The Drive for Energy Diversity and Sustainabilityceet.mccormick.northwestern.edu/events/domain_dinner07/smyth_d… · India Korea Mexico Brazil Poland Russia South Africa ... Source:

Director, Powertrain Systems Research Lab,General Motors R&D and Strategic Planning,Warren, MI, USA

Director, Powertrain Systems Research Lab,General Motors R&D and Strategic Planning,Warren, MI, USA

Dr. J. Gary SmythDr. J. Gary Smyth

The Drive for Energy Diversity and Sustainability:

The Impact on Transportation Fuels and Propulsion Systems

The Drive for Energy Diversity and Sustainability:

The Impact on Transportation Fuels and Propulsion Systems

Northwestern Symposium on Energy Efficient Transportation, December 3, 2007

2

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau International Population Database, GM Global Market & Industry Analysis

Transportation is a growth industry!Transportation is a growth industry!

8

6

4

2

0

16%

12%

10%

8%

0%

Billi

ons

Perc

ent

1980 1990 2000 2020

World Population Global Vehicle Parc

12%15%

3

70%of growth from 10 emerging markets

70%of growth from 10 emerging markets

ChinaChina South South KoreaKoreaIndiaIndiaMexicoMexico

BrazilBrazil

PolandPolandRussiaRussia

South AfricaSouth Africa

ThailandThailand

Automotive Growth OpportunityAutomotive Growth Opportunity

TurkeyTurkey

4

Industry ChallengesIndustry Challenges

Energy

Environment

Safety

Congestion

Affordability

Energy

Environment

Safety

Congestion

Affordability

5

111

88

146

195

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2003 2030

Non-OECDOECD

56

79

3745

23

37

1823

39

106

918

613 10

22

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

OECDNorth

America

OECDEurope

Non-OECD

Europe-Eurasia

OECDAsia

Non-OECDAsia

MiddleEast

Africa Central& SouthAmerica

20032030

Global Energy Demand – 2030Global Energy Demand – 2030

1.3%

0.7%1.8%

1.0%

3.7%

2.4%2.6%

2.8%

3.0%

1.0%

Global: 2.0%/yr70% over 2003

MBDOE

MBDOE

Source: DOE-EIA 2006

6

Global Energy Consumption to 2030Global Energy Consumption to 2030Oil

2006: 85MBD 1,000 barrels/second !

2030: 120 MBD projected

50% used for transportation

Transportation is 98% dependent on petroleum

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Wor

ld E

nerg

y C

onsu

mpt

ion

(MB

DO

E)

Renewables

Nuclear

Coal

Natural Gas

Oil

Transportation

Source: DOE-EIA 2006

7

U.S. Petroleum Consumption by AutomobilesU.S. Petroleum Consumption by Automobiles

Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 with Projections to 2030 – Report #: DOE/EIA-0383(2007)

WHERE WE NEED TO GO(Bold Moves)

140

190

8

9

Alternate Resources – A Blending StrategyAlternate Resources – A Blending Strategy

Fuel-Cell ElectricHydrogen

ShiftReaction

Electricity

Heat

Renewables(Solar, Wind, Hydro)

Nuclear

Energy Carrier Propulsion SystemConversion

Elec

trifi

catio

nEl

ectr

ifica

tion

Energy Resource

ICE Hybrid

Conventional ICE:Gasoline / Diesel Liquid

Fuels

Petroleum FuelsOil(Conventional)

Oil(Non-Conventional) Synthetic Fuels (XTL)

SyngasCO, H2

FischerTropsch

Coal

Natural Gas

1st and 2nd Generation Biofuels

Biomass

Liquid Fuels / Electricity / Hydrogen as the In-Vehicle Energy Carriers

Regional NicheGaseous

Fuels

Crit

ical

Dep

ende

ncy

on B

atte

ry T

echn

olog

y

Plug-In Hybrid ICE

Electric Vehicle

10



ShiftReaction

Energy Carrier Propulsion SystemConversionEnergy Resource

Elec

trifi

catio

nEl

ectr

ifica

tion

ICE Hybrid


Fuels



SyngasCO, H2

FischerTropsch

Coal

Natural Gas


Biomass


Crit

ical

Dep

ende

ncy

on B

atte

ry T

echn

olog

y

Electricity

Heat


Nuclear

Plug-In Hybrid ICE

Electric Vehicle

11

World Fossil Energy ReservesWorld Fossil Energy Reserves

12

Alternate fossil fuel resourcesAlternate fossil fuel resources

Very large reserves to produce liquid fuel from unconventional oil & coalIssues: Cost, CO2 emissions and large energy required to extract

Source: Global Insights 2006

Total coal reservessignificantly larger

13

Demand

Future petroleum production requires significant investmentFuture petroleum production requires significant investmentDifferent investments required to supply growing demand

Source: National Petroleum Council, 2007Facing the Hard Truths about Energy (Draft Executive Summary)A comprehensive view to 2030 of global oil and natural gas

Futu

re O

il Su

pply

Gap

Maintain production in existing fieldsDevelop of new wells and fields

Unconventional oil and new explorationCostlier technology to enhance oil recovery

BIOFUELSBIOFUELS

15

Biomass Production and PotentialBiomass Production and Potential

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

2004 2005 2006U.S. Brazil ChinaIndia France GermanyRussia

Global ProductionGlobal Production US ProductionUS Production

US Biomass Potential:1.3B Tons Per Year by 2030 (DOE)

= ~100B gallons ethanol ( ~65B gallons gas equivalent)

= 46% of actual usage in 2006= 34% of projected usage in 2030

US Biomass Potential:1.3B Tons Per Year by 2030 (DOE)

= ~100B gallons ethanol ( ~65B gallons gas equivalent)

= 46% of actual usage in 2006= 34% of projected usage in 2030

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Actual ProductionFuture - Projected

Renewable Fuels Standard7.5B gal by 2012

16

Electricity: Energy Diversity ExemplifiedElectricity: Energy Diversity Exemplified

Diverse energy sources are used for electricity generation – based on local resourcesExisting, global infrastructure with clearly-defined standardsEfficient transmission systemSpare generation capacity exists: US “valley filling” up to 43% of light-duty fleet *Energy from Renewables (17%) ─ High growth (~52%) but just

keeping up with overall demand growth

─ Hydropower already maximixed

19%

41%6%

18%

16%Natural GasCoalOilRenewablesNuclear

Global Electricity Generation 2003

Generation capacityalready exists

Baseload: Nuclear, hydro

Baseload: Coal

MidnightNoonMidnight Noon Midnight

Elec

tric

ity D

eman

d

Peak Peak

US Daily Load Shape

* PNNL Report 2007; 33miles/day commute

17

Nuclear EnergyNuclear Energy16% of global electricity generated (2005; 16 trillion kWh)─ 442 reactors─ 370 GW capacity

Current projections indicate significant additional capacity approved / being constructed─ 80 reactors─ 80 GW capacity

Proposed capacity additions:─ 152 reactors─ 107 GW capacity

China has 10 reactors, with 18 under construction / approved and 50 more proposed

Nuclear Power Generation Capacity in MW

0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000

USAFranceJapan

RussiaGermany

South KoreaUkraineCanada

United KingdomSweden

ChinaSpain

BelgiumSouth Africa

IndiaOperationalUnder ConstructionPlannedProposed

Number of Reactors

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

USAFranceJapan

RussiaGermany

South KoreaUkraineCanada

United KingdomSweden

ChinaSpain

BelgiumSouth Africa

India

OperationalUnder ConstructionPlannedProposed

18



ShiftReaction

Electricity

Heat


Nuclear


Elec

trifi

catio

nEl

ectr

ifica

tion

Energy Resource

ICE Hybrid


Fuels



SyngasCO, H2

FischerTropsch

Coal

Natural Gas


Biomass



Fuels

Crit

ical

Dep

ende

ncy

on B

atte

ry T

echn

olog

y

Plug-In Hybrid ICE

Electric Vehicle

19

GM Advanced Propulsion Technology StrategyGM Advanced Propulsion Technology Strategy

ImprovedVehicle Fuel Economy &Emissions

ReducedPetroleum

Consumption

FuelInfrastructure

Hybrid ElectricVehicles (incl. Plug-In HEV)

IC Engine andTransmissionImprovements

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles

Battery ElectricVehicles

Near-Term Mid-Term Long-TermPetroleum (Conventional and Alternative Sources)

Bio Fuels (Ethanol E85, Bio-diesel)

Hydrogen

Electricity (Conventional & Alternative Sources)

20



ReducedPetroleum

Consumption

FuelInfrastructure







Hydrogen


21

Cam Phasing

Spark Ignition Direction Injection

Port Deactivation

2-Step VVA

Homogenous Charge Compression Ignition

Achieving the Upper Potential of Gasoline Engines

1

DPF, SCR & LNTAftertreatment

HCCIHomogeneous

Combustion

PCCIPre-Mixed

Charge Comb.

VVT / VVA

Electrically Assisted

Boost

Advanced EGR Systems

Reduced Compression

Ratio

Advanced Boost Configurations

Enhanced EGR Cooling

Diesel EngineEnabling Technology DevelopmentDiesel EngineEnabling Technology Development

Low Temp / Low soot

Combustion

Diesel Particulate Filter

Advanced Boosting

Cylinder Pressure Sensing

NOX Aftertreatment

PCCI Combustion

2

150 hp / 310 Nm (229 lb-ft)150 hp / 310 Nm (229 lb-ft)90 hp / 200 Nm (148 lb-ft)90 hp / 200 Nm (148 lb-ft) 125 hp / 280 Nm (207 lb-ft)125 hp / 280 Nm (207 lb-ft) 150 hp / 320 Nm (236 lb-ft)150 hp / 320 Nm (236 lb-ft)

365 hp / 895 Nm (660 lb-ft)365 hp / 895 Nm (660 lb-ft)180 hp / 420 Nm (310 lb-ft)180 hp / 420 Nm (310 lb-ft)NEW IN 2009 – EuropeNEW IN 2009 – Europe NEW IN 2009NEW IN 2009

2.0L I-42.0L I-41.3L I-4 CDTi1.3L I-4 CDTi 1.7L I-4 CDTi1.7L I-4 CDTi 1.9L I-4 CDTi1.9L I-4 CDTi

Duramax 6.6L V-8Duramax 6.6L V-83.0L V-6 CDTi3.0L V-6 CDTi

GMPT Global Portfolio Diesel Engines GMPT Global Portfolio Diesel Engines

250 hp / 550 Nm (406 lb-ft)250 hp / 550 Nm (406 lb-ft) 310 hp / 704 Nm (520 lb-ft)310 hp / 704 Nm (520 lb-ft)2.9L V-62.9L V-6 Duramax 4.5L V-8Duramax 4.5L V-8

3

Global Renewable FuelsGlobal Renewable Fuels

In Brazil, FlexPower is now available in every passenger car model. FlexPower models account for 90% of sales.

In Brazil, FlexPower is now available in every passenger car model. FlexPower models account for 90% of sales.

In Sweden, Saab leads the environment-friendly car segment with 9-5 BioPower, accounting for 85% of Saab 9-5 sales.

In Sweden, Saab leads the environment-friendly car segment with 9-5 BioPower, accounting for 85% of Saab 9-5 sales.

In U.S., GM has over 2 million FlexFuel E85-capable vehicles on the road. Building >400,000 more every year.

In U.S., GM has over 2 million FlexFuel E85-capable vehicles on the road. Building >400,000 more every year.

4



ReducedPetroleum

Consumption

FuelInfrastructure







Hydrogen


5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 20092006 2010

GM Hybrid Portfolio

HybridHybrid

22--ModeModeHybridHybrid

Light HybridLight Hybrid

GM/Allison Hybrid BusGM/Allison Hybrid Bus

Tahoe/YukonTahoe/Yukon

EscaladeEscalade

Silverado/SierraSilverado/Sierra

22--ModeModeHybridHybrid

Saturn AURA/Chevy MalibuSaturn AURA/Chevy Malibu

Saturn VUESaturn VUE

22--ModeModePlugPlug--InIn

Saturn VUESaturn VUE

Saturn VUE (timing not announced)Saturn VUE (timing not announced)

Chevy Silverado/GMC SierraChevy Silverado/GMC Sierra

Beginning this summer, 16 programs over next four years

1 every 3 months!

Beginning this summer, 16 programs over next four years

1 every 3 months!

6

288V NiMH Battery2-Mode Operation2 X 60KW Motor/generators

7

8

2-Mode Hybrid - Joining Hybrid Forces2-Mode Hybrid - Joining Hybrid Forces

GM-DC MoU, 13.12.2004

DC-GM-BMW MoU, 12.09.2005

9



ShiftReaction

Electricity

Heat


Nuclear


Elec

trifi

catio

nEl

ectr

ifica

tion

Energy Resource

ICE Hybrid


Fuels



SyngasCO, H2

FischerTropsch

Coal

Natural Gas


Biomass


Crit

ical

Dep

ende

ncy

on B

atte

ry T

echn

olog

y

Plug-In Hybrid ICE

Electric Vehicle

PLUG IN HYBRID (PHEV)

November 2006: Production Plans Announced (LA Auto Show)

Range-Extended EV (ICE/Fuel-Cell)

CONTINUING THE PATH

January 2007: E-Flex Vehicle Architecture Announced (NAIAS) - VOLT Concept Vehicle- 40 miles All Electric Range (AER)

10

11

Chevy Volt ConceptChevy Volt Concept

Electric Drive Motor

120 kW / 320Nm (peak)

Li Ion Battery Pack

136 kW peak power

16 kWh energy

53 kW Generator

Internal Combustion Engine

1.0L 3-cylinder turbo

12

Range-Extended EVRange-Extended EV

13

Range-Extended EVRange-Extended EV

14

Advanced Battery TechnologyAdvanced Battery Technology

Much improvement over time

Focused on “power” for hybrids, NOT “energy” for plug-ins and pure electric vehicles

Lithium-ion chemistry can provide both power and energy

100

75

50

25

00 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

Specific Power (Watt/kg)

Lead Acid Supercapacitor

Nickel

Advanced Lithium Ion

Spec

ific

Ener

gy (W

att-h

r/kg)

100

75

50

25

0

100

75

50

25

00 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,2000 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

Specific Power (Watt/kg)

Lead Acid Supercapacitor

Nickel

Advanced Lithium Ion

Spec

ific

Ener

gy (W

att-h

r/kg)

Greatest hurdle: Develop large, high-volume lithium-ion battery packs

Individual cells that meet requirements exist

Cost ($/kWh)

Requires intensive development with battery sources

15



ReducedPetroleum

Consumption

FuelInfrastructure







Hydrogen


16

17

GM’s Newest Fuel Cell StackGM’s Newest Fuel Cell Stack

Power:

73kW continuous

110kW peak

Power density: 1.6kW/liter

Power:

73kW continuous

110kW peak

Power density: 1.6kW/liter

4th generation fuel cell stack

372 single fuel cells

4th generation fuel cell stack

372 single fuel cells

18

Project Driveway - 100 Vehicle Fleet Project Driveway - 100 Vehicle Fleet

World’s largest fuel cell vehicle fleet

With customers later this year

4th-generation fuel cell propulsion

Engineered for 50,000 miles of life

Able to start and operate in sub-freezingtemperatures.

19

Well-to-Wheels AnalysisWell-to-Wheels Analysis

Tank-to-WheelsTank-to-WheelsWell-to-TankWell-to-Tank

20

Energy Pathways – Well-to-WheelsEnergy Pathways – Well-to-Wheels

Based on 2006 EUCAR/CONCAWE and GM 2005 WTW

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

WTW Energy Use (relative to gasoline ICE)

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

Gasoline ICEDiesel ICE

FT Diesel ICEDiesel DME

Hydrogen FC

FT Diesel ICEDiesel DME

Hydrogen FCPlug-in: EV only

FT Diesel ICEE85 ICE

Diesel DMEHydrogen FC

Plug-in: EV onlyRME Diesel ICE

Plug-in: EV only

WTW CO2 (relative to gasoline ICE)

Well-to-TankTank-to-Wheel

Oil

Natural Gas

Coal

Biomass

US E-Mix

CO2 ProductionCO2 Production Energy ConsumptionEnergy Consumption

21

In SummaryIn Summary

Demand

85MBD = 1,000 barrels / second!70% growth through 2030US petroleum usage: 140B gallons growing to 190B gallons (2030)

Supply

Energy diversification required (reduce petroleum)Blending energy carrier strategy: coexistence of liquid fuels, electricity & hydrogenas the on-vehicle fuels

22



ShiftReaction

Electricity

Heat


Nuclear


Elec

trifi

catio

nEl

ectr

ifica

tion

Energy Resource

ICE Hybrid


Fuels



SyngasCO, H2

FischerTropsch

Coal

Natural Gas


Biomass



Fuels

Crit

ical

Dep

ende

ncy

on B

atte

ry T

echn

olog

y

Plug-In Hybrid ICE

Electric Vehicle

23

GM’s CommitmentGM’s Commitment

Promote & execute a “Blending Energy Carrier Strategy”Efficiency: Implement Advanced Propulsion Technologies to optimize fuel efficiency and minimize emissionsBiomass: Accelerate the utilization of biomass with E85 and Bio Diesel capable propulsion systemsElectrification: Drive the electrification of the vehicle- Hybrid vehicles & plug in hybrids- State of the art “Electric Drive” systemsHydrogen: Reinvent the automobile through the design, development and validation of a production viable automotive fuel cell system

24

Thank You for your Attention.Thank You for your Attention.

Documents

The Drive for Energy Diversity and Sustainabilityceet.mccormick.northwestern.edu/events/domain_dinner07/smyth_d… · India Korea Mexico Brazil Poland Russia South Africa ... Source: