The End of Think Tanks

(As We Know Them)

Is Reut a Think Tank?

Our Big Ideas / ‘Impact’• Development: ISRAEL 15 Vision (06’)• Periphery: Regional Leapfrogging (10’)• Poverty: Inclusiveness (11’)• De-legitimization: Political Firewall (10’)• Palestinians: Coordinated Unilateralism (06’)• National Security: Total Foreign Policy (11’)• Crisis Preparedness: Civil Resilience Network (09’)• Diaspora Relations: Renewed Zionism (10’)• Intl assistance: 1 Billion Within 1 Decade (11’)

Facts and Figures

• Average Age: 31 • No PhDs• Collaboration with hundreds of experts• 25 Disciplines (Engineering, Architecture, Computers, Judaism,…)

• Leadership backgrounds + social skills required• Foreign Nationals: 1/3 of team• Globalization: 30 countries and across USA• Donors: +100

Outline

Part I:Ecosystem Transformed

Part II:Impact & MeasurementPart III:Next Generation of Think

• Institutions • Aspiration to IMPACT • Research & Analysis• Policy areas• Independent

Scope

Part I: Ecosystem Transformed

Example: Brookings & Marshall Plan

Step 1: AccessChair of Senate Foreign Relations Committee asks Brookings for “an objective study…”

Step 2: ResearchBrookings produces a 20-page report containing eight recommendations for the new program

Step 3: ImpactBrookings report becomes work-sheet for Government Plan

Change in the Nature of Change

Time

Relevancy

Paradigm ‘relevant’ to

reality

Paradigm Eroded

Paradigm Loses

RelevancyRise of Competing Paradigms

New Paradigm

Generations

A few years

A World Without Paradigms

Time

Relevancy

Fundamental Surprises

RelevancyClear research

needs

IncubationSituational Learning

Denial+ Situational

Learning

Basic LearningAdaptation

Relevancy Gap

A Revolutionary AgeComplexity: More players interacting

Black Swans:Need for flexibility

No experts: Need for new knowledge

Decline of Gov: Rise of others

Ideas not Enough: Framing & reframing

Pressures to adapt & lead

More Adaptive Problems

Technical ProblemSolution: Clear

Problem: TechnicalResponsibility: Authority

Adaptive ProblemSolution: Requires Learning

Problem: AdaptiveResponsibility: Broad

Experts are cheap buyer’s market

Lack of knowledge / info Stables of experts

Abundance of knowledge Need to make sense of things / no experts

Cacophony / Narrowcasting Emphasis on getting heard

Research = Impact Outputs = Impact

Research / Output not impact impact mandates leadership

Gov weak; borders permeated expand focus beyond Gov

Big Gov solves societal problems Gov focus

Diverging Reality

Previous Mindset

Fundamental Gaps in Think Tank Model

Broadcasting Exposure = Impact

Expertise rare Sellers’ market

Ideologies From idea to policy

Pragmatism what works in field

Example: Macroeconomic Policy

Washington Conesus

10 Macroeconomic Policies1980-2008 Dominant Mindset

No clear success

Washington Confusion

Growth ReportFocus on structures

Pragmatic / bottom-up

Rodrik, Dani. 2006. "Goodbye Washington Consensus, Hello Washington Confusion? A Review of the World Bank's Economic Growth in the 1990s: Learning from a Decade of Reform." Journal of Economic Literature

Part II: Impact & Measurement

Definition of Impact

“Significant or lasting change in people’s lives, brought about in a given action or series of actions”

InstitutionalA technical fix to adap prob.

Law; policy; budget; bldg; info Control of outcome / not impact

EcosystemAdaptive Res to Adap. Prob.

Language; discourse; incentivesNo control over outcome / impact

Integrated approachMultiple tech fixes along a chain

Homeless: food, training, job, shelterControl of output / outcome.

Not Impact

Impact 101

Theory of ChangeFocused

Theory of ChangeComplex

Operational Theory

Complex

Operational Theory

FocusedNiche

A technical fix to a tech prob.Soup kitchen; New library

Control of output / outcome. Not impact

Understanding Ecosystems

Government

NGOs

Business

Academia

Media

PhilanthropistsActivists

ValuesPrioritiesLanguagePatternsSymbols Heroes

What to Measure?

Inputs Activities Outcomes Social ImpactOutputsWhat goes in

• Funds• Equipment• Expertise

What happens

• Workshops• Soup kitchen• Training• Construction

Immediate results

• People fed• Policy papers• Coalitions

Mid-term results

• Improved conditions

• Change political position

Effects on root causes

• Sustained change in metrics

• Fundamental change in social norms and attitudes

Inputs Activities Outcomes SocialImpact

Outputs

Input measurement Result measurement

Knowledge Creation Promoting alternative framework and vision

Influence

“Measuring” impact

No direct impactOften undue credit

No mission accountability

Presently

What Do You “Measure"?

Desired

Publications

Recommendations

Media Appearances

Access

Recognition

Language and Discourse

Structural Changes

Incentives & Priorities

Heroes / Symbols

Patterns of Conduct

Policy

Ecosystem

Something to brag about

No direct claim to fame

Next Generation of Think Tanks

From Stables of Hedgehogs to Packs Foxes

'Foxes' evaluate the meaning of things by moving between areas

of knowledge, understanding reality as constantly changing.

(Isaiah Berlin)

'Hedgehogs' have expertise in a defined area, and constantly try and present things as fitting or not fitting

into their system of beliefs. (Isaiah Berlin)

New Role for Think Tanks

Ecos

yste

m

Ecos

yste

m

New Knowledge: In-Between

Academics to activists

Disciplines: existing and non-existing

Concepts, ideas, ideologies

Process more important than brilliance

Intuition

Impact: From Research to Leadership

VisionQuestions

PartnershipsEcosystem

Catalyzing Change

ResearchAnswersAccessPolicy

Exposure

Institutional Reforms

Organizational brand

Efforts over areas of knowledge

Process over knowledge

From government to non-government

New categories of products

Thank You!

CatalystDirect actions in all sectors

through partnerships & coalitions

Conceptual FrameworkAlternative mindset and the

different response

Effects TableList of transformations required to

affect the eco-system

Reut’s Impact Strategy

Theory of ChangeFocused

Theory of ChangeComplex

Operational Theory

Complex

Operational Theory

FocusedNiche

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