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Clean Power Evolution Large utilities –Security obstacles –Regulatory obstacles Smaller systems –Liquid fuels from oil –High renewable penetrations Micro-grids with distributed controls for reliability and efficiency 2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co
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The Economics of Wind-Diesel
Microgrids
www.homerenergy.com 2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
Peter Lilienthal2011 International Wind-Diesel Workshop
Girdwood, AlaskaMarch 10, 2011
The Future of PowerClean, distributed power with hybrid
renewables and smart micro-grids
2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
Clean Power Evolution
• Large utilities– Security obstacles – Regulatory obstacles
• Smaller systems– Liquid fuels from oil– High renewable penetrations
Micro-grids with distributed controls for reliability and efficiency
2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
Too Many ChoicesSolar
Wind
Biomass
Hydro
Geothermal
Micro-turbines
Fuel Cells
New Storage Techs.
Electric
Vehicles
Demand ResponseLoad ManagementSmart grids
Micro-grids
2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
What is best?• Depends on the application
– Resources• Especially variable and non-dispatchable renewables
– Loads– Equipment prices– Equipment performance
• A confused mind says “No!”• Requires a simple tool
– Smaller projects cannot afford complex tools
• Modeling to grow the industry2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
Introducing HOMERHybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables
1993: Developed at NREL for Village Power1998: Released to public2009: Spun off to HOMER Energy2010: First commercial version2011: Web-based version
System Architectures
Decision Support Framework
Hourly Energy Balance
Simulation
Optimization
Sensitivity Analysis
It Comes Down to Economics
• Saving oil is a more reliable business model than chasing subsidies
2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
Nom
inal
Cas
h Fl
ow ($
)
Cash Flows
Year Number
Northern Pow er NW100/19DieselSurrette 6CS25PConverter
Sensitivity
Which system is best under what conditions?
Penetration Contribution Analysis from HOMER
Molokai (8.3 meter per second wind resource)
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
0 2 4 6 8 10 12Diesel Fuel Consumption (Million liters per year)
Life
cycl
e C
ost
(US$
Mill
ions
)
High Medium Low
No Wind
2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
Foundation Costs
2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
Total installed turbine cost
$300,000
$600,000
$900,000
Wind-Diesel Cogeneration
What is the minimum fuel price for wind-diesel to be cost-effective?Does it depend on the size of the thermal load?Trade-off between waste heat from genset and dump load
Additional Insights• The challenge of renewables is not what to
do when the wind doesn’t blow. It is what to do when the wind blows too strongly
• A little bit of storage goes a long way• The highest value of storage is not load
shifting• We could have saved billions of $s killing
bad ideas quickly with more HOMER analysis
2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
Results
Business Model
Software- Free simple version- Paid SaaS modules
Community- Sharing designs and
expertise- Blog and industry news
Services- Strategic Planning
- System Design- Market Research
Custom
Training
LeadsAds
Data on user
behavior
Customer Segments
New users by month
• No connected grid– Islands– Remote applications
• Inadequate grid– Developing nations– Ultra-reliable applications– Micro-grids
• Smart grid– High renewable penetration– Storage– Electric vehicles
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000
54,000 USERS
2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
User Base Profile
193 countries
2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
Status of global microgrid marketRedesigning user surveys
Version 3
www.homerenergy.com 2334 Broadway, Suite B, Boulder, Co. 80302
2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302
Dr. Peter LilienthalCEO
(720) 565-4046
HOMEREnergy.com
