View
216
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
The External Environment for Developing Countries
September 2009The World Bank
Development EconomicsProspects Group
0
100
200
300
Liquidity in global inter-bank markets have virtually returned to normal conditions
G-7 meeting
Pre-crisisUSD average
Source: Thomson/Datastream.
Dollar
Euro
The acute phase of the financial crisis has passedLIBOR-OIS spreads, basis points
Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
The decline in industrial production has turned around
industrial production, ch% (saar)
OECD
Developing
World
Source: National Agencies through Thomson /Datastream.
Industrial countries
U.S. consumer spending will cometo support GDP outturns for third quarter
real PCE and retail sales growth (saar) [L]; change in employment (‘000, 3mma) [R]
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
Source: U.S. Departments of Commerce and Labor.
Real PCE [L]
Change in employment [R]
Retail volumes [L]
Sectoral developments have been upbeat
ISM headline Mfgr and Svcs indices [L]; capital goods orders, ch% (saar) [R]
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-0930
33
35
38
40
43
45
48
50
53
55
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
Source: Institute for Supply Management, Department of Commerce.
Capital goods orders [R]
ISM Manufacturing
ISM Services
U.S. trade developments should offer modest boost to GDP as well
goods export and import volumes, ch% saar
Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09-50.0
-37.5
-25.0
-12.5
0.0
12.5
25.0
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
Export volumes
Import volumes
Japan’s orders, exports and production take a huge leg up over June and July
core machinery orders, export volumes and mfgr output, ch% saar
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Source: Bank of Japan and Japan Cabinet Office.
Production
Core machinery orders
Goods export volumes
Q1-2008 Q2-2008 Q3-2008 Q4-2008 Q1-2009 Q2-2009-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Other Asia
EU USA
Source: Bank of Japan and DECPG calculations.
Japan’s exports receive a boost from improved demand in Asia and United States contributions to growth of Japanese export
volumes (yr/yr)
Japanese consumer spending retrenchesas labor markets deteriorate quickly
unemployment rate (%) [L]; household spending and retail sales, ch% (y/y) [R]
Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-093.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Source: Japan Cabinet Office.
Retail sales [R]
Unemployment rate % [L]
Household expenditure [R]
Euro Area GDP outturns improved broadly in second quarter
GDP growth Q1-2009 and Q2-2009, ch% (q/q saar)
Germany
Netherlands
Italy
Austria
EURO AREA
Belgium
Spain
Portugal
Ireland
France
Greece
Denmark
-16 -12 -8 -4 0 4
Q2-2009 Q1-2009
Source: European Commission and Eurostat.
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
German and French exports breach into positive territory, underpinning production
goods export volumes ch% (saar)
Germany
Source: Eurostat.
France
Household spending remains weakas spillovers from trade await
consumer spending volumes, ch% (yr–on-yr)
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
Source: EUROSTAT.
Italy France
Germany
Industrial production
Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
The pace of decline in industrial production has turned aroundindustrial production, ch% (saar)
OECD
Developing
World
Source: National Agencies through Thomson /Datastream.
Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
East Asia in the fore, with a general uptrend across all regions
Developing
Industrial production, percentage change (saar)
Latin America
Europe & Central Asia
South Asia
Middle-East & North AfricaEast Asia & Pacific
Source: National Agencies through Thomson /Datastream.
industrial production, ch% (saar)
Growth recovery fastest among countries that had steepest declines– levels depressed
Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group
2008 Peak 2008/09 Trough Latest data point70
75
80
85
90
95
100Oil producing countries
Other MIC's and HIC's (incl LAC Resource exporters, US, UK)
Countries with large imbalances and/or affected via trade channels
Capital goods exporters
industrial production
International trade
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
China's trade surplus down on surg-ing imports
Trade balance $bn annualized [R]; exports and imports, ch% saar [L]
Source: National Agencies through Haver Analytics.
Imports [L]
Exports [L]
Balance of trade [R]
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Global trade volumes stabilize at low levels
World export and import vol-umes, ch%, saar
Exports Imports
Source: Netherlands Central Plan Bureau (CPB).
Q2-2008 Q3-2008 Q4-2008 Q1-2009 Q2-2009-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
Source: Department of Commerce.
U.S. current balance improves further in second quarter to 2.8% of GDP
billions U.S. dollars
Income
Services
Non-oilBOT
Oil balance
Transfers
Current account
Oil prices
Oil prices supported by improving fundamentals
Jan-03
Feb-03
Mar-03
Apr-03
May-03
Jun-03
Jul-03
Aug-03
Sep-03
Oct-03
Nov-03
Dec-03
Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Sep-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Dec-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
$/bbl mb/d
Oil price [L scale]
OPEC-11 Production [R]
Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.
U.S. crude oil inventories decline but remain high
Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Sep-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Dec-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
M bbl
Source: U.S. Department of Energy and DECPG Commodities Group.
5-year high-low ranges
WTI Futures Prices - NYMEX
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Sep 11
$/bbl
Monthly contract prices to Dec 2014* for select dates in 2009
Feb 18
Jul 13
Jun 11
Source: NYMEX.
Non-oil commodity prices
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
Beverages
Raw Materials
Food
Agriculture prices higher on sharp gains in sugar, rubber and fats & oils
(2000=100)
Source: DECPG Commodities Group.
Metals prices increase on supply constraints
Jan-05Jul-05
Jan-06Jun-06
Dec-06Jun-07
Dec-07Jun-08
Dec-08Jun-09
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
$/ton $/ton
Lead
Copper
Nickel
Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.
Gold prices rise on concerns about the dollar, inflation and the economy
Jan-07Jan-07Jan-07Jan-07Jan-07Jan-07Jan-07Jan-07Jan-07Jan-07Jan-07Feb-07Feb-07Feb-07Feb-07Feb-07Feb-07Feb-07Feb-07Feb-07Feb-07Mar-07Mar-07Mar-07Mar-07Mar-07Mar-07Mar-07Mar-07Mar-07Mar-07Mar-07Apr-07Apr-07Apr-07Apr-07Apr-07Apr-07Apr-07Apr-07Apr-07Apr-07Apr-07May-07May-07May-07May-07May-07May-07May-07May-07May-07May-07May-07Jun-07Jun-07Jun-07Jun-07Jun-07Jun-07Jun-07Jun-07Jun-07Jun-07Jun-07Jul-07Jul-07Jul-07Jul-07Jul-07Jul-07Jul-07Jul-07Jul-07Jul-07Jul-07Aug-07Aug-07Aug-07Aug-07Aug-07Aug-07Aug-07Aug-07Aug-07Aug-07Aug-07Sep-07Sep-07Sep-07Sep-07Sep-07Sep-07Sep-07Sep-07Sep-07Sep-07Oct-07Oct-07Oct-07Oct-07Oct-07Oct-07Oct-07Oct-07Oct-07Oct-07Oct-07Oct-07Nov-07Nov-07Nov-07Nov-07Nov-07Nov-07Nov-07Nov-07Nov-07Nov-07Nov-07Dec-07Dec-07Dec-07Dec-07Dec-07Dec-07Dec-07Dec-07Dec-07Dec-07Jan-08Jan-08Jan-08Jan-08Jan-08Jan-08Jan-08Jan-08Jan-08Jan-08Jan-08Jan-08Feb-08Feb-08Feb-08Feb-08Feb-08Feb-08Feb-08Feb-08Feb-08Feb-08Mar-08Mar-08Mar-08Mar-08Mar-08Mar-08Mar-08Mar-08Mar-08Mar-08Mar-08Apr-08Apr-08Apr-08Apr-08Apr-08Apr-08Apr-08Apr-08Apr-08Apr-08Apr-08May-08May-08May-08May-08May-08May-08May-08May-08May-08May-08May-08Jun-08Jun-08Jun-08Jun-08Jun-08Jun-08Jun-08Jun-08Jun-08Jun-08Jul-08Jul-08Jul-08Jul-08Jul-08Jul-08Jul-08Jul-08Jul-08Jul-08Jul-08Jul-08Aug-08Aug-08Aug-08Aug-08Aug-08Aug-08Aug-08Aug-08Aug-08Aug-08Sep-08Sep-08Sep-08Sep-08Sep-08Sep-08Sep-08Sep-08Sep-08Sep-08Sep-08Oct-08Oct-08Oct-08Oct-08Oct-08Oct-08Oct-08Oct-08Oct-08Oct-08Oct-08Oct-08Nov-08Nov-08Nov-08Nov-08Nov-08Nov-08Nov-08Nov-08Nov-08Nov-08Dec-08Dec-08Dec-08Dec-08Dec-08Dec-08Dec-08Dec-08Dec-08Dec-08Dec-08Jan-09Jan-09Jan-09Jan-09Jan-09Jan-09Jan-09Jan-09Jan-09Jan-09Jan-09Feb-09Feb-09Feb-09Feb-09Feb-09Feb-09Feb-09Feb-09Feb-09Feb-09Mar-09Mar-09Mar-09Mar-09Mar-09Mar-09Mar-09Mar-09Mar-09Mar-09Mar-09Apr-09Apr-09Apr-09Apr-09Apr-09Apr-09Apr-09Apr-09Apr-09Apr-09Apr-09May-09May-09May-09May-09May-09May-09May-09May-09May-09May-09May-09Jun-09Jun-09Jun-09Jun-09Jun-09Jun-09Jun-09Jun-09Jun-09Jun-09Jun-09Jul-09Jul-09Jul-09Jul-09Jul-09Jul-09Jul-09Jul-09Jul-09Jul-09Jul-09Aug-09Aug-09Aug-09Aug-09Aug-09Aug-09Aug-09Aug-09Aug-09Aug-09Aug-09Sep-09Sep-09Sep-09Sep-09Sep-09400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
per toz
Gold in USD
Gold in euros
Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.
International Finance
Flows slowed in August in the wake of a surge in July bond issuance
Source: DECPG Finance Team.
Gross capital flows to emerging markets
$ billion
2007 2008 2009
Total H1 Total Jan-Aug H1 Jun July Aug YTD
Total 652 258 389 315 112 23 38 11 159
Bonds 146 53 65 60 38 3 18 3 57
Banks 312 151 257 192 40 8 7 4 52
Equity 194 54 68 62 33 12 13 4 51
Lat. America 156 61 90 75 36 8 12 1 49
Bonds 45 17 20 18 15 2 6 1 22
E. Europe 247 99 157 124 22 5 13 3 39
Bonds 64 27 35 33 13 1 10 1 24
Asia 188 69 98 81 46 10 11 6 61
Bonds 23 7 7 7 8 0 1 1 8
Others 61 28 44 35 7 1 1 1 10
Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Source: JPMorgan-Chase.
Sovereign spreadEMBI
Corporate spreadCEMBI
Emerging Market bond spreads continue to narrow
basis points
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-0970
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Source: Bloomberg.
Developed markets
Emerging markets
Global equities continue uptrendMSCI indexes, Jan-2008 = 100.
Currencies
Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-091.230
1.270
1.310
1.350
1.390
1.430
1.470
1.510
1.550
1.590
1.630 86
90
94
98
102
106
110
Source: Thomson/Datastream.
yen/USD
USD/Euro (inverse)
Dollar depreciation accelerates over August and September
USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right]
Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09-0.60
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
Source: Thomson/Datastream.
US LIBOR - EURIBOR
Euromarket interest differentials move against the greenback
difference: USD 6-month LIBOR and EURIBOR 6-months (basis points)
Emerging market currencies continue gains against U.S. dollar
percentage change (USD per LCU) (%)
ZAF Rand
Brz rei
Kor won
Indo rph
Mex pso
Rus rbl
Pol zty
Tur lra
Ind Rpe
Thai bht
Phl pso
Chn RMB
0 5 10 15
Source: Thomson/Datastream.
Second quarter 2009
Third quarter 2009
Stronger Local Currency
The External Environment for Developing Countries
September 2009The World Bank
Development EconomicsProspects Group