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8/15/2019 The Contradictions and Compatibilities of Regional Overlap: The Dynamics of Mexico's Complementary Membersh…
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T C C R O: T Dy Mx’ Cy
M NAFTA P A
S C
N. 72 | J 2016
WORKING PAPER
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2 | KFG Working Paper No. 72 | June 2016
KFG Working Paper Series
Edited by the Kolleg-Forschergruppe “T T Pw Eu”
T KFG W P S K-F y
. I x w
x x E E U.
A KFG W P KFG w www..
-@-..
Cy : KFG
E : Dy K, J W
C, S 2016: T C C R O: T Dy Mx’
Cy M NAFTA P A, KFG W P S, N. 72, J 2016,
K-F (KFG) “T T Pw E“, F Uä B.
ISSN 1868-6834 (P)
ISSN 1868-7601 (I)
T y G R F (DFG).
F Uä B
K-F
“T T Pw E:
T E U D I”
I. 26
14195 B
Gy
P: +49 (0)30- 838 57033
Fx: +49 (0)30- 838 57096
-@-.
www..
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The Contradictions and Compatibilities of Regional Overlap | 3
Fw: I H S Ck
W y S C, y , wy Fy 28, 2016.
H y KFG “T T Pw E” S Fw 2012, 2014, 2015 w w x S w KFG K
A R Aw Ax H F.
W E Uy I F -1990. A , w
w w w y w ,
E U w z, y N A F T A
(NAFTA). W KFG 2008, S w w j
w. D KFG, xy y j --
- - w E, N A,
L A w z C w
NAFTA WTO. T KFG W P
S’ .
W w S C y. A KFG wy w xy .
Tanja A. Börzel and Thomas Risse
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4 | KFG Working Paper No. 72 | June 2016
The Contradictions and Compatibilities ofRegional Overlap:
The Dynamics of Mexico’s Complementary Membershipin NAFTA and the Pacific Alliance
S Ck
w J Cu, I Du, J P, B-Ju Pk, A S, A Tu
A
W j w z (RO) j
y, w
y z w w . O , w
w RO w y , y “
” w
y -
y. T w 2012 y Mx w, y N
A F T A 1994, P A w - , C,
C, P. T zz : Wy,
w w wy N A , Mx j P
A ? Hw, w -
, w - w w A NAFTA’
? I y , w Mx
w y US “w” -
w W’ w w A? W
Mx’ L A
U S’ C’ , , y
? O zz w
w Mx’ y , , w RO.
T Au S Ck (1937-2016) w P P Ey
Uy T. H w C’
, N A
z z -
w. A w C Ry Sy
O C, y w
.
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The Contradictions and Compatibilities of Regional Overlap | 5
C
1. I: F D Mx’ R O 6
2. T T C P y M PA 7
2.1 Chile 9 2.2 Peru 9 2.3 Colombia 10 2.4 Mexico 11
3. Mx R-M F D I 14
4. I R-M: Mx’ N Sy F 18
5. T G S Mx P SB US V S-S A 21
5.1 The PA as an Instrument for Mexico’s Strategic Realignment
in Lan America 21 5.2 Mexico’s Regional Overlap as an Instrument for a US
Realignment in the Pacic 22
6. C: L S C 23
R 25
Ax 29
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6 | KFG Working Paper No. 72 | June 2016
1. Iu: Fu D M’ R O1
A y y w w, w z.
W ’ y j - , “ ” q j y w
j z (RO) j j
, w y y .
T RO – y, x –
x ’ . Ty w RO
w y y -
y y . Ty
, y w w RO y, y , -
w y w w RO’
. I , y j w w w y
; y ’ ’ w
.
W , W P zz y Mx w,
w N A y N A F-
T A (NAFTA, 1994), y w A
P A (PA, Alianza del Pacíco, 2012) w :
• , y , y ,
;
• , , q y y w
L A w U S w -
- P R x C’ y
w P.
Trade. O q wy, y w - NAFTA w U S , , w C,
Mx w w w A y q
.
1 T Fy A S, Uy T, w
w J C, I D, J P, B-J P, A S, Ay T Mx
Cy Fy 2014, w w w x x Ax 1. I
C . (2014). F C S S H R C
w C Ax 2, w Ax H
S y w B Ax 3. T x y - w y G I A G S H
q w, y T R.
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The Contradictions and Compatibilities of Regional Overlap | 7
F inten. Sy, w w w wy wy Mx, -
, - w A -
- .
Sty. Ty, y qy: w y w L
A y W’ x y w y
“w” ? W Mx , w , L A’
- qy U S’ S H
w , w , y x US - y y?
Gc. Ly, , y w
Mx’ ’ – y – w y. F ,
w U S’ w y , w Mx
wy x US W H? I
, w w y W’
F T A A ’ P C w
-w P’ R C?
T , z , y , w
- y . I w w, w w
x (Mx’ NAFTA x
- w A , P 3),
(y , P 4) ( w
Mx’ PA S- US w
w, P 5). P 2 w w
A A Mx x
- .
2. T T C P M PA
I 2013, w , C, C, P, Mx P A y
w. W 215 , y - L
A’ . W - y, PA w
w’ , $1.1 x 50 L
A’ . A , w $10,250, w ’
w y 45 L A’ (FDI).
I w, w A’ y
y w . Ty w
- -
z w z: y ,
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8 | KFG Working Paper No. 72 | June 2016
, z (N/W 2013: 8).
M - w -
y (G) (V) (G 2014: 28),
y 200 x y .
The Alianza del Pacíco w z
– - . O
, A 45 PA’ -
, 40 GDP, 31 . T y , y
w--x , y
w , . S
7,000 wy , Mx . A 55 PA’
, 60 GDP, 67 , y w US
C w -w -w y -
w w PA . B Mx’ x , w w y
A ’ , , x: -
y , PA’ x
x - - - w .
T - y A ’ y
x – y , w y
z y w y – x
w w w . H w
x – A , Mx – PA’
wy w
y .
The A T’ Di C: Trade In. A , ,
’ y , A y
x w PA , y q
j ’ - . F y
, y z PA’ A - w -.
Table 1: T P A A E F ( US$)
I
Y 2011
Mx % PA
T
C C P P
A
P () 119 56 47 17 30 213
GDP () 1,158 60 336 251 177 1922
Ex () 357 65 61 83 47 548
I () 280 75 22 43 28 373
Source: D W B 2012; OEC 2014.
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The Contradictions and Compatibilities of Regional Overlap | 9
2.1 Chile
H w w , FTA-y y 1984 j
y, C w PA j – -y – . S’ -
z wy-w xy ww,
y C-U S 2004 (G 2014: 28). A
y 30th w y z, L A -
(W E F 2009: 1) (Ix M
2013), w x w - GDP
(Ix M 2013).
E B T Cy. C , w z
y’ w 150 y (Py E N ..: 1). A S
y , x y -
(CIGI 2013), w 52 C’ x (OEC 2016) 20
GDP (T E 2013). C’ - PA
Mx’ (OEC 2016).
T w y w C PA’
S y - x Mx
- –
Mx.
I. C’ y w A -
. A y P
A L A C,
. T, C’ w
PA’ A y w y x y wy
y, w y qy -
. E S x
w Mx: q y 4,000 y w V
Pí, C’ Lz C, Mx’ W C .
2.2 Peru
O S’ W H, P “ w”
xy qy. A z - -
P O , w
x y’ . P’
w’ w y
w .
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10 | KFG Working Paper No. 72 | June 2016
E B T Cy. F w (L R 2013), P’
(W G C 2013) 21 P x, y
P x (OEC 2016). L’ x Mx
y ’ w y w, y 2.2 . B , w w A
w Mx w y , P’ - x y (OEC 2016).
I. A w PA , qy P
y’ y . I
y y GDP, y
, , y : 144 ,
P – w
q z j.
By y , P -y y w -
y . E y, y w w C
y. A y 1960, j , -
x M RO y w
, Alianza del Pacíco’ , Arco del Pacíco.
2.3 Colombia
C y : y -
z; x Vz, y
U S. T, C P A -
P R x T-P P
w w z 2015.
E B T Cy. H x-
y w w y’ ,
C x w 2007 j y w z (Ix M 2013). I
(US D S 2008), qy , ,
w w PA (OEC 2016).
I 2000, w w FARC y’ y y
Bá’ w L A y y W;
w -A Vz (M 2012: 1),
PA , y Mx’ (M 2012: 6).
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The Contradictions and Compatibilities of Regional Overlap | 11
I. Mw, y’ w x w
L A (N-P . 2013: 9). T y x y -
y y (N-P . 2013: 9)
w (N-P . 2013: 43), w yy, w (N-P . 2013: 42), w w
- (N-P . 2013: 42). I w
C’ - w w A Mx
y w y y
. M y, C’ j PA
P R’ A , y C’, y w
“” y wy . S C’ x
Mx , A’
-
x wy w - .
2.4 Mexico
W A ’ x w y
w , Mx’ y w w
w x , w w w x w w
x.
A M E w T R-T PA. F Mx Cy,
P A w y . F w
w L A C. T
w Mx’ w y 1990
N A - - . H
w x x w A -
Mx’ y wy y y N A.
M R O: Mx’ Ex I N A. Mx’
- w z w x x w
N A, A, -y
L A y. D NAFTA’ – -
y ’ y – U S’ -9/11 R
(w - y w -
w ), Mx’ x
. A , y’ , w
w y j A , C, w
w
w Mx w .
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12 | KFG Working Paper No. 72 | June 2016
W Mx y NAFTA q , y’ -
NAFTA q y. U , -
, Mx GDP w y ( -
6.7 y 1970). D Mx x w y 1994, the
expected z. I 1990, GDP’ w 2.7 (Zy/
G 2004: 2), w 1.96
y 2000 2009 (W B 2014). O w - 1994
2013, Mx’ GDP w 0.89 , w
y L A y (K 2014).
A w w , Mx x j w
. E x -NAFTA y 9/11 (1994-2000), w 12
6.5 w w j . F 1994 2014, y
Mx , j y y. I, w w
A Mx w 1993 2013 NAFTA’ ’ . R
, , w Mx’ w y 13
w 1994 2002.
Mx’ 1993 2003,
$4 y 2013 w y. Py
q, y z US Mx ,
Mx campesinos . T
y j x Mx’ w , y
w, U S .
O , Mx’ y NAFTA. N, w
z ( N A),
w (-x ), Mx -
U S’ - - 2008 w Mx’
GDP 6.5 , - x
N A y.
Tw Mx L A, I
y P A. A w “-” , Mx
x w . T - L A M y
GNP , y A y w w
. A , PA x to Asian
y C y sum of .
I , , -C W y N A
Mx y- y L
A. I x, y w y j A
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The Contradictions and Compatibilities of Regional Overlap | 13
w w y’ -
- P O
y ( Mx’ ), C.
Mx R-T T. A w
y w y z,
y w
. I , w y w -
z, w . S
w Mx’ y w PA
. T y w, Mx y w
- y x w
y .
T w Mx PA’ A
y x w x y . A
T 2 w, Mx’ x C, C, P 2.5
. S w y y w w j
.
Table 2: Mx’ Ex O PA M S S T Ex, 2012
F Mx F C F C F P
T Mx - 1.4% 1.7% 0.9%
T C 1.5% - 1.2% 2.0%
T C 0.6% 3.6% - 4.4%
T P 0.4% 2.6% 2.3% -
T 2.5% 7.6% 5.2% 7.3%
Source: T 2014: 13.
I Mx w jy , - w . Mx -
w w y x
q (G/Mz 2008: 128, 142). V Mx’
GDP, 14 , 23 x, 80
w yy w U S (G Sy G 2011: 4). Hw, US
w 2000 Mx’ x
y x (G Sy G 2011: 10). T
y w 14 Mx x,
w w w w (OEC 2016). B U S y--
, Mx y y ,
x C I- (A G 2013).
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14 | KFG Working Paper No. 72 | June 2016
T y q w Mx y x-
x PA . C -
C’ P’ w (OEC 2016, 2016),
y w Mx’ x PA w .
I. A , w qy Mx’ ,
w PA. I
y’ y , q
j Mx’ . T x qy , wy,
, , w . Mx’
, , , , y
y 1995 2003 (I 1991: 25). D x-
, wy qy y ’ --
, w y (D 2008: 94) w W
E F’ I C R (Ty 2008).
S y w x , Mx
y w NAFTA
P A w y , GDP, (T 1),
. N, A ’ y w
y w y
y jz PA’ Mx w
NAFTA .
Mx’ - - -
w x w PA .
T y w A
w Mx y yz US-y . I PA’
, w w
y . T w Y.
3. M Ru-Mk F D I
M - - x
A w ’ (FDI). W
Mx’ U S C, -
y j w
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A’ , , .2 I -’
(TNC) PA, Mx’ NAFTA x w
y . F ,
y y y FDI x . I, ’ wy
y y FDI w
x w . T - “-” w
y , y y
w y nor y,
-y .
Py , w PA -
. I 2013, PA
33 w w
w . B y y
-- Mercado Integrado Lanoamericano (MILA, T L A
I M). T L A’ x-
w w
w ’ -
(G 2014: 29; N/W 2013: 11).
F D I N D NAFTA Mx. W -
z A ’ j, y
TNC’ w
- . I , w y
Mx , x w -
NAFTA’ C 11.
T PA w z
w y -
w y PA . O Fy 10, 2014 PA -
’ , w y Sy P Fw A (Protócolo Adicional del Acuerdo Marco). I , P
A I A (PAIA, C 10 P), w y
TNC Mx
y NAFTA w w
w y . F FDI NAFTA’ C 11
A . I w Mx
y x w TNC .
2 T w w Jy, 2016 y S Mx “
y” z P A w ’ “-, y , w y -
” (B 2016).
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R q y A, Mx
NAFTA’ w w
A, PAIA’ .
Naonal Treatment (NT) and Most-Favored Naon (MFN). T NT qz -
y w
(M 2009: 46). F , MFN
. T y (
“-,” y y ) w ( “--
,” y ).3
Fair and Equitabl e Treatment (FET) and Full Protecon and Security (FPS). FET y
“ , y y, w
w ” (M 2009: 49). F w j
(M 2009: 49). O w FET ,
FPS y
, , y , (S 2012: 67). T PAIA NAFTA’
FET FPS FPS Py -
q y y w (T PA 2014: A. 10.6.2, 10.6.2).
Direct or indirect expropriaon. I w, -
x z ’ y (H 2000: 41).
I , PAIA y NAFTA y z x (
y ’ y -
’ ) H w “, q,
” (T PA 2014: A. 10.12.1; NAFTA 1994: A. 1110.1; S 2012: 17).
Financial transfers. F y j w NAFTA’ PAIA’ w-
y , ’ “, , ,
” “ q” y y (T
PA 2014: A. 10.11.1, NAFTA 1994: A. 1109.1).
Performance requirements. H w -
y, -
y, “x ” (T PA 2014: A.
10.8.1; NAFTA 1994: A. 1106.1; E/V 2006: 40). T PAIA NAFTA’
y q.
Investor-state dispute selement. T -
, w y -
3 F , -
H (2010: 1203).
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The Contradictions and Compatibilities of Regional Overlap | 17
’ y y . I
y, -
yy W B’
I C S I D (ICSID) – - Mx’ y (S 2010: 911).
I-S D P. I y L A C ’ -
y - , “-” Mx PA
– –
- (C 2013: 1). T
Mx w y I P
P I D j, w w -
y’ , , -
(C 2013: 26). T S Ey y w
(C 2013: 29).
PMéx , -
(C 2013: 29). D C y - -
- , y , w y Mx , PA’
- (C 2013: 14-17). P ,
w C’ , x w FDI.
T A
x . F,
PA w -
w y j w L A’ FDI
: Mx, C, C.4
I- y y A FDI
, y j j.5 I 2014, ’
- y w j FDI, w -
x . T 2014 w y
C, Tw, UAE (T PA 2014). T w FDI w , y q y
q.
I , N A , Mx’
y x w y -
NAFTA’ w A
4 A, 2011 = $9.8; 2012 = $12.6; Bz, 2011 = $66.7; 2012 = $65.3; C, 2011 = $22.9; 2012 = 30.3;
C, 2011 = $13.4; 2012 = $15.8; Mx 2011 = $21.5; 2012 = $12.7 ( US$ ). D US D S 2013; UNCTAD 2014.
5 C w, Mx Cy, 21 Fy 2014.
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A. T , w y -
w w
, w y N S z
y 1990. Hw, w y - S S, w Mx – W H y -
w – -
w PA . T w zz Mx’ x
w y TNC .
4. I Ru-Mk: M N Su Fuu
A NAFTA’ w y, P A ’
w ’ - z j. B, O L
w N A, w W’ --w y
y y. I, PA’ - w
y N A’ US- -, -,
-, y y . A - - -
y w y L A, y -
PA y -
y. W A xy y , y
, y “” w W
q Mx Cy w A-Q Nw Y Cy W
S 11, 2001 (9/11).
W Mx w L A ,
y w ’ y . F
US , w y y
y . S w Mx’
z w w’ . G
U S’ - “W D” L A, Mx’ w PA q w
A w x w y w
U S w w y y y
, , . Mx’
w PA, y L A
N A, z w
.
T y x w Mx w NAFTA’
-9/11 - PA’ z j. I w
w Mx y w y N A
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The Contradictions and Compatibilities of Regional Overlap | 19
PA’ , z w
. T y Mx’ w w
w ’ . T y -
wy: (1) y w y z; (2) y ’
; (3) y w ,
w ’ .
Mx’ y N A z US- -
y 9/11. T 22-P US-Mx B P A P
2002 “” w w y y j -
y w - w. T y
NAFTA’ z, - j y US w y
y y - . A ,
w US- Mx 15 w 1990 2000 3.7 -
w 2001 2011.
Mx’ US q US-Mx
w Mé I (2007), y w W
x y q y Mx (R
S/F 2013: 6). A y Mx
I’ , - ’ w w. US
y y Mé I’ C A R
Sy I, w Pña N y y F
Có’ z w w -
, w, j y (H 2013). W -
y y .
B y , A’ z w , , -
w Mx’ U S’ y . T
Mx (C 2014), PA’ -
z - w C A w (S/Z 2012). C U S 30 40 2006
(O’N MCy 2013; UNODC 2013: 39-41). T y -
y w - ,
w w L A – y C, A, Bz – w
y (Sw 2013; UNODC 2013: 41). I , PA’
z y U S’ y . Ty
w PA ’ y x
y z (E S T 2014), w
w U S Mx. T
y ,
w (I . 2013; M 2013).
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O P C Mx (L A
H T 2009), w y j
Mx Cy A Mz Lz C (C
2012; S 2013). Mx’ wy q . L y’ GDP
1.3 U S, 3.6 Mx, C, P
C, 22 C R, y A’ x (G Mj/
V R 2013: 6). T ’
(M 2014).
T- W H. D -
w C w w ,
y w w A (UNODC 2013: 49),
Mx (D P 2013: 88). D w
C Mx , C Mx
(D P 2013: 88; R 2013).
Mw G L Z w w C A, P,
C, w y w y -
w (B 2013). S P C w’
, S w y’ ,
, . T, A’
z y Mé I’ y
, , PA y y
w w y . I A A’
, Mx y N A’ -
y w y PA’ y y.
T x y Mx w PA
y w
z. Q w C R j A, Mx
w w w x , j w , x . W C, PA Mx y -
, Mx y . W y -
, Mx PA US-y y -
- x w. T
w Mx w NAFTA PA y ’
’ y . I PA ’ N
A y , Mx, w
W’ w.
A , PA
y w. A A US-
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The Contradictions and Compatibilities of Regional Overlap | 21
z w C Fy 2014,
w y w w y w
. A y y , y
j .
I , w zz w Mx y USA L
A. I NAFTA P A w
y w y N A, y US -
j C A, y w C, w
’ y (T 2014: 1-10).
5. T G S M P S B US Vu
S-Sk A
A y j
y , y ’
w . T
Mx’ -y U S’ w j.
5.1 The PA as an Instrument for Mexico’s Strategic Realignment in Lan America
A , P A Mx Cy’
w I y
L A y j Norte Americanos NAFTA. Bz’ - y
w L A’ Mx’ j M q. E
w y w y - Alianza Bolivariana (ALBA, B A
P O A), Vz’ y w
. Py ’ S- w - w y . W PA’ A -w
y w y z y , Mx’
y w y z
P. T w w
Norte Americanos NAFTA
PA’ y .
A -z w w y , Mx -
P A “ BRICS,” .6
6 C w w Mx , 2014.
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I, w BRICS (Bz, R, I, C, S A) y , PA’ -
- - y Mx’ .
5.2 Mexico’s Regional Overlap as an Instrument for a US Realignment in the Pacic
R US L A Mx’ -
y, w y - Oz A
S’ A F C’ C y -
C-I-Ay- “” C A’
-w .
T Mx y y -
W-W-II y y
y y - US . T y U
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The Contradictions and Compatibilities of Regional Overlap | 23
w PA NAFTA w US x-
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w ’ - L A.
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E x, Mx’
w .
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The Contradictions and Compatibilities of Regional Overlap | 25
R
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Appendix 1: O Ex Iw Mx Cy, 17-21 Fy 2014
N D Iu P/D
H Pz 17 Fy 2014 P w ISDS
V R
Mqz
17 Fy 2014 Sí R-
Ex
(SRE)
U-Sy L
A C
Aj Cz
Sáz
17 Fy 2014 SRE A Dy U-
Sy L A
C
Aj Áz 18 Fy 2014 U N
Aó Méx
(UNAM)
P E
D
Rú Bíz 18 Fy 2014 UNAM P C I S
Aé N
Eq D P 19 Fy 2014 UNAM D, C E
Méx-C
Y A 19 Fy 2014 I Tó
Aó Méx
(ITAM)
C D Eó
I
A L Fj F
Eq Rj S
20 Fy 2014 SRE S-ía Aé
N S-
Aé NS A 20 Fy 2014 SRE S- Aé
N
N S-
Z
20 Fy 2014 ITAM D L
D é
E I
E Rí z T 20 Fy 2014 Secretaría de
Eí (SE)
DG Aj Ió y
Eí C I-
R V
Cñ Ríz
20 Fy 2014 SE J U N-
I
S M
Dá
20 Fy 2014 SE S C-
é y ALADI U
N I
H B 21 Fy 2014 Ey C
Mx
T C
(T y)
Aw By 21 Fy 2014 Ey C
Mx
S Py A, D-
I A,
T D
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30 | KFG Working Paper No. 72 | June 2016
Appendix 2: O Ex Iw S C, 30 Jy-6 A 2014
N D Iu P/D
M Wy 30 Jy 2014 Fó C
Pí
Director
A J 30 Jy 2014 M R
Ex
O
Ew V 31 Jy 2014 M R
Ex
D, E
U D
A K 31 Jy 2014 M R
Ex
Ex-
A M 1 A 2014 M R
Ex
M (2010-14)
P F 1 A 2014 Ey C C
A
R Á Z 5 A 2014 S F
F (SOFOFA)
Cj
D A Azó 5 A 2014 I E
I, U-
C
P
Aj Fxy 6 A 2014 M R
Ex
M (2006-09)
Á F 6 A 2014 F L-
C S(FLASCO)
P
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The Contradictions and Compatibilities of Regional Overlap | 31
Appendix 3: O Ex Iw B, S 2014
N D Iu P/D
P E 12 J 2014 Ey Mx
Gy
A
J My M 12 J 2014 Ey C
Gy
A
Jé A M
E
12 J 2014 Ey P
Gy
A
S P 18 J 2014 Ey Bz
Gy
Cé ’
Aé Aâ G
A
18 J 2014 Ey Bz
Gy
C
A
D A S 18 J 2014 Ey Bz Gy
D
Jé Jq C
S
19 J 2014 Ey C R
Gy
A
Dzwz P 23 J 2014 Ey A
Gy
A
K B 25 J 2014 I L A
S, G I
G A S
(GIGA)
F D
J P G- By Cz
27 J 2014 Ey S Gy
A
D N 15 My 2014 I L A
S, GIGA
Director
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T K-Fu - Eu A E
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• T EU R I L A, A,
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• E EU R D