The Challenge of: Food Security

Maggie Gill

Chief Scientific Adviser

Rural Affairs and Environment

Origins of the CAP

• 1950s – food supplies could not be guaranteed

• Governments in Europe wanted to encourage increased agricultural productivity to ensure supplies of affordable food for citizens

EU surpluses over time (1991-2008) for wheat, beef, and butter

European Commission, DG AGRI, Discussion Paper December 2009 – Why do we need a CommonAgricultural Policy?

Reasons behind food price spike of 2007

• Low projected global stocks/use ratios in 2007/08

• Rapid increase in energy prices

• Significant weakening of the US $

• Export restrictions in a number of countries

Food in 2010

~ 7 billion people on earth

~ 925 million don’t get enough to eat

~ 1 billion eat diets missing in micronutrients

~ 1 billion eat considerably more than they need (obese)

2011

Can we produce enough food to feed the global population today?

Yes

Do we succeed in distributing food equitably?

No

Definition of Food Security

“Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic

access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and

healthy life.”

[FAO, World Food Summit 1996]

2050Will we be able to feed 9 billion people

sustainably and equitably in 2050?

That depends….

Question addressed by:

Foresight: The Future of Food and farming (2011)

http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/our-work/projects/current-projects/global-food-and-farming-futures

Foresight recommends action on:

• More food must be produced sustainably;

• Demand for the most resource-intensive types of food must be contained;

• Waste in all areas of food must be minimised;

• The political and economic governance of food must be improved

Drivers of future challenges

• Population increases

• Size and nature of per capita demand

• Trade issues in food and land

• Climate change

• Competition for key resources

• Changes in values and ethical stances of consumers

Future of CAP for Food Security

........needs to incentivise resource efficient food production

What do we mean by resource efficient?

Use of Feed concentrate

Million tonnes 1980 2005

Developed countries

668.7 647.4

Developing countries

239.6 602.7

World 908.4 1250.1

Food Conversion Ratio for Different Systems of Livestock Production

Human Edible Protein Output(kg input/kg output)

Total Protein Intake

Upland lamb 35.7

Upland suckler beef 26.3

‘Cereal’ beef 8.3

Milk 5.6

Pig meat 4.3

Poultry meat 3.0

(Wilkinson, 2011)

Food Conversion Ratio for Different Systems of Livestock Production

Human Edible Protein Output(kg input/kg output)

Total Protein Intake

Human Edible Intake

Upland lamb 35.7 1.6

Upland suckler beef 26.3 0.92

‘Cereal’ beef 8.3 3.0

Milk 5.6 0.71

Pig meat 4.3 2.6

Poultry meat 3.0 2.1

(Wilkinson, 2011)

3,500.00

4,500.00

5,500.00

6,500.00

7,500.00

8,500.00

9,500.00

0.00 500.00 1,000.00 1,500.00 2,000.00 2,500.00 3,000.00 3,500.00 4,000.00 4,500.00

MEAL FED/COW (KG)

MIL

K Y

IEL

D/C

OW

(L

ITR

ES

)

Variation in Technical Performance on Farm

Source: CAFRE, DARD

Significant opportunity exists to reduceemissions within current practice .

2,500L difference

Drivers of future challenges

• Population increases

• Size and nature of per capita demand

• Trade issues in food and land

• Climate change

• Competition for key resources

• Changes in values and ethical stances of consumers

Highest priority changes to consumption (Foresight report)

• reducing food waste

• reducing consumption of food and drink of low nutritional value16, i.e. fatty and sugary foods, tea, coffee and alcohol

• reducing consumption of meat and dairy products

...... Based on evidence of both health and sustainability benefits

Global trade in livestock products

Million tonnes 1980 2006

Pig 2.6 10.4

Poultry 1.5 11.1

Cattle 4.3 9.2

Sheep 0.8 1.1

Scottish meat production by type

Tonnes dry carcass wt

2000 2007

Beef 177,000 188,000

Mutton and lamb 74,000 66,000

Pigmeat 72,000 58,000

Poultry 142,000 97,000

Take away messages• Pillar 1 support post 2013 needs to

incentivise resource-efficient production

• ‘Resources’ need to include land (food security) and productivity of individual livestock (climate change)

• CAP cannot provide a solution to deal with trade-offs – we each have a responsibility