The Art of Winning War1

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THE ART OF WINNING WARS WITH ANALYTIC

HIERARCHYCAL PROCESS (AHP) APPROACH

Tawi1

1Computer Science

STMIK Eresha, Jakarta, 12740

Telp : (021) 7989705, Fax : (021) 7989314

E-mail :[email protected]

Abstract

This essay will discuss mainly about technique to make decision in war fields for commander-in-

chief. The technique used in this essay is Analytic Hierarchycal Process (AHP). This essay is made

because winning a war is a thing that we must do after we decide to participate in a war. Failure to

win a war can consume our resources and the worse is we can get ourselves killed in a batte field. We

cannot participate in a war just because we hate others. We must participate in a war with deep

consideration. This is because war can consume human live and death people will not easily become

alive again but hate can easily become love. Resources we spend to participate in a war will not come

back to us easily after we spend it in a war .

Keywords: AHP, Wars, Resources, Troops

In our live, we probably can have not only smooth conditions but also bad conditions.

We can achieve things we want to but plenty of time we fail to get the things we want to get.

At the time we want to achieve a thing we can achieve it easily but some times plenty of the

efforts involve conflicts not only psychological conflicts but also physical conflicts. To solve

physical conflicts sometimes we need to hire troops to get involved in wars. There are plenty

things we need to consider to win wars. There are several techniques to make decisions to

win wars and one of them is Analytic Hierarchycal Process (AHP). In my opinion, to win

wars by using AHP technique, we need to manage some things such as: the quantity of our

resources, the number of troops we have, the quality of troops we have, the quantity of our

weapons, the quality of our weapons, the quantity of our commanders, the quality of our

commanders, the quality of information we can obtain, and quantity of information we canobtain.
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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not enough troops to handle this situation? Will the situation similar with East Timor happen

again in the future? Indonesia is lucky that it has no war although in more extreme situation,

Kutai probably refuse to give some of their resources to Republic of Indonesia if Republic of

Indonesia has no power to control them. If Indonesia had wars, Indonesia would get two sides

to defeat, Kutai Empire and the enemy. If we believe the word of a man that this word is said

by poor people only then what will the government do to handle Kutai case? Will they let

Kutai to be an empire and being seperated from the Republic of Indonesia because with no

troops no thing can be done by the government? Another good example is the shot incident in

Papua. This can happen probably because they thought Jakarta is getting weaker. At least the

rise of Kutai probably boost their moral to shot. Unfortunately, they were shotting innocent

people otherwise this can be said as the other provinces are getting more courage to create

problems. With weaker government, will they become unmanageable?

Failure to understand the importance of troops in a nation can make the people to

reject taxes and this can make the government lost some sources of resources to pay troops to

win wars. Bakrie for example, if the government has not enough power, they wont have the

ability to enforce taxes. What will they do to enforce taxes? Will they act like Zeus with to

say, Hey you get out of my cloud and expect them to do the words the government say?

What if he say, No? Will the government kneel down in front of Bakrie and will Bakrie paytaxes after the governments staffs kneel down in front of him? Wha t if they fail to make

Bakrie to pay taxes although they have kneeled down in front of him? Will the government

has nothing to do if Bakrie reject to pay taxes?

We can have a very difficult situation if we reject to sell cheap in order to be able to

hire and manage our troops to win wars. This is because the more expensive price we want

other people to pay at the time they are purchasing our commodity, the more people can

reject to purchase our commodity. With out sufficient resources, how can we pay our troops

salary? Will this not affect our troops fidelity? Will our troops not leave us at the time we

cannot pay their salary? Will they not fight against us if we become unable to pay their salary

because they thought it was their right to get salary? If they rebel and fight against us because

they are demanding their salary and we are in the middle of wars then we will have two

enemy: our own troops and the enemy we are trying to eliminate. The Sriwijaya empire can

be a good example at the time we are asking some examples about the condition if we reject

to sell cheap. They were asking the people to pay expensively at the time the people use their


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harbours. They try to block the people so they could not pass Sriwijaya territory. Some how

they failed and perished as we can see until I write this essay, they cannot regain their

territory or at least do things like the things Kutai was doing.

The third things we need to manage is the quality of our troops in order to win wars.

Can you imagine if our enemy can kill our troops with only a bullet but we need to kill them

with three bullets because we are unable to shot accurately? This can make us to waste our

chance to kill our enemy meanwhile they dont waste their chance and able to do that. This

can make one enemy can kill at least three of our troops because we need three bullets before

we can make an accurate shot to kill our enemy although in reality it does not easy to tell the

time we will make an accurate shot to kill the enemy.

The quality of our troops include our troops martial art skills. Troops with better

martial art skills can survive more compare with troops with not enough martial art skills.

This is because troops with sufficient martial art skills can avoid the enemy to kill them and

at the same time can kill their enemy. Troops with better martial art skills can touch their

enemy and at the same time avoid their enemy to touch them. How can we kill without even

being able to touch? With medicine we need to touch others inner body with medicine either.

Ideally, the quality of our troops include their intelligent to anticipate enemys

strategies and traps. With no ability to do that, they can fall in their enemy traps and they can

be killed by their enemy. With not enough ability, they can step in to bomb and get

themselves killed if the bomb exploded. With no ability to do that, their enemy can easily lie

to them to go to some places and leave their position although they must stay to defend their

position and the problem is they can easily trust their enemy. With not enough intelligent,

they cannot make a good decision to do or not to do some things.

The next thing we need to manage is the quantity of our weapon in order to win wars.

How can we effectively kill our enemy without weapons? With not sufficient quantity of

weapons, it is possible that some of our troops use weapon and some others use bare hand to

fight the enemy. If the enemy use a good shield, can we easily kill our enemy with bare hand?

If our enemy use a good shield, can we easily brake the shield to kill our enemy?


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It is not easy to take a decision to choose between weapons and individual qualities.

This is because with individual qualities, you can still fight although you have no weapon.

With individual quality, you can make traps or some things alike. Although your enemy

probably can find out your traps, they need better subordinate to help them to find it if they

have no sufficient individual quality themselves. Your enemy can start to sell slowly if they

have no sufficient individual quality and they only have limited resources especially if they

are selling it more expensive compare with the market price and this can make them to get

defeated by you. To rely at your subordinate mean you need to pay them adequately because

if your subordinate leave you, you will have no ability to fight your enemy.

With weapons we need no individual quality because the things you need is you can

shoot with out to make any wrong shoots. What ever your enemies do, they will have to

avoid those bullets. If they are stubborn and try to penetrate in to your place with out

adequate protection, they probably will die. To rely at weapons means we must not let our

enemy to be able to take over our weapons, we must not let our enemy to stop to make us to

be able to keep trying to make ourselves to have the most sophisticated weapons, and we

must not allow our enemy to able to make us unable to control our weapons. Being able to

make us to be unable to control our weapon, being able to stop to make us able to keep trying

to make ourselves to have the most sophisticated weapons or being able to take over ourweapons can make them to be able to defeat us.

The fifth things we need to manage is the quality of our weapon in order to win wars.

With good weapons, we can kill our enemy with one strike. Without a good weapon, we

probably need to kill our enemy with many strikes. If the enemy can kill us in one strike and

we can only kill enemy with many strikes, can we survive more especially if our martial art

skills is not sufficient? The Japanese empire surrender to the allied forces after two boms

strike Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The Japanese emperor had nothing to say but to surrender.

This showed the importance of weapons in wars.

The sixth things to manage is the quantity of our commander-in-chiefs in order to win

wars. This is important because humans can handle limited situation. With simultanous

situations occur, he or she need to choose things to do and the more things he or she need to

handle, the faster action he need to do. People can only react in as fast as one second


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maximumly. This is excluding the time to think. If a person need to handle things that exceed

his or her ability, can he or she effectively handle a thing?

The seventh thing to manage is our commander-in-chiefs quality if we want to win

wars. With good commanders, we can hope the commander to be able to manage team well

to win wars. With good commander, the commander can instruct the troops to avoid enemy s

traps. With good commander, we can hope he or she can choose effective method to attack or

to defend. With good commander we can minimize the need of intelligent troops because the

commander can command the troops to avoid traps and know the enemys strategies to avoid

to make wrong moves.

The eigth thing we need to manage is the quality of information we can obtain to win

wars. This is because knowledge are not coming from the God. We need to obtain good

information from a forecasting technique, from a mind reading technique and from at least a

good scout of us. We must be able to make sure that we are gathering good information

because inaccurate information can lead to inaccurate actions from us. We cannot respond

well to any conditions with wrong information.

In order to obtain good information, we need good scouts. The more skill our scoutshave the better information they can obtain. The worse skill our scouts have the worse

information they can obtain. The worst condition are they probably can make themselves

killed or captured by our enemy.

If we want to use AHP to make decision about strategies to take, we can rate the

quantity of our resources, the number of troops we have, the quality of troops we have, the

quantity of our weapons, the quality of our weapons, the quantity of our commanders, the

quality of our commanders, the quality of information we can obtain, and quantity of

information we can obtain criteria. The more important the criteria is, the higher point will be

assigned to the criteria. As an example, if we use 1-10 to rate these criteria, we will assign 10

to resources, 6 to number of troops, 7 to the quality of troops,

Information we need to gather in wars to win wars are the conditions of enemy troops,

the battle field condition, and other threats from third parties or from other parts of enemy

troops. This is usually important because with out knowing the condition of our enemy we


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can become unable to decide the correct time to attact or defend. This condition can make

enemy to be able to defeat us. Battle field information can make us to decide the strategies we

are going to use to fight. In a naval battle, we will need to use galleons or similar equipments.

In an air combat, we will use F-16, Sukhoi or similar aeroplanes., In land, we will use tanks,

lances, sword, arrows, guns, et cetera. Failure to know the battle field condition can make us

to use wrong equipments to fight. Can you use lances, gun, or sword in a naval battle without

any galleons? Other threats or other parts of enemy troops need to be worry because they can

attack us at the time we are attacking our target. If we are not guarding our home base, we

will need to win or we will be homeless or will have no place to go if all of our bases are

taken over by our enemy or if our base adjacent to our enemy base is taken over by others

and no place we can go because our enemy is surrounding us.

The quality of information we can obtain usually is better compare with the quantity

of information we can obtain. This is because the amount of information will not give any

benefits to us if the information are wrong, inaccurate, or out of date. These not good enough

information can lead to wrong decision we can make. The more inaccurate or the more out of

date the information are, the worse decision we can make.

The last thing we must be able to manage in this essay is the quantity of informationto win wars. As mentioned in previous paragraph, quantity of information are not better

compare with the quality of the information we can get. That is the reason some time we

cannot trade quality to get quantity. We need to maintain a good information level to be able

to make good decisions. We can say these information are necessary to support our decisions.

To process information to win wars, we have some techniques such as Fuzzy

inference system, analytic hierarchycal process, et cetera. These are not including several

other techniques not mentioned in this essay. These techniques have their own uniqueness.

The use of these techniques depend at the situation we are having. Different situations

probably require different techniques.

One of the technique to process information to win wars is analytical hierarchycal

process (AHP) which was introduced by Thomas Satty and was using comparisons to make

decissions. We need to compare things after we judge how necessary do we need the things.

The higher the priority is the higher score the things will have. The process to multiply the


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1,00 0,25 0,76 0,63 0,37

4,00 1,00 3,00 2,50 1,49

1,32 0,33 1,00 0,83 0,50

1,60 0,40 1,20 1,00 0,60

2,68 0,67 2,00 1,68 1,00

5,00 1,25 3,77 3,14 1,87

19,95 4,99 15,02 12,51 7,46

6,63 1,66 4,99 4,16 2,48

7,99 2,00 6,02 5,01 2,99

13,37 3,34 10,06 8,38 5,00

Result of thesum of a row

NormalizationResult

15,03 0,09

59,93 0,38

19,91 0,13

24,01 0,15

40,15 0,25

159,03 1,00

2

5,00 1,25 3,77 3,14 1,87

19,95 4,99 15,02 12,51 7,46

6,63 1,66 4,99 4,16 2,48

7,99 2,00 6,02 5,01 2,99

13,37 3,34 10,06 8,38 5,00

125,02 31,27 94,15 78,42 46,76

498,58 124,71 375,47 312,74 186,49

165,75 41,46 124,82 103,97 62,00

199,77 49,97 150,44 125,31 74,72

333,99 83,54 251,52 209,50 124,92


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Result of the

sum of a row

Normalization

Result

375,63 0,09

1.497,98 0,38

497,99 0,13

600,21 0,15

1.003,47 0,25

3.975,27 1,00

Max = 5

CI = 0

R = 0

0

0

0

0

0

Weight Eigen Value

75,13 5

299,60 5

99,60 5

120,04 5

200,69 5

2.2.Side Effect

Things need to be discussed:

a. Number Needed to Harm (NNH)

NNH is a number that show side effect. Some medicines NNH:

1. Diarrhea MedicineDiarrhea medicine drugs list that is analysed:

a). Loperamide: 34 (Hypothesis);

b). Oralit: 20 (Hypothesis);

c). Amerole: 34 (Hypothesis);

d). Andikap: 20 (Hypothesis);

e). Collidium: 25 (Hypothesis);

Eigen Value


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1. Diarrhea DrugsDiarrhea drugs analysed:

a). Loperamide: 2,35 (Holten, 2003: p. 946);

b). Oralit: 1 (Hypothesis)

c). Amerole: 4 (Hypothesis)

d). Andikap: 5 (Hypothesis)

e). Collidium: 7 (Hypothesis)

Table 5

Diarrhea Medicine Quality Hypothesis Decisions Table

Number Medicine Name Drugs Quality AHP Matrix

1. Loperamide 5 0,2

2. Oralit 1 1

3. Amerole 4 0,25

4. Andikap 5 0,2

5. Collidium 7 0,14

Table 6

Diarrhea Medicine Quality Degree of Decisions Table

Medicine

Quality

Loperamide Oralit Amerole Andikap Colidium

Loperamide 1,00 0,20 0,80 1,00 1,43

Oralit 5,00 1,00 4,00 5,00 7,14

Amerole 1,25 0,25 1,00 1,25 1,79

Andikap 1,00 0,20 0,80 1,00 1,42

Colidium 0,70 0,14 0,56 0,70 1,00

2

=

1,00 0,20 0,80 1,00 1,43

5,00 1,00 4,00 5,00 7,14

1,25 0,25 1,00 1,25 1,79

1,00 0,20 0,80 1,00 1,42

0,7 0,14 0,56 0,70 1,00


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The Art of Winning War1