The Evolving State of Open Access - MemberClicksThe Evolving State of Open Access A Delta Think Investigation Prepared by: Deni Auclair February, 2017. ... — Digital Strategy & New

The Evolving State of Open Access

A Delta Think Investigation

Prepared by:Deni Auclair

February, 2017

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deltathink.com/investigationsThe Evolving State of Open Access

© Delta Think, Inc., 2017. All rights reserved. Proprietary & Confidential.

AGENDA

• About Delta Think

• About Delta Think Investigations: Open Access

• Methodology

• Market Analysis

• Q&A

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DELTA THINK

• Founded in 2005

• Focused on scholarly communications:

— Strategic Marketing & Market Research

— Digital Strategy & New Product Development

— Technology & Organizational Transition

• Delta Think OA Investigation draws on all

capabilities

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DELTA THINK INVESTIGATIONS

• Deep dives into key market topics

• First Investigation: Open Access

• Analyzing a fluid market

• An evergreen analytics tool

• Third-party market analysis

No single industry data source

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MEETING A MARKET NEED

Lots of information on Open Access……but often nebulous, speculative, and confusing.

A tool that meets the need for speed.

• Navigate complexity

• Actionable Decisions

• Flexible Format

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METHODOLOGY

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METHODOLOGY

• Qualitative Data:- 30+ interviews: publishers, funders, archive managers, institutions,

thought leaders

- 2017 Plan: 50-100 publishers, 20 funders, 10 repositories, 20 institutions, 10 thought leaders

- Conferences, webinars, podcasts

• Quantitative data:- Includes data on 25K journals

- Publisher data also from interviews and questionnaires

- Public data sources

- Websites

- Reports/White papers

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ANALYSIS

• Cross reference confidential data from interviews with public data sources

- Bottom-up market sizing, rather than top-down

- Analyze patterns

• Confidential data remains confidential

- Goal: Benchmarks

• Public Scopus data: a starting point

- Adjusted for inconsistencies with publisher info

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-15%

0%

15%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Scopus (All Docs)

SciForum.net

SCImago

Scopus

WoS

PMC

YoY Growth of Total Published Articles

Industry-wide problem!

Sources: as indicated in chart legend, Delta Think analysis.

© 2016 Delta Think Inc. All rights reserved.

May not be reused without permission.

Please visit DeltaThink.com/Investigations for more.

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MARKET ANALYSIS

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Open Access Market2015 $374M2016 $419M

Growth 10%-15% pa → 2020

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Key Driver: Funders – Dissemination

Europe

• Centralized Vision (Horizon 2020)

• Some mandate against Hybrid

UK

• Centralized negotiation & policy.

• Funders aspirational; mix allowed

US

• Least centralized

• Public Access

China

• Reward publication in Journals w/ IF … esp. if > 5

Academic Independence

Fragmented Policy Landscape

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0%

5%

10%

15%

Sh

are

Publisher

Dynamics: Consolidation – Transition

7,500+

n=250

Share of Global OA Article Output– Top 250 Publishers

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0%

5%

10%

15%

Sh

are

Publisher

Just a few will have a profound effect

Share of Global OA Article Output– Top 15 Publishers

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$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

ACS Elsevier FrontiersMedia

Hindawi PublicLibrary ofScience

SpringerNature

Taylor &Francis

Wiley WoltersKluwerHealth

AP

C (

US

D a

s s

tate

d in

pri

ce lis

t)APCs – Selected Publishers’ Spread of List Prices

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Pricing – Many Factors

License Content Type

Embargo length

Pricing Mission

Competition Introductory Waivers

Discounts

Bundles Membership

Offsetting

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APC Analysis: APCs vs. “Impact” by Fully OA or Hybrid

APC (USD as stated in price list)

SN

IP 2

01

5)

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Hybrid Outlook

2012 2013 2014 2015

Nu

mb

er

of

art

icle

s p

ub

lis

he

d

?

Funder Cost base

Author Choice

Funder IF

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Open Access Output16-18% of total

Open Access Revenue3% of total

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Megajournals & “LMDJs”

Megajournals

• “sound science” threshold + large volume

• ~15% of OA article output

• ~3% of ALL article output!

LMDJs = Large Multi-Disciplinary Journals

• Megajournals’ more selective cousins

• ~1.5% of OA article output

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0k

50k

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Total Article Count YoY Change in Article Count

Megajournals - Total Output

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k

5k

10k

15k

20k

25k

30k

35k

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

AIP Advances

BMJ Open

Medicine

Optics Express

PLOS One

ScientificReports

Scientific WorldJournal

SpringerPlus

Zootaxa

Megajournals - Total Output

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Global Analysis: Articles per Journal (Selected Territories)

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Global Analysis: Share of OA Output (Selected Territories)

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Wrap up

• No single industry data source

• Now normalised

• Growth slowing but remains strong

• Funder mandates

• Journal reputation

• Incremental revenue model for established publishers

• OA becoming part of the Big Deal

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[email protected]/Investigations

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What is the approximate compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) for total articles published in megajournals from 2013 to 2016?

a. 10%b. 20%c. 30%d. 40%

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Thank You! Questions?

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The Evolving State of Open Access - MemberClicksThe Evolving State of Open Access A Delta Think Investigation Prepared by: Deni Auclair February, 2017. ... — Digital Strategy & New