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The avoided impacts of climate change on crop production
Tom OsborneThanks to:Simon Gosling, Gillian Fraser, Helen Greatrex, Tim Wheeler, Nigel Arnell
Emissions scenarios
CO2 concentration
Local change in climate
Future crop yields
Global warming
Regional crop production
A1B, and AVOID mitigation scenarios
Pattern-scaling based upon GCMsecham5, hadcm3, ipsl, cgcm31,ccsm30
GLAM crop model at 0.5 resolutionMaize, soybean, wheat
MAGICC
@ 2030,2040,2050,…
∑(YieldGLAM x Areaobserved)
Global-GLAM crop model• Original GLAM developed by Challinor et al (2004).
Process-based crop growth and development with daily timestep.
• Crops: soybean, maize, wheat.• Climate: 0.5 resolution using CRU based climate data.
Daily weather generator.• Extent: suitable grid cells and sowing date determined
by separate algorithm.• Varieties: 3 for maize and soybean, 1 for wheat• Rain-fed simulation only. No irrigation.
1961-90 baseline: soybean
Wheat
Business-as-usual impact of climate change by 2050 on wheat production
Percentage of 2050 “business-as-usual” impact avoided with scenario: A1B-2016-5-L
CO2 fertilisation alters effectiveness (relative and absolute) of AVOID scenarios
Maize
Soybean
Conclusions• Wheat
– Effect of mitigation varies regionally– CO2 fertilisation influences effectiveness of mitigation
– Interaction with climate change
• Maize– Relative effectiveness of scenarios unaffected by GCM or
adaptation (as represented here)
• Soybean– Mitigation effectiveness insensitive to CO2 and adaptation– Positive CC impacts (S Asia) reduced by mitigation
Thank you
1961-90 baseline: maize
Inter-annual variability
Spatial variability
1961-90 baseline: wheat