The Council Study Sustainable Management and Development of the Mekong River Including Impacts of Mainstream Hydropower Projects

Henry Manguerra, Ph.D., P.E. Study Coordinator, MRCS 4th BDP Forum on the Mekong Basin Development Strategy 21 November 2014, Siem Reap, Cambodia

Study Objective #1

• Further develop/establish a reliable scientific evidence

… of positive and negative environmental, social, and economic impacts of water resources developments

Study Objective #2 • Integrate results into the MRC knowledge base to

enhance the BDP process

Perform

Inform

Inform

Inform

Enhance

Study Objective #3

• Promote capacity and ensure technology transfer to Member Countries

Overall Assessment Framework

Why this Study is Important? • All Development Thematic Areas • Cumulative and Transboundary Impacts • Opportunities for Strategic or Optimal Planned

Developments • Policy Recommendations for Impact Mitigation

including Cost and Benefit Sharing • Product and Process Improvement Oriented

– Capacity Building – Sustainability and Scalability of Assessment Framework – Integrated and Collaborative Working Relationships

Between MCs and all Programs of MRC Secretariat

Reduction in Data/ Information/ Knowledge Gaps

• Council study is building on information, knowledge and assessments conducted by MRC BDP and other commissioned assessments such as the SEA of mainstream dams

Reduction in Data/ Information/ Knowledge Gaps

Sediment and nutrient trapping - through MRC

studies (IKMP, ISH), countries’ monitoring, WWF assessments, and others;

Reduction of capture fisheries and social implications - through various studies and monitoring efforts (FP, World Fish, national fisheries departments, developers);

Social and livelihood impacts - through studies, surveys and database efforts (EP, ISH, BDP, others) working with national agencies and statistical offices;

Climate change risks and adaptation needs - through many assessments and studies (CCAI, FMMP, AIP, DMP) and many other regional and national entities

Reduction in Data/ Information/ Knowledge Gaps

Gaps MRCS Programme and Council Study Relevant Activities/Studies

Fisheries Literature review on (1) fish abundance and diversity and transboundary migration, (2) Irrawaddy dolphin, and (3) socio-economics and livelihoods (Completed) Report on current wild fisheries yield and fish migration (01/2015)

Social ISH 11 – Environmental and socio-economic baseline information for hydropower planning (12/2014) Social Impact Monitoring and Vulnerability Assessment (SIMVA) 2014 data collection (10/2014) Socio-economic impacts and social implications from reduced capture fisheries in LMB (Ongoing)

Sediment Multi-Media (Water, Sediment and Biota) Monitoring and Assessment of Pollutants in the Mekong River Continuous enhancement of DSF Models for erosion and sediment transport (Ongoing) Mekong Delta Study (12/2015)

Reduction in Data/ Information/ Knowledge Gaps

Gaps MRCS Programme and Council Study Relevant Activities/Studies

Ecosystem Development of stressor-response curves to capture, quantify, and document relationships among hydrologic, hydraulic, water quality, and biological indicators (12/2015)

Flood related impacts upstream of Kratie

DSF ISIS Model for Upstream of Kratie has been setup and calibrated including sediment transport

Floodplain management Formulation of strategic directions to manage existing, future, and residual flood risk in LMB (12/2015)

Climate Change Basin-wide assessment of climate change impacts on ecosystem, food security, floods, droughts, and hydropower (2013 – 2015)

Continuous Update/Enrichment of Data – MRC Programme Contributions to the Council Study

Studies Date Thematic/ Discipline Areas

2011 Assessment of Basin-Wide Development Scenarios and Ongoing Review to be completed in 2014

04/2011 Hydropower, Irrigation, Flood Protection, Domestic and Industrial Water Use

Strategic Environmental Assessment of the Mekong Mainstream

10/2010 Hydropower

Hydropower database update 06/2014 Hydropower

Land Cover Mapping 06/2014 Agriculture

Agricultural land use monitoring in LMB 10/2015 Agriculture

Irrigation database update (Thailand, Laos, and Vietnam)

02/2015 Irrigation

Continuous Update/Enrichment of Data – MRC Programme Contributions to the Council Study

Studies Date Thematic/ Discipline Areas

Agricultural groundwater use 06/2015 Agriculture, Irrigation

Guidelines for the Planning, Design, Construction and Operation of Navigation Locks, in Relation to the Development of Hydropower Projects on the Lower Mekong Mainstream

2008 Navigation

Carriage, Handling and Storage of Dangerous Goods along the Mekong River

04/2012 Navigation

Closing Gaps on Climate Change

21-Nov-14 13

2013-2014

2014

Literature review

Policy review

Compilation of experiences from other international river basins

2013

Roundtable discussions and

study visits Mekong climate change forum

2012, 2014 2014

Mekong Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

2014-2015

Country-run demonstration

projects

2011-2014

2012-2014 2013-2014 2013-2014

Climate change information,

scenarios, uncertainties

Assessment

of impacts on flow regime

Assessment of

changes in climate and hydrological

extremes

Basin-wide assessments

• Ecosystem • Food security • Floods • Droughts • Hydropower

2013-2015

Report on status of CC and adaptation in the LMB

2014 2013-2015 Database

and monitoring

system

Capacity needs assessment

2013

Capacity building activities

2013-2015

1

2 3

4 5

Closing Knowledge Gaps on Stressor – Response Relationships

Hydrology

Hydraulics

Geomorphology/Sedimentology

Fish

Water Quality

Vegetation

Invertebrates

Frogs and Reptiles

Affects livelihoods & economies

Birds

Flow is the principle driver. Changes in volume and timing will affect the system

Depths, velocities and areas inundated will change

Channel shape and sediment will change

Nutrient levels and organic content will be affected

Amount and location of aquatic and riparian plants will change

Fisheries will change

Communities change. Food species and pest species change in abundance

Non-fish fisheries will change

Bird abundances will change

Ove

rall

chan

ges

in th

e na

ture

and

func

tioni

ng o

f the

rive

r eco

syst

em

Hydrology

Hydraulics

Geomorphology/Sedimentology

Fish

Water Quality

Vegetation

Invertebrates

Frogs and Reptiles

Affects livelihoods & economies

Birds

Flow is the principle driver. Changes in volume and timing will affect the system

Depths, velocities and areas inundated will change

Channel shape and sediment will change

Nutrient levels and organic content will be affected

Amount and location of aquatic and riparian plants will change

Fisheries will change

Communities change. Food species and pest species change in abundance

Non-fish fisheries will change

Bird abundances will change

Ove

rall

chan

ges

in th

e na

ture

and

func

tioni

ng o

f the

rive

r eco

syst

em

Developing Response Curves

Black fish that inhabit deep pools

Pool depth

Extent of flooded forest

Extent of aquatic vegetation

Dry season low flows

Flood season duration

Response Curves for the Universe of Key Indicators for LMB

H1 H2 H3 H4

H5a H5b H6 H7 H8 H9

H10 H11 H12 H13 H14 H15 H16 S1 P1 Hy1 Hy2 Hy3 Hy4 Hy5

F1

F2

F3

F4

G1

G2

G3

G4

G5

G6

G7

G8

G9

I1

I2

I3

WQ11

WQ12

WQ10

WQ1

WQ2

WQ3

WQ4

WQ7

WQ8

WQ9

WQ5

WQ6

V4

V5

V6

V1

V2

V3

Knowledgebase for informed decision-making

H1 H2 H3 H4

H5a H5b H6 H7 H8 H9

H10 H11 H12 H13 H14 H15 H16 S1 P1 Hy1 Hy2 Hy3 Hy4 Hy5

F1

F2

F3

F4

G1

G2

G3

G4

G5

G6

G7

G8

G9

I1

I2

I3 WQ11 WQ12

WQ10

WQ1 WQ2 WQ3 WQ4

WQ7 WQ8 WQ9

WQ5 WQ6

V4

V5

V6

V1

V2

V3

DSS - Database Planned Developments

Assessed Impacts

Feedback Loop: Recommended Cumulative Developments to Enhance Positive Impacts and Minimize/Mitigate Negative Impacts

Hyd

rolo

gic

Asse

ssm

ent

Soci

o-Ec

onom

ic

Asse

ssm

ent

Climate Change Impacts

Decision Support System

PROJECT DESCRIPTION

SYSTEM DESCRIPTION

SCENARIO SPECIFICATION

INDICATOR SELECTION

HYDROLOGY & HYDRAULICS

RESPONSE CURVES

SCENARIO OUTCOMES

SET-UP KNOWLEDGE CAPTURE ANALYSIS

Hydrological Model

Water-Resource Model

Macro-economic Model

Present -day daily hydrology

Future flow regim

es (daily or hourly)

Water-resource options per scenario

Macro-econom

ic outcomes for scenarios

Sectorial water/energy supply for scenarios

DRIFT DSS

WQ & SEDIMENTS

CONNECTIVITY

WEIGHTS

MODEL

Sediment Model

WQ Model

WQ

and sediment

time-series data

Hydrodynamics Model

Hydraulic relationships

DSF-DSS

Social Impacts

Resource Economic Impacts

Capacity Building – Build Expert Local/Riparian Knowledge • Build better and quantitative understanding

of the stressor-response relationships in the basin at different levels/scales – Indicator Level – Ecosystem Level (e.g., Ecological Integrity) – Site/reach Level – Multiple Aggregated Spatial and Temporal

Levels – Annual Level – Planning Horizon Level (e.g.: 10-30 years)

Capacity Building – Collaborative Basin Planning and Decision Making

• Mechanism for collaborative formulation of strategic/optimal development plans across different sectors

• Minimize or mitigate transboundary and cumulative negative impacts

• Enhance benefits • Identify and recommend policy

considerations for sustainable development

Capacity Building – Towards the New Organizational Structure

• Coordination of Centralized (Secretariat) and Decentralized (National) River Basin Management Functions

Capacity Building – Scalability • Stressor-response knowledgebase can be

incrementally developed based on availability of local data, better models, and local expertise

Knowledge Base

Data Models Experts

Basin Planning

Capacity Building – Sustainability

• In addition to supporting informed decision making, stressor-response knowledgebase can also serve as a “training tool” for new local experts

Knowledge Base

Basin Planning

Capacity Building

Data Models Experts

New Experts

Marching Towards Next Stage of Implementation

• Startup Workshop/RTWG Meeting Completed

• Immediate Technical Milestones on the Critical Path

• National and Regional Stakeholder Consultations

• Engaging National Experts

Thank you