The Data Have Spoken:Climate Model Forecasts

Have Failed

Dr. Roy W. SpencerPrincipal Research Scientist

The University of Alabama in Huntsville30 October 2015

Global Tropospheric Temperatures Monitored since 1979 with satellites

by two separate research groups (UAH, RSS)

Climate Models Over-Forecast Global Warmingwhen compared to all 3 types of temperature data

(satellites, radiosondes, near-surface thermometers)

The Model Failures Extend to Regional Predictions

e.g. the U.S. CORN BELT…this then leads to exaggerated projections of climate change impacts on agricultural yields.

Conclusion

• It is difficult to base energy policy (e.g. the Social Cost of Carbon) on models which are demonstrably wrong in their predictions.