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The Bubble March 2009

The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities

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Page 1: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities

The Bubble

March 2009

Page 2: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities

Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities.

$773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008.

Bottom: Asset-backed securities.

$1,253 billion 2006 peak. $40 billion mid-2008.

FT, Nov 13, 2008 “The Great Bubble Inflates”

1996 20002003

20062008

Page 3: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 4: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 5: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 6: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 7: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 8: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 9: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 10: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 11: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 12: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 13: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 14: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 15: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 16: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 17: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities

Greenspan’s bubblesOctober 11, 2008, 9:08 amKrugman blog, NYTimes

Page 18: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 19: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 20: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 21: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 22: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities

Paul Krugman | New York Times BlogJanuary 11, 2009, 4:25 pm: Specifics

…some of us worry that the Obama team isn’t showing the audacity we hoped for…

Page 23: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 24: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities

Job Creation Time Series

Page 25: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 26: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities

Corporate Bond Yields

Page 27: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 28: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 29: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 30: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities

Changes in Manufacturing

Page 31: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 32: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 33: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 34: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 35: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 36: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 37: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 38: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities

Mortgage Rates

Page 39: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities
Page 40: The Bubble March 2009. Top: Non-agency “shadow bank” mortgage-backed securities. $773 billion 2006 peak. $153 billion mid-2008. Bottom: Asset-backed securities

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