The Federal Programme for Heating ... - energy-evaluation.org€¦ · theory-based evaluation methods, market and stakeholder analysis and a barrier analysis. The initial results

2020EnergyEvaluationEuropeConference—London,UK 1

TheFederalProgrammeforHeatingSystemsOptimisationinGermany–evaluationmethodsandintermediateresults

ChristinaReineck,ArepoConsult,Albrechtstraße22,10117Berlin,Germany,reineck@arepo-

consult.comFelixSuerkemper,WuppertalInstituteforClimate,EnvironmentandEnergy.Döppersberg19,42103

Wuppertal,GermanyFlorinVondung,WuppertalInstituteforClimate,EnvironmentandEnergy.Döppersberg19,42103

Wuppertal,GermanyStefanThomas,WuppertalInstituteforClimate,EnvironmentandEnergy.Döppersberg19,42103

Wuppertal,GermanyChristineWörlen,ArepoConsult,Albrechtstraße22,10117Berlin,Germany

ABSTRACT

In 2016, the German government established the “Directive Governing the Promotion of HeatingOptimisation throughHighlyEfficientPumpsandHydraulicBalancing”:aprogrammegiving financial supportfor heating optimisation measures in buildings. It is open to private building owners, organisations,municipalitiesandbusinesses.Theoverallaimof theprogramme is to increaseenergyefficiencyandreduceCO2emissionsinthebuildingssector.

This paper describes the results of an evaluation of the programme for the years 2016 to 2020. Itpresents the initial results, the evaluation approach and methodology. This covers: the programme’sachievementofimplementationtargets,itseffectivenessandcost-effectiveness.Theevaluationmakesuseoftheory-basedevaluationmethods,marketandstakeholderanalysisandabarrieranalysis.

The initial results of the evaluation suggest that the support programme can be considered veryefficient. Theprogramme is triggering investments andbehaviour change that saveenergy and reduceGHGemissions that are cost-effective for programmebeneficiaries and society. Theprogramme’s structure limitsfree-ridereffectpaymentsbutalsoadministrativeredtape.

Introduction

Background

In 2016, the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) established the“Directive Governing the Promotion of Heating Optimisation through Highly Efficient Pumps and HydraulicBalancing” (HZO-programme). The programme provides subsidies to building-owners to replace their oldheating system circulators andwarmwater circulation pumpswith highly efficient pumps and to carry outhydraulic optimisation of heating systems. These are one-off subsidies of 30% of the net investment costswhich includesprofessional installation andmaterial costs (max. 25,000europer location) (BAFA.N.d.). Thetargetgroupofthesubsidy isbroadinscope:privatebuildingownersaswellasorganisations,municipalitiesandcompaniesarealleligibletoapply.Theoverallaimoftheprogrammeistoincreaseenergyefficiencyandreduce CO2 emissions in the buildings sector. The programme thus supports the achievement of Germany'ssectoraltargetofanalmostclimateneutralbuildingstockby2050(BMWi2016a).


Arepo Consult in partnershipwith theWuppertal Institute have been commissioned by the FederalEnergy Efficiency Center (BfEE) to carry out a formative and summative ex-post evaluation of the directiveaccording to the requirements of the Federal Budget Code (BHO § 7)1 (BMJV 2019) for the programmedurationfrom2016to2020.Thispaperpresentstheinitialresultsoftheevaluation(themainresultsachievedduringthefirstthreeprogrammeyears)aswellastheevaluationapproachandmethodology.

Scopeofthepaper

Thecontentof thepaper is structuredas follows:The firstsectiongivesanoverviewof theaimandapproach of the evaluation. This includes its objectives, the development of the programme theory, mainindicatorsandmethodsappliedaswellasthemaindatacollectionmethods.Thesecondsectionthenpresentsthemethodological approach inmore detail aswell as the evaluation results to the end of June 2019. ThesectionisstructuredintothreesectionsinaccordancewiththeFederalBudgetCode´sevaluationcriteria:theachievementofprogrammetargets(e.g.numberof(approved)applications,subsidiesprovided,etc.), impactevaluation(withregardtofinalenergysavingsandCO2reductionadjustedforfree-ridereffectsandaccordingto target group and geographic distribution) and cost-effectiveness (in terms of administration costs,programme-inducedinvestments,CO2emissionreductionsachievedandcost-effectivenessfromasocietalandinvestor perspective). The results are derived by using a “Theory of No Change” (TONC) (Wörlen 2011)approach: a barrier analysis identifies the main restraints towards a more effective outcome. The paperconcludeswith a reflection on the evaluation implementation challenges and the lessons learned from thisprocessleadingoverintofinalsummarisingthoughtsontheevaluation.

Aimandapproachoftheevaluation

Evaluationscopeandobjectives

Theoverallaimoftheformativeandsummativeex-postevaluationoftheHZO-programmeistoassessthe programme for the duration from 2016 to 2020 according to three criteria: programme achievements,impacts and cost-effectiveness. The assessment of ‘programme achievements’ considers the level of energysavingsandCO2reductionsachievedbythesupportedmeasures.Theimpactevaluationreviewstheinteractionbetween the subsidised actions and the achievementof objectives and is guidedby three keyquestions: (i)whether the programme was suitable to induce additional energy savings and CO2 reductions; (ii) whetherthere isacausal relationshipbetweensubsidisedactionsandobservedoutcome;and (iii)whether thereareunintentional positive or negative effects influencing the programme achievements. The evaluation of theprogramme’s cost-effectiveness investigates the relationship between programme achievements and fundsused;itconsiderswhetherthemeasurewascost-efficientwithrespecttoitsachievementsandexaminesthecost-effectivenessoftheprogrammes´execution.Italsoconsidersthebarrierstoprogrammeeffectiveness.

Programmetheory

In order to operationalise the evaluation objectives, the evaluation team developed a programmetheorytodescribethecause-effect-chainthroughwhichtheprogrammeworksfrominputtooutput,outcomeandlonger-termimpactlevel.

The programme theory (cf. Figure 1) assumes that subsidies aimed at reducing energy consumptiontriggerefficiencymeasuresnotonlydirectly,amongthesubsidy-recipients,butalso-beyondtheprogramme-

1TheFederalBudgetCode(BHO§7)isstandardforallfundingprogrammeevaluationsoftheGermanFederalMinistryforEconomicAffairsandEnergy.


by triggering further market development. It represents the interaction of the activities and the resultingeffectsamongthemostrelevantactorsfortheimplementationoftheprogramme.Theseactorsare:decision-makers (i.e. programme beneficiaries), the BMWi and the Federal Office for Economic Affairs and ExportControl(BAFA),aswellasheating,ventilationandairconditioning(HVAC)contractors.Theprogrammetheoryalso considers the way that HZO interacts with other subsidy programmes. The causal chain begins withdecision-makersbeingbothawareof theproblemof inefficientheating systemsandmotivated toacton it,which then translates into the planning of improvement measures. It is assumed that decision-makers areeither already aware and motivated and thus entering an information search process in which they comeacrosstheHZOprogrammeorawarenessandmotivationistriggeredbytheHZOprogrammespublicrelationswork across the subsidyprogramme.However, there are alsoother information channels: in caseof urgentmeasures, e.g. a broken heating valve or a pipe break, HVAC contractors could draw the decision-makers'attentiontothemeasuresthattheHZO-programmesupportsinthelongerterm.WhentheHZO-programmeisnoticed,thedecision-makersregisterontheBAFAwebsiteandsubmitasubsidyapplicationtoBAFA.BAFAwillprocess this application and approve or reject it. Energy savings will be achieved upon completion of themeasureeitherfromsavedthermalenergy(duetohydraulicbalancingandaccompanyingmeasures)and/orfromsavedelectricityforpumpoperation.

Figure1.ProgrammeTheory.Source:owngraph.

Mainindicatorsevaluatedandmethodsapplied

Onthebasisoftheevaluationquestionsoftheevaluationmandateandtheprogrammetheoryseveralcause-effect hypotheses (such as `the subsidy triggers further efficiencymeasures´)were derived describingthedifferent steps of the causal chain of the programme. These evaluationquestions andhypothesesweretestedwiththehelpof indicators.Forthedataanalysisandverificationofhypothesesamixofmethodswasused. These include calculations based on standard indicators frequently used in energy evaluations (e.g.

othersupportprogrammes

experienceswithothersupportprogrammes

announce-mentviavariouschannels

àothersupportprogrammes

othersupportprogrammes

â

craftsmen

targetscustomers/recommendsmeasures

à

recommendsHZO-/other/nosupportprogramme

acceptsorder

recommendspumpmodell/implementationofmeasures

marketdevelopmentpumpex-change2m/a

â â â â â

à

decisionmotivationor

problemawareness

à(searchingforinformation) à

lookingforcraftsmenand

supportprogrammes

àprofessional

implementationofmeasures

àrealisationofenergysavings

àß

executionoffurther

measures

realisationofCO2-savings

á â â

learnsaboutHZO-

programme

learnsaboutHZO-

programmeà

registrationonBAFAwebsite à application à receivessupport

uptakeofothersupportprogrammes

á â â á â

BAFA àAnnounce-ment à

designofregistrationform

approval/decline à outpayment

approval/decline

BMWi policyintroduction

Announce-ment

implemen-tationofmeasures

decisionmakers

interactionwithBAFA


average heated area; energy source mix of heating energy), theory based qualitative data collection andanalyses(e.g. focusgroupsonprogrammebarriersbasedontheTheoryofNoChange),calculationbasedonquantitative data collection and testing hypothesis based on indicators. The methodological approachesappliedaredescribedindetailintherespectivefollowingsections,presentingtheevaluationresults.

The indicators were clustered in eight thematic groups: 1) public relations / awareness of theprogramme, 2) number of registrations, 3) reaching the target groups, 4) impact including CO2 reductionachieved, 5) multiplier effect, 6) economic effects, 7) implementation efficiency and 8) effectiveness ofsubsidies provided. At the time of this paper, the evaluation was based on 29 indicators. These includeamongst others: number of website visitors, awareness of the programme among private building owners,numberofregistrations,shareofsubsidiespertargetgroup,energysavings (electricity/heat),CO2emissionreduction,shareofadministrativeexpensesperapplicationandlastlyinducedinvestments.

Datasources

Inorder to test thehypothesesdeveloped, the followingprimaryand secondarydata collectionandanalysiswasconducted(datesinparenthesesindicatetheyearthedatawascollectedandanalysed):

• Acomprehensiveliteraturereview(i.e.scientificpapersandgreyliterature,governmentaldocuments,

comparable evaluations), among other things, as a basis for the market analysis and for thedeterminationofinputvariablesofcalculations(2017),

• Thepreparationofaninitialmarketanalysisin2017andamorein-depthanalysisin2018,• Thesemi-annualevaluationoftheprogrammestatistics(microdata)overtime(2017–now),• InterviewswithHVACcontractors,chimneysweepersandtherealestateindustry(June2017toApril

2019),• Interviewswithotherkeystakeholdersoftheprogramme(June2017toApril2019),• AnannualdebriefingwithBAFA(withaqueryonadministrativecosts)andBMWi(2017–now),• Theanalysisofothersupportprogrammes(firsttimein2017withupdatein2018),• Three focus groups with private building owners from different regions of Germany who have not

takenadvantageoftheHZO-programme,aspartofthebarrieranalysis(March2018),• Anonlinesurveyoftherecipientsofsubsidies(sentto66,748e-mailaddresses,responserate21%or

13,911respondents)(2018),• Anonlinesurveyofallpersonsregisteredatthattime(sentto31,836emailaddresses,responserate

9%)(2018).Thedatacollectionforthispaperwaspartlyon-goingandpartlyatcertainpointsintimebetweenJune

2017andJanuary2020.

Intermediateevaluationresults

Programmeachievements

Theapplicationprocedureforsubsidiesisatwo-stepprocess.First,applicantsneedtoregisterwithinthe programme databasebefore heating optimisationmeasures are implemented. Afterwards there is a sixmonthswindowinwhichmeasurescanbeimplementedandsubsidyapplicationssubmitted.Thisproceedingaimstoreducefreeriding.Toapplyforsubsidies,invoiceshavetobesubmittedviatheonlineportal.


Until June 2019, 180,545 subsidy applications had been submitted of which 179,069 had beenprocessed.2Outoftheseprocessedapplications,168,633or94%hadbeenapprovedand10,436or6%hadbeen rejected. This suggests a well-designed application procedure, in which a majority of applicantsapparentlyhadlittleproblemstounderstandandadheretotheformalprogrammerequirements.Thishasalsobeencorroboratedbytheresultsoftheprogrammeusersurvey.

The statistics on programme use over time show spikes in registrations and applicationswithin theheatingperiods(i.e.SeptembertoMarch)(cf.Figure2)whichsuggestsincreasedutilizationoftheprogrammeontheoccasionofpumpfailure.This isaplausibleassumption,consideringthatfewprivatebuildingowners(which represent themajority of applicants) would deliberately suffer the inconvenience of heating systemdisruptionduringthistimeoftheyear.

Figure2.Monthlynumbersofregistrationsandapplicationsincludingtheirstatus(approved,rejected,pendingdecision)betweenAugust2016andJune2019.Source:owngraphbasedontheprogrammestatistics.

Basedonapprovedapplications,HZOhadsupported394,620energyefficiencymeasuresbyJune2019.These consisted of 249,288 pump replacements (207,300 glandless circulation pumps, 41,178 warm watercirculation pumps and 810 dry running circulation pumps), 50,367 hydraulic balancing and 94,965

2 Allresultsshowninthissectionarebasedontheanalysisoftheprogrammestatistics.

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Aug'16

Sep'16

Oct'16

Nov'16

Dec'16

Jan'17

Feb'17

Mar'17

Apr'17

May'17

Jun'17

Jul'17

Aug'17

Sep'17

Oct'17

Nov'17

Dec'17

Jan'18

Feb'18

Mar'18

Apr'18

May'18

Jun'18

Jul'18

Aug'18

Sep'18

Oct'18

Nov'18

Dec'18

Jan'19

Feb'19

Mar'19

Apr'19

May'19

Jun'19

Num

ber


accompanying measures.3 To support these measures, subsidies amounting to almost 79.9 m euro wereprovidedtotheapplicants.4

Lookingat thedistributionofapprovedapplicationsacross theprogrammetargetgroupsshowsthatprivatebuildingownersaccountforthemajorshareofthe168,633successfulapplications(84%),followedbybusinessesand freelancers (7%)andhomeowners’ associationsandpropertymanagement companies (6%)(cf.Figure3).Thisisinlinewiththeprogrammerationale,whichdefinedprivatebuildingownersasthecentraltargetgroupforheatingoptimisationmeasures.Otherapplicantgroups(includingpublicinstitutionsaswellasassociationsandfoundations)onlysubmittedasmallshareoftheapprovedapplications(3%).Thedistributionof subsidies shows a corresponding pattern although the shares deviate due to cost differences of therespectively implementedmeasures.5Accordingly,privatebuildingowners - thoughstill leadingtheranking-received a comparatively lower shareof total paid subsidies (65%), followedbyenterprises and freelancers(18%),homeowners’associationsandpropertymanagementcompanies(10%)andothertargetgroups(7%)(cf.Figure3).

Figure3.Distributionofapprovedapplicationsandprovidedsubsidiesacrossprogramme targetgroups inabsoluteandrelativeterms.Source:owngraphbasedontheprogrammestatistics.

The geographical distribution of approved applications shows that a majority (105,200 or 62%)originatesfromthepopulousstatesofBavaria,NorthRhine-WestphaliaandBaden-Wuerttemberginsouthernand western Germany, in which correspondingly also the majority of subsidised measures have beenimplemented.Lowestnumbersofapprovedapplicationswere found for thecity statesofHamburg,BremenandBerlinaswellasthenorth-easternstateofMecklenburg-Vorpommern.Whensetintoproportionwiththe

3 Accompanyingmeasuresareonlysubsidisedincombinationwithhydraulicbalancingandcompriseinstallationofmeasuringandcontroltechnologyuserinterfaces,bufferstorage,sectioningvalves,technologyforflowratecontrolandthermostaticvalves.4 Theextenttowhichpredefinedtargets(ofHZO)wereachievedarenotpresentedinthispaperbecausetheydonotprovidemeaningfulinsights.Themarketanalysiscarriedoutatthestartoftheprojecthasshownthatthetargetssetinthedirectivearebasedontheassumptionsofatoolargereferencemarketandatoohighstockof inefficientpumpseligibleforprogrammesupport(e.g.substantialnumbersofpumpsinthestockareintegratedintotheboilersandcannotbe replaced in a simplemanner, and thus also not be addressed by the programme). The unrealistic high programmetargetscanthereforenotbeachieved.5 Whileprivatebuildingownersusuallyinstalloneorfewsmallscaleglandlesscirculationpumpsorwarmwatercirculationpumps,applicantsfromdifferenttargetgroupsoperatelargerfacilitiesandthusoftenapplyforsupportforthepurchaseandinstallationsofmultipleand/orlargerscalepumps,whichtranslatesintohighersubsidiesperapplication.Thesameappliesforotherheatingoptimisationmeasures(e.g.hydraulicbalancing),whosecostscorrelatewiththesizeoftheheatedfloorarea.Respectivedifferencesacrosstargetgroupshavebeencollectedinthebeneficiarysurvey(n=13,911)andfoundonaveragetorangebetweenfactor3to10(ca.196m2forprivatebuildingownersandca.1,961m2forpublicinstitutions).

52,329,361

142,047

14,178,944

10,971

7,829,026

10,880

5,558,447

4,735

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Providedsubsidiesin€(Total:79,895,778)

ApprovedapplicaDons(Total:168,633)

Privatebuildingowners Enterprisesandfreelancers Homeowners'associaDons/Propertymanagementcompanies Others


numberofhouseholds living in thedifferent states, theorderat theupperandbottomtail slightly changes.Withoutin-depthinquiryintothereasonsofthisgeographicaldistribution,itisplausibletoassumedisposablehousehold incomes, general attitudes towards subsidy programmes, the amount of nearby energy adviceoffers (e.g. via regionalenergyagencies), availabilityofHVACcontractorsandhomeownership structures inthe different states to be additional factors besides absolute household numbers. For instance, homeownershipratesinthosestateswiththelowestabsoluteandrelativenumbersofapplicationsarewith37.8%(Bremen),23.9%(Hamburg)und17.4%(Berlin)partlywellbelowthenationalaverage(46.5%).6

Impactevaluation

Based upon a bottom-up calculation of theoretical savings resulting from the implementation ofsupportedmeasures,theprogrammehasbeenestimatedtodeliveryearlynetfinalenergysavingsof147.32GWh(gross307.15GWh)(cf.Figure4).Totalfinalenergysavingsconsistofheatenergysavingsattributedtohydraulicbalancing(ca.61%oftotalsavings)aswellaselectricitysavingsduetothereplacementofinefficientpumps(ca.39%).Inordertocalculatetherespectivefinalenergysavings,differentmethodologicalapproacheswere applied. With regard to heating energy savings, the number of hydraulic balancing measures wasmultipliedwithanassumed10kWhfinalenergysavingperm2andyear(Wolffetal.2014)andtheweightedaverage heated floor area across all applications (342 m2) and adjusted for free-rider effect (see followingsection). In order to determine the weighted average heated floor area, the results of a survey amongprogrammebeneficiariescomprisingtheaverageheatedfloorareapertargetgroupaswellasthenumberofapproved applications comprising hydraulic balancing per target group from the programme statistics havebeenused(foranoverviewseeTable1).

Table1:Inputfactorstodeterminetheenergysavingsattributedtohydraulicbalancing

Targetgroup

Privatebuildingowners

Homeowners’associationsandpropertymanagementcompanies

Enterprisesand

freelancersPublic

institutions*

Associationsand

Foundations AllØheatedfloorarea(inm2) 196.3 672 1,843.9 1,960.7 1,113.4 3421Numberofapprovedapplications(byJune2019) n=44,528 n=1,834 n=2,614 n=1,048 n=343 n=50,367

1Weightedaverageacrossalltargetgroups.*DefinitionofPublicinstitutions:municipalities,publiccorporations,specialpurposeassociationsandlocaladministrationunion.Source:Programmestatisticsandbeneficiarysurvey(n=13,911).

Inordertocalculatetheelectricitysavedbyreplacinginefficientpumps,wecalculatedthedifferencebetweentheaverageconsumptionofefficientpumpseligibleforprogrammesupportandthatoftheexistingstock by performance class. We did this by assuming yearly operating hours of 5,000hours for glandlesscirculationpumps,5,840hoursforwarmwatercirculationpumpsand6,500hoursfordryrunningcirculationpumps.Weightedaveragefinalenergysavingswerecalculatedperpumptype,differentiatedintosmallpumps(i.e. glandless circulation and warm water circulation pumpsà 537kWh) and big pumps (i.e. dry runningcirculation pumps à 1,631kWh). This figure was, multiplied with the number of subsidised pumps andadjustedforfree-ridereffect.Toaccountfortheadditionalsavingeffectofanapplicantwithabrokenpumpchoosing a very efficient pump over one with an Eco-design standard due to the subsidy offer, the small

6 Figuresarefor2018,cf.https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Wohnen/_Grafik/_Interaktiv/eigentuemerquote.html

Florin Vondung� 16.6.2020 13:53Gelöscht: Table1


differencebetween the respective average consumption levels (small pumps: 20kWh;big pumps: 435kWh)hasbeenmultipliedwiththenumberoffree-ridereffectcasesandaddedtotheoverallprogrammeresult.

Figure4.Calculatedyearlygrossandnet finalenergysavingsdisaggregatedbyheatenergyandelectricitybyhalfyear.Source:owngraphbasedontheprogrammestatistics.

Overall,theprogrammesofarhassupportedthereplacementof248,478smalland810bigpumpsaswellas50,367hydraulicbalancinginterventions.IntermsofCO2reductions,theabove-mentionedfinalenergysavingstranslateinto57,587tCO2savingsperyear.Anoverviewofthedistributiontothedifferentmeasuresispresented inFigure5.To transform finalenergy savings intoCO2 reductions,differentemission factorshavebeenusedforelectricityandheatingenergy.Fortheformer,theofficialemissionfactorfortheGermanpowermix(600gCO2/kWh)hasbeenused.Fortheheatingenergy,anaverageweightedemissionfactorhasbeencalculated (256gCO2 / kWh)basedon thedistributionofheating systemsamongbeneficiaries (as collectedwithinthesurvey)andthecorrespondingemissionfactorsassummarisedbySchüweretal.(2015).

Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net2ndhalf2016 1sthalf2017 2ndhalf2017 1sthalf2018 2ndhalf2018 1sthalf2019 Total

Total 21.56 10.24 52.74 25.01 64.30 30.96 55.75 26.70 60.78 29.38 52.03 25.03 307.15 147.32Heatenergysavings 11.13 5.79 26.57 13.82 37.21 19.35 30.88 16.06 36.49 18.97 30.02 15.61 172.30 89.60Electricitysavings 10.43 4.46 26.17 11.19 27.09 11.61 24.87 10.64 24.29 10.40 22.01 9.42 134.85 57.73

21.5610.24

52.74

25.01

64.30

30.9655.75

26.70

60.78

29.3852.03

25.03

307.15

147.32

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

Fina

lene

rgysavingsinGW

h/a

Electricitysavings Heatenergysavings


Figure5.NumberofsupportedmeasuresbytypeandassociatedCO2reductionsbyJune2019.Source:owngraphbasedontheprogrammestatistics.

Theextenttowhichpredefinedtargets(ofHZO)wereachievedarenotpresentedinthispaperbecausetheydonotprovidemeaningfulinsights.Themarketanalysiscarriedoutatthestartoftheprojecthasshownthatthetargetsset inthedirectivearebasedontheassumptionsofatoo largereferencemarketandatoohighstockofinefficientpumpseligibleforprogrammesupport(e.g.substantialnumbersofpumpsinthestockareintegratedintotheboilersandcannotbereplacedinasimplemanner,andthusalsonotbeaddressedbytheprogramme).Theunrealistichighprogrammetargetscanthereforenotbeachieved.

CausalityAnalysis

In order to determine the additionality of the HZO-programme, again the results of the beneficiarysurveywereused.Within the survey, dataon the typesofmeasures (i.e. heatingpump replacement,warmwater circulation pump replacement, hydraulic balancing or accompanying measures) implemented by therespondents was collected. To identify whether these measures were attributable to the programme,beneficiarieswereasked:

Wouldyouhavealsoimplementedthemeasure(s)withoutthesubsidy?

Yes.Yes,butatalaterpointintime.

248,478

810

50,367

299,655

34,191

447

22,741

57,378

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

SmallPumps BigPumps Hydraulicbalancing Total

CO2-redu

ction(tp.a.)

Num

ber

Number

CO₂emissionreductionintCO₂p.a.

Smallpumps: Glandlesscirculationpumps&warmwatercirculation pumps

Bigpumps: Dryrunningcirculationpumps


Yes,butonlyapartofthemeasures.No.Don’tknow/NoanswerEach response type was then coded. Those answering “No” were coded as having implemented

measures thatwere fullyattributable to theprogramme.Thoseanswering“Yes”weremarkedascreatingafree-rider effect. Respondents answering “Yes, but at a later point in time” were considered to bedemonstrativeoftheprogramme’spulleffect(andtheeffectsalsoattributabletotheprogramme).Toassesshow“Yes,butonlyapartofthemeasures”shouldbecoded,afollowupquestionwasaskedastowhichofthemeasures would not have been implemented without the subsidy. While this approach holds the risk ofintroducingbiasviaself-reporting(e.g.throughsocialdesirabilitybias),thesubjectissufficientlyimpersonaltoassume no significant bias. With regard to pump replacements, 5,507 out of 13,608 respondents wereconsideredtohaveimplementedmeasuresduetotheprogramme(“No”n=1,893;“Yes,butatalaterpointintime.” n=3,104 and “Yes, but only a part of the measures.” n=510). Accordingly, a significant part of theprogrammeimpactcanbeattributedtoitspulleffect.Withregardtohydraulicbalancingmeasures,1,739outof3,375 respondentswereconsidered tohave implementedmeasuresdue to theprogramme (“No”n=465;“Yes,butatalaterpointintime.”n=730and“Yes,butonlyapartofthemeasures.”n=544).Thisagainpointstoapulleffectaswellastotheprogrammeprovidingadecisiveincentivetoimplementhydraulicbalancinginadditiontopumpreplacements.

In summary, causality factors of 0.40 for pump replacements and 0.52 for hydraulic balancingweredetermined. While these in combination with the programme utilization patterns (see under ProgrammeAchievements)underlinethecreationofsignificantfree-ridereffect,theseareinlinewiththeexpectationsattheoutsetoftheprogrammeset-up.

Barrieranalysis

Atvariouspoints in thecause-effect-chain theremaybeobstacles thatprevent theHZO-programmeachieving its intended effect. To validate the barriers identified in the literature review, the evaluatorsconsultedthreesetsofstakeholderswhodidnotbenefitfrom,orotherwisecouldprovideinformationonhowheating optimisations could happen without HZO subsidies: interviews were carried out with chimneysweepers,HVACcontractorsandotherrelevantstakeholders;threefocusgroupswithhomeownersthathavenotutilizedtheHZO-programmeyetwereconducted;andasurveyofprivatebuildingownersthatregisteredfortheprogramme,butdidnotsubmitanapplicationwasconducted.Abarrieranalysiswasundertakenbasedonhypothesesdevelopedusingthe`TheoryofNoChange´(TONC)(Wörlen2011).

The TONC assumes that there are four relevant stakeholder groups: potential programmebeneficiaries, supply chainactors (includingHVACcontractors), local financiers,andpolitical /administrativedecision-makers includingsubsidyprogrammes, regulationsand laws(policymakers).These stakeholdersarefaced with six types of barriers: 1) lack of awareness; 2) lack of interest / motivation; 3) lack of practicalknowledge; 4) lack of access to technology / HVAC contractors; 5) lack of profitability and 6) lack ofaffordability.Havingthisinmind,thebarriersidentifiedbytheevaluationteamcanbeclusteredintotwomaincategories:1)barriersthathampertheimplementationoftheeligiblemeasuresoftheHZO-programmeand2)barriershamperingtheutilizationoftheHZO-programmeitself.

ThemostsignificantbarrierfortheimplementationofheatingoptimisationmeasuresinGermanyisalack of HVAC contractor availability / interest in implementing them. The current capacity constraints andworkloadwithintheHVACcontractorsinGermanyisveryhighresultinginlittleinterestinneworderswithlowmargins. It is precisely these low-threshold, cost-effective efficiency measures (hydraulic balancing, pumpreplacement)thattheHZOprogrammefocusesoninordertomotivatelargerinvestmentsbeyondthescopeofthe programme.HVAC contractors often fail to informprivate building owners about the possibility of low-


investmentmeasures.WhenaskedaboutthereasonswhytheyhadnotcarriedoutameasureafterregisteringontheBAFAwebsite,21%ofthe(potential)programmebeneficiariesstatedthattheyhadnotfoundaHVACcontractor to carry out the measure. Both private building owners and HVAC contractors conveyed theimpression ofmutual expectations and responsibility that heating optimisationmeasures had to be activelyrequestedandoffered.Whiletheprivatebuildingowners justifiedthe lackof implementationbysayingthatthe HVAC contractors had not adequately informed them about energy savings potential of heatingoptimisation,theyontheotherhandcomplainedthattheprivatebuildingownerswerenotinterestedinsuchinformation.Apartfromthis,boththeHVACcontractorsthemselvesandotherintervieweesstatedthatmanyHVACworkersarenotsufficientlyqualifiedtocarryouthydraulicbalancing.Themeasureisbasicallyunpopularin the professional field. About half the (potential) programme beneficiaries who registered with the HZO-programmebutultimatelydidnotcarryoutameasureconsidered themeasure tooexpensiveor technicallyimpossibletoimplementwiththeexistingheatingsystem.Theprofitabilityofthepumpreplacementwasnotquestioned. However, the hydraulic balancing in existing buildings was often, without a valid data basis,considereduneconomical,evenforfinalcustomersowningtheirheatingsystem.Thiswasjustifiedbytheeffortinvolved where a large number of valves would have to be replaced and sometimes a complete pipe planwouldhavetobedrawnup.

Theavailabilityoffinancialresourcesplayedasubordinateroleintheeyesofmostinterviewees.Onlygroupswithverylowdisposableincome,suchaspensioners,werenotconsideredabletoraisethenecessaryfinancialresourcesbyotherstakeholders.

Beyond general obstacles to the implementation of heating optimisation measures, there areadditionalobstaclestotheuseofsubsidiesingeneralandtheHZO-programmeinparticular.Onthebasisofarepresentative survey, interviews with experts and several focus groups with private building owners, theevaluatorsfoundthatawarenessoftheHZO-programmewas low.All thesurveysonthetopic`awarenessofsubsidy programmes for heating systems´ showed that the households surveyed often have difficulties indifferentiating between different subsidy programmes and operating entities. For example, the HZO-programmewasonlyoccasionallyperceivedasaseparateprogrammefromtheoffersoftheKreditanstaltfürWiederaufbau (KfW). The investigation of several other public subsidy programmes showed that the HZO-programmeoffersthebestsupportforalmostalltargetgroups.However,theHZO-programmeisnotthemostattractiveprogramme for largerormorecomplexmeasures.For thesecases theKfW-programme includesanumber of financial incentives that affect the entire heating system that are not included in the HZO-programme. For the real estate industry and other target groups with more complex buildings, KfW-programme support may therefore be more appropriate if they wish to receive financial incentives foradvisory, planning and construction support services. However, the HZO-programme also loses potentialapplicantstoKfW-programmesduetootherreasons.KfW,forinstance,withagenerallylongertraditioninthefield of building refurbishment, is the first point of contact formany of the target groupswhen looking forfinancial support. TheHZO-programmealso suffers from the fact that themultipliers are alsomore familiarwithKfW-programmesandarethusmorelikelytorecommendthese.

Apart from the lower awareness of the BAFA-programmes compared to the KfW-programmes ingeneral, therearesignificantprejudicesaboutthesupposedlyhighbureaucraticeffort involved insubsidies-whichare,however,unjustifiedinrelationtotheHZO-programme:98%ofthesubsidyrecipientsstatedthattheyweresatisfiedwiththeapplicationprocedureandwouldrecommendittoothers.

Resultsofcost-effectivenessevaluation

Fiveeconomic indicatorswereanalysed in thisprogrammeevaluation:1)programmeadministrationcosts to assess the implementationefficiency; 2) programme induced investments / demandeffect; 3) cost-effectiveness from the perspective of programme beneficiaries; 4) cost-effectiveness from a societal


perspective;and5) subsidyeffectiveness in termsofprogrammecosts compared toenergy savingsandCO2emissionsreductions.

ProgrammeadministrationcostsIn order to examine implementation efficiency, i.e. administrative costs and the proportion of total

programmebudgetthesemadeup,acost-effectivenesscalculationwasimplemented.ThetotaladministrativecostsresultfromthecombinedadministrativecostsattheBAFAandtheBMWi.

Compared to other subsidy programmes7, the administrative cost quota of the HZO-programme iswithin the usual range. The share of administrative costs in the total budget of the subsidy programme is10.58%(asof31.12.2018).Ithasdecreasedovertime.Bytheendof2017itwas15.25%.Thisispartlyduetolearningeffectsintheadministrationandpartlysincetheabsolutesubsidysumperapplicationhasincreasedfrom391eurobytheendof2017to461eurobytheendof2018.

Programmeinducedinvestments/demandeffectThe induced investments (excluding VAT) of the programme correspond to the additional

macroeconomic demand effect and can also be interpreted as additional sales revenue of the HVACcontractors. Programme investments comprise the costs of the HVAC contractors and the costs of themeasures implementedby theend-users.Theanalysisdistinguishesbetween investmentsmade inanycase,i.e.alsowithouttheprogramme,and investments inducedbythefinancialsupportprovidedundertheHZO-programme.

The net investments per target group are calculated from the programme statistics. In order tocalculatetheadditionalinvestmentsinducedbytheHZO-programme,targetgroup-specificcausalityfactorsaredetermined,whicharebasedontheresultsoftheonlinesurveyconductedamongprogrammebeneficiaries.8By multiplying the total investments per target group with the target group-specific causality factors, theadditionalinvestmentsinducedbytheHZO-programmeareobtained.

The total gross investments (incl. VAT) amounted to 308,911,787 euro from programme start until30.06.2019.TheycomprisetheinvestmentsinducedbytheHZO-programmeamountingto108,184,168euro,investmentsof160,942,049eurothatwouldhavebeenmadeanywayandVATpaymentsof39,785,570euro.

Cost-effectivenessforprogrammebeneficiariesSubsidieswerepaidoutat30%ofthetotalcost(excludingVAT)ofoptimisingtheheatingsystemfor

the grant recipient. The cost-effectiveness from the end-user's perspective indicateswhether themeasuressupportedby theprogrammeareeconomicallyattractive for the targetgroupsandwhateffect the financialsupporthasinthisrespect.Thebenefit-cost-ratioiscalculatedbydividingthepresentvalueoftheenergycostsavingsoverthemeasurelifetimebytheinvestmentcosts(includingandexcludingthesubsidiesprovided).Thepresentvaluewascalculatedusinganinterestrateof1.5%forbothprivatebuildingownersandhomeowners’associations and property management companies and 8% for enterprises, and by assuming the followingmeasurelifetimes:10yearsforhydraulicbalancing,15yearsforglandlessandwarmwatercirculationpumps

7 TheHZOprogrammewasbenchmarkedagainstseveralcomparablenationalsubsidyprogrammes.Theseinclude:BAFA:Umweltprämie(environmentalbonus),BMWi:InvestitionszuschüssezumEinsatzhocheffizienterQuerschnitts-technologienimMittelstand(Investmentgrantsforuseofhighlyefficientcross-sectionaltechnologiesinmiddleclass),BMWi:EnergiesparberatungvorOrt,Förderjahr2012(Energysavingadviceonsite,fundingyear2012),BMWi:Beratungs-förderungfürKMUundfreieBerufe(ConsultingsupportforSMEsandliberalprofessions),KfW:EnergieberatungimMittelstand(Förderperiode2012-2013)(Energyconsultingformedium-sizedcompanies(fundingperiod2012-2013) 8 Thefollowingcausalityfactorsareappliedforthetargetgroups:privatebuildingowners:0.44,enterprisesandfreelancers:0.36,homeowners’associationsandpropertymanagementcompanies:0.31,other:publicinstitutions(municipalities,publiccorporations,specialpurposeassociationsandlocaladministrationunion),associationsandfoundations:0.32.


and30yearsfordryrunningcirculationpumps.Energycostsavingsarecalculatedwith2018finalenergypricesforelectricityandheat.9Thecalculationisdonefordifferenttypicalusecasesforthetargetgroups.Abenefit-costratio>1showsthatameasureimplementationiscost-effectiveforprogrammebeneficiaries.

The results of the analysis for pumps show thatmost of the supportedmeasures are cost-effectiveevenwithoutthesubsidies,butthatthefinancialincentivescanprovideadecisiveimpulse,inparticularinthecaseofdryrunningcirculationpumps(cf.Table2).

Table2:Resultsofthecost-effectivenessanalysisfromtheperspectiveofprogrammebeneficiaries

Measuretype

Dryrunning

circulationpumps

Warmwatercirculationpumps

Glandlesscirculationpumps

Targetgroup

analysedEnterprises

Home-owners’

associationsand

propertymanage-ment

companies


Home-owners’

associationsand

propertymanage-ment

companies

Home-owners’

associationsand

propertymanage-ment

companies



Wattofpumpsanalysed

wholerange

wholerange wholerange 100-199W ≤30W 100-199W ≤30W

Benefit-Cost-Ratioexcl.

subsidies

0.81 3.00 2.30 3.23 2.02 3.87 2.46

Benefit-Cost-Ratioincl.

subsidies

1.16 4.08 3.08 4.39 2.74 5.17 3.29

Theanalysishasalsoshownthathydraulicbalancing iscost-effective inconnectionwiththefinancial

incentivesasanindividuallysupportedmeasureforthethreeanalysedtargetgroups,althoughthebenefit-costratioforhomeowners’associationsandpropertymanagementcompanies(1.03)andprivatebuildingowners(1.01) isonlyslightlypositive.Thebenefit-cost ratio forenterprises iswith1.99significantlyhigher,meaningthat futureenergycostsavingswillalmostoutweightwicethe investmentcosts.Withoutsubsidieshydraulicbalancingis,however,asanindividualmeasurenotveryattractiveforthetwoothertargetgroupsinvestigated(benefit-cost ratios of 0.76 and 0.75). Also, in view of the high proportionate CO₂ reductions of hydraulicbalancing, it is important to keep hydraulic balancing in the focus of financial support and possibly toincentivisethemeasuremorestrongly.

Cost-effectivenessfromasocietalperspectiveTheindicatorreflectswhethertheenergysystemcostsavingsthatresultfromtheprogrammeinduced

energysavingsoutweightheinvestmentcosts(excl.VAT)ofthemeasuresimplemented.Thebenefit-costratio

9 Electricity:28.19ct/kWh(BMWi2018);heat:7.8ct/kWh(BMWi2018;C.A.R.M.E.N.E.V.2018).



iscalculatedbydividingthepresentvalueofavoidedenergysystemcostsoverthelifetimeofthemeasuresbythe investment costs (excl.VAT).Abenefit-cost ratio >1 shows that thepromotionof theHZOmeasures isbeneficialfromasocietalperspective.The net investment costs are directly calculated from the programme statistics. The avoidable long-runelectricitysystemcostsarebasedontheresultsofPrognosandIAEW(2014).Alowervalueof11.87ctandanuppervalueof15.53ctperkWhofelectricitysavedbyheatingandwarmwatercirculationpumpsisusedinthe calculations. As there is no comparable study for savings of thermal energy carriers in Germany, theavoidableenergysystemcostsforgasandheatingoilareapproximatedbasedonenergymarketprices,taxes,network tariffsandCO2-prices.Taking intoaccount theproportionate savingsofgasandheatingoil throughhydraulicbalancing,theaveragevaluesforsavingsofthermalenergysourcesamountto4.87ctand9.87ctpersavedkWh,dependingontheCO2priceapplied.10 Thetwolimitvaluesareappliedtotheachievedsavingsofhydraulic balancing.As the futuredevelopmentof the capitalmarket interest rate cannotbepredicted, thepresentvaluewascalculatedusinganinterestrateofboth4%and0%.Moreover,thesamemeasurelifetimeshavebeenassumedasintheaboveanalysisfromtheinvestorperspective.Furthermultipleimpactsofenergyefficiency such as employment orGDP effects, increased energy security or avoided environmental damagecostshavenotbeenconsideredinthecalculations.

The results show that the benefits of the programme, i.e. the avoided energy system costs,substantiallyexceedtheinvestmentcosts.Thisisalsotrueifacapitalmarketinterestrateof4%,whichishighfromtoday'sperspective,isassumed,iflowavoidedenergysystemcostsareassumedanddespiteneglectingtheothermultiplebenefitsforthenationaleconomy.Dependingontheinterestrateandenergysystemcostscenarioconsidered,thebenefitsoftheHZO-programmeexceedthecostsbymorethan1.5toalmost3times(cf. Table 3). Each euro invested thus leads to savings higher than one euro. The promotion of the HZOmeasuresisthereforebeneficialfromasocietalperspective.

Table3:Resultsofcost-effectivenessanalysisfromasocietalperspective

SensitivityanalysisA:Interestrate:4%Avoidedenergysystemcosts:low

SensitivityanalysisB:Interestrate:4%Avoidedenergy

systemcosts:high

SensitivityanalysisC:Interestrate:0%Avoidedenergysystemcosts:low

SensitivityanalysisD:Interestrate:0%Avoidedenergy

systemcosts:highPresentvalue(€) 160 222 214 296Investmentcosts(€) 101 101 101 101Benefit-Cost-Ratio 1.58 2.20 2.12 2.93

EffectivenessofsubsidiesprovidedTheeffectivenessofsubsidiesprovidedrepresentstherelationshipbetweentheprogrammecostsand

eithertheenergysavingsortheCO2emissionreductions.Itisanadditionalindicatorenablingthecomparisonofdifferent financial incentiveprogrammes to supporteconomicalhousekeepingon the federalbudget.TheeffectivenessofsubsidiesastheratiobetweentheprogrammecostsandtheabsoluteCO2reductionresultedin 37.29 euro / t CO₂ (gross) and 87.69 euro / t CO₂ (net) across all applications except accompanyingmeasures.11 The leverage effect of the programme was 0.32 euro in programme costs per euro invested(gross).

10 Alowervalueof25euro/tCO2reflectingthecurrentpriceintheEU-ETSisassumedandanuppervalueof180euro/tCO2reflectingtheexternaldamagecostofclimatechange(UBA2019).11 Accompanyingmeasuresarethoseinvestmentsthatareonlysubsidisedinconnectionwiththeperformanceofhydraulicbalancing,includingbufferstoragetanksandlinevalves.Thesemeasuresarenotdifferentiatedinthestatistics,thusnoCO2emissionreductioncanbecalculatedforthesecases.



Evaluationimplementationchallengesandlessonslearned

The evaluation was conducted without any implementation challenges. However, whilst themonitoringoftheprogrammeprovidedabroadersetofdata,andthescopeoftheevaluationrequestedbytheauthoritieswasbroadertoo,duringtheimplementationoftheevaluation,theevaluationteamencounteredarangeofchallengesthatrelatedtotheprogrammeandevaluationframework,theevaluationmethodologyaswellastodatacollection/availability.

From a methodological point of view, the calculated savings as well as some cost-effectivenessindicatorshavebeenstructurallyunderestimatedduetothefactthatthereisnoscientificallysound/reliableestimation of savings attributable to (in parts quite) costly accompanying measures. Furthermore, withhydraulic balancing accounting for a major share of the calculated programme savings, there is a strongdependency of the evaluation results on the assumed average final energy savings per year and m2. Thisparameter ishowever stronglydependentonabuilding’s insulation level (Wolffetal.2014)andwould thusrequire more detailed information on the building stock of programme beneficiaries for an accuratedetermination.

Lastly, with regard to data, the team encountered difficulties to engage HVAC contractors and thecirculator industry for expert interviews. Access to and appointment coordination with the former washamperedbythedescribedcapacityconstraintsandacertainmistrusttowardstheevaluationteamthoughtbysome to represent industry interests. Furthermore, alsowith regard to theprogramme statistics thereweresomemonitoringgapsthatunderminedtheaccuracyoftheimpactestimates.Forinstance,dataonhydraulicbalancingandaccompanyingmeasureswereonlycollectedinabinarymanner,i.e.whetherthemeasurehadbeen implemented or not but not how often /many were installed. Accordingly, this represented anothersourceofsystematicunderestimationofimpacts.

The listed challenges provided for some valuable lessons with regard to future evaluations ofcomparablesupportprogrammes.

Conclusions

Ineconomic terms, theHZOProgramme iscost-effectiveandworthwhile forbothend-usersandtheeconomyasawhole.Fromtheend-user'spointofview, it isunbureaucraticand recommendable.However,theoutreachoftheprogrammedifferedsignificantlyacrosstargetgroupsandregions.ThemainbeneficiariesoftheprogrammesofarareprivatebuildingownerssituatedinthetwomostpopulousstatesofGermany.Thetwoaspects, targetgroupand regionaldistribution,need further investigation tounderstandwhy this is thecase.TheuseoftheHZOProgrammeislimitedbyseveralfactorssuchasthecurrentlyhighcapacityconstraintsin the HVAC sector, significant prejudices about the supposedly high level of bureaucracy involved in theapplicationforfundingandconfusionaboutthenumeroussubsidisingoptionsforenergyefficiencymeasures.The evaluation team expects further findings from the empirical review of the qualitative barrier analysis,particularlyontheweightingofthesebarriers.

Based on the evaluation performed so far, a series of recommendations to increase programmeeffectivenesshavebeenformulated.Theseinclude:1)Anexplicittargetgroup-specificcommunicationstrategyforthepromotionofpumpreplacementandheatingoptimisationandcorrespondingadvertisingmeasurestoincrease the awarenessof theHZOProgramme;2)Motivationoffers, training and further education for theHVACworkforce on technical and subsidy-related questions and the qualification of energy consultants andworkers, especially for the planning and implementation of hydraulic balancing in apartment buildings andnon-residentialbuildingsand3)MergingtheHZOProgrammewiththeprogrammesoftheKfWinamodularsystem in the sense of a ‘one-stop shop’. The first three recommendationswould also require a significant


increase in the shareof theoverall budget used for these supportive actions, by at least a factor of twoorthree.

However, ithas tobenoted that these recommendationsarebasedon theevaluation findingsuntilJune 2019. Since then the political framework conditions (such as the new climate protection law) havechanged.Suchcontextualfactorsmayhaveaneffectonprogrammeresults/progress.Furthermore,thedatacollection process is not completed yet. Both of these factors impact upon the final recommendations theevaluationteamwillformulateinitsfinalreport.

Acknowledgements

Thepaperpresentsinterimresultsoftheproject“EvaluationoftheDirectiveGoverningthePromotionof Heating Optimisation through Highly Efficient Pumps and Hydraulic Balancing”, which is funded by theGermanFederalEnergyEfficiencyCenter(BfEE).

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Documents

The Federal Programme for Heating ... - energy-evaluation.org€¦ · theory-based evaluation methods, market and stakeholder analysis and a barrier analysis. The initial results