THE COST OF COASTAL ZONE THE COST OF COASTAL ZONE ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION

IN NORTHERN LEBANONIN NORTHERN LEBANON

Marseilles June 29-30, 2009

BackgroundBackground

The Lebanese Coast is characterized by:

• Drivers: growth-trade-globalization nexus, poverty, urbanization, population, tourism, etc.

• Competing uses along the narrow corridor: urbanization; tourism; industrialization; fisheries, multimodal transport corridor, conservation, etc.

• Pressures: urban sprawl and artificialization; mass tourism; industrial, urban and energy emissions and discharges; overfishing; water pollution and agricultural runoffs; ecosystem service fragilization, etc.

BackgroundBackground

• Potential climate change vulnerability and natural disaster risks• Unresolved Public Maritime Domain violation• Artificialization reached ± 45% of the total coast with a +2% growth pa (MoE)• Internal migration to the coast• Potential offshore gas extraction will require coastal infrastructure Coastal Urban Sprawl Trend 1995-2025

(as percentage of Total Coastal Area)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Greece France Italy Spain Egypt Lebanon

Selected Mediterranean Countries

(%)

1995

2025

BackgroundBackground

There is however a number of opportunities to improve the coastal management:• The land use planning (Schema Directeur) was approved by the Council of Ministers and is about to be implemented by CDR in conjunction with other line ministers

• The CDR is about to launch a CZ Action Plan

• Lebanon is bound by Regional Laws but that are not fully complied with: Barcelona Convention and the ICZM Protocol, Horizon 2020, Union for the Mediterranean, etc.

Background: What and How?Background: What and How?• The COED is a quantitative tool that helps

derive order of magnitude by: valuing environmental degradation and proposing investments to reduce environmental degradation

• The COED helps optimize the trade-offs between economic development and growth; population well being; and the preservation of the environment

• The COED helps therefore decision-makers make informed and efficient choices

Objective and Study Scope Objective and Study Scope Gauge the political economy of improving the management of the northern coastal zone by:

- Valuing the coastal environmental degradation and remedial actions

- Suggesting policy reforms

SMAP III TA and University of Balamand

Drivers and PressuresDrivers and PressuresCoastal Population: 413,000 to 567,000Density: 1,080-7,855 population/km2

Northern Population 1997-2030: +41%GDP net growth: +6% (04) +2% (05-11)Urbanization: 74%; air, solid/liquid wasteModal Transport: roads, ports and airportIndustrialization: cement, fertilizers & plasticTrade: Tripoli port serving the hinterlandTourism: 42 beaches, resorts and hotelsFisheries: unsustainable practicesExtraction: salt marshes: a dying activityAgriculture: land erosion, water qualityWatersheds: municipal effluents; runoffMountain: deforestation; terrace collapse

Aggregate Results

Ranking COED 2000 vs. CCZED 2005 Categories (% of GDP)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

National 2000 Northern Coastal Zone 2005

Degradation Category Ranking

% o

f G

DP

Solid wasteGlobal environmentSoil and wildlifeCoastal zones & cultural heritage

AirWater

Aggregate Results

CCZED Degradation, Averted and Remedial Costs by Category, 2005(US$ million)

-139-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

DegradationCost Midpoint

AvertedCost

RemedialCost

Subsidy

Category

US

$ m

illio

n

Global environment

Solid wasteSoil and wildlife

Coastal zones & cultural heritageAir

Water

Aggregate Results by Casa

Northern Coastal Casa Environmental Valuation, 2005 (US$ Million)

-141-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Deg

rada

tion

Ave

rted

Rem

edia

l

Sub

sidy

Deg

rada

tion

Ave

rted

Rem

edia

l

Sub

sidy

Deg

rada

tion

Ave

rted

Rem

edia

l

Sub

sidy

Deg

rada

tion

Ave

rted

Rem

edia

l

Sub

sidy

Deg

rada

tion

Ave

rted

Rem

edia

l

Sub

sidy

Akkar Minieh-Dennieh Al Fayhaa Koura BatrounCategory per Casa

US

$ m

illio

n

Biodiversity

Water Resources

Land Use

Regional Waters

Air

Aggregate Results by Efficiency

Maximizing Economic Welfare through Prioritized Yearly Investments, 2005(US$ Million)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Indu

stria

l Air

Bio

dive

rsity

Urb

an A

ir

Coa

stal

Con

serv

atio

nvs

. Rib

bon

Dev

elop

men

t

Qua

rry

Dis

char

gean

d E

fflue

nts

Soi

l Sal

inity

Glo

bal

Ext

erna

litie

s

Sol

id W

aste

Coa

stal

Ero

sion

Tou

rism

and

Cul

tura

lA

sset

s

Wat

er a

ndS

anita

tion

Ser

vice

s

Fis

herie

s

Indo

or A

ir

Ene

rgy

Air

Category

US

$ m

illi

on

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

B/C

Rat

io

Degradation Cost

Averted Cost

B/C

CCZED Results: AirCCZED Results: Air

Northern Coastal Environmental Degradation and Remedial Cost for Air Pollution per year: WHO Thresholds, 2005

(US$ Million)

-0.1

2-0

.13

0.07

0.16

-14

1

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

GHG GlobalExternalities

Indoor Air Industrial Air Energy Air Urban Air

Category

(US

$ M

illi

on

)

Degradation Cost

Averted Cost

Remedial Cost

Carbon Funding

Power Generation

CCZED Results: Regional CCZED Results: Regional WatersWaters

Regional Waters Costs and Subsidies: Outfall Only, 2005 (US$ Million)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Degradation Cost Averted Cost Remedial Cost SubsidyCategory

US

$ m

illio

n

Selaata LCC

Chekka Wastew ater

Batroun Wastew ater

Akkar Wastew ater

Fayhaa Wastew ater

Regional Waters Costs and Subsidies: Secondary Treatment, 2005 (US$ Million)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Degradation Cost Averted Cost Remedial Cost SubsidyCategory

US

$ m

illio

n

Selaata LCC

Chekka Wastew ater

Batroun Wastew ater

Akkar Wastew ater

Fayhaa Wastew ater

Regional Waters Costs and Subsidies: Tertiary Treatment 1/4 Cap., 2005

(US$ Million)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Degradation Cost Averted Cost Remedial Cost SubsidyCategory

US

$ m

illio

n

Selaata LCCChekka Wastew aterBatroun Wastew aterAkkar Wastew aterFayhaa Wastew ater

Regional Waters Costs and Subsidies: Tertiary Treatment Full Cap., 2005 (US$ Million)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Degradation Cost Averted Cost Remedial Cost SubsidyCategory

US

$ m

illi

on

Selaata LCCChekka Wastew aterBatroun Wastew aterAkkar Wastew aterFayhaa Wastew ater

CCZED Results: Regional CCZED Results: Regional WatersWaters

Creation of a Fisherman Cooperative in El Mina

(US$ million)

-

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

DegradationCost

Averted Cost Remedial Cost Net Fisherman(Producer)

Surplus

Net ConsumerSurplus

Category

(US

$ m

illio

n)

Degradation Cost

Averted Cost

Remedial CostNet Fisherman (P roducer) Surplus

Net Consumer Surplus

CCZED Results: LandwardCCZED Results: Landward

With/Without Coastal Erosion Project per year in 2005(US$ million)

0.1

0

2

4

6

8

Degradation Cost Averted Cost Remedial CostCategory

US

$ m

illi

on

Without Project

With Road

With Soft Structure

With Hard Structure

CCZED Results: LandwardCCZED Results: Landward

Conservation vs. Ribbon Development, 2005 (US$ Million)

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Forgone Welfare Averted Cost Remedial Cost

Category

US

$ m

illio

n

Real Estate

Hotel

Real Estate and Hotel

Akkar Coast

Lido di Dante Coast

CCZED Results: LandwardCCZED Results: Landward

Benefits Associated with Tripoli Old City Restoration Investment, 2005 (US$ Million)

0

1

2

3

4

5

Forgone Revenues Incremental Revenues Remedial CostCategory

US

$

Museilha-Hamat Quarry, 2005 (US$ million)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Degradation Cost Averted Cost Remedial CostCategory

US

$ m

illio

n Degradation Cost

Averted Cost

Remedial Cost

CCZED Results: LandwardCCZED Results: Landward

Waste Costs and Subsidies 2005 (US$ million)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Degradation Cost Averted Cost Remedial Cost SubsidyCategory

(US

$ m

illi

on

)

Batroun

Koura

Fayhaa and Qalamoun

Minieh Dennieh

Akkar

Northern Coast Waste Analysis, 2005 (US$ per capita per year)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

GlobalSustainability

SustainableManagement

Cost

DwellerAffordability

EnvironmentalBenefits

Personal Benefits

AltruisticPrinciples

Marginal Demand Curve for Waste Services

US

$

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

US

$

Waste Service Demand

Actual Waste Cost (Al Fayhaa)

Actual Collected Waste Fee (Northern Coast)

Budgeted Waste Cost (Northern Coast)

CCZED Results: Water CCZED Results: Water ResourcesResources

Water Costs, Tariffs and Subsidies per capita per year, 2005 (US$)

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

P rimarily Truck Delivery P rimarily Village Reservoir P rimarily Network Connection P rimarily WellWater Supply Curve

US

$

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Single Source

Double Sources

Triple Sources

Dweller Average Total Expenditure

Budgeted Water Tariff

Actual Water Tariff Collected

WTP to Improve Water Services per Capita per Year (US$)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Quality 24 h Provision Pressure Provision Schedule

Improvement

US

$

WTP Water

WTP to Improve Sanitation Services per Capita per year (US$)

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Sew er Netw ork Connection Open Netw ork Sew er Septic Tank Clean up

Improvement

US

$

WTP Sanitation

CCZED Results: Water CCZED Results: Water ResourcesResources

Water and Sewer Network and Hygiene Costs and Subsidies, 2005 (US$ million)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Degradation CostCV Method

Degradation CostDALY Method

Degradation CostMidpoint

Averted CostCV Method

Remedial CostCDR Investments

Subsidy Based onActual Tarif fs

Category

US

$ m

illio

n

Batroun

Fayhaa

Minieh-Dennieh

Akkar

CCZED Results: Soil SalinityCCZED Results: Soil Salinity

Northern Coastal Soil Salinity, 2005 (US$ million)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

Degradation Cost Averted Cost Remedial Cost

Category

US

$ m

illio

n

Batroun

Koura

Tripoli

Minieh-Dennieh

Akkar

CCZED Results: Policy CCZED Results: Policy ImplicationImplication

There is an important opportunity to implement some key interventions, which could not only reap significant economic gains, but also be considered climate change adaptive response Air: switching to cleaner fuel for energy and capturing carbon emissions.• Regional waters: ending the discharge of industrial and municipal effluents that are increasing the acidification of the sea: win-win• Coastal erosion: sea-level rise adaptation• Positive effects on ecosystem services

Policy and Institutional Policy and Institutional ImplicationImplicationResults will feed into the CEA

Reactivation the ICZM process and harmonization with the Schema Directeur:

• Laws (revised the ICZM draft law based on a number of good practice) and stakeholder forum

• Institutions, decentralization and governance in conjunction with the Scema Directeur implementation

• Instruments (PPP, green taxes, conservatoire du littoral, perequazione urbanistica, incentives)

• Climate change vulnerability & natural disaster risk (Adaptation, resilience and mitigation)