Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
China National Petroleum Corporation
The Development of China’s Natural Gas Market
Mr. Su ShulinJune, 2005
第2页中国石油
Contents
I. The status quo of the development of China’s natural gas industry.
II. The major utilization fields of China’s natural gas.
III. The suggestions for the development ofChina’s natural gas industry.
第3页中国石油
The Status quo of the Development of China’s Natural Gas Industry
1、General Introduction
2、Status quo of Resources Exploitation
3、Status quo of Pipeline Network Construction
4、Status quo of Natural Gas Consumption
第4页中国石油
1、General Introduction
• Exploitation and utilization of natural gas is of great significance for
ameliorating China’s energy structure and protecting the environment.
• In recent years, China’s natural gas supply, consumption and pipeline
network construction have entered a booming period.
第5页中国石油
1、General Introduction
• Resources:formation of four major onshore gas fields and two offshore gas fields.
• Pipelines:preliminary formation of the national backbone pipeline network with the West-East Pipeline as the trunk line.
• Market:rapid increase of natural gas demand, and emergence of a huge market.
第6页中国石油
2、Status quo of Resources Exploitation
Tarim Basin
Ordos BasinZaidam Basin
Sichuan Basin
Yingqiong Basin
East Sea Basin
China’s natural gas reserves are mainly in the onshore Tarim Basin, Ordos Basin, Sichuan Basin and Zaidam Basin, and offshore Yingqiong Basin and East Sea Basin.
第7页中国石油
2.China’s Abundant Natural Gas Resources
(as of the end of 2004)
Projects National Total
Resources(trillion cubic meters) 47
Proven reserves(100 million cubic meters) 49000
Remaining recoverable reserves(100 million cubic meters) 22289
第8页中国石油
2、Steady Increase of China’s Natural Gas Production
(Unit:100 million cubic meters/ year)
0
100
200
300
400
500
Output 152 174 262 303 326 341 408
1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
第9页中国石油
Comparison between China’s Natural Gas Production and some Other Countries(100 million cubic meters)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Britain Norway Italy Germany Russia Saudi
Arabia
United Arab
EmiratesQatar
Canada ChinaU.S.
China’s natural gas production ranks 17th in the world
第10页中国石油
3、Status quo of Pipeline Network Construction
哈尔滨
海口
三亚
崖13-1琼东
乐东
东方1-1
乌鲁木齐
拉萨
西宁
兰州
银川
呼和浩特
太原 石家庄
北京
天津
济南
长春
沈阳
郑州
西安南京
上海合肥
武汉
南昌
杭州
福州 台北
长沙
贵阳
南宁 广州
香港澳门
昆明
成都
塔中4
库尔勒 鄯善哈密
靖边
榆林
濮阳
万县
重庆
格尔木
涩北
轮南
忠县
大庆
宁波
敦煌
青岛
喀拉斯达板满洲里
景洪
桂林
依兰
大连
遵义
秦皇岛
采南
淄博
Long-distance
pipeline
West-East Pipeline
12bcm/year
Shaanxi-Beijing Pipeline
3bcm/year
Sebei-Ningxia-Lanzhou
2bcm/year
Zhongxian-Wuhan Pipeline
3bcm/year
Second Shaanxi-Beijing
Pipeline12bcm/year
Southwest Pipeline Network
100bcm/year
Yagang Pipeline
3bcm/yearTransmission capacity of 45 bcm/year come into shape
第11页中国石油
Among the six national backbone pipelines already built, the West-East Gas Pipeline has the greatest significance for the development of China’s natural gas industry.
•The West-East Gas Pipeline is the milestone project symbolizing China’s natural gas industry entering a new era of rapid development from start-up.
West-Gas PipelinePipe diameter:1016mmLength:3900 kmDesign Pressure:10 MPaTransmission Capacity:120×108m3/a
Lunnan
Shanghai
第12页中国石油
4、Status quo of Natural Gas Consumption
Increase of China’s Natural Gas Consumption from 2000 to 2004 (100 million cubic meters)
250 264 284 301360
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
第13页中国石油
China’s Natural Gas are mainly consumed in peripheral areas of gas fields and East China
Urumchi
Lhasa
XiningLanzhou
Shijiazhuang
Beijing
Jinan
Harbin
Changchun
Shenyang
ZhengzhouXi’an Nanjing
ShanghaiHefei
Wuhan
Nanchang
Hangzhou
FuzhouChangsha
NanningGuangzhou
Daqing
Dalian
Major Long-distance pipelines
Peripheral areas of gas fields
East
China
Market
第14页中国石油
Chemical industry as the major consumer of China’s natural gas
ChemicalIndustry
35%
Power Plant13%
Civil fuels24%
Industrialfuels 28%
China’s Natural Gas Consumption Structure(2003)
第15页中国石油
China’s Natural Gas Pricing Mechanism
Pricing Mechanism
Factory Price Tariff
Direct supply price
City Gate Distribution End User
Government
stipulates the priceLocal governments
stipulate the price
• Factory price+ tariff= City gate price• City gate price +distribution price= End user price
第16页中国石油
Contents
I. The status quo of the development of China’s natural gas industry.
II. The major utilization fields of China’s natural gas.
III. The suggestions for the development ofChina’s natural gas industry.
第17页中国石油
II. The major utilization fields of China’s natural gas
1、Various factors contributing to the rapid development of China’s natural gas market.
2、Development trends of China’s natural gas market.
3、Civil fuels plays the leading role in natural gasutilization.
第18页中国石油
(1)Government policies support the utilization of natural gas
1、Various factors contributing to the rapid development of China’s natural gas market.
• Scientific development concept of “People-first, all-around coordinated sustainable development”.
• Sustainable energy development strategy of “prioritizing energy saving, diversified structure, benign environment and market-oriented”.
• Governments at various levels support the development of natural gas industry.
第19页中国石油
(2)Rapid economic growth drives the fast development of natural gas market
Economic drive:China’s GDP has been increasing rapidly。China’s GDP in 2004 was 13.65 trillion RMB yuan (around 1.6 trillion U.S. dollars),representing a 9.5% increase over the previous year.
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
China’s GDP Growth(1995-2004)
Unit: trillion yuan
第20页中国石油
Environment protection drive:higher requirement on environment protection leads to more emphasis upon the utilization of clean energy like natural gas.
(3)Environment Protection Drives the fast developmentof China’s Natural Gas Market
• Government and people from all walks of life attaches great importance to environment protection.
• Vigorously popularizing the utilization of such clean energies as natural gas has become one of the effective measures of protecting the environment and improving air quality.
第21页中国石油
(4) Urbanization Drives the fast developmentof China’s Natural Gas Market
• China’s total number of cities is about 660, with 109 million households and a urban population of 352 million.
• In 2020, China’s urbanization level is to reach 55% from the current 35%.
• Urbanization and improvement of people’s living standard are to promote natural gas utilization in civil gas field.
• Infrastructure construction lays a foundation for China’s mass utilization of natural gas.
第22页中国石油
( 1 ) Forecast of natural gas demand : China’s natural gas market is to develop rapidly due to the requirement of macro policies, scientific development concept, and driven by economic development, environment protection, and urbanization. It is estimated that China’s demand for natural gas is to reach 200 bcm in 2020, with an annual growth rate of 11.8%.
2、Development trends of China’s natural gas market.
1000
2000
360
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Up 11.8% annually
Forecast of China’s Natural Gas Demand Increase
(100 million cubic meters)
2004 2010 2020
第23页中国石油
(2)Natural Gas Demand Allocation
Taipei
昆明
Beijing
It is estimated that the natural gas consumption in northeast, Bohai Bay area, Yangtse River Delta and Southeast coastal areas is to account for over 60% of the country’s total consumption.
Northeast
Yangtse River Delta
Bohai Bay Area
Southeast
第24页中国石油
Natural gas consumption structure is to be optimized, civil use and power generation constitute major utilization of natural gas.
Forecast of China’s Natural Gas Consumption Structure in 2020
15%
22%
27%
36%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
(3)Natural Gas Consumption Structure
Power Generation
Industrial Fuels
Natural gas Chemical
Civil use
第25页中国石油
•Currently, natural gas’s proportion in primary energy is less than3%,which is expected to increase steadily, and reach 8-10% in 2020.
2.6%
2004
2020
6.0%
2010
8.0%
(4)Natural Gas Proportion in Primary Energy
第26页中国石油
3、Civil fuels plays the leading role in natural gas utilization.
乌鲁木齐
拉萨
西宁
兰州
银川
呼和浩特
太原石家庄
Beijing
天津
济南
哈尔滨
长春
沈阳
郑州
西安南京
上海合肥
武汉
南昌
杭州
福州 台北
长沙
贵阳
南宁 广州
香港澳门
海口
昆明
成都
塔中4
库尔勒 鄯善
哈密
靖边
榆林
濮阳
万县
重庆
格尔木
涩北
轮南
忠县
大庆
宁波
敦煌
青岛
喀拉斯达板满洲里
抓吉
景洪
桂林
依兰
大连
遵义
秦皇岛
采南
淄博
满洲里
(1)Distribution of China’s Civil Gas Market
Major civil gas market
Natural gas gradually become
major fuel of China’s civil gas market.
第27页中国石油
(2)Natural gas becomes major source of China’s civil gas supply
• It is estimated that in 2020, natural gas’s popularization rate is to reach 60-70%,and becomes major source of China’s civil gas supply.
65%
35%
Natural gas
Other fuels
Forecast of natural gas proportion in civil gas in 2020
第28页中国石油
(3)Development Trend of Civil Utilization of Natural Gas
• The scale of civil gas supply system is getting larger
• Civil gas supply is to expand the utilization into other industrial fields such as natural gas cars, heating and freezingtogether with the enhancement of popularization rate of natural gas.
• Distributed natural gas freezing, heating, power combined supply system has broad room for development.
第29页中国石油
(4)Civil Gas Use Typical Case:Beijing
• Beijing used to be one of China’s seriously polluted cities.
• Statistics shows that the annual amount of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and atmosphere suspended particulates are 0.080、0.140 and 0.364 mg respectively.
• In order to improve Beijing’s air quality, the municipal government decided to utilize natural gas to replace fuels like coals.
第30页中国石油
Rapid growth of Beijing’s natural gas consumption(Unit:100 million cubic meters)
1.83.8
7.6
11
14.5
18.2
22
25.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
• In 1997, Beijing’s natural gas consumption was merely 0.18 bcm.
• In 2004, Beijing’s natural gas consumption reached 2.53 bcm.
第31页中国石油
Marked Improvement of Beijing’s Atmosphere Quality
Pollutant emissionDays when Air quality was and above Grade II
• In 229 days of 2004, the city’s urban air quality was and above Grade II.
第32页中国石油
Contents
I. The status quo of the development of China’s natural gas industry.
II. The major utilization fields of China’s natural gas.
III. The suggestions for the development ofChina’s natural gas industry.
第33页中国石油
III. The market development strategies of China’s natural gas industry
1、Intensifying Resources Exploration and Exploitation
2、Accelerating the Construction of Natural Gas Pipeline Network
3、Strengthening International Cooperation
第34页中国石油
1、Intensifying Resources Exploration and Exploitation
•China’s natural gas exploration and development has a bright future.
•To ensure the rapid growth of domestic natural gas production through intensified exploration.
• Strengthening the exploration and development of coal-bed methane and promote the utilization of it. 。
第35页中国石油
China’s Natural Gas Industry Development Owns Good Resources Support
Steady Increase of China’s Domestic Natural Gas Proven Reserves (trillion cubic meters)
Steady Increase of China’s Domestic Natural
Gas Production (100 million cubic meters)
10
4.9
6.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2004 2010 2020
407
850
1200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2004 2010 2020
第36页中国石油
2、Accelerating the Construction of Natural Gas Pipeline Network
•Construction of nationwide backbone pipeline network.
•Establishment of liaison and distribution system with liaison line as the bridge.
•Building storage facilities with underground gas storage as the core.
•Diversified gas supply via onshore pipeline and offshore LNG.
•Stipulating emergency and peak shaving schemes.
第37页中国石油
3、Strengthening International Cooperation
• Personnel training: collaborate in technology, management and
commerce training
• Technology transfer: actively import and absorb advanced technologies
from developed countries
• Strengthening cooperation:actively participating in domestic and
international cooperation of natural gas projects. Importing oversea
natural gas, China’s guideline in natural gas utilization is “ Domestic
production playing dominant role and importation as supplement.”