The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends › files › reports › The driver shortage... · 2017-01-09 · 4 The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 4 Employment in UK Logistics Table

The Driver Shortage: Issues and TrendsAn independent analysis of professional drivers

in the UK logistics sector

Prepared for FTA by RepGraph Ltd

October 2016

The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 1

1

Contents

DriverShortageKeyPerformanceIndicators.........................................................................2ReportSummary...................................................................................................................3EmploymentinUKLogistics..................................................................................................4LGVDrivers:EmploymentandClaimantCount......................................................................5EmploymentofLGVdriverscomparedtogeneralemployment..................................................5LGVdriveremploymentbycountryandregion...........................................................................6LGVdriverclaimantcount............................................................................................................7DriverShortageNumber.......................................................................................................8LabourForceSurveystatistics–drivershortagenumber............................................................8LGVDriverEmploymentStatus.............................................................................................8Driverjobturnover.......................................................................................................................9Driverturnovercalculation........................................................................................................10Churnwithintheindustry..........................................................................................................10DriverPayandConditions....................................................................................................11Paymeasures.............................................................................................................................11Measuresofworkinghours........................................................................................................12LGVDriverAge:AProfessionDominatedbyOlderMaleDrivers..........................................13AverageageforLGVdrivers.......................................................................................................13LGVdriveragecomparedtogeneralpopulation.......................................................................13Gender........................................................................................................................................14NewEntrantsandTestPassRate.........................................................................................14Initialqualification......................................................................................................................14LGVdriverapprenticeships........................................................................................................15LGVpassrate..............................................................................................................................15Age.........................................................................................................................................16Gender...................................................................................................................................16

ProblemsRecruitingProfessionalDrivers.............................................................................17DriverShortage:BarriersandSolutions................................................................................17

2 The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 2

DriverShortageKeyPerformanceIndicators

Indicators 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Drivershortagenumber 35,189 69,551 52,720 43,087 34,567

AverageageofLGVdriver 48.1 47.9 48.0 48.0 47.9

TotalnumberofLGVdriversinemployment

290,000 259,000 285,000 299,217 315,495

NumberofEULGVdriversinemployment 18,247 16,562 19.062 25,109 31,542

PercentageofEULGVdriversinemployment 6.3% 6.4% 6.7% 8.4% 10.0% Numberofnon-EULGVdriversinemployment 1,817 1,011 1,034 2,735 3,780

Percentageofnon-EULGVdriversinemployment 0.63% 0.39% 0.36% 0.91% 1.20%

LGVdriverchurn 7.7% 7.1% 9.8% 9.7% 5.8%

Workingpopulationchurn 4.2% 4.1% 4.4% 4.9% 4.5%

LGVdriverpaygrossweekly £471 £484 £494 £505 £519

Numberofdriversclaimingjobseekersallowance*

6,400 4,885 2,220 1,055 620

Numberofapprentices 7,620 5,510 4,000 4,930 5,470**

NumberofLGVpracticalteststaken 46,549 46,246 48,283 55,161 70,233

Numberofpracticaltestspassed 24,401 24,498 26,224 30,574 39,000

Levelofdifficultyrecruitingdrivers(QTAS)***

43% 54% 67% 82% 76%

*FiguresforMayeachyear(i.e.midpointofQ2)**Provisional***FromQ2ofeachyearfortheFTAQTASsurvey

The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 3 3

ReportSummary1. Thedrivershortageiscurrentlyestimatedat35,000LGVdrivers

2. TheaverageageofanLGVdriveris47.9years(downfrom48.1lastyear).Overthelast

15yearstherehasbeenasteadyincreaseinaveragedriverage,risingfrom45.3yearsin2001to48yearsatthepresenttime

3. Around64percentofLGVdriversare45yearsorolder.Only2percentofemployeddriversareunder25whereas10percentofthetotalemployedpopulation(ofworkingage)isunder25

4. ThenumberofLGVdriversinemploymenthasincreasedby5percentcomparedtolastyear

5. ThenumberofLGVdriversclaimingJobseeker’sAllowanceinQ22016was620.ByAugust2016,thenumberhadfallenfurtherto530whichdown38.4percentfromayearagoand96.5percentlowerthanthepeakof15,255inMarch2009duringtheeconomicdownturn

6. 5,470peoplestartedapprenticeshipprogrammeslearningtodrivegoodsvehiclesin2015/16whichisanincreaseof11percentcomparedto2014/15butis28percentlowerthan2011/12.

7. 36,615drivers(bothLGVandPCV)acquiredaDCPCthroughtheinitialqualificationfromApril2015toMarch2016–anincreaseof22percentonthepreviousyear

8. ThenumberofpracticalLGVpracticalteststakenintheyeartoendofMarch2016increasedto70,233whichis27percenthigherthanlastyearandisnowatpre-recessionlevels.Althoughthepassratehasgraduallyimprovedsincefinancialyear2007/2008,onlyjustoverhalfoftesttakerspass

9. IntheyeartotheendofMarch2016,overhalf(58percent)ofalltestsweretakenby

thoseundertheageof35.Theaverageageofapersontakingapracticaltestwas34

10. FTAmembersreportedaroundthesamelevelofdifficultyinrecruitingdriversinthesecondquarterof2016comparedtothepreviousquarter.InQ22009however,justover20percentofrespondentshadproblemsrecruitingLGVdrivers,thishasnowincreasedtoaround76percentinQ22016

Note:Inrecentyearsthetruckandcoachlicensingcategorynameshavechanged.HGV(HeavyGoodsVehicle)isnowLGV(LargeGoodsVehicle).ForconsistencyinthedocumentthetermLGVisused.


EmploymentinUKLogisticsTable1providesabreakdownofemploymentinUKlogistics.1Thetotalnumberofpeopleemployedinlogisticsoccupationsand/orworkingforcompaniesinthelogisticssectorisnowaround2.5million.Table1:Broaddefinitionofemploymentinlogistics:numbersandpercentagesemployed

LogisticsoccupationsEmployment* Nationality**

Logisticssector

Allothersectors Total % UK EU Other

Purchasingmanagersanddirectors

8,501(5,181)

49,587(49,870)

58,088(55,051)

2%(2%)

52,556[90%]

2,090[4%]

3,442[6%]

Managersanddirectorsintransportanddistribution

37,795(34,326)

42,520(44,688)

80,315(79,014)

3%(3%)

71,118[89%]

7,425[9%]

1,772[2%]

Managersanddirectorsinstorageandwarehousing

34,954(26,554)

74,371(57,641)

109,325(84,195)

4%(4%)

102,884[94%]

4,836[4%]

1,605[1%]

Importersandexporters 5,160(5,181)

1,935(5,829)

7,095(11,010)

0%(0%)

5,054[71%]

705[10%]

1,336[19%]

Transportanddistributionclerksandassistants

25,985(24,611)

42,798(38,859)

68,783(63,470)

3%(3%)

66,403[97%]

2,380[3%]

0[0%]

LargeGoodsVehicledrivers209,861

(188,468)105,634

(110,749)315,495

(299,217)13%

(13%)280,173[89%]

31,542[10%]

3,780[1%]

Vandrivers112,637(88,729)

138,631(107,511)

251,268(196,240)

10%(8%)

223,232[89%]

22,378[9%]

5,658[2%]

Fork-Lifttruckdrivers 31,109(30,440)

65,921(55,698)

97,030(86,138)

4%(4%)

74,286[77%]

20,466[21%]

2,278[2%]

Postalworkers,mailsorters,messengersandcouriers

133,372(127,588)

28,234(29,145)

161,606(156,733)

6%(7%)

146,264[91%]

12,181[8%]

3,161[2%]

Elementarystorageoccupations

176,346(161,914)

223,074(229,918)

399,420(391,832)

16%(17%)

296,371[74%]

92,867[23%]

10,182[3%]

OtheroccupationswithintheLogisticsSector

996,003(927,443) N/A

996,003(927,443)

39%(39%)

861,940[87%]

94,070[9%]

39,993[4%]

Total1,771,723(1,620,435)

772,705(729,908)

2,544,428(2,350,343) 100%

2,180,281[86%]

290,940[11%]

73,207[3%]

*NumbersinroundbracketsareforQ22015,providedforcomparison**PercentagesinsquarebracketsareproportionoftotalIntheyearfromQ22015toQ22016thelogisticssectoraddedover150,000jobstotheeconomyandwhen‘allothersectors’areincluded,employmentinlogisticsincreasedbyover190,000.Thisreflectsthesteadyincreaseinlabourdemandoverthelast2-3years.TheLGVdriverpopulationhasexpandedby15,000(5percent)thisyear,helpingtoreducethedriverdeficit.Non-UKnationalsrepresent11percentoftheLGVdriverpopulation:1percentarenon-EUnationalsand10percentareEUnationals.Ofthe10percentofdriversfromtheEU,themajoritycomefromEasternEuropeandinparticularPoland,RomaniaandHungary.Theproportionofthepopulationwhoidentifybeingavandriverastheirmainoccupationhasrisenappreciablyby28percentovertheyear.InQ22015,vandriversaccountedfor8percentofjobsinlogisticsbutthishasgoneupto10percentthisyear;anincreaseofover55,000.Around11percentofvandriversarenon-UKnationalsandEUnationalsrepresent9percentofthelogisticsvandriverpopulation(around22,000drivers).

1Source:RepgraphanalysisofONSLabourForceSurveyforQ2,2016


Intotal,around365,000non-UKnationals(14percentoflogisticsworkers)areemployedinlogisticsandnearly300,000(11percent)areEUnationals.Byproportion,mostEUnationalsareemployedinwarehousingandstoragerelatedoccupations.EUnationalsrepresent21percentoftheforkliftdriverpopulation(around20,500drivers)and23percentofelementarystorageoccupations(around93,000jobs).

LGVDrivers:EmploymentandClaimantCount

EmploymentofLGVdriverscomparedtogeneralemployment2InQ22016accordingtotheONSLabourForceSurvey,therewere315,495peopleemployedasLGVdrivers,comparedwith321,455professionaldrivers10yearsearlier(areductionof2percent).Atthesametimenationalemploymentstatisticsindicatedthattherewereatotalofover31.66millionjobsinJune2016comparedto29.10million10yearsearlier,whichisanincreaseof9percent.Whiletotalemploymentnumbershaveincreasedoverthelast15yearstherehasbeenasignificantfallintheproportionofLGVdrivers(droppingby15percentfrom2001to2013,butrecoveringsomewhatsincethen).ThenumberofLGVdriversinemploymentincreasedovertheperiodfromQ22015toQ22016(upby5percent),butthiswasinlinewithareductioningeneralunemploymentduetoimprovedeconomicconditionsandisstilljustbelow2007pre-recessionlevels(Figure1).Figure1:LGVdriversinemploymentcomparedtogeneralemployment

2Source:ONSLabourForceSurveyEmploymentstatusbyoccupation,tablesEMP04andEMP16Q22001-Q22015

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

Num

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s(no

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toQ

2-20

01)

TotalnumberofJobs

NumberofLGVDrivers


LGVdriveremploymentbycountryandregionNearlyonehalfofdriversareemployedinCentralandNorthernEnglandwiththelargestproportionworkingintheNorthWestofEngland(Figure2).TheregionthatemploysthehighestproportionofLGVdriversisNorthWestEngland.Perhapsunsurprisingly,NorthernIrelandhasthesmallestproportionofdrivers(3percent),followedbyWales.Figure2:PercentageLGVdriveremploymentbycountry/region


LGVdriverclaimantcountThenumberofLGVdriversclaimingJobseeker’sAllowanceinQ22016was620(takingthemonthofMayasthemid-pointforQ2).ByAugust2016,thenumberhadfallenfurtherto530whichis down38.4percentfromayearago.AccordingtotheUKLabourMarketstatisticspublishedbytheONStheUKclaimantcount3wasslightlyhigher(0.3percent)inAugust2016comparedtoJuly4.Atthesametime,thetrendforLGVdriversclaimingJobseeker’sAllowancecontinueditsdownwardtrajectory,fallingby7.0percentinthesameperiod.FortheUKasawhole,theclaimantcountwas771,000,downbyonly2.7percentfromayearago.

ThisstatisticshowsthatlabourmarkettrendsforLGVdriversintheUKisoutofstepwithgenerallabourmarkettrends.Onthesurfacethismayseemlikegoodnews,butinrealitythereisanever-shrinkingpoolofactivejobseekersfromwhichtosourcedrivers.ThecurrentLGVdrivers’claimantcountis96.5percentlowerthanthepeakof15,255inMarch2009duringtheeconomicdownturn,almostdoublethatoftheUKasawholeinthesameperiod.

Figure3:EmploymentandunemploymentofLGVdrivers,UnitedKingdom,Q220165

3 PeopleoutofworkclaimingJobseeker’sAllowanceorUniversalCredit4Sources:Nomis-Claimantcountbyoccupation(Augustfigures)14September20165Sources:Nomis-Claimantcountbyoccupation(Mayfigures)15June2016andONSLabourMarketStatistics-TableEMP04:AllInEmploymentByStatus,Occupation&Sex(Q2figures)17August2016

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

LGV

driv

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laim

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Num

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Vdr

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ClaimantCount Numberinemployment


DriverShortageNumberThedrivershortagenumberisestimatedbycomparingjobgrowthforthegeneralpopulationwithLGVdriversbasedonONSLabourForceSurveystatistics.

LabourForceSurveystatistics–drivershortagenumberAnanalysisoftheofficialONSLabourForceSurveydataestimatesthatthecurrentdrivershortagefigureis34,567.

LabourForceSurveyanalysis1. In2001therewereestimatedtobe305,629LGVdrivers.2. AsofJune2016therewere315,495LGVdrivers.3. Atthesametime,thetotalUKeconomyhadadded14.5percentmorejobscomparedto2001.4. AssumingthattheindustriesemployingLGVdrivershavetrackedtheeconomyasawholein

termsofdemandforjobs,thenthereshouldbea14.5percentincreaseinthedemandforLGVdriverssince2001.

5. Thisequatesto350,062LGVdriversrequired.Thereforetheshortfallinthenumberofdriversisestimatedtobe350,062–315,495=34,567asofmid2016.

6. Thisislikelytobeaconservativeestimatesincetheriseine-commerceandhomedeliveryinrecentyearsislikelytohaveexacerbateddemandforLGVdriverscomparedtomanyothervocations.

LGVDriverEmploymentStatusFigure4showstheemploymentstatusoftheUK’sLGVdrivers.6Figure4:LGVdriveremploymentstatus

InQ22016,9percentofrespondentsindicatedthattheywereself-employedwhilst91percentstatedthattheywereemployees.Thiscomparestoonly6percentwhowereself-employedin2009duringtherecession.7Thisisprobablycausedbytheimprovementintheeconomycreatingmoreopportunitiesfordriverstosetupontheirown.Theincreasedproportionofself-employeddriversmaybecontributingtothedifficultiescurrentlyexperiencedbyfirmsinrecruitingpermanentLGVdrivers.PerhapsnotsurprisinglymostLGVdriversworkfulltime(Figure5).8

6Source:LabourForceSurvey,Q220167Source:LabourForceSurvey,Q220098Source:LabourForceSurvey,Q22016

9%

91%

Self-employeddrivers

Driverswhoareemployees


Figure5:LGVdriversinfullandparttimework

InQ12016,95percentofrespondentsstatedthattheyworkedfulltimeand5percentparttime.TherewasnochangecomparedtoQ22009attheheightoftherecession,whenthesameproportionreportedthattheywereworkingfulltime.TheconsistentlysmallproportionofparttimeworkingisprobablyduetojobworkpatternsmakingitverydifficulttoemployLGVdriversonaparttimebasis.NinetysevenpercentofLGVdriverswereinapermanentjobinQ22016,9highlightingthelargeamountofworkavailableandthelargedemandforLGVdriversatthemoment.AgencyworkerscontinuetorepresentasmallproportionofLGVdrivers.InQ22016only3percentofrespondentsstatedthattheywereagencyworkers,10reflectinglowdemandcurrentlyforagencystaff,asemployersprefertotakeonpermanentLGVdrivers.

DriverjobturnoverMostLGVdrivershaveremainedwiththesameemployerforarelativelylongperiodoftime.Figure6showslengthoftimeincurrentjobasofQ22016.Figure6:LGVdrivers:Timeincurrentjob

Alargemajorityhavebeeninthesamejobformorethantwoyearsandmorethanhalfhavebeeninthesamejobformorethanfiveyears,whichisinlinewiththetrendacrossthegeneralworkingpopulation.11

9Source:LabourForceSurvey,Q2201610Source:LabourForceSurvey,Q2201611Source:LabourForceSurvey,Q22016

95%

5%

Fullnme

Partnme

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Perc

enta

geo

fres

pons

es


DriverturnovercalculationEachyear,theQ2LabourForceSurveyincludessupplementaryquestionsnotcontainedintheotherquarters,suchas‘occupationayearpreviously’.Thesedataareusedtoestimatedriverturnover:

DriverTurnoverCalculations1. ThenumberofLGVdriversinQ22015was299,2172. NumberofLGVdriversinQ22016was315,4953. Thisrepresentsa5percentnetincreaseinthenumberofLGVdriversfromQ22015toQ2

20164. ThemeannumberofLGVdriversovertheperiodfromQ22015toQ22016was307,3565. InQ220169,155or3percentLGVdrivershadlefttheindustryforanotherjobwithinthe

year(9,155/307,356)Theresultsshowthatdespitethe3percentattritionovertheperiod,therewasanet5percentextraLGVdriverjobscomparedtoayearearlier.ThisisindicativeofcontinuedstrengthinthedemandforLGVdriversthathasbeenbuildingsincetheendofthelastrecession.Thechallengefortheindustryremainshowtoretainalargernumberofdrivers.

ChurnwithintheindustryIntheQ22016LabourForceSurvey41,550LGVdriversindicatedthattheyhadbeenintheircurrentjobforlessthanoneyear.Atthesametime,around4.5millionpeopleinthenationalworkingpopulationwerealsointheirpresentpostforlessthanayear.ThefollowingchartillustratesthejobchangedetailsforLGVdrivers.Figure7:LGVdriverchurn

EvenaccountingforthelargeproportionofLGVdriverswhoseoccupationayearearlierwasunknown,18,310ofthosedriverswhohadbeeninpostforlessthanoneyearhadmovedfromonedrivingjobtoanother.ThisequatestoaconservativeestimateofLGVdriverchurnof5.8percent(18,310/315,495).Thesamefigureforthegeneralworkingpopulation(i.e.forsame-vocationannualchurn)is4.5percent.ItishoweververyencouragingthatLGVdriverchurnhasdecreasedtoitslowestlevelinthelastfiveyears,havingpeakedin2014whentheeconomicrecoverywasdrivingdemandatagreaterratethanperhapsitisnow.

18,310

9,859

13,380 MovedfromonedrivingjobtoanotherWereinanon-driverjobayearagoUnknownwhatjobwasayearago


Table2:LGVDriverchurnforthelast5years

Year LGVDriverChurn% Workingpopulationchurn%2012 7.7 4.22013 7.1 4.12014 9.8 4.42015 9.7 4.92016 5.8 4.5The2016figurenonethelessdemonstratesthatalthoughchurnofLGVdrivershasdecreasedinrecentyears,professionaldriversarestillmovingjobsatagreaterratethanthenationalaveragefortheworkingpopulation(29percentgreaterchurninLGVdriversthanchurnacrossallvocationsthisyear).FindingwaystoretainLGVdriversinthesamejobisthereforeabigchallengeforthelogisticsindustry.12

DriverPayandConditionsTheLabourForceSurveyasksparticipantsaboutvariousaspectsoftheirpayandemploymentconditions,includingaverageweeklyandhourlypayaswellashoursworkedandovertime.ThissectionpresentstheresultsoftheanalysistothesequestionsforLGVdrivers.

PaymeasuresTheLabourForceSurveyincludesseveralmeasuresofpay.Thefollowingtableprovidesdetailsforthemostinformativepaymeasures:Table3:LGVdriverpay

Q22015 Q22016 Responses Mean Median Responses Mean Median %change*Grossweeklypay 110 £505 £486 109 £519 £538 +2.8Netweeklypay 109 £402 £403 111 £416 £415 +3.5Grosshourlypay 107 £10.31 £10.00 106 £10.82 £10.60 +4.9Basichourlyrate 50 £10.26 £10.00 48 £10.22 £9.50 -0.3*meanpayGrossandnetweeklypayroseabovetherateofRPIinflationasdidgrosshourlypay,whichwasupbynearly5percentonthepreviousyear.Basichourlyrateswerebroadlyunchanged,indicatingthatgrosshourlypayincreaseshaveprobablyarisenfromincreasedovertimeremuneration(althoughitshouldbenotedthatbasichourlyrateiscalculatedusingasmallersamplesize).Overall,theresultsindicatethatdriverpayincreasesarestilloutpacinginflation.Analysisofaveragegrosshourlyandweeklypayforeachagebandrevealedthatwagesweresignificantlyhigherfordriversovertheageof30.Forthe20-29yearoldagebracket,theaveragegrossweeklypaywasaround£480,butthiswasaround£550forthe30-39agebracket(15percenthigher).Beyondtheageof40,therewasnosignificantchangeingrossweeklypay.Thelargepaysteparoundtheageof30probablyreflectstheextravalueemployersplaceonmoreexperiencedLGVdrivers.Itshouldhoweveralsoserveasanincentivetoyoungerpeoplejoiningtheprofession,whocanexpecttheirearningstorisesignificantlyiftheyremainwithintheindustryforjustafewyears.12Source:LabourForceSurvey,Q22016


Risingpressureonstartingsalaries

ForQ22016theaverageweeklygrosspayforthosewhoheldtheirjobforlessthanayearwas£425.17comparedto£403.33ayearearlier,anincreaseof5.4percent.Thisriseiswellabovetherateofinflationandnearlydoubletheaverage2.8percentincreaseinaveragegrossweeklypay,indicatingacurrentupwardpressureonstartingsalaries,possiblycausedbydifficultiesinrecruitingLGVdrivers.

MeasuresofworkinghoursWorkingtimeiscapturedviaanumberofvariablesintheLabourForceSurvey,includingusualandbasicweeklyhoursofworkaswellasusualweeklyhoursofovertime.Table4:LGVdriverhours

Q22015 Q22016 Usualhours: Responses Mean Median Responses Mean Median %changeExcludingovertime 257 45.3 45 240 45.4 45 0.2%Includingovertime 183 51.7 50 183 52.2 51 1.0%Paidovertime 181 8.2 7 184 8.3 8.0 1.2%Unpaidovertime 186 0.75 0 187 0.52 0 -30.7%Hoursofworkbothincludingandexcludingovertimeincreasedmarginallyhoweverhoursofunpaidovertimedecreasedinthesameperiod.Amajorityofrespondentsreportedthatovertimewaspaidatmorethantheirbasicpayrate(78percent)with22percentbeingpaidovertimeatthesamerateastheirbasichours.Sixtyonepercentreportedthattheywerepaidatafixedhourlyrateand39percentatavariablerate.Asmallmajorityreportedthattheirhoursofworkvaryfromweektoweek(198outof352inQ22016)whilstlessthan5percentstatedthattheywouldliketoworklongerhoursatcurrentbasicpay.


LGVDriverAge:AProfessionDominatedbyOlderMaleDrivers

AverageageforLGVdriversOverthelast15yearstherehasbeenasteadyincreaseinaveragedriverage,risingfrom45.3in2001to47.9atthepresenttime(Figure8).Itishoweverencouragingtonotethattheaveragedriveragehaslevelledoff,decreasingveryslightlyfromlastyear.Figure8:AverageageofLGVdriverpopulationoverthelast15years

Source:QuarterlyLabourForceSurveys,2001-2016(Q2foreachyear)

LGVdriveragecomparedtogeneralpopulationDataonagedemographyfromtheLabourForceSurvey(Q22016)revealedthatover64percentofLGVdriversare45yearsorolder.13Thisisvastlydifferenttotheeconomy-widedemographics,wherethepopulationaged45yearsorolderinemploymentwasfoundtobearoundhalf(Figure9).Only2percentofemployeddriversareunder25(thisisupfrom1percentlastyear),whereasover10percentofthetotalemployedpopulationisunder25.ThelargenumberofLGVdriversovertheageof65(around21,000)alsopointstocontinuedpressuresondriverrecruitmentinordertobackfillpositionsvacatedduetorecentretirements.

13Source:QuarterlyLabourForceSurvey,Q22016

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Figure9:Agedemographicsforprofessionaldriverscomparedtothegeneralpopulation

Source:QuarterlyLabourForceSurvey,Q22016

GenderLabourForceSurveydataindicatesthattheLGVdriverprofessioncontinuestobedominatedbymen.Theapproximateestimateisconsistentlyaround1percentforfemaledriversinthepopulationhowever,thesmallnumberoffemaledriverrespondentspreventsamoreaccuratemeasure.InthesampleofLabourForceSurveyrespondentsinQ22016,only3(0.7percent)werefemale.

NewEntrantsandTestPassRate

InitialqualificationThefiguresfordriversacquiringDCPCthroughtheinitialqualification(whichrepresentsnewentrantstotheindustrywhodidnotholdacategoryClicencepriorto10September2009)areprovidedinTable5.Therewasa22percentincreaseinnewentrantsfortheyearendingMarch2016comparedtothepreviousyear.Table5:Initialqualification

Financialyear DCPCinitialqualification14April08–March09 3,948April09–March10 7,524April10–March11 12,104April11–March12 14,003April12–March13 16,511April13–March14 21,054April14–March15 30,025April15–March16 36,615

14https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/driver-certificate-of-professional-competence-cpc-statistics

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LGVdriverapprenticeshipsLatestfigurespublishedinApril2016bytheSkillsFundingAgencyandtheDepartmentforBusiness,InnovationandSkillsprovisionallyindicatedthatforthe12monthsfromAugust2015toAugust2016,5,470peoplestartedapprenticeshipprogrammeslearningtodrivegoodsvehicles.15whichisanincreaseof11percentcomparedto2014/15butis28percentlowerthan2011/12.Table6:LGVdriverapprenticeshipnumbers

Year 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16Count 7,620 5,510 4,000 4,930 5,470**provisional

LGVpassrateThepassrateforLGVdriversimpactsonthenumberofdriversinemployment.ThenumberofpracticalteststakenintheyeartotheendofMarch2016increasedby27percentcomparedtolastyearandisnowbacktopre-recessionlevels.Overallthenumberofteststakenhasincreasedby60percentsincethelowof2010/11.Althoughthepassratehasgraduallyimprovedsincefinancialyear2007/2008,onlyjustoverhalfoftesttakerspass(Table7).16Table7:Practicallargegoodsvehicle(LGV)test,17GreatBritain:2007/08to2015/16

Year Tests Passes %passrate182007/08 70,766 32,779 46.3%2008/09 65,852 32,298 49.0%2009/10 46,426 23,876 51.4%2010/11 43,894 22,664 51.6%2011/12 46,549 24,401 52.4%2012/13 46,246 24,498 53.0%2013/14 48,283 26,224 54.3%2014/15 55,161 30,574 55.4%2015/16 70,233 39,000 55.5%

15https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/fe-data-library-apprenticeships16https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/drt05-practical-large-goods-vehicles-LGV-test-pass-rates17IncludestestcategoriesC,C1,C+E,C1+E18Source:DfT2016Practicallargegoodsvehicles(LGV)testpassrates(DRT0501)


Age

IntheyeartotheendofMarch2016,overhalf(58percent)ofalltestsweretakenbythoseundertheageof35.Inadditiontheaverageageofapersontakingapracticaltestwas34.Figure10:AgebreakdownforthenumberofpracticalLGVtestsconducted19

Gender

ThenumberofwomentakingthepracticalLGVtesthasremainedbetween6and7percentofalltesttakerssince2008.Thepassrateforwomenishoweverconsistentlyhigherthantheirmalecounterparts.Table8:Passratesformenandwomen

Year Malepassrate Femalepassrate2007/08 46% 48%2008/09 49% 52%2009/10 51% 55%2010/11 52% 53%2011/12 52% 54%2012/13 53% 53%2013/14 54% 59%2014/15 55% 59%2015/16 55% 58%

19Source:DfT2016Practicallargegoodsvehicles(LGV)testpassrates(DRT0503)


ProblemsRecruitingProfessionalDriversAccordingtoFTA’sQuarterlyTransportActivitySurvey(QTAS)July2016,FTAmembersreportedaroundthesamelevelofdifficultyinrecruitingdriversinthesecondquarterof2016comparedtothepreviousquarter.InQ22009however,justover20percentofrespondentshadproblemsrecruitingLGVdrivers;thishasincreasedtoaround75percent(Figure11).Figure11:Problemsinrecruitingprofessionaldrivers

DriverShortage:BarriersandSolutionsInJune2016,FTAconducteditsannualTransportManagerSurveyandfoundthatover46percentofrespondentsreportedthatinrecentmonthstheywereeitherunabletofillLGVdrivervacanciesorhadexperiencedlongdelaysindoingso.Only24percentoftransportmanagersreportedthattheyhadexperiencednoissuesatall.AmajorityoftransportmanagersanticipatedashortageofLGVdriversinthenearfuturewithmostblamingretirementasthegreatestcontributingfactor(Figure12).Figure12:ReasonsforanticipatedshortageofLGVdriversinthecomingmonths

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Upturnintheeconomy

DriverCPC

Lackofapprennces/trainees

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Percentageofresponses


‘Financialcostofacquiringalicence’wasrankedasthegreatestbarriertodriverrecruitment,followedbypoorindustryimageandlackofapprenticeshipschemes(Figure13).Figure13:Barrierstodriverrecruitment

Respondentsindicatedthatincreasingtheavailabilityandfundingforapprenticeshipswasthemostimportantmeasuretoaddresstheproblemofrecruitmentanddeployment(Figure14).Figure14:Measurestoaddressdriverrecruitmentanddeployment

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DriverCPC

Lackofcareersadvice

Youngdriverinsurancepremiums

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1=smallestbarrier7=greatestbarrier

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Driverroadsidefacilines

Incennvestorecruitlong-termunemployed

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Improveindustryimage

Staffdevelopment

Guidanceonskills,fundingandsupport

Increasetheavailabilityandfundingforapprennceships

1=leastimportant7=mostimportant


For‘othermeasures’thatwouldhelpaddressrecruitment,‘improvingdriverpay,hoursandconditions’wasagainthemostpopularresponse,asitwasforotherreasonswhydrivershortageswereanticipated(Figure15).

Figure15:Othermeasurestoaddresstheproblemofdriverrecruitmentanddeployment

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Improvepublicimageofdrivers

Increaseapprennceshipsupportandreducequalificanoncost

Reducedriverregulatoryburden

Improvedriverpay,hoursandcondinons

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Documents

The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends › files › reports › The driver shortage... · 2017-01-09 · 4 The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 4 Employment in UK Logistics Table