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The Economic Outlookfor
South Carolina and the
Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013
May 3, 2012
Rob SalvinoCoastal Carolina University
S.C. Total Employment (Millions)
S.C. Unemployment Rate
S.C. Aggregate Wages and Salaries by Sector ($ Millions)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
State and Local Govt
Manufacturing
Health Care and Social Assistance
Retail
Construction
Accommodation and Food Services
Federal, civilian
S.C. Single Family Permits (number)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
History 40998 38895 29870 18604 12795 12142 12237 NaN NaN
Forecast NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 13125 13975
2,500
7,500
12,500
17,500
22,500
27,500
32,500
37,500
42,500
Santee-Lynches Economic Forecast 2012-2013
Presented by:The Santee-Lynches Regional Workforce Investment Board
&the BB&T Center at Coastal Carolina University
Santee-Lynches Gross Retail Sales ($Billions)
Santee-Lynches Net Taxable Sales ($Billions)
Santee-Lynches Employment
Santee-Lynches Labor Force
Labor Force = Number of Employed + Number of Unemployed seeking work
Santee-Lynches Unemployment Rate
Number of Unemployed seeking work
Number of Employed + Number of Unemployed seeking work
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20111.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
4.3
6.37.0
7.5 7.78.1
7.6
6.7
7.8
12.612.2
11.5
3.5
5.25.9
6.7 6.8 6.86.4
5.6
6.8
11.5 11.2
10.3
4.04.8
5.86.0
5.55.1
4.6 4.6
5.8
9.3 9.69.0
Average annual unemployment rates, 2000 - 2011
Region STATE U.S.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (3 qtrs avg.)
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000 19,868
18,174
16,547 16,49215,781
14,768
13,80713,254
12,178
10,4979,841 9,688
Region's manufacturing jobs by year
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (3 qtrs avg.)
46,000
47,000
48,000
49,000
50,000
51,000
52,000
53,000
54,000
55,000
51,570
50,789
51,467 51,500
52,587 52,934
53,493
54,311
53,222
50,791 50,939 51,065
Region's non-manufacturing jobs by year
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages
Projected Timeline
2011 2021
18 (key mgt. positions)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
150 (prod. leads)
240 130 130 130
800 totalhere
1,600 totalhereWages
$33,000 avg. production wage$55,000 avg. overall wage
“If real estate is location, location, location, then economic development in the new economy
is education, education, education.”
Dr. JOHN S. BUTLERProfessor, University of Texas
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics’ August 2011 U6 Unemployment Rates for adults 25-and-older. U6 Rate measures the total unemployed, plus those employed part-time involuntarily, plus discouraged workers who have at least temporarily given up searching for work. Thus, U6 rates describe the real number of people in the U.S. who are feeling the effects of unemployment. U6 national rates applied to Santee-Lynches Region by COG calculation.
Source: Employment Security Commission UI Unique Claimants* Approximately 18.2% of UI claimants during the years didn’t provide educational attainment level on claimant form; therefore their data isn’t included here.
High school diploma / GED or less
1 or 2 years of post-secondary educ.
3 or more years of post-secondary educ.
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0% 76.9%
15.4%
7.7%
75.7%
16.2%
8.1%
76.4%
15.9%
7.7%
75.1%
16.2%
8.7%
Educational attainment of UI Unique Claimants in Region by Year*
2006 2007 2008 2009
Fall 2002 Fall 2003 Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2008 Fall 2009 Fall 201033.0%
36.0%
39.0%
42.0%
45.0%
48.0%
51.0%
54.0%
57.0%
45.1%46.2%
44.7%46.2%
47.9%46.4% 45.9%
47.8%
50.2%
47.2%
49.2% 49.4% 50.0%50.8%
51.7%53.1%
55.1%56.1%
Percentage of students enrolling in college, other postsecondary, or military in first fall term after expected high school completion date
Santee-Lynches STATE
Source: SC Dept. of Education’s 8th grade enrollment totals and College Freshman Report.Percentage estimates are likely within 5% margin of error of true rate of cohort entry into postsecondary and the military directly after high school.
Santee-Lynches Single Family Permits
Santee-LynchesSingle Family Permits – Value ($Millions)
Santee-Lynches Mfgd/Mobile Homes - Number
Santee-LynchesNon-Residential Permits – Number
Santee-LynchesNon-Residential Permits – Value ($Millions)
Forecast Summary• Gross Retail Sales rising because of higher employment,
income and inflation. High gas and food prices will still curtail discretionary spending to some extent.
• Employment improving more in 2012 and ’13, given pent-up demand, industrial expansions and other announcements creating more optimism.
• Educate and train workforce for 21st Century jobs. Importance of post-secondary education. Fewer and fewer opportunities for low-skilled workers.
• Residential Construction still low.• Nonresidential Construction improving.
Real GDP (Growth Rate)
CPI (Inflation Rate)
U.S. Unemployment Rate
Prime Rate
30-Year Mortgage Rate
10-Year Treasury Rate
3-Month Treasury Rate