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The climate record of Montana over the past half-century. Consequences for water resources and opportunities for teaching practitioners how to study the whole bowl of cherries Paul Stoy [email protected] www.watershed.montana.edu/flux bit.ly/StoyGScholar

The climate record of Montana over the past half-century ... · The climate record of Montana over the past half-century. Consequences for water resources and opportunities for teaching

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Page 1: The climate record of Montana over the past half-century ... · The climate record of Montana over the past half-century. Consequences for water resources and opportunities for teaching

The climate record of Montana over the past half-century. Consequences for water resources and opportunities for teaching

practitioners how to study the whole bowl of cherries

Paul Stoy

[email protected]

www.watershed.montana.edu/flux

bit.ly/StoyGScholar

mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
http://www.watershed.montana.edu/flux
http://www.watershed.montana.edu/flux
Page 2: The climate record of Montana over the past half-century ... · The climate record of Montana over the past half-century. Consequences for water resources and opportunities for teaching

Motivation:

- Gray (2007)

IPCC WG1 AR5 just released…but what about MT?

Page 3: The climate record of Montana over the past half-century ... · The climate record of Montana over the past half-century. Consequences for water resources and opportunities for teaching

Global Energy Balance (W m-2)

-Ultimately following Kiehl and Trenberth (1997) BAMS 78:197-208.

Page 4: The climate record of Montana over the past half-century ... · The climate record of Montana over the past half-century. Consequences for water resources and opportunities for teaching

The zero-dimensional climate model (Global change is simple, regional

change is difficult)

Energy in

=

Energy out

At steady state

Page 5: The climate record of Montana over the past half-century ... · The climate record of Montana over the past half-century. Consequences for water resources and opportunities for teaching

Energy in = solar energy

E in r2Sc 1 Acircle r2

A disk of solar radiation of size πr2 hits Earth

r

Page 6: The climate record of Montana over the past half-century ... · The climate record of Montana over the past half-century. Consequences for water resources and opportunities for teaching

Energy out = planetary emittance

Stefan-Boltzmann Law

Eout A T 4

Eout 4 r2 T 4

Asphere 4 r2

Page 7: The climate record of Montana over the past half-century ... · The climate record of Montana over the past half-century. Consequences for water resources and opportunities for teaching

Planetary energy balance Energy in = Energy out

E in Eout

r2Sc 1 4 r2 T 4

Sc41 T 4

Page 8: The climate record of Montana over the past half-century ... · The climate record of Montana over the past half-century. Consequences for water resources and opportunities for teaching

Solving for T

T 4Sc 1

4

TSc 1

44

Constants σ= 5.67×10−8 J K−4 m−2 s−1 Somewhat Constants Sc=1367 W m−2 ρ=0.31

Page 9: The climate record of Montana over the past half-century ... · The climate record of Montana over the past half-century. Consequences for water resources and opportunities for teaching

The temperature of blackbody Earth

T 41367Jm 2s 1 1 0.31

4 1 5.67 10 8JK 4m 2s 1254K 19oC

The temperature of real Earth ~ 14°C

Why? The effective emissivity of Earth is less than 1. This is the greenhouse effect

Page 10: The climate record of Montana over the past half-century ... · The climate record of Montana over the past half-century. Consequences for water resources and opportunities for teaching

Solving for (effective) emissivity

Sc 1

4 T 40.6

Using T = 14 °C

Recall:

Kirchoff’s Law of Radiation

Page 11: The climate record of Montana over the past half-century ... · The climate record of Montana over the past half-century. Consequences for water resources and opportunities for teaching

Global Energy Balance (W m-2)

-Ultimately following Kiehl and Trenberth (1997) BAMS 78:197-208.

Page 12: The climate record of Montana over the past half-century ... · The climate record of Montana over the past half-century. Consequences for water resources and opportunities for teaching

Albedo, emissivity and the solar constant determine global temperature

Why? They determine the energy balance.

More GHGs.

Fewer clouds/ Less ice

.Blackbody Earth

Page 13: The climate record of Montana over the past half-century ... · The climate record of Montana over the past half-century. Consequences for water resources and opportunities for teaching

Global Change vs. Global Warming

Page 14: The climate record of Montana over the past half-century ... · The climate record of Montana over the past half-century. Consequences for water resources and opportunities for teaching

What does it all mean for water resources in MT?

Exploring the Sheffield et al. (2006) meteorological forcing dataset Daily global 0.5° data product Designed for hydrology: -Precipitation -Air temperature -Specific Humidity -Air Pressure -Wind speed -Incident shortwave radiation -Downwelling longwave radiation Combination of observational and reanalysis data products Bias correction for precipitation gage undercatch

(mm/day)

Page 15: The climate record of Montana over the past half-century ... · The climate record of Montana over the past half-century. Consequences for water resources and opportunities for teaching

Quickly grabbing ‘MT’ from a global database

Page 16: The climate record of Montana over the past half-century ... · The climate record of Montana over the past half-century. Consequences for water resources and opportunities for teaching

MT versus global temperature trends

Page 17: The climate record of Montana over the past half-century ... · The climate record of Montana over the past half-century. Consequences for water resources and opportunities for teaching

MT versus global incident shortwave trends

Page 18: The climate record of Montana over the past half-century ... · The climate record of Montana over the past half-century. Consequences for water resources and opportunities for teaching

MT versus global specific humidity trends

Page 19: The climate record of Montana over the past half-century ... · The climate record of Montana over the past half-century. Consequences for water resources and opportunities for teaching

Sheffield et al. data inputs


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