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The Economics of
NBA Star Power Digital Humanities 150
Final Project
Matt Fisher
March 13, 2013
Research Question
• What is an NBA player’s value to his franchise and which NBA player is the most valuable* to his franchise?
• *Valuable algorithm:
Salary
Production
Legacy
Social Significance
Background
• Global market for sports (especially basketball) is growing rapidly ▫ Sports analysis and journalism growing too
• Index of player value would benefit fans and General Managers alike
• What is value of a player to a team/franchise/city?
• Social significance a fact but does not solely determine if Player A or B is better
• No index or award encompasses it all
The Players
• 1 Lebron James • 2 Kevin Durant • 3 Dwight Howard • 4 Chris Paul • 5 Derrick Rose • 6 Kobe Bryant • 7 Kevin Love • 8 Dwyane Wade • 9 Russell Westbrook • 10 Deron Williams
• As determined by ESPN Player Rank survey • 104 Basketball Experts
ranked every NBA player on 10 pt scale
• Experts from ESPN.com, the TrueHoop Network, TrueHoop TV, Daily Dime Live, ESPN TV, ESPN Radio, ESPN Deportes, espnW, ESPN The Magazine, ESPN Insider, ESPN Fantasy, ESPN Games, ESPN Dallas, ESPN Los Angeles, ESPN Chicago, ESPN New York, ESPN Stats & Information, ESPN Topics and ESPN Analytics
Methodology • 23 Variables • Each player evaluated relative on a 10 point scale
• Data examined & reviewed in 4 categories ▫ Salary, Production, Legacy
Hand-picked statistics ▫ Social Value
Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Klout, Television, Economic Impact
Methodology
• Data analysis
▫ The Algorithm
1 Salary Variable
Weighted 20%
5 Production Variables
Weighted 35%
6 Legacy Variables
Weighted 15%
11 Social Variables
Weighted 30%
▫ Every Variable ranked 1-10 Some weighted more than
others Ex. NBA Championships more
influential than Olympic Medals
▫ 3 Methods of Evaluation Relative Rank (1-10)
Ex. PPG, Jersey Sales, Twitter Followers
Percentage Rank (1-10) Ex. Salary, Endorsement
All or Nothing (0, 5, or 10) Ex. Attendance, franchise
revenue
Salaries
League Rank
Player Team 2013 Salary
1 Kobe Bryant Los Angeles Lakers $27,849,149
5 Dwight Howard Miami Heat $19,536,360
8 Chris Paul Oklahoma City Thunder $17,779,458
10 Lebron James Miami Heat $17,545,000
11 Dwyane Wade Los Angeles Clippers $17,182,000
12 Deron Williams Chicago Bulls $17,177,795
15 Kevin Durant Oklahoma City Thunder $16,669,629
18 Derrick Rose Los Angeles Lakers $16,402,500
24 Russell Westbrook Minnesota Timberwolves $13,668,793
25 Kevin Love Brooklyn Nets $13,668,750
Production
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
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2013PointsPerGameCareerPointsPerGame
*Statistics from 2011-2012 season due to injury
• On the court impact of a player on any given game
• What statistics make a basketball player “good” on the court? • Points Per Game • Assists Per Game • Rebounds Per Game • Plus/Minus • Game-Winning Shots
Legacy • A player’s historic
value • What quantitative
values convey historic significance? ▫ All-Star Selections ▫ All-NBA Team
Selections ▫ NBA
Championships ▫ League MVPs ▫ Olympic Medals ▫ Career Points Per
Game
•1 NBA Championship •8 All Star Selections •3 Olympic Medals
Lebron James
•0 NBA Championships •4 All Star Selections •2 Olympic Medals
Kevin Durant
•0 NBA Championships •7 All Star Selections •1 Olympic Medal
Dwight Howard
•0 NBA Championships •6 All Star Selections •2 Olympic Medals
Chris Paul
•0 NBA Championships •3 All Star Selections •0 Olympic Medals
Derrick Rose
•5 NBA Championships •14 All Star Selections •2 Olympic Medals
Kobe Bryant
•0 NBA Championships • 2 All Star Selections • 1 Olympic Medal
Kevin Love
•2 NBA Championships •9 All Star Selections •2 Olympic Medals
Dwyane Wade
•0 NBA Championships •3 All Star Selections •1 Olympic Medal
Russell Westbrook
•0 NBA Championships •3 All Star Selections •2 Olympic Medals
Deron Williams
Legacy
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16L
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am
es
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All Star Selections
All NBA TeamSelections
League MVP
*Career Totals
Social Value • How important is this player to fans? • Player popularity, team media coverage, all franchise benefit are all
interconnected • How do we quantify a player’s social influence on his team?
▫ Twitter Twitter followers User mentions on NBA Twitter Account
▫ Facebook Facebook fans Facebook talking about*
▫ Klout Rank among NBA players
▫ Youtube Views of most popular video
▫ Endorsement Earnings ▫ Jersey Sales ▫ Nationally Televised Games ▫ Team Attendance ▫ Team Revenue
*Like a page, post on the page wall, like a post, comment on a post, share a post, answer a question, RSVP to a page’s event, mention the page in a post, tag the page in a photo, check in at a place, share a check-in deal, like a check-in deal, write a recommendation, claim an offer
Social Value
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
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Klout Rank Jersey Sales Rank
0
5
10
15
20
25
Leb
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Nationally Televised Games 2013
Twitter Analysis • NBA Account
▫ UserMentions per 2,000 tweets
• Twitter API
▫ List csv UserMentions
UserMentions
Lebron James Kevin Durant
Dwight Howard Chris Paul
Derrick Rose Kobe Bryant
Kevin Love Dwyane Wade
Russell Westbrook Deron Williams
Twitter Analysis
• Activity level of Twitter database based off Twitter API • Total tweets and date of last tweet
from NBA account followers
440
461
443 199
775
Users By Total Tweets
0 to 10
10 to 100
100 to 500
500 to1000
0.00%5.00%
10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%
Last 24Hours
LastWeek
Last 2Weeks
LastMonth
Last 3Months
Last 6Months
Last 1Year
> 1Year
Followers by Date of Last Tweet
Facebook Analysis
• Fan Page Interaction
▫ Engagement in last week
Likes, Comments, and Posts
Facebook Analysis
02,000,0004,000,0006,000,0008,000,000
10,000,00012,000,00014,000,00016,000,000
Leb
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Fan Page Likes
050,000
100,000150,000
200,000250,000
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Fan Page Talking About
Visualization
• 3D Funnel representing weighted averages of each category
• Web graphic call out for social value section • Weighted average of each social
category
NBA Player
Production
Social Value
Legacy
Salary
Player Index
Findings
Rank Player Salary Index
Production Index
Legacy Index
Social Index
Total Weighted Average
1 Kobe Bryant 10 7.65 7.663 8.168 8.27735
2 Lebron James 6.3 8.25 7.625 9.76 8.21925
3 Kevin Durant 5.99 7.95 3.213 7.08 6.58645
4 Dwyane Wade 6.17 5.35 4.838 7.21 5.9952
5 Chris Paul 6.38 4.375 2.838 5.576 4.90575
6 Derrick Rose 5.89 3.95 2.075 5.208 4.43415
7 Russell Westbrook 4.91 3.6 0.913 6.01 4.3629
8 Dwight Howard 7.02 2.2 2.538 5.488 4.2011
9 Kevin Love 4.91 5.2 2.038 4.184 4.18195
10 Deron Williams 6.17 3.575 2.088 2.924 3.67565
Limitations of Data Analysis
• Subjectivity ▫ Calculated variability in assumptions of weight per
category and categories selected Winning games most important
10% more important than social value
• Relativity ▫ Amplified discrepancy between player ratings due to
comparison against each other
• Variability ▫ Length of career, team location, quality of teammates,
length of contract all affect player index ratings
Conclusions and Recommendations • 3 Strata of Star Power
▫ Kobe and Lebron far more valuable than rest of league Negligible difference between top two
• Applications of current research ▫ Franchise leverage/connect with social media of athletes ▫ Input for negotiations of athlete salary ▫ Social value reflects fan input- pro sports exist for the fans
• Recommendations for future research ▫ Conduct statistical analysis to determine which differences in player Value are
significant and the impact of different social media options ▫ Study franchise revenue and determine correlation to player Value findings (does
franchise of the highest player value bring in highest revenue) ▫ Sensitivity Analysis regarding weight levels of criteria (test different weight levels)
and qualitative research on fan perceptions of algorithm results ▫ Expansion
Impact on franchise economics relative to home games vs. road games (does social media translate to more value at home or away)
Survey and interview to determine economic impact for cities that host professional athletic arenas (Oklahoma City decision to bring in Seattle team)