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The Economics of Populism | CFA UK Society
Page 1
Alberto Gallo, CFA
Portfolio Manager, Algebris Macro Credit Fund (UCITS), Head of Macro Strategies
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Page
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited
2
1950-1970 Rise of post-war debt-based democracies
1970-2008 Leverage, de-regulation, globalisation
2008-2017 Global QE to the rescue
2017-now Financial fragility and populism
A Story of Dreams, Greed, Fear and Hope
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Page 3
Debt-based Democracies
“Politicians are resourceful people. …
A smart politician can see that if somehow the consumption of middle-class householders
keeps rising, if they can afford a new car every few years and the occasional exotic
holiday, and best of all, a new house, they might pay less attention to their stagnant
monthly paychecks.
And one way to expand consumption, even while incomes stagnate, is to enhance access
to credit.”
Raghuram Rajan, Former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, August 2010
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Page
Financial
crisis & QE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 2017
US GDP
US total credit
Europe total credit
UK total credit
China total credit
4
The Debt Supercycle: from Fiat Money to Fiat Credit
Source: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bloomberg, FRED, PBoC. Private credit calculated as the sum of household loans, corporate loans and bonds and bank debt
Total Private Credit in US$ Trillion (lhs)
Bretton Woods
breaks downFreddie Mac created
Right to buy
Reserve
requirement
abolished (UK)
First Fannie
Mae MBS
Big Bang
(UK)
Glass-Steagall
Act repealed
Privatisation of Fannie Mae346%
GDP
261%
385%
283%
The EuroHelp to
Buy (UK)
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Page 5
Rising Inequality
"Our results suggest that the overall effect of monetary policy on standard relative
measures of income and wealth inequality has been small“
The distributional impact of monetary policy easing in the UK between 2008 and 2014,
Bank of England, March 2018
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Page 6
Rising Wealth Inequality
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Ja
pa
n
Fra
nce
Italy
UK
Cana
da
Chin
a
Germ
any
US
Bra
zil
Wo
rld
2007 2016 2018
Share of Top 1% of Wealth Holders
Since 2007
% o
f W
ealth
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook 2018 Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, FRED
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
Corporate Profits After Tax/ GDP (LHS)
Wages and Salaries/ GDP (RHS)
Corporate Profit vs. Wages as
Percentage of GDP
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Page 7
The American Dream is Broken
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, The Equality of Opportunity Project
The Fading American DreamFraction of children earning less than their parents, by birth year
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Page 8
Income Inequality – The Elephant In the Room
The American Dream is Broken
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Cu
mu
lative
gro
wth
ra
te (
%)
Global Income Percentile
Global Growth Incidence Curve, 1988-2008Increase in real income by percentile of global income distribution
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, The World Bank (Dec 2013)
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Page 9
Corporate Inequality
The American Dream is Broken
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
90th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile
Pe
rce
nt (%
)
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Share of Total Firms (LHS)
Share of Total Employment (RHS)
Pe
rce
nt (%
) Pe
rce
nt (%
)
Return on Invested Capital (including Goodwill)
US Publicly-traded Non-financial Firms
Young Firms as a Share of the Economy
1982 - 2015
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, Furman J., Market Concentration , OECD (May 2018)Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, Furman J., Market Concentration , OECD (May 2018)
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Page 10
Inequality and the Politics of Rage
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, the National Association of Community Health Centers, UK Government, Bloomberg, Eurostat, ECB, World Wealth and Income Debate.*Cylus, J., Papanicolas I., An analysis of perceived access to health care in Europe: How universal is
universal coverage?, Health Policy 119 (2015), July 2015; Cobb, J., Lin, K., Gabriel, P., Growing Apart: The Changing Firm-Size Wage Effect and Its Inequality Consequences, 27 May 2016
Homeownership Education
Inequality Age
Wages/Income Wealth/Assets
Technology GlobalisationQE/Monetary Policy
Politics
Median value of owned financial
assets in Euro area: €5k for
people aged below 35 vs €18k for
55-64
- The poor are 5 times
more likely than the
wealthy to have access
barriers to health care
across Europe*
- In the US, almost a
fifth of children under
17 year live in poverty
- 3.7mn of children are
living in poverty in the
UK
Health
UK homeownership rate:
73% in 2008 vs 64% now;
35% for people aged 25-
34 vs 69% for 65-74
- 20%-33% of students at Harvard, Princeton or Yale,
had parents you attended the same college.
- 0.8% Oxbridge graduates are 75% of Senior Judges
and 38% of Lords in the UK.
The top 1% households own
20% of total personal wealth
in the UK, 22% in France
and 37% in the US
The top 1% income earners
account for 8% of total income in
France, 13% in the UK and 13% in
Germany
Automation, sharing
mean wage
polarisation
Outsourcing of
manufacturing jobs Wealth effects favouring asset
owners
Overall
unemployment
Youth
unemployment*
Spain 19% 43%
Italy 12% 40%
France 10% 26%
Germany 4% 7%
*Youth = aged below 25
Fragile Society
Corporates
An employee of a company
with > 500 employees could
typically earn 30%–50% more
than someone doing the same
at a 25-person company
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Page 11
The Rise of Populism
“The price paid by good men for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men.”
Plato
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Page 12
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited
UK/Brexit US/Trump
1. Dream
2. Enemy
3. Policies
Results
Economic
Political
Foreign
Domestic
Militarism
Nationalism
Protectionism
Large deficits
Resource misallocation
Rising public debt
Financial Repression
(Inflation, Taxes & War)
£350mn a week Revive manufacturing
Take back control MAGA
Europe Mexico, China, NK
Immigration
Spain/Gibraltar/Russia
Wall, Buy American
Tariffs Border Adjustment Tax
Immigration
Defence spending
Tax haven
The Populist Playbook
Italy/5S & NL
Jobs
Contract with Italians
EU/ECB
UBI
Flat tax
Immigration
Police spending
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Page
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, Dornbusch, R. and Edwards, S., The Macro Economics of Populism in Latin America (1991)
13
The Populist Trap: An Economic Tragedy in Four Acts
Pre-conditions
• Inequality
• Disenfranchised regions and parts of the population
• Implosion of the political centre
• Immigration issues
1. Conviction
• High public support
• Fully vindicated in their policies
• Economic expansion without high inflation
2. Bottlenecks
• Demand expansion constrained by supply-side issues
• Rising inflation
• Worsening trade balances
• Rising public debt and deficit
3. Crisis
• Confidence waning
• Currency depreciation accelerating
• Capital flight
• Rapidly rising public debt and deficit
4. Orthodox Stabilisation
• Orthodox policies take over
• IMF programme
• Painful adjustments to stabilise
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Page
Johnson
TrumpErdogan
Corbyn
MacriMacron
Haddad
AMLO
OrbánSalvini
Di Maio
Merkel
14
Populism
The Populist Playbook
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited
Populist
Reformist
Right-Wing EconomicsLeft-Wing Economics
Maduro
Rivera
Åkesson
BolsonaroMalema
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Page 15
Italy and the UK
Lamp-Wick “In the Land of Toys, every day, except Sunday, is a Saturday”
Pinocchio: “And if the Fairy scolds me?”
Lamp-Wick: “Let her scold. After she gets tired, she will stop.”
Pinocchio, Carlo Collodi, 1940
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Page 16
Fragile Politics
Geographical Income and Political Polarisation
Source: FT
2018 Italian Elections: Leading Party by Region
Source: University of Oxford
2016 Brexit Referendum: Remain vs Leave
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Fragile Politics
17
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, Eurostat, Italian Government Ministry of the Interior
2018 Italian Elections: % M5S Votes vs GDP per Capita
Inequality Provides Fertile Ground for Populism
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, UK Census, Office for National Statistics
Piemonte
Valle d'Aosta/Vallé
e d'Aoste
Liguria
Lombardia
Provincia Autonoma di
Trento
Veneto
Friuli-Venezia Giulia
Emilia-Romagna
Toscana
Umbria
Marche
Lazio
Abruzzo
Molise
Campania
Puglia
Basilicata
Calabria
Sicilia
Sardegna
R² = 0.8482
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
% Votes to M5S
GDP per capita, Euro
The Demographics That Drove Brexit
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Page 18
Overhangs: Is Italy’s Debt Sustainable?
Fragile Debt Dynamics: Italy
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, IMF, Bloomberg.*Assuming an average annual primary surplus of 1.47% of GDP (long-run average for Italy since 1988); assuming 10% of total debt will be refinance every year.
Italy Debt to GDP Ratio in 5 Years in Different Growth and Yield Scenarios
Red Cells = Debt to GDP Ratio > 130%
Average Annual Nominal GDP growth
Yie
ld C
ha
ng
e
-5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
-1.0% 187% 177% 168% 159% 151% 143% 136% 129% 122% 116% 110%
-0.5% 188% 178% 169% 160% 152% 144% 137% 130% 123% 117% 111%
0.0% 189% 179% 170% 161% 153% 145% 138% 131% 124% 118% 112%
0.5% 191% 181% 171% 162% 154% 146% 138% 131% 125% 119% 113%
1.0% 192% 182% 172% 163% 155% 147% 139% 132% 126% 119% 114%
1.5% 193% 183% 173% 164% 156% 148% 140% 133% 127% 120% 114%
2.0% 195% 184% 175% 166% 157% 149% 141% 134% 127% 121% 115%
2.5% 196% 185% 176% 167% 158% 150% 142% 135% 128% 122% 116%
3.0% 197% 187% 177% 168% 159% 151% 143% 136% 129% 123% 117%
3.5% 198% 188% 178% 169% 160% 152% 144% 137% 130% 124% 117%
4.0% 200% 189% 179% 170% 161% 153% 145% 138% 131% 124% 118%
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Page 19
Socio-economic Imbalances Grow
Fragile Politics: UK
6th highest income inequality amongst OECD members
7% privately educated Britons are:
- 71% of senior judges
- 55% of Permanent Secretaries
- 53% of Senior Diplomats
- 50% of Lords
- 44% of the Sunday Time’s ‘Rich List’
- 43% of Columnists
- 35% of the National Rugby Team
Top 1% of earners pay 27% of tax
45% of Britons from the top income quartile remain in this bracket
12% only of those in the lowest income quartile ever migrate to the highest quartile
Nobles own 1/3 of the land, nearly 30% of children live near the poverty line
Source: Algebris Investments (UK) LLP, “Elitist Britain?” UK Gov
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Page 20
Policy and Investment in Times of Populism
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Fed Tightening Cycles End in a Burst
21
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg
'29Wall St crash
'37Fed
"policy mistake"
'70Penn
CentralBK
'74 Franklin Natl
BK
'82LatAm debt
'87Stock market crash '90
S&Lcrisis
'94Tequilacrisis
'00Tech
bubble
'97Asia/
Russia/LTCM
'07Subprime
crisis
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
'15 '21 '27 '33 '39 '45 '51 '57 '63 '69 '75 '81 '87 '93 '99 '05 '11 '17
US Fed Funds target rate, %
Equity volatility
EM crisis
BTP
A History of Bubbles
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The End of QE
Bye Bye QE (for now)
22
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, Bloomberg, central bank websites
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fed ECB BoJ BoE 12m chg (RHS)
G4 Central Bank Balance Sheets, $tn
Stock
Flow
Projections
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Page
Fragility: Nature, Policy and Markets
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited. With reference and inspiration from Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder, N. N. Taleb (2013)
23
Fragility is Common, Anti-Fragility Rare
Fragile Robust Anti-Fragile
Medicine Anaesthesia Vaccine Mithridatism
Pension System Defined Benefits Defined Contributions Social Shock Absorbers
Technology Centralised Hard Drive Underground Storage Cloud Storage
Mythology Damocles Ulysses Hydra
Nature Dinosaurs Land Turtle Ant Colony/Bacteria
Objects Tea Set Anvil Spring
Financial MarketsPassive Investing/Herding
Financial
Engineering/Complexity
Active Management Tail Risk Strategies
Monetary Policy Forward Guidance Rule-Based Approach Macro-prudential Policy
Capital Structure Debt Equity AT1
Sovereign DebtHard Currency External
DebtDomestic Currency Debt Growth-Linked Debt
Economic Agents Politicians RegulatorsLong-Term/Contrarian
Investors
Government Structure Eurozone Singapore Switzerland
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Page 24
QE and ZIRP/NIRP at the Base of the Carry Trade Pyramid
$2tn Short Vol Strategies
$8tn High-Dividend/Growth Equity
$11tn IG/HY Credit$2tn EM Hard Currency Credit
$12tn Sovereign Debt at <1% Yield*
$21tn Central Bank Balance SheetsZIRP/QE
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, Bloomberg. *Data sourced from GS
Debt, QE and Low Volatility
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Page 25
From QE to Markets
Low Volatility and Asset Bubbles
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited
How Loose Monetary Policy Has Reduced Risk Premia and Volatility
Search for yield
QE
Lower sovereign
yields
Anticipation of more QE to
mitigate volatility reversal
(Buy on dips)
Reduced rates
volatility
Sell volatility
strategies
Low volatility trap
Portfolio
rebalancing
Lower credit
spreads
Lower credit
volatility
Compressed
volatility risk
premium
Slow monetary
normalisation
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Page
10 years
ago
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, Bloomberg, GS Research.
(1) ASW Spread for ICE BofAML US High Yield Index. 10 year range. (2) Spread of 10y5y UST yield and spread of 10y5y US CPI inflation (3) As of YE 17 (4) Assumed flat fixed 100bps AuM Fees over 10 year period. (5) ASW Spread for ICE BofAML Euro Corporate
Index. 10 year range.
26
% Passive
Strategies3
Equity Implied
Volatility (VIX)
HY Credit
Spreads1
Term
Premium2
(10Yr UST)
Equity Risk
Premium3
Price Earnings
(S&P)
100%
0%
24x
12x
100
10
1300bps
290bps
3.6%
-1.0%
6.0%
0%
38%
18.8x
24.1
325bps
0.06%
3.9%
17%
Now
13.9x
80 1093bps
1.6%
1.8%
AuM Fees4
% of Yield5
50%
0%
30.4%
8.1%
Debt, QE and Low Volatility
Investing in Times of Populism
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Binary Markets
Fragility
27
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, Bloomberg
Length of High-Vol Periods
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Periods during which VIX>20 VIX Index
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, Bloomberg
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 >60
Pre QE
Post QE
Longer periods
of low
volatility…
… but also a fatter tail
of very high volatility
Proportion of Days When VIX Falls in the Range
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Page 28
Conclusions: Reforms and Revolutions
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Intra-EZ trade
boost % GDP
effect, 2017
Extra-EZ Trade
boost
% GDP effect, 2017
Interest saving
% 2017 GDP
Total gains as
% 2017 GDP
Germany 0.7% 4.3% 3.1% 8.1%
France 1.0% -1.3% 4.6% 4.3%
Spain 1.3% -2.6% 4.8% 3.5%
Italy 0.8% -3.0% 4.8% 2.6%
The ECB and The Eurozone
29
The EZ: A Positive-Sum Game, but Gains Are Unevenly Split
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited estimates, Eurostat, ECB, OECD, IMF, World Bank, national statistics agencies, Bloomberg
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Page 30
Reforms
and
Revolutions
Rising
inequality
Growing
populism
Job
automation
Greater fiscal
spending
Lower inflation &
looser monetary
policy
Artificial
intelligence
Polarisation in skills, jobs
and income
Environment
Reforms or Revolutions?
A New Equilibrium
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Page 31
Reforms and Revolutions
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited
Past Now
Economic theories built on
assumptions of efficient markets,
unlimited natural resources and
growing populations
Markets are inefficient
Limited resources, both natural and
economic
Ageing and shrinking populations
Economics
Technology/
Job markets
Society/
Politics
Conclusions: A New Equilibrium
Technology boosts productivity
Growth always creates new jobs
Wage growth and affordable
housing
Trade deals and globalisation
Automation/A.I./sharing economy
Jobless growth, income polarisation
and lower wage growth
Low interest rates resource
misallocation low productivity
low quality & paid jobs
Phillips curve no longer working?
Asset appreciation > wage growth
Rising inequality Populism & more
inefficiencies / nationalism and
protectionism
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Page 32
Reforms and Revolutions
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited
Past Now
Western powers influence /
dominate / dictate
Emerging Powers: China, India, Middle
East. Terrorism and nuclear threatsGeopolitics
Fiscal
policy
Monetary
policy
Conclusions: A New Equilibrium
Recession fiscal stimulus
multiplier effect
“Trickle Down”
Recession lower interest rates
credit growth higher
investment and consumption
High public debt limited room for
spending
Balance sheet recession investment
and consumption no longer responsive
to interest rates given over-leverage;
consumers look at permanent future
income: low interest rates depress
savings and spending
Low interest rates today
growth and inflation high
interest rates in the future
Low interest rates today asset
bubbles and growing inequality, wage
stagnation/hysteresis, financial fragility
low interest rates in the future
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Page 33
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited. “Ulysses and the Sirens”, Painting by J. W. Waterhouse, oil on canvas, 1891.
Ulysses and the Sirens
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Page 35
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- Jobst A., Lin H., The ECB’s Negative Rate Policy Has Been Effective but Faces Limits, IMF, 10 August 2016
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- Haldane, A. G., The Great Divide, Bank of England, 18 May 2016
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- Jones, R., Innovation, research and the UK’s productivity crisis, The University of Sheffield, April 2016
- Standard & Poor’s, QE and Economic Inequality: The UK Experience, 10 February 2016
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