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THE DAY AFTER:. A CIVILIZATIONAL CRISIS FROM ‘SUSTAINABLE GROWTH’ TO SEARCH FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURE/HUMANITY İbrahim Öztürk Prof. Dr. Marmara University Bosphorus Unv. Center for Asian Studies. THE CENTRAL MESSAGE OF THE PAPER. DO NOT AFREAD OF CRISIS BUT - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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THE DAY AFTER:
A CIVILIZATIONAL CRISISFROM ‘SUSTAINABLE GROWTH’ TO
SEARCH FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURE/HUMANITY
İbrahim ÖztürkProf. Dr.
Marmara UniversityBosphorus Unv. Center for Asian Studies
THE CENTRAL MESSAGE OF THE PAPER
DO NOT AFREAD OF CRISIS BUT PUT EMPHASSI ON THE QUALITY OF
YOUR RESPONSE
THE NECESSITY IS THE MOTHER OF INVENTION
WHAT WENT WRONG? (I) THE CRISIS of 1970s... Post 2nd. WW qantitif or physical developement
saturated as of 1970s. Return on capital started decreasing. What is next?
Side efect of developmentalist / Keynesian state emerged.
Collapse of Gold Standard /End of Bretton Woods System
Oil Crisis and Stagflation
Significant convergence amongs latecomers and the leading Cs.
WHAT WENT WRONG? (II) THE RESPONSE (NOT Crisis but quality of reaction defining) The rise of Neo-Liberal Order: Deregulation, end of nation states as
unit of analysis. Governance Structures and Institutional Foundation of market under attack Trade and Finance Liberalization. Seperation of capital and the nation states.
From stake holder to share holder value maximization. The rise of virtual, finance and the bubble economy through financial
innovations. Gap widens btw. reel economy and the finance capital: Excessive
financializaiton Real Estate Bubbles fastened: Chain was cut in Japan at early 1990s
and then spreaded to the rest of the World. Unlike the first and second Industrial Revolution, now factors are
flowing from oceans to the inner lands, what has been called periphery.
FROM THE CRISIS OF ECONOMICS TO THE CRSIS OF CIVILIZATIONSThe Rise and Decline of Civilizations
Natural Law: Some How Irreversible! Demographic Structure
Alienation
Excessive Exploitation of Resources
A RISK MAP FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURE?! Global Warming Evrironmental Degradation Food and Commodity Aging Erosion of family Excessive selfishness and atomization Lack of hope and motivation in young
generations The rise of racism Joblessness / Unemployment Inevitably rising protectionism Lack of Leadership and Governance Crisis Cold War Global institutions: Legitimacy problem
SAVING THE FUTUREFROM CRISIS TO
THE QUALITY OF REACTION
Crisis, Innovaiton Waves and Technological Breakthrougs(A Schumpeterian Creative Destruction?)
I. Industrial Revolution (1780-1840): Mass production of textile, cotton critical input
II. IR (1840-1890): Steam Engine, Railroads, Coal
III. Waves of Change ( 1890-1940): Electricity,Steel and Iron Age
IV. Waves of Change (1940-1990): Otomobile, Mass Prod. Of Synthetic industrial goods. Energy (Oil)
V. Waves of Change (1990-?): The Age of ‘Nano’ and ‘speed revolution’ (Knowledge, Communication, Computer networks, Nano-Engineering. Semi-conductors or micro electronic)
FORCASTING THE OUTCOMES OF 6TH. KONTRADIEV WAVESMATERIAL REACTIONS
ENERGY ENVIRONMENT HEALTH/BIOTECH FOOD NANO-REVOLUTION IT(THE AGE OF HIGH RISK HIGH RETURN
(ALL NECESSARY BUT NOT SUFFICIENT!)
FACTORS IN POSIVE DECOUPLING
GROWTH DYNAMICS DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE GEO-STRATEGIC POSITION KEY RESOURCES (ENERGY-COMMODITY) PROXIMITY TO THE MAJOR EMERGING
MARKETS STILL KNOWLEDGE
AS WE ARE ON THE SAME SHIP INDIVIDUAL STORIES DO NOT WORK
Overheating and resistance
Micro results&Fundamentals
Systemic and Structural Parameters
Culture / Mentality
Macro results
Water Level
BİG PİCTURE: FACİNG THE ICEBERG
QUALITY AND THE PHILOSOPHY OF REACTION TO CURRENT CRISIS
GLOBAL PROBLEM GLOBAL SOLUTION SINCE THE LAST CRISIS: OLD WINE IN OLD BOTTLE!
SHOULD GO BEYOND MATERIAL REACTIONS SUCH AS MOTIVATING GROWTH ETC.
QUESTIONING THE FUNDAMENTALS: PREMISES AND POSTULATES NEW TRINITY OF HUMAN BEING: FREEDOM, MARKET AND MORALITY (Institutionalization and
endogenizing values in economic theroy)
LISTENING TO
William Greider: The Soul of Capitalism: Opening Path to a Moral Economy, 2003. Amartya Sen, On Ethics and Economy, 1998.
1. MARKET (PRICE) MECHANISM,
2. INSTITUTIONS, AND 3. CULTURE: None of them can be sacrificed
INSTITUTIONS WORK WITH CULTUREBUT CULTURE CAN NOT BE IMPORTED.
AN INDIGENOUS LEARNING BY DOING IS UNAVOIDABLE. MODERNIST DOGMAS DO NOT WORK.HOWEVER, A UNIVERSAL LEARNING CURVE EFFECT IS QUITE USEFUL
A WORKING SYSTYEM REQUIRES SYNTHESIS BTW.
LONG ROAD TO RETORING STABILITYREFORM AND CHANGE: A “REVERSE ENGINEERING” OR RE-PRODUCTION OF THE STATUSQUO IS NOT REALISTIC A NEW MOTIVATION SCHEME through LEGITIMACY (with different mode of
distribution, participation, transparency, accountability, responsibility, regulation)
A NEW SOCİAL CONTRACT is urgent
POLITICAL STABILITY
GOOD GOVERNANCE, CAPACITY AND AUTONOMY OF STATE
TURKEY FROM THIS PERSPECTIVE1. NOT ENEMY BUT PARTNER2. NOT BURDEN BUT OPPORTUNITY 3. NOT SUBSTITUTE BUT A COMPLEMENT
INITIATING THE NEW SILK ROAD: RETURNING TO THE HISTORY: FROM SHANGHAY TO ISTANBUL
“DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS IN 2050”
LET’S MEET WHERE CONTINENTS MEET
SHIFTING TO THE CENTER
CHNAHING ASIA
GDP (bill. dollars) Pop. (000 persons)Per-capita(GDP, $)
World 59900 6,707.000 8940
Asia 16700 4,054,000 4175
Jap. 5068 127.551 39740
China 4984 1,334.740 3734
Russia 1231 141.900 8681
India 1236 1,199.062 1031
S. korea 832 48.758 17074
Turkey 614 70.538 8711
Indonezia 539 231.547 2329
Saudi Arabia 376 25.519 14744
Taivan 378 23.120 16372
UAE 223 4.908 45614
Kaynak: IMF
19801981
19821983
19841985
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
20142015
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
8,0
5,27,2
9,5
14,4
28,3SHARE OF ASIA IN WORLD GDP (PPP)
Japonya Yeni Sanayileşen Asya Ülkeleri Gelişmekte olan Asya ASEAN-5
EMERGENCE OF NEW MIDDLE CLASS IN ASIA
MARKET POWER
AN ENERGY CORRIDOR:A WIN-WIN STRATEGY BTW. SUPPLIERS AND CONSUMERS
HUMAN CAPITAL ABUNDANT
LABOR PRODUCTIVITY
STILL COMPARABLY CHEAPER