The Evolution and Conclusion of the Wars in

Afghanistan and IraqChapter 14

American Foreign Policy and Political Ambition, 2nd ed., Ray, 2013, Sage

The Afghanistan WarEarly successes accomplished with limited

ground troop deployment.Focus on air power and special forces troops.Strongly debated – large numbers of ground

troops vs. air power and special forces.Dramatic early successes.Signs of trouble indicated by rising troop

fatalities.While goal of deposing Taliban government was

achieved, destroying al-Qaeda was problematic.

American Foreign Policy and Political Ambition, 2nd ed., Ray, 2013, Sage

American Foreign Policy and Political Ambition, 2nd ed., Ray, 2013, Sage

Why Did Problems Arise?Reasons for U.S. difficulties:

The role of Pakistan. Geographic location – close to Taliban, al-Qaeda

strongholds. Ethnic ties between Pakistan Pashtuns and Taliban. Taliban leaders had ties to Pakistani government

officials.U.S. military forces and defense budget had

been downsized after Cold War.Attention of Bush administration moved to

Iraq. Diverted money from Afghanistan war. Diverted manpower (limited ability to increase

troops).American Foreign Policy and Political Ambition, 2nd ed., Ray, 2013, Sage

The Iraq WarOperation Iraqi Freedom launched March,

2003Debates again about number of ground troops

necessary for success.Concerns in Congress about potential costs of

war.“Coalition of the Willing” forces had early

successes.Saddam Hussein made last public appearance

in April.Problems began to arise fairly quickly.Interactive Timeline of Iraq WarAmerican Foreign Policy and Political Ambition, 2nd ed., Ray, 2013, Sage

American Foreign Policy and Political Ambition, 2nd ed., Ray, 2013, Sage

Why Did Problems Arise?Poor advance planning to address

reconstruction.Excluded State Department planners.Unprepared to secure the country.

Overly optimistic assumptions.Believed they could rely on Iraqi security forces to

establish order.Believed international community would help U.S.

in Iraq.Believed a functional interim government would

be set up quickly.American Foreign Policy and Political Ambition, 2nd ed., Ray, 2013, Sage

Mistakes MadeCoalition Provisional Authority (CPA) decisions:

De-Ba’athification – purge Ba’ath Party members from government.

Disbanded the Iraqi army and police forces.Military abuses of prisoners at Abu Ghraib prison.

War Crimes in IraqU.S. invasion benefitted bin Laden and al-Qaeda.

Bin Laden wanted to overturn secular governments.Detainee abuses increased anti-American sentiment,

increased al-Qaeda recruitment.

American Foreign Policy and Political Ambition, 2nd ed., Ray, 2013, Sage

Changing Strategies – Domestic Politics2006 election resulted in Democrats taking

control of both houses of Congress.Bush was in 2nd term (lame duck president).

Focus on preserving legacy? Focus on having influence on successor?

Iraq war was decidedly unpopular in US.2006 Pew Research Center poll:

49% said military force in Iraq was a mistake. 51% felt the war was not going well. 50% believed US troops should be brought home as

quickly as possible.

American Foreign Policy and Political Ambition, 2nd ed., Ray, 2013, Sage

American Foreign Policy and Political Ambition, 2nd ed., Ray, 2013, Sage

Declining War in Iraq• Could the U.S.’s

initial strategy in Iraq have been changed to achieve success?

• What do you think was the most likely factor that drove the change of strategy in Iraq?

New Strategy in Iraq“Surge” – Bush sent more troops into Iraq.New strategy – counter-insurgency.

Protecting Iraqi population from attacks by insurgents.Argument: American public will tolerate casualties if it

believes it is winning a war.Encouraged the organization and mobilization of

Sunni communities.“Awakening” – separated Sunnis from al-Qaeda.Brought about tense peace between Sunnis and Shia

elements (Sunnis could protect themselves).Reduced coalition casualties by about 50%.

American Foreign Policy and Political Ambition, 2nd ed., Ray, 2013, Sage

War versus Nation-BuildingUS successes at replacing “unacceptable” regimes

is extremely limited.US has been involved in 18 nation-building projects

since 1899.Only successes: Germany and Japan.More often leaves instability and anti-American

sentiment.Peace-building attempts in Iraq were unsuccessful.

Packer (2005) – never enough troops to ensure stability.

Disbanding Iraqi military and police forces created power vacuum.

American Foreign Policy and Political Ambition, 2nd ed., Ray, 2013, Sage

Obama and IraqObama promised to end the war in Iraq

quickly during presidential campaign.

Wanted to focus on war in Afghanistan.But could not be seen as “losing” the war.Likely felt vulnerable to charges of being “soft

on national security” or “soft on terrorism.”

July, 2009 - Department of Defense announced troops would be home within weeks.

American Foreign Policy and Political Ambition, 2nd ed., Ray, 2013, Sage

Ending the War in IraqU.S. troops did not withdraw from Iraq within a

matter of weeks.Obama established a policy of withdrawing

troops according to the timetable set by 2008 Bush agreement with Iraq.All troops were to be removed by December, 2011.

Obama wanted to leave some troops after December, 2011 to continue to train Iraqi troops.Iraqi prime minister refused to grant U.S. troops

legal immunity.Last troops out according to original timetable.

American Foreign Policy and Political Ambition, 2nd ed., Ray, 2013, Sage

American Foreign Policy and Political Ambition, 2nd ed., Ray, 2013, Sage

Obama’s War• Obama pledges to re

move troops• Last US troops

pulled out on December 18, 2011

• Why didn’t Obama immediately begin withdrawing troops from Iraq?

Iraq War Results?Removed Saddam Hussein from power.Serious sectarian violence continues.U.S. influence continues to erode

Embassy staff cut (2012)$1 billion in training funds cut in half (2012).

1.5 million troops served in Iraq from 2003-2011.Estimated costs: $800 billion - $3 trillion.About 4500 American military personnel died in

combat.Estimated 100,000 Iraqis died.

American Foreign Policy and Political Ambition, 2nd ed., Ray, 2013, Sage

American Foreign Policy and Political Ambition, 2nd ed., Ray, 2013, Sage

Iraq and its Consequences• 10 year recap• $1 trillion in

taxpayer dollars spent on the war

• 4,487 US Troops killed

• 75 US Helicopters downed in Iraq

• 4,845 bombs dropped on Iraq during the “Shock and Awe” campaign

Obama and AfghanistanDuring campaign, Obama declared Afghanistan to

be the “right war.”Initiated first surge of personnel in March, 2009.Initiated second, counter-insurgency surge in

November, 2009.Announced troops would begin withdrawing by July,

2011.Serious problems in Afghanistan in 2009:

Karzai government had lost credibility.Taliban was taking over large portions.Repeated attacks by Afghan military and police on

coalition forces.American Foreign Policy and Political Ambition, 2nd ed., Ray, 2013, Sage

American Foreign Policy and Political Ambition, 2nd ed., Ray, 2013, Sage

Obama and Karzai Relations• Obama's ultimatu

m• What do you think

was the most likely factor that drove the change of strategy in Afghanistan?

• Timeline of War in Afghanistan

Ending the War in AfghanistanMay, 2011 - bin Laden was located and killed in

Pakistan.Obama announcement on Bin Laden's DeathReduced urgency regarding al-Qaeda and Taliban in

Afghanistan.Seen as a significant step forward in conflict against al-

Qaeda.Taliban unlikely to allow al-Qaeda to set up a base

again.End goal was to have almost all troops out by end of

2014.Penn State Rally after Bin Laden's Death

American Foreign Policy and Political Ambition, 2nd ed., Ray, 2013, Sage

Afghanistan War Results?Taliban had been ousted from control of the

central government.Al Qaeda no longer had a base of operations.However, by 2012, hopes for Afghanistan had

waned.Unlikely to have a functional, democratic

government by 2014.Unlikely to be able to provide security (military,

police) to entire country by 2014.Taliban would likely stay in control of parts of

the country.American Foreign Policy and Political Ambition, 2nd ed., Ray, 2013, Sage