The economics of biofuels, food and the environment David Zilberman, Deepak Rajagopal, Steven...
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The economics of biofuels, food and the environment David Zilberman, Deepak Rajagopal, Steven Sexton, Gal Hochman and Teresa Serra Presented in the S-1043 regional Research Group- Impacts of trade and Domestic Polices on Competitiveness and Performance of Southern Agriculture Research leading to this study was supported by the
The economics of biofuels, food and the environment David Zilberman, Deepak Rajagopal, Steven Sexton, Gal Hochman and Teresa Serra Presented in the S-1043
The economics of biofuels, food and the environment David
Zilberman, Deepak Rajagopal, Steven Sexton, Gal Hochman and Teresa
Serra Presented in the S-1043 regional Research Group-Impacts of
trade and Domestic Polices on Competitiveness and Performance of
Southern Agriculture Research leading to this study was supported
by the EBI and USDA ERS
Slide 2
Over View Background On the relationship between oil and energy
Some numbers R&D productivity and biotech Biofuels and the
environment-LCA Biofuel and the future of agriculture
Slide 3
Biofuel And the Food Market-short term analysis Crop Quantity $
Food Demand Supply Joint Demand Biofuel Demand Ag Expansion Supply
w/ GMO Market for Food and Energy Crops $ Quantity
Slide 4
The Basic Economics of Biofuel Introduction of Biofuels:
Increased food prices; and Reduces food availability The effects
can be countered by: Increased agricultural and conversion
productivity Second generation biofuels Ag Biotech
Slide 5
Biofuel impacts depend on responsiveness of quantities to
prices The less responsive fuel quantities are to fuel price
changes higher will be the impact of ethanol on gasoline price The
more responsive food quantities are to food price changes lesser
will be the impact of ethanol on food price Therefore we estimate
the impact on prices under three different scenarios of
responsiveness of supply and demand
Slide 6
Three scenarios with three sets of elasticities
Slide 7
About the Scenarios High scenario: Inelastic gas demand and
supply; Elastic corn, soy demand and supply Low scenario: Elastic
gas demand and supply; Inelastic corn, soy demand and supply Mid
scenario: In between High scenario should have the highest benefits
due to biofuel consumption while the low scenario should have the
least benefits
Slide 8
Simulating the impact of US biofuel on food and gas prices
HighMidLow Change in gas price-2.3%-1.8%-1.4% Change in corn
price18%24%39% Change in soy price11%15%24% Average US gasoline
price in 2007 - $2.84 per gallon Average US corn price in 2007 -
$4.72 per bushel Average US soybean price in 2007- $10.34 per
bushel Changes show what actual prices were compared to a scenario
that would have existed if there were no biofuels
Slide 9
Net benefits to producers of corn and soy due to US ethanol
supply in 2007
Slide 10
Net benefits to consumers in the US from US ethanol supply in
2007 (net of subsidy)
Slide 11
Net benefits to ROW consumers from US ethanol supply in
2007
Slide 12
Net change in consumer and ag. producer surplus (net of
subsidy) Note: Does not include change in surplus for gasoline
producers And the environment
Slide 13
Impact of Opec This analysis ignored the fact that opec is a
cartel of nation Considering OPEC the impacts of biofuel- The price
effect is smaller (-1`%) than under competition But less gasoline
is consumed- OPEC reduces supply A significant GHG reduction
effect
Slide 14
Biofuel Policies: subsidies and mandate Subsidies- in the US,of
about$.50/gallon, provide extra incentive to invest in biofuels
They tend to increase demand for feed stock Increase price of food
Reduce food availability Because of a tariff - the subsidy is not
available to foreign provider of biofuel- Brazil But brazil
subsidies is own growers When food demand is sufficiently high even
with subsidy it curtails biofuel production- safety valve for food
and source of instability to industry
Slide 15
Crop Price Oil Price Initial Breakeven line With subsidy With
subsidy and increase in production efficiency P0P0 P1P1 P2P2 Gas
price High subsidy will make biofuel profitable at higher food
prices or lower gas prices PGPG
Slide 16
Biofuel is not profitable with subsidy and food shortage Crop
Quantity Price Market for Food and Energy Crops Past : Elastic
Biofuel Demand DFDF S0S0 DFDF E0E0 P0P0 Q0Q0 Ds
Slide 17
Biofuel will be produced with mandates Regard less of fuel
demand Crop Quantity Now : Inelastic demand from Biofuel Mandate
E0E0 E1E1 D T1 D RFS Biofuel Mandate Demand D T1 New Total Demand E
1 New Equilibrium D RFS P0P0 Q0Q0 P1P1 Q1Q1 Biofuel produced
because of mandate raises crop price
Slide 18
Factor affecting ethanol price dynamics in US Ethanol prices
will grow with corn ( sugar) prices Subsidies and supply
restricting tariffs Gasoline prices Mandates size They will decline
with Fuel taxes Ethanol prices may in turn affect the dynamics of
gasoline and corn prices We tried to trace the dynamic adjustment
between gasoline, ethanol and corn in the US
Slide 19
Dynamic analysis of of co-evolution of corn ethanol and
gasoline prices We used an threshold-vector error correction models
(TVECM) With data from Nebraska in the US. TVECM assume that the
transitions are abrupt and discontinuous- affected by heterogeneity
and transaction costs that results in lag structures that are
estimated. They assume a evolved equilibrium The weighted
adjustment function G( ) is nonlinear function depend on dynamic
variation in the system
Slide 20
The prices of biofuel relative to fuel and food
Slide 21
The Relative weight of lagged corn and Gasoline price in
changing ethanol prices Gasoline matters
Slide 22
Results of econometrics analysis The price of ethanol is
positively related to corn and gasoline prices. The change in
weight of corn or gasoline price is non linear in response to
shocks Ethanol responses to gasoline price shocks are quicker than
reactions to corn price changes. These latter however are bigger in
magnitude. Weight of Gasoline prices increased in the 2000s Ethanol
prices Peak when mandates are binding (MTBE 2006) During the 2000s
when gasoline prices rose ethanol was priced above gasoline when
corn price was declining and above it when corn prices was
rising
Slide 23
The impact of adverse food supply shock on biofuel Adverse food
market shocks (inventory demand, lower supply)-make corn biofuel
unprofitable- may lead to bankruptcies- industry in inherently
ubstable
Slide 24
Food and the Volatility of biofuels prices- Corn and wheat
etahnol and palm biodiesel became unprofitable because of higher
food prices in 2007-8 Sugar cane ethanol is still profitable- sugar
price less volatile- essential value proposition is better Refiners
lost money buying feed stocks Second generation may be competing
with food crops on resources but the volatility because of multiple
use may not be there But contract payment will have to take into
account the price variability of competing ( in terms fo land) food
crops
Slide 25
Short term vs long term price effects of biofuels The impacts
of biofuel on food prices has been accumulating The 16-40 %
increases we attribute to biofuel based on short tem elasticities
are lower bounds Continuing shortages, negative supply shocks (
Australia) and expectation for higher price may push for 50-70%
price effects as suggested by the world bank But small changes in
supply relieving the pressure could have done wonders
Slide 26
Not all crops are alike
Slide 27
Rice yields increase in 70s because of Green Revolution; they
have stagnated in recent years Look at inventories-they declined
leading to price pressure
Slide 28
Wheat also benefited from Green Revolution and has seen little
productivity growth of late. Years 1970-2007-source FAO
Slide 29
Sorghum is the food of the poor. It has experienced little
increase in yields and a decline in inventories
Slide 30
Soybean has benefited from GMO Despite rise in acres yield per
acre increased
Slide 31
Cotton sees sharp increase in productivity growth around 2000
due to GMO
Slide 32
Corn US:yield increased recently. GMO?
Slide 33
Greater Productivity Growth In Top- Producing Countries That
Adopt GMO Countries that Adopted GMONon-GMO Countries Yields in
India double with biotech Its no wonder Brazil sees considerable
yield gains
Slide 34
Crops with high adoption of GMO did better Cotton and corn fare
better than wheat and rice Productivity enhancement is essential to
restore reasonable eqilibrium Short term use all the tools that
work Long term invest more in ag research
Slide 35
Biofuel and Climate Change Biofuel is not fully
renewable-energy is needed for producing inputs, production and
processing. Processing may lead some biofuels to emits 18% more GHG
than gasoline (tar sand emit 1.5 GHG that Saudi oil) US Corn
ethanol meets between 40% less to 20% more than gasoline- but it
better than tar sands Sugarcane ethanol emits 60% less than oil
much less than corn. Wheat ethanol is worse than Corn, palm oil for
biodiesel much better But impact of Biofuels on climate change is
difficult to figure out leading to methodological studies with
policy implication Key tool life cycle analysis which distinguished
between direct and indirect effects
Slide 36
Based on EBAMM data of Farrell et al. (Science 2006) Direct
emissions - Lifecycle of corn ethanol in US
Slide 37
Illustration - GHG impact of fuel switching by biorefineries (
based on Farrel et-al ) Switching to pure coal based biorefining
reduces GHG benefits by 50%, while switching to pure gas based
biorefining increases GHG benefits by 130% compared to average
case
Slide 38
Illustration - GHG impact of fuel switching in fertilizer
production Switching to pure coal based nitrogen fertilizer reduces
GHG benefits by 63% compared to average case
Slide 39
Illustration Combined effect There is a net increase in GHG
emissions and so there corn ethanol is worse than gasoline A
greater than 100% reduction in net GHG displacement implies overall
increase in emissions compared to baseline
Slide 40
LCA ignores behavior No induce innovation Minimal attention to
heterogeneity No input substitution in response to price changes No
learning by doing No capacity to deal with impacts of policies
Slide 41
Direct emissions Baseline: Emissions from Farrell et al.
(Science 2006) Scenario 1: Coal based biorefining all else equal to
Baseline Scenario 2: Natural gas based biorefining all else equal
to Baseline Scenario 4: NG gas based biorefining, 39% improvement
in corn yield, 25% reduction in energy for processing and all else
equal to Baseline Learning by doing result in increased numbers of
with highre processing efficiency so average emission is declining
for the same mix of fuel Gasoline 94 gCO 2 e/MJ
Slide 42
Indirect Emissions Emissions accompanying induced expansion or
intensification of agriculture Example of extensification is
induced conversion of non-cropland such as pastures or forestland
to agriculture Example of intensification is greater use of
energy-intensive inputs like fertilizers in response to increase in
output prices Unlike direct emissions they cannot be traced to a
single biofuel producer and they may occur at locations far away
from a biofuel production site
Slide 43
Indirect Emissions These effects arise from interaction of
markets for several commodities and across the globe Land may not
be converted directly to be planted with bioenergy crop but planted
to a crop displaced by biofuel crop Corn displaces soy in US
Reduction in soy exports from US Increase in soy acreage in Brazil
displacing pastures Forest cleared in Brazil for pasture land
Results in release of carbon stored in trees/soil
Slide 44
Mandate of 56 billion liters of ethanol in US (assumed to be
corn based) 140 million tonnes of corn @ 2.7 gallons of ethanol per
bushel of corn Global agricultural acreage to expand by 10.8
million hectares Searchinger et al.s estimate
Slide 45
Between 1950 and 1998, global agricultural output increased
150% while harvested acreage increased only 13% implying
elasticity, i.e, historically when output increased by 100% land
under agriculture increased by 9% Using this value, expansion is
3.3 million hectares Alternative calculation Land use change can be
hypothesized using historical data on elasticity of acreage with
respect to output
Slide 46
Indirect emissions *: Back of envelope calculation based on
aggregate elasticity of acreage between 1950 and 1998.
Disaggregating elasticities into smaller time periods and for
different crops actually shows variation in elasticities. Needs
further investigation
Slide 47
Biofuels and GHG emission Scenario 1: Coal based biorefining
(increases direct emissions) Scenario 2: Natural gas based
biorefining (lowers direct emissions) Scenario 3: NG based
biorefining and Indirect emissions equal to 1/3rd of Searchinger et
al.s estimate Scenario 4: NG gas based biorefining, 39% improvement
in corn yield, 25% reduction in energy for processing and indirect
emissions equaling 1/3rd of Searchinger et al.s estimate Gasoline
94 gCO 2 e/MJ Controlling direct & indirect emissions is
crucial
Slide 48
There are many indirect effects of biofuel OPEC effect -biofuel
reduces OPEC productionmor- reduces GHG Tar-sand effect-biofuel
reduces price of oil reduces incentives to Tar sand- and GHG
Learning by doing improved technology Concentrating on one indirect
effect is not good policy
Slide 49
GHG of biofuel depends on policy Low carbon fuel standards
(LFCS) generates less GHG than Renewable fuel standards (RFS)+
Mandates LCFS may reduce introduction of tar sand Carbon taxes or
cap and trade-are more efficient- Will induce adoption of biofuel
if carbon price is high ALSO-Trigger Pollution reducing innovations
But require Political will Monitoring and enforcement effort
Slide 50
Lifecycle numbers are function of policy A policy such as
carbon tax that increases the relative price of coal could lower
the intensity of coal use in production of biofuel and lower the
carbon footprint * Baseline is direct emissions for corn ethanol
from Farrell et al. (Science 2006)
Slide 51
First and Second Generation biofuels If processors have to meet
higher environmental standards it will reduce the amount paid for
biofuel. Payment for environmental contributions at the farm level
(carbon sequestration, residue reduction) is likely to affect crop
and technology choicesand the geographic distribution of biofuel
crops But whatever we do, productivity matters. Except of sugar
cane, sweet sorghum, and some oil crops, the first generation of
biofuels have limited capacity to address climate change concerns.
We need to be able to process celluloids.
Slide 52
Productivity Matters CROPHarvest- able Biomass (tons/ acre)
Ethanol (gal/acr e) Million acres needed for 35 billion gallons of
ethanol % 2006 harvested US cropland 5 Corn grain 1 45007025.3 Corn
stover 2 330010538.5 Corn Total78004015.3 Prairie220021075.1
Switch- grass66006020.7 Miscanthus171700185.8 Source:Steve
Long
Slide 53
Food security is the major concern Solutions Food aid fund
Smaller ( flexible mandates) Supply expansion in a sustainable (and
non exploitive way) High food prices will lead to supply expansion
Eastern Europe where yields are half than the west Africa and Latin
America has regions of unutilized ag production potential May lead
to introduction of second generation biotechnology (Gates) and
enhanced development of second generation biofuel
Slide 54
The Future of Biofuel is Dependent Upon Innovation Need better
feedstock Cleaner processing Higher productivity agriculture
Dissemination and access to technology Lessons of electronics and
biotech: Emergence of educational industrial complex Public/private
partnership in R&D and infrastructure Technology transfer,
start-ups Evolution of industry affected by IPR and regulation IPR:
access, sharing arrangement and enforcement Regulations: land use,
carbon content
Slide 55
Cheap and clean fuel and food Require more R&D investment
and sound regulations Ag research has been deemphasized and over
regulated in recent year Food productivity- except of some crop
stagnating Expansion of food and fuel with small or no expansion of
land base will be feasible with Increased productivity of
underperforming regions and crops Increased agricultural knowledge
and investment Improved policies and institutions Introduction and
Adoption of new technologies
Slide 56
The bottom line Biofuel already contributes to reduced fuel
prices ( 20%, maybe up to 50%) Largest price increases are in rice
and wheat, perhaps due to under-use of new technologies Recent
growth in agriculture has not been linear in land. Incentives and
technologies led to increased food supply with much less than
proportional land expansion There is ample under-performing or
abandoned farmland and degraded or under-utilized land that would
allow expansion w/o significant GHG and resource consequences. It
all depends on policy, which reflects our commitment to meeting
food, fuel and environmental objectives. We must consider
alternatives: what will happen if we abandon biofuel
opportunities
Slide 57
Integration of Agricultural, Energy and Environmental Policies
Traditional commodity support program becomes redundant Biofuel
mandates and support: Should be examined critically- in many cases
should be eliminated Should be linked to environmental performance
and food situation ( differentiate based on emissions) May provide
insurance Government may help establish biofuel industry, then it
must compete. Food security funds Certification of biofuel sources-
at both micro and macro levels Emphasis on innovation
Slide 58
Can you return the genie to the bottle? NO- you can have
smaller mandates But people will prefer their gas tank over other
people stomachs Political economy- cheap food and fuel are
cornerstone deliverable of many governments- oil is subsidized
Biofuel is seen as a opportunity to increase agriculture and rural
well Feasible Intervenetions Improved technologies Less market
distortions More correction for environmental side effects
Slide 59
Biofuel in bigger context Biofuel is a part of a bigger puzzle
Its importance stems from importance of liquid fuel Battery
development will change it direction (emphasis on feed for power)
Progress of other power sources Introduction of incentive for
conservation Sound pricing of GHG and the Environment Investment in
Public transit Change in building codes and population spread Will
affect value and design of biofuel sector and policies
Slide 60
Biofuel and developing countries Not every country needs
biofuel policy It has no place when biofuels can not compete with
existing crops or imposes high environmental costs (net social
benefit is negative ) It can help countries with underutilized
appropriate resources- if introduced with a sound regulatory
framework Many concerns can be addressed refineries can buy from
cooperatives of small farmers Pollution control polices can control
emission etc Second generation crop can reduce cost and increased
gains
Slide 61
Whats next-in biofuel research: Industrial organization
Economics of biofuel and other fuels OPEC response to biofuels
Biofuels and other renewables Alternative supply chain design and
their implications The innovations systems (R&D,IPR) and their
impacts on biofuels and other fuels Pricing and product and
networks design
Slide 62
Adoption and contracts Adoption of Biofuels varies by locations
and according to economic and biophysical conditions Depends on
contractual features Legal framework Research needs to quantify
these relationships Come up with superior contract features (from
various perspectives) Sound principles for policy design under
various conditions Emphasize risk management issues
Slide 63
Biofuels in the context of global economy Biofuels and the
macro economy Sensitivity to business cycles and financial
conditions Attitudes and acceptance Biofuels in the developing
world Case studies Distributional impacts under alternative designs
Biodiversity and environmental issues
Slide 64
Combining economics and geography Using GIS to identify where
biofeul can be working Using CGE to assess prices and quantities
Assessing various policies to help Poor-food bank
Environment-Carbon tax- LCA Based regulations Producers-insurance
contracts
Slide 65
Thanks Research leading to this presentation was supported
byEBI USDA ERS World Bank We thank them all EBI THE EBI ERS -USDA
The World Bank We thank them all SDA ERS World Bank We thank them
all EBI USDA ERS World Bank We thank them all
Slide 66
Instability of prices of biofuel relative to fuel and food Corn
is most volatile Ethanol is high when MTBE mandate binds Now less
profitable