The Canadian Census of Population: a Review in Preparation for 2016 UNECE Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses May 23, 2012

The Canadian Census of Population: a Review in

Preparation for 2016

UNECE Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses

May 23, 2012

November 1, 2011Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada2

Mandate and Scope of Review Mandate

• Study options on the methodology and ultimately deliver a recommendation to the federal government for the 2016 Census program

In scope : Four components assessed and integrated into an option analysis report • Legislative• Content determination framework• “Canadian context”• Methodology

Out of scope: detailed methods, content and costing

Legislative

Decennial Census• A requirement under the Canadian Constitution Act

Quinquennial census• Constitution Act requires quinquennial census for the

Prairie Provinces

• Statistics Act requires Canadian quinquennial census since 1970

Definition of a census of population


Framework Sequential approach to assess or build

census/NHS methodology options incl. content


Census Program outputs •Relevance (information needs* and timeliness)•Quality (accuracy, interpretability, coherence)

Canadian context •Respondent burden•Privacy

Statcan considerations•Costs/efficiencies•Operational factors•Data Quality•Incidence on other Statcan programs

* External and internal needs

Consultation on uses Feedback sought from

• Federal, provincial, territorial and municipal governments• Aboriginal organizations• Selected direct end-users and secondary distributors and

'umbrella' org. in non-profit and business sectors

Uses/data requirements• Statutory, program and other requirements• Topics (by order of priority)• Level of geography / Sub-populations• Trends• Multivariate


Methodology


Necessary conditions Status Comment

1. Public awareness and cooperation

Acceptably high Confirmed in 2011

2. Geographic infrastructure Yes

3. Stable political and socially secure environment

Yes

4. High-level of literacy for self completion

Yes

5. Legal and administrative framework

Yes

Approach 1 – traditional census

• A collection of data from all households on individuals, at a specific point-in-time, constitutes the spine

• May involve some sampling for characteristics• The collection modes may vary; some data may be replaced by administrative

data

Methodology


Necessary conditions Status Comment1. Legal basis to use administrative data,

linked by identification numbersPartially Existence of S-13 of Statistics Act, but

tedious process

2. Public understanding and approval Unknown There has been public reaction to 2000 Government longitudinal file, Privacy Commissioner has also expressed concerns

3. Unique PINs No Social Insurance Number is not universal and its usage is limited by legislation

4. Minimally, population, dwelling and business registers

No No pop, Address Register is good but incomplete, Business Register is good but designed for business surveys

5. Incentives for the population to register and change their address

No

6. Recording of dates of changes or events Partially Limited to births and deaths

Approach 2 – census employing existing administrative registers

• A set of data first collected for administrative purposes and linked together constitutes the spine

• Can be supplemented by surveys (census or sample)

Methodology


Necessary conditions Status Comment

1. Multi-year program of comprehensive planning, development and testing

Not done Experience of France and the USA valuable

2. Agreement of census stakeholders Unknown Experience of France and the USA valuable

3. Geographic infrastructure Yes

4. Several years of data required for small areas – must start in 2012

Unlikely For data to be available in 2017

5. Different form of funding Not done Funding would need to be developed

6. Skilled staff Partially StatCan has the staff, but in part busy with census/NHS at the present time

Approach 3 – census employing continuous measurements

• A collection of data from the individuals, where all or a part of it is collected on a continuous basis

• May involve some sampling• The collection modes may vary; some data may be replaced by administrative data


A traditional census is the only possible option for 2016

The presence or absence of a voluntary component remains an open question until the data qualities studies are completed for the National Household Survey.

Conclusion


Such a review requires a dedicated team (separate from production teams)

Requires key knowledgeable resources Organisational buy-in is important – senior

management governance External validation is desirable Highlighted the importance of international

networks

Lessons Learned

October 27, 2011Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada11

Project contacts

For more information, please contact:

Julie Trépanier or Marc Hamel

613-951-9437 [email protected] [email protected]

Documents

The Canadian Census of Population: a Review in Preparation for 2016 UNECE Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses May 23, 2012