The Challenge of Emerging Risk Identification: Identification:

Building a capacity for the identification of emerging risksidentification of emerging risks

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DefinitionDefinition ofof EmergingEmerging RiskRisk

N H d SignificantNew Hazard Significant exposure

EmergingNew Emerging Risk

New Exposure

Known Hazard

Increased susceptibility

ESFA, 2007. Definition and description of « emerging risks » within the EFSA’s mandate. Statement of the Scientific Committee, 10 July 2007.

Susceptibility (example): Aging populationSusceptibility (example): Aging population

4-times

30%

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Emerging Risks Emerging Risks -- EFSA’sEFSA’s definitiondefinition

The EFSA definition is hazard based and as such is limited inscope to the short and medium term identification ofemerging risks.

The long term anticipation of emerging risks is rather basedon the identification of drivers (one does not have to beable to identify a specific hazard in order to be able toable to identify a specific hazard in order to be able toanticipate that a certain action or change in conditions maywell give rise to the emergence of a risk).

Therefore, the identification of drivers is also considered inEFSA’s identification of emerging risks.

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Anticipation TimescaleAnticipation Timescale

A ti i tiAnticipation

Early identification

Crisis preparationpreparation

Working definitions for this Working definitions for this Colloq i mColloq i mColloquiumColloquium

Handout provided in you packs !you packs !

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Overall strategy being developed at EFSAat EFSA• Relies on three steps:

– Data collection • Soft – media, grey literature• Regulatory – RASFF, trade data, compulsoryRegulatory RASFF, trade data, compulsory

monitoring/surveillance• Scientific literature• Expert judgement Panels Units Networks Stakeholders• Expert judgement – Panels, Units, Networks, Stakeholders

– Data analysis, signal detection and filtering– Exchange of informationg

• Progressive implementation– 2009-10 Food and feed– 2011: Plant Health

2012 A i l H lth– 2012: Animal Health

Emerging risks identification systemEmerging risks identification system

Data collection Data analysis, signal detection and

Exchange of informationdetection and 

filtering

Database

information

Stakeholders Consultative GroupPrimar FilterDatabase 

assessmentConsultative Group 

Emerging Risks Network and the 

Primary Filter

Data monitoring

Advisory Forum

Secondary FilterEFSA Panels, Units

Data monitoring Secondary FilterEFSA’s Panels

RecommendationMonitoring Data gathering

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Monitoring, Data gathering, risk assessment, research 

……….

Key outputs: Key outputs: http://www.efsa.europa.eu/http://www.efsa.europa.eu/http://www.efsa.europa.eu/http://www.efsa.europa.eu/

Annual reportUpdate on strategy and methodsReporting of results of monthly monitoring and case studiesp g y gInput from Network and stakeholders

Long term issues (published every 3 years from 2012)Long term issues (published every 3 years from 2012)Future issues (by Panel)Contributions from Network and stakeholders

Technical reportsOutput from WGs on methodology and data sources

Colloquium reportSummary of presentations and the discussion groups

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Key playersKey players

1. EFSA Panels and Scientific Committee –secondary filter

2. External experts – technical working groups

3 Member States EU agencies 3. Member States, EU agencies, International agencies, 3rd Countries –Emerging Risks networkEmerging Risks network

4. Stakeholders – Stakeholders Consultative group (industry, consumer organisations, NGOs)

5. EFSA staff – primary filter

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Objectives of the ColloquiumObjectives of the Colloquium

To bring together international experts fromTo bring together international experts fromdifferent sectors for an open debate with the aim ofproviding practical inputs for the developmentp g p p pof EFSA’s methodological framework for theidentification of emerging risks

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Colloquium ObjectivesColloquium Objectives

Emerging risks in food: from identification to communicationto communication

Discussion groups:g

i) Methods for the identification of emerging risks.

ii) Data types and sources for the identification of emerging risks.

iii) How to build a European network, and to communicate succesfully with risk managers on emerging risks.

iv) Drivers of change – an expert elicitation

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Grazie per la vostra attenzione!