug our brains directly into the web. “The line between therapy and enhancement is a blurry one. There seems to be no clear distinction between existing accepted practices such as cosmetic surgery, the prescription of anti-depressants and ADHD medication and emerging ones such as genetic modification, nanotechnology and nootropics.” said Olivia Solon from WIRED.

With recent spectacular advances in science and technology, it is becoming easier and more affordable to artificially temper physical appearance in order to reach fantasized beauty ideals. Today, a growing number of people are opting for artificially enhanced bodies through both soft and hard procedures. Consumers are essentially driven by self-expression, convention breaking, or big thrills. Increasingly acceptable and accepted, these post-human transformations reveal a will to transcend reality, to go beyond nature and transform physical appearance or, even augment human performance. Humans have long augmented their bodies with eyeglasses, clothing, and prosthetics.


Plastic surgery

There has been a dramatic increase in the popularity of cosmetic surgery in countries around the world with its promises of wrinkle-free skin and youthful looks. •  South Koreans are leading the trend with 0.65 plastic procedures per 1,000 people in 2012 (The Economist).

•  313,327 breast augmentations and 137,233 breast lifts were performed in the US in 2013 (American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery).

•  More than 50,000 cosmetic surgery procedures were performed in the UK in 2013 (British Association of Aesthetic Plastic Surgeons).

•  Dubai is racing ahead to dominate the Middle East’s plastic surgery market with plans to attract half a million medical tourists by 2020, generating revenues of US$710 million (GlobalNews.ca).

•  Chinese consumers, traditionally holding conservative views of physical beauty, are increasingly travelling to South Korea for cheap deals on treatments while new clinics have opened within mainland China.

The Miss Korea 2013 contestants were mocked by the media for looking so similar – with suggestions that some had had plastic surgery.


Future beauty icons

Viktoria Modesta Moskalova British singer and model

Aimee Mullins Amputated model

Grace Mandeville British actress


Natasha Vita-More Transhumanism philosopher

To go further…

A special edition exploring the future of beauty:

•  Body hacking •  Transhumanism •  Eugenism •  Super powers •  Etc.



!e Forecast // Food | January 2015

You want to know more about the future of beauty?

Thank you Contact:

Roxane Baché, Director of Trends & Insights [email protected]

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The Forecast // Beauty