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The Emotional Brain , Joseph LeDoux, Simon&Schuster, 1996. Bounded Rationality. When we don’t have all the time, all the information, or all the intellectual ability to make a completely fact-based analytical decision. ( Models of Bounded Rationality, Herbert Simon, MIT Press, 1982). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The Emotional Brain, Joseph LeDoux, Simon&Schuster, 1996
Bounded RationalityBounded Rationality
When we don’t have all the time, all the When we don’t have all the time, all the
information, or all the intellectual ability to information, or all the intellectual ability to
make a completely fact-based analytical make a completely fact-based analytical
decision.decision.
When we don’t have all the time, all the When we don’t have all the time, all the
information, or all the intellectual ability to information, or all the intellectual ability to
make a completely fact-based analytical make a completely fact-based analytical
decision.decision.
((Models of Bounded Rationality, Models of Bounded Rationality, Herbert Simon,Herbert Simon, MIT Press, 1982)MIT Press, 1982)
MENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKINGMENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKING
Optimism BiasOptimism Bias
It won’t happen to meIt won’t happen to me
Optimism BiasOptimism Bias
It won’t happen to meIt won’t happen to me
Judgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and BiasesJudgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and Biases Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982 Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982
"How concerned are you about the possibility there will "How concerned are you about the possibility there will
be more major terrorist attacks in the U. S.? Does that be more major terrorist attacks in the U. S.? Does that
worry you a great deal, somewhat, not too much or not worry you a great deal, somewhat, not too much or not
at all?”at all?”
A Great DealA Great Deal SomewhatSomewhat Not Too MuchNot Too Much Not at AllNot at All 29% 45% 17% 8%29% 45% 17% 8%
"How concerned are you about the chance that "How concerned are you about the chance that you you
personallypersonally might be the victim of a terrorist attack? might be the victim of a terrorist attack?
Does that worry you a great deal, somewhat, not too Does that worry you a great deal, somewhat, not too
much or not at all?”much or not at all?”
A Great DealA Great Deal SomewhatSomewhat Not Too MuchNot Too Much Not at AllNot at All 10% 25% 35 % 29% 10% 25% 35 % 29%
ABC News 9/5-7/06ABC News 9/5-7/06
MENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKINGMENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKING
Optimism BiasOptimism Bias
It won’t happen to meIt won’t happen to me
FramingFraming
How the issue is initially describedHow the issue is initially described
Optimism BiasOptimism Bias
It won’t happen to meIt won’t happen to me
FramingFraming
How the issue is initially describedHow the issue is initially described
Judgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and BiasesJudgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and Biases Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982 Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982
MENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKINGMENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKING
RepresentativenessRepresentativeness
Applying partial information by fitting Applying partial information by fitting it into existing patterns.it into existing patterns.
RepresentativenessRepresentativeness
Applying partial information by fitting Applying partial information by fitting it into existing patterns.it into existing patterns.
Judgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and BiasesJudgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and Biases Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982 Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982
MENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKINGMENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKING
Anchoring and AdjustmentAnchoring and Adjustment. .
Our judgment depends on where an Our judgment depends on where an initial value is set.initial value is set.
Anchoring and AdjustmentAnchoring and Adjustment. .
Our judgment depends on where an Our judgment depends on where an initial value is set.initial value is set.
Judgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and BiasesJudgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and Biases Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982 Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982
MENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKINGMENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKING
Anchoring and AdjustmentAnchoring and Adjustment
9 x 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = ? 9 x 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = ?
Anchoring and AdjustmentAnchoring and Adjustment
9 x 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = ? 9 x 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = ?
Judgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and BiasesJudgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and Biases Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982 Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982
MENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKINGMENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKING
Anchoring and AdjustmentAnchoring and Adjustment
1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8 x 9 = ? 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8 x 9 = ?
Anchoring and AdjustmentAnchoring and Adjustment
1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8 x 9 = ? 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8 x 9 = ?
Judgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and BiasesJudgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and Biases Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982 Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982
MENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKINGMENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKING
Loss AversionLoss Aversion
Equivalent loss and gain don’t feel Equivalent loss and gain don’t feel the same.the same.
Loss AversionLoss Aversion
Equivalent loss and gain don’t feel Equivalent loss and gain don’t feel the same.the same.
Judgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and BiasesJudgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and Biases Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982 Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982
TWO INTERVENTIONS FOR TREATING A TWO INTERVENTIONS FOR TREATING A POTENTIALLY LETHAL HEALTH CONDITION.POTENTIALLY LETHAL HEALTH CONDITION.
Program AProgram A
90% SHORT-TERM 90% SHORT-TERM SURVIVAL RATESURVIVAL RATE
Program AProgram A
90% SHORT-TERM 90% SHORT-TERM SURVIVAL RATESURVIVAL RATE
Program BProgram B
100,000 PEOPLE OUT OF 100,000 PEOPLE OUT OF A MILLION WILL DIE A MILLION WILL DIE
IMMEDIATELYIMMEDIATELY
Program BProgram B
100,000 PEOPLE OUT OF 100,000 PEOPLE OUT OF A MILLION WILL DIE A MILLION WILL DIE
IMMEDIATELYIMMEDIATELY
MENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKINGMENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKING
• The Fallacy of the Small SampleThe Fallacy of the Small Sample
• Problems with probabilityProblems with probability
• The Fallacy of the Small SampleThe Fallacy of the Small Sample
• Problems with probabilityProblems with probability
Judgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and BiasesJudgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and Biases Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982 Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982
MENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKINGMENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKING
Which sequence of Which sequence of HHeads or eads or TTails is more ails is more likely?likely?
A. H T H T H T H T H T H T H TA. H T H T H T H T H T H T H T
B. H H T H T T H T T T H H H TB. H H T H T T H T T T H H H T
Which sequence of Which sequence of HHeads or eads or TTails is more ails is more likely?likely?
A. H T H T H T H T H T H T H TA. H T H T H T H T H T H T H T
B. H H T H T T H T T T H H H TB. H H T H T T H T T T H H H T
Judgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and BiasesJudgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and Biases Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982 Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982
MENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKINGMENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKING
Awareness Awareness ((The Ready Recall EffectThe Ready Recall Effect))
The The more quickly more quickly you can call something to you can call something to consciousness the more influence it has on consciousness the more influence it has on
your judgments your judgments
Awareness Awareness ((The Ready Recall EffectThe Ready Recall Effect))
The The more quickly more quickly you can call something to you can call something to consciousness the more influence it has on consciousness the more influence it has on
your judgments your judgments
Judgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and BiasesJudgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and Biases Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982 Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982
INNUMERACYINNUMERACY
Which risk is greater?Which risk is greater?1 in 100,1 in 100,
1 in 10,0001 in 10,0001 in 101 in 10
Which risk is greater?Which risk is greater?1 in 100,1 in 100,
1 in 10,0001 in 10,0001 in 101 in 10
INNUMERACYINNUMERACY
IF THE ODDS OF WINNING A LOTTERY ARE 1 IF THE ODDS OF WINNING A LOTTERY ARE 1 IN 1,000, IN 1,000,
WHAT WHAT PERCENTAGEPERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE WHO PLAY OF PEOPLE WHO PLAY THE LOTTERY WINTHE LOTTERY WIN
IF THE ODDS OF WINNING A LOTTERY ARE 1 IF THE ODDS OF WINNING A LOTTERY ARE 1 IN 1,000, IN 1,000,
WHAT WHAT PERCENTAGEPERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE WHO PLAY OF PEOPLE WHO PLAY THE LOTTERY WINTHE LOTTERY WIN
INNUMERACYINNUMERACY
IF ONE PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE WHO PLAY IF ONE PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE WHO PLAY A LOTTERY WIN, A LOTTERY WIN,
AND 1000 PEOPLE PLAY, AND 1000 PEOPLE PLAY, HOW MANY PEOPLE WIN?HOW MANY PEOPLE WIN?
IF ONE PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE WHO PLAY IF ONE PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE WHO PLAY A LOTTERY WIN, A LOTTERY WIN,
AND 1000 PEOPLE PLAY, AND 1000 PEOPLE PLAY, HOW MANY PEOPLE WIN?HOW MANY PEOPLE WIN?
INNUMERACYINNUMERACY
1. 1. Which is the bigger risk? 1 in 100, 1 in 10,000, 1 in 10 Which is the bigger risk? 1 in 100, 1 in 10,000, 1 in 10
1 IN 101 IN 10 (1 IN 5 WERE WRONG) (1 IN 5 WERE WRONG) 2. 2. 1 in 1,000, = .001, expressed as a percentage = ….1 in 1,000, = .001, expressed as a percentage = ….
.1% .1% (8 IN 10 WERE WRONG)(8 IN 10 WERE WRONG)3. 3. 1% of 1,000 = ….1% of 1,000 = ….
10 (10 (4 IN 10 WERE WRONG)4 IN 10 WERE WRONG)(80 % OF TEST SUBJECTS HAD A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA OR ABOVE.(80 % OF TEST SUBJECTS HAD A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA OR ABOVE.
1. 1. Which is the bigger risk? 1 in 100, 1 in 10,000, 1 in 10 Which is the bigger risk? 1 in 100, 1 in 10,000, 1 in 10
1 IN 101 IN 10 (1 IN 5 WERE WRONG) (1 IN 5 WERE WRONG) 2. 2. 1 in 1,000, = .001, expressed as a percentage = ….1 in 1,000, = .001, expressed as a percentage = ….
.1% .1% (8 IN 10 WERE WRONG)(8 IN 10 WERE WRONG)3. 3. 1% of 1,000 = ….1% of 1,000 = ….
10 (10 (4 IN 10 WERE WRONG)4 IN 10 WERE WRONG)(80 % OF TEST SUBJECTS HAD A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA OR ABOVE.(80 % OF TEST SUBJECTS HAD A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA OR ABOVE.
Cultural CognitionCultural Cognition
Humans are Humans are social animalssocial animals
Tribe success = Tribe success = OUR successOUR success
BIRG/ CORFBIRG/ CORF
Cultural CognitionCultural Cognition
Four basic preferences forFour basic preferences for how society is supposed to operate.how society is supposed to operate.
Individualist Individualist CommunitarianCommunitarian
Hierarchist Hierarchist Egalitarian Egalitarian
Cultural CognitionCultural CognitionRank yourself from 1 – 10. 1 means you absolutely disagree. 10 means you absolutely agree. Write Rank yourself from 1 – 10. 1 means you absolutely disagree. 10 means you absolutely agree. Write
your answers down somewhere. You‘ll need to add themyour answers down somewhere. You‘ll need to add them
1. The government interferes too much in our everyday lives.1. The government interferes too much in our everyday lives.2. Government needs to make laws that keep people from hurting themselves. 2. Government needs to make laws that keep people from hurting themselves. 3. The government should stop telling people how to live their lives. 3. The government should stop telling people how to live their lives. 4. The government should do more to advance society's goals, even if that means limiting the 4. The government should do more to advance society's goals, even if that means limiting the
freedom and choices of individuals. freedom and choices of individuals. 5. Too many people today expect society to do things for them that they should have to do for 5. Too many people today expect society to do things for them that they should have to do for
themselves. themselves. 6. People should be able to rely on the government for help when they need it. 6. People should be able to rely on the government for help when they need it. 7. Society works best when it lets individuals take responsibility for their own lives7. Society works best when it lets individuals take responsibility for their own lives without telling them what to do. without telling them what to do. 8. It's society's responsibility to make sure everyone's basic needs are met.8. It's society's responsibility to make sure everyone's basic needs are met.9. People who are successful in business have a right to enjoy their wealth as they see fit.9. People who are successful in business have a right to enjoy their wealth as they see fit.10. Taxes should be higher on the wealthy as a fair way of getting them to share the benefits 10. Taxes should be higher on the wealthy as a fair way of getting them to share the benefits
society gives them. society gives them.
Cultural CognitionCultural CognitionRank yourself from 1 – 10. 1 means you absolutely disagree. 10 means you absolutely agree. Write Rank yourself from 1 – 10. 1 means you absolutely disagree. 10 means you absolutely agree. Write
your answers down somewhere. You‘ll need to add them up.your answers down somewhere. You‘ll need to add them up.
1. Our society would be better off if the distribution of wealth was more equal. 1. Our society would be better off if the distribution of wealth was more equal. 2. Nowadays there is as much discrimination against whites as against blacks. 2. Nowadays there is as much discrimination against whites as against blacks. 3. We need to dramatically reduce inequalities between the rich and the poor, whites and people 3. We need to dramatically reduce inequalities between the rich and the poor, whites and people
of color, and men and women. of color, and men and women. 4. It seems like blacks, women, homosexuals and other groups don't want equal rights, they want 4. It seems like blacks, women, homosexuals and other groups don't want equal rights, they want
special rights just for them. special rights just for them. 5. It's old-fashioned and wrong to think that one culture's set of values is better than any other 5. It's old-fashioned and wrong to think that one culture's set of values is better than any other
culture's way of seeing the world. culture's way of seeing the world. 6. The women's rights movement has gone too far. 6. The women's rights movement has gone too far. 7. We live in a sexist society fundamentally set up to discriminate against women. 7. We live in a sexist society fundamentally set up to discriminate against women. 8. A lot of problems in our society today come from the decline in the traditional family, where the 8. A lot of problems in our society today come from the decline in the traditional family, where the
man works and the woman stays home. man works and the woman stays home. 9. Parents should encourage young boys to be more sensitive and less rough and tough. 9. Parents should encourage young boys to be more sensitive and less rough and tough. 10. Society as a whole has become too soft. 10. Society as a whole has become too soft.
Cultural CognitionCultural Cognition
More accurately predicted positions than More accurately predicted positions than liberal/conservative political self-identification liberal/conservative political self-identification on issues such as; on issues such as;
Climate change, raising the minimum wage,Climate change, raising the minimum wage, mandatory cervical cancer vaccine, mad cowmandatory cervical cancer vaccine, mad cow disease, gun control, abortion, estate tax, capitaldisease, gun control, abortion, estate tax, capital punishment, universal health care, warrantlesspunishment, universal health care, warrantless wiretapping, nuclear power, nanotechnologywiretapping, nuclear power, nanotechnology
http://www.culturalcognition.net/projects/second-national-risk-culture-study.htmlhttp://www.culturalcognition.net/projects/second-national-risk-culture-study.html
Cultural Cognition andCultural Cognition andperception of risks and benefits from perception of risks and benefits from
nanotechnologynanotechnology
For more information on For more information on Cultural Cognition…Cultural Cognition…
http://www.culturalcognition.net/